Conference Preseason Coaches Polls

Started by Kuiper, August 18, 2023, 11:37:29 AM

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Kuiper

#30
Quote from: EnmoreCat on August 29, 2023, 07:33:28 PM
What's the back-testing like on these polls?

I've never seen anyone run that down on a large scale and it obviously differs from conference to conference, but it tends to be generally accurate at the top and bottom (+ or - a few spots), but not so much in the middle, which is often a crapshoot anyway.  What differentiates it from the Massey preseason rankings is that coaches in the conference are actually making a judgment about this season based on who they know is returning and who is coming in, as well as taking into account coaching changes etc.

As an example, here is the ODAC 2022 preseason poll compared to how they finished the regular season

ODAC Men's Soccer Preseason Coaches Poll                                  How they Actually Finished in Regular Season 2022
August 26, 2022
1    Washington and Lee University (11)    143 pts                                             2
2    University of Lynchburg (2)    133 pts                                                     1
3    Roanoke College    120 pts                                                                     4
4    Randolph-Macon College    110 pts                                                             6
5    Virginia Wesleyan University    89 pts                                                       3
6    Hampden-Sydney College    88 pts                                                               8
7    Randolph College    86 pts                                                                       9
8    Averett University    62 pts                                                                       10
9    Bridgewater College    55 pts                                                                       5
10    Shenandoah University    53 pts                                                               12
11    Guilford College    32 pts                                                                               7
12    Ferrum College    26 pts                                                                               11
13    Eastern Mennonite University    17 pts                                                       13

Ejay

Quote from: Kuiper on August 29, 2023, 05:27:43 PM
Landmark

https://gowilkesu.com/news/2023/8/28/mens-soccer-wilkes-mens-soccer-voted-ninth-in-inaugural-landmark-preseason-poll.aspx

1.  Catholic 81 (9)
2.  Scranton 66 (1)
3.  Elizabethtown 62
4.  Lycoming 61
5.  Drew 52
6.  Goucher 36
7.  Moravian 33
8.  Juniata 24
9.  Wilkes 22
10.  Susquehanna 13

This one is interesting to me as Lycoming and Wilkes are in their first year of the Landmark. Lycoming was 10-4-7 last year and lost in the conference final to Stevens on PKs. They graduated only 3 seniors and are returning 33/35 of their goals. They may be better than 4th. Drew was 12-2-4 last year and are returning almost their entire offense including three all-conference and two all-region players. Frankly I'm surprised they're 5th, but I guess that's why you play the games.

Gray Fox

Quote from: Kuiper on August 29, 2023, 06:34:12 PM
Quote from: Gray Fox on August 29, 2023, 06:25:50 PM
SCIAC:

2023 SCIAC Football Preseason Poll
1. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, 34 points (4 first-place votes)
2. Chapman, 26 pts (1)
3. Pomona-Pitzer, 24 pts (1)
4. Redlands, 24 pts
5. California Lutheran, 11 pts
6. La Verne, 7 pts

Ironically, that might not be that far off for the SCIAC Men's Soccer coaches poll this year too (which wasn't out yet last I checked).  I suspect Cal Tech and Whittier will slot in around La Verne, but Redlands might gripe about being that low, as would Cal Lutheran.  Oxy would too, but we could chalk it up to the curse of Jack Kemp for dropping football.  ;)
Sorry.  I was about to delete my post but at least it was worth something.
Fierce When Roused

College Soccer Observer

Quote from: Kuiper on August 29, 2023, 07:07:23 PM
No polls for NESCAC, UAA, Centennial, SCIAC, and Northwest.  I probably missed a few others or they aren't out either.  Some conferences may hold these until the last minute as part of a publicity blitz in advance of the first game on Friday or their coaches hold their votes as long as possible before submitting them.

What's interesting is that the coaches polls reveal the conferences where the coaches believe that one team is clearly dominant (e.g., MAC Commonwealth and MAC Freedom where Messiah and Stevens got all the first place votes, respectively) and where the coaches consider the league completely wide open (e.g., the SAA with half the teams receiving first place votes and only two points separate the top four spots)

I do not ever remember seeing a NESCAC preseason poll.  I do not think they do them.

Kuiper

Quote from: College Soccer Observer on August 29, 2023, 11:43:19 PM
Quote from: Kuiper on August 29, 2023, 07:07:23 PM
No polls for NESCAC, UAA, Centennial, SCIAC, and Northwest.  I probably missed a few others or they aren't out either.  Some conferences may hold these until the last minute as part of a publicity blitz in advance of the first game on Friday or their coaches hold their votes as long as possible before submitting them.

What's interesting is that the coaches polls reveal the conferences where the coaches believe that one team is clearly dominant (e.g., MAC Commonwealth and MAC Freedom where Messiah and Stevens got all the first place votes, respectively) and where the coaches consider the league completely wide open (e.g., the SAA with half the teams receiving first place votes and only two points separate the top four spots)

I do not ever remember seeing a NESCAC preseason poll.  I do not think they do them.

I don't think the UAA does either.  The Centennial, SCIAC and Northwest Conferences have in the past.  I was just identifying conferences that weren't mentioned in the thread so people wouldn't think I had forgotten they existed or forgotten to look them up.

Hopkins92

CC has the women's preseason poll out today, so the men's should be up soon.

Hopkins92

#36
https://centennial.org/sports/msoc

1. Johns Hopkins (8)          79
2. Franklin & Marshall (1)   72
3. Muhlenberg (1)       58
4. Gettysburg   57
5. Washington College   56
6. Dickinson   40
7. Swarthmore   33
8T. Haverford   21
8T. McDaniel   21
10. Ursinus   13

Gray Fox

The real SCIAC poll.

2023 SCIAC Men's Soccer Preseason Poll
1. Occidental, 65 points (3 first-place votes)
2. Redlands, 63 pts (1)
3. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, 62 pts (1)
4. California Lutheran, 56 pts (1)
5. Chapman, 55 pts (2)
6. Pomona-Pitzer, 44 pts (1)
7. La Verne, 27 pts
8. Caltech, 17 pts
9. Whittier, 16 pts

https://thesciac.org/news/2023/8/23/tigers-picked-to-win-first-title-in-mens-soccer-preseason-poll.aspx
Fierce When Roused

jfreddys

Quote from: Gray Fox on August 30, 2023, 02:25:46 PM
The real SCIAC poll.

2023 SCIAC Men's Soccer Preseason Poll
1. Occidental, 65 points (3 first-place votes)
2. Redlands, 63 pts (1)
3. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, 62 pts (1)
4. California Lutheran, 56 pts (1)
5. Chapman, 55 pts (2)
6. Pomona-Pitzer, 44 pts (1)
7. La Verne, 27 pts
8. Caltech, 17 pts
9. Whittier, 16 pts

https://thesciac.org/news/2023/8/23/tigers-picked-to-win-first-title-in-mens-soccer-preseason-poll.aspx


Enjoyed seeing how the voting played out.   Looks like a lot of coaches voted for themselves to win league.   Love that attitude.

Kuiper

Northwest Conference coaches poll is out

https://nwcsports.com/news/2023/8/30/lutes-tabbed-as-favorites-for-2023-mens-soccer-season.aspx

(Points awarded on an 8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 basis. Coaches could not vote for their own teams; numbers in parentheses indicate first place votes)

Team.  Pts.        2022 NWC Finish

Pacific Lutheran (5).  61    2nd
Willamette (4).         60.    1st
Whitman.                 43.    3rd
Whitworth.               40.    5th
Linfield                    33.     6th
Puget Sound.            33.    4th
Pacific.                     25.    8th
George Fox.              21.     7th
Lewis & Clark.           8



-

Kuiper

Cross-posting this from the Go WEST thread:

I thought it would be interesting to compare preseason polls with season-ending standings (pre-conference tournament ) to see how closely the Region X coaches pegged it for the three leagues that have concluded their regular seasons

Conclusion - you should pay attention to these preseason polls because the coaches were uncannily accurate for the most part!

SCIAC:

The coaches predicted it almost exactly, with only Cal Tech and La Verne flipping spots:

Preseason Poll

2023 SCIAC Men's Soccer Preseason Poll
1. Occidental, 65 points (3 first-place votes)
2. Redlands, 63 pts (1)
3. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, 62 pts (1)
4. California Lutheran, 56 pts (1)
5. Chapman, 55 pts (2)
6. Pomona-Pitzer, 44 pts (1)
7. La Verne, 27 pts
8. Caltech, 17 pts
9. Whittier, 16 pts

Actual Finish

1.  Occidental
2.  Redlands
3.  Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
4.  Cal Lutheran
5.  Chapman
6.  Pomona-Pitzer
7.  Cal Tech
8.  La Verne
9.  Whittier

SCAC:

Not quite as accurate as in the SCIAC, but they got the tournament teams right (albeit out of order) and the non-tournament teams exactly right.

Preseason Poll

1.   University of St. Thomas (7)   79
2.   Trinity University (2)   74
3.   Colorado College   59
4.   Southwestern University   57
5.   Texas Lutheran University    45
6.   Austin College   26
7.   Schreiner University   25
8.   Centenary College   21
9.   University of Dallas   19

Actual Finish

1. Colorado College
2. Trinity
3. Southwestern
4. St. Thomas
5. Texas Lutheran
6. Austin
7. Schreiner
8. Centenary
9. Dallas

ASC:

They got the tournament teams right (albeit flipping UTD and Hardin-Simmons) and got the rest right except for Howard Payne, which over-performed.

2023 ASC Preseason Men's Soccer Poll
Team (First Place Votes)   Points   2022 Record (ASC)
1. Mary Hardin-Baylor (10)   152   13-3-2 (7-1-1)
2. Concordia Texas (4)   138   10-3-4 (6-0-3)
3. UT Dallas (1)   117   9-6-4 (4-3-2)
4. Hardin-Simmons (1)   115   6-8-4 (5-4)
5. Ozarks (1)   81   10-5-5 (3-3-3)
6. LeTourneau   72   7-7-6 (3-4-2)
7. East Texas Baptist   58   7-7-3 (2-5-2)
8. McMurry (1)   48   5-9-3 (3-5-1)
9. Howard Payne   31   6-7-4 (3-4-2)
$ - Sul Ross State   -   0-11-4 (0-7-2)

Actual Finish

1. Mary Hardin-Baylor
2. Concordia
3. Hardin-Simons
4. UT Dallas
5. Ozarks
6. Howard Payne
7. LeTourneau
8. McMurry
9. East Texas Baptist
10. Sul Ross State

EnmoreCat


soccerpapa

2023 Preseason CCIW Men's Soccer Coaches' Poll
1. North Park (5)     61
2. North Central (4)     59
3. Wheaton     47
4. Carthage     43
5. Carroll     33
6. Elmhurst     30
7. Illinois Wesleyan     27
T8. Augustana     12
T8. Millikin     12

2023 ACTUAL
1. North Central
2. Wheaton
3. North Park
4. Carthage
5. Elmhurst
6. Illinois Wesleyan
7. Carroll
8. Millikan
9. Augustana

jknezek

Not sure the ODAC coaches did real well with this. Some big misses, but it's 13 teams and I think this gets a lot harder as the number of teams goes up. First two are right, but I suspect those were the easy ones. Roanoke was off by a couple. A slow non-conf start, the big win against W&L, but that was really it. Feel like this team underperformed, especially watching them play at W&L.

Big miss on Shenandoah, who is still alive in the Tournament. Not too hard to believe as a miss. The Hornets were awful last year and this is the first time they've won more than 3 conference games since joining the ODAC. Huge miss on EMU. Predicted to finish last, finished 5th. A solid miss on Guilford. This was a team expected to trend up and it didn't happen. Just a terrible season.

First round of the ODAC tournament all the chalk won by multiple goals and by shutout. So Shenandoah takes Roanoke's predicted place in the semis, but otherwise the coaches did get 3 of the final 4.

ODAC Preseason:

1) W&L
2) Lynchburg
3) Roanoke
4) Va Wesleyan
5) H-SC
6) R-MC
7) Bridgewater
8) Averett
9) Guilford
10) Shenandoah
11) Randolph
12) Ferrum
13) EMU


ODAC Actual:

1) W&L 8-1-1
2) Lynchburg 10-2-1
3) Va Wes 6-2-2
4) Shenandoah 5-2-3
5) EMU 4-3-3
6) Roanoke 5-5
7) HSC 3-3-4
8) Averett 3-3-4
9) RMC 3-4-3
10) Bridgewater 3-4-3
11) Randolph 2-3-5
12) Ