2015 POOL C

Started by lastguyoffthebench, October 15, 2015, 02:54:55 PM

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Wisco21

Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 05, 2015, 11:59:59 AM
Is Macalester a lock? I know only 1 loss and all but I don't know much about them asides from that...any info on them?

I imagine they are from the eyeball test. Solid SOS and RvR and good record. Would be in in my books but just curious of how good they actually are that's all.

Watched them multiple times this season. They're the kind of team that you can never really write off, they have the uncanny ability to create something out of nothing. The MIAC was down this year, which I believe hurts them. However the regular season unbeaten record is difficult to ignore. RvR of 2-0-1 and SOS sitting at  .561 is about par.

I am in agreement with D3 Scout, however I am willing to wager that Loras sees their conference tournament through. I haven't really been sold on Dubuque, they give teams trouble and have had a decent season. However, the DuHawks at the Rock Bowl on a Saturday night under the lights for some hardware... They're really up against it.

Ron Boerger

Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 05, 2015, 11:01:17 AM

Strikingly similar to mine, but I'll have my 3.0 updates upon the conclusion of Sunday's results.

Wheaton's loss certainly puts North Park outside the bubble, if they were even in it before.

Those on the bubble are praying MSOE, Lycoming, Loras, Trinity, MIT, E-town all take care of business.

I cannot see E-town or Trinity losing.

Must point out that Trinity (TX) has already lost 1-3 at Colorado College (elevation 6,035') this season, and will face them there again in the SCAC tourney finals if both win out (as they should - tho #3 seed UDallas seems to give Colorado fits (0-0-2)).   CC's level of play *may* have dropped a touch late in the year, but they did take Trinity to OT Oct. 11 in San Antonio before falling 0-1.  Trinity's also not the offensive juggernaut they have been in seasons past, winning several 1-0 matches on penalties in regulation.     

Shooter McGavin

Camden stands 0 chance of getting in NCAA unless they win the AQ.

NCAA will not allow an 8 loss team or 9 blemish team in the tournament with an at-large bid. It's make or break for Camden in the NJAC final and I think they can win it...but they would be stealing a bid from someone else if they do.

Shooter McGavin

Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 05, 2015, 11:35:16 AM

POOL C LOCKS  (6 teams)
Amherst
Washington U
Wheaton (Ill)
Macalester

FM/Haverford loser
Carnegie Mellon


POOL C Should Be Safe (6-7 teams)
Tufts
Kenyon (if lose AQ)
Middlebury (if reach NESCAC final)

Brockport St
Lycoming (if lose AQ)

Rutgers-Camden (if lose AQ)
Plattsburgh St

POOL C Bubble (4-5 teams) No particular order
RPI
Thomas More
Rowan
Dickinson
(OWU if lose AQ)
----------------------
TBA (upset high seed)
TBA (upset high seed)

Outside bubble/likely done
DePauw
Stockton
Chicago (win over Wash U could see them bump up)
Denison
Pacific Lutheran
North Park
UW-W
ECSU
Cortland St
CNU
Loser of Kings/Eastern

There's 18 and if other teams like Loras somehow slip up then unbold one of the "outside bubble teams"

dontshootthegoose

Thank god for UWW having that Pool B to fall back onto.

TennesseeJed

Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 05, 2015, 01:19:28 PM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 05, 2015, 11:35:16 AM

POOL C LOCKS  (6 teams)
Amherst
Washington U
Wheaton (Ill)
Macalester

FM/Haverford loser
Carnegie Mellon


POOL C Should Be Safe (6-7 teams)
Tufts
Kenyon (if lose AQ)
Middlebury (if reach NESCAC final)

Brockport St
Lycoming (if lose AQ)

Rutgers-Camden (if lose AQ)
Plattsburgh St

POOL C Bubble (4-5 teams) No particular order
RPI
Thomas More
Rowan
Dickinson
(OWU if lose AQ)
----------------------
TBA (upset high seed)
TBA (upset high seed)

Outside bubble/likely done
DePauw
Stockton
Chicago (win over Wash U could see them bump up)
Denison
Pacific Lutheran
North Park
UW-W
ECSU
Cortland St
CNU
Loser of Kings/Eastern

There's 18 and if other teams like Loras somehow slip up then unbold one of the "outside bubble teams"

My prediction for the GL region is that Kenyon and OWU are equally safe and that the loser of the NCAC final will likely get GL region Pool C bids along with CMU, whether they lose to CWRU or not.  I think DePauw and TMC will drop below Kenyon and OWU next week, based on RvRs, incremental directions in relative SoS's, changes in Win%'s, etc.

lastguyoffthebench

#126
Team A: .868 win percentage / 2-1-1 RvR / .518 SOS
Team B: .656 win percentage / 4-3-1 RvR / .623 SOS
Team C: .614 win percentage / 5-4-1 RvR / .625 SOS
Team D: .694 win percentage / 2-1-0 RvR / .564 SOS
Team E: .842 win percengage / 1-2-0 RvR / .550 SOS
Team F: .750 win percentage / 2-2-2 RvR / .555 SOS

Rank your preference.  Which three would you take?

jknezek

Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 06, 2015, 09:27:36 AM
Team A: .868 win percentage / 2-1-1 RvR / .518 SOS
Team B: .656 win percentage / 4-3-1 RvR / .623 SOS
Team C: .614 win percentage / 5-4-1 RvR / .610 SOS
Team D: .694 win percentage / 2-1-0 RvR / .564 SOS
Team E: .842 win percengage / 1-2-0 RvR / .550 SOS
Team F: .750 win percentage / 2-2-2 RvR / .555 SOS

Rank your preference.  Which three would you take?
F, A, D. All have .500 or better vs RvR, respectable SOS, and decent to great win percentages. I eliminate C for the win percentage, yes the rest of the stats are great, but at some point you simply have to win versus your schedule, E for the sub .500 RvR which tempers the great win percentage, and B is my next team up. They kind of get shafted. OK win percentage, very good RvR, very good RvR. Everything is good, nothing is excellent. You could convince me to switch D and B given the actual resumes...

Midwest Soccer

Great question

My 2 cents (probably wrong):

1.) F
2.) D
3.) B

E, C, and A I feel for.

A, the SOS is too low.

C, was sort of a toss up with B but I gave B the edge for tougher SOS and 4 wins and above .500 RvR vs a tougher SOS.

E, Great win percentage, middle of the road SOS, but 1 ranked win and below .500 record RvR...

I'm sure all 3 would be worthy teams of bids as well...

lastguyoffthebench

Quote from: jknezek on November 06, 2015, 09:37:50 AM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 06, 2015, 09:27:36 AM
Team A: .868 win percentage / 2-1-1 RvR / .518 SOS
Team B: .656 win percentage / 4-3-1 RvR / .623 SOS
Team C: .614 win percentage / 5-4-1 RvR / .610 SOS
Team D: .694 win percentage / 2-1-0 RvR / .564 SOS
Team E: .842 win percengage / 1-2-0 RvR / .550 SOS
Team F: .750 win percentage / 2-2-2 RvR / .555 SOS

Rank your preference.  Which three would you take?
F, A, D. All have .500 or better vs RvR, respectable SOS, and decent to great win percentages. I eliminate C for the win percentage, yes the rest of the stats are great, but at some point you simply have to win versus your schedule, E for the sub .500 RvR which tempers the great win percentage, and B is my next team up. They kind of get shafted. OK win percentage, very good RvR, very good RvR. Everything is good, nothing is excellent. You could convince me to switch D and B given the actual resumes...

I'd have to go with eliminating team E first for 1-2 RvR and middle of the road SOS.   Team D 2nd, Team A 3rd.  Leaving Teams B, F, C.    Really a toss up for me with teams C and A.  Could see the committee going either way.

jknezek

And what we've managed to do is show that regardless of what the committee does, some of us will think it was wrong...

Mr.Right

Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 05, 2015, 01:13:25 PM
Camden stands 0 chance of getting in NCAA unless they win the AQ.

NCAA will not allow an 8 loss team or 9 blemish team in the tournament with an at-large bid. It's make or break for Camden in the NJAC final and I think they can win it...but they would be stealing a bid from someone else if they do.



Might want to check the D1 brackets every year especially in the ACC..

lastguyoffthebench


I think 5 of the 6 teams listed are safe.  And you're correct.  I don't believe an 8 loss team has ever received an at-large bid...


Mr.Right

I know for a fact there have been at LEAST 7 loss ACC teams get a bid the past 5-10 years on more than one occasion. Not sure about 8 but 7 for sure.

Mid-Atlantic Fan

Quote from: Mr.Right on November 06, 2015, 10:11:21 AM
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 05, 2015, 01:13:25 PM
Camden stands 0 chance of getting in NCAA unless they win the AQ.

NCAA will not allow an 8 loss team or 9 blemish team in the tournament with an at-large bid. It's make or break for Camden in the NJAC final and I think they can win it...but they would be stealing a bid from someone else if they do.



Might want to check the D1 brackets every year especially in the ACC..

I think he means in D3 soccer. UCLA is top 20 this year with an 8-7-1 record...D1 is different than D3 in that regard I guess.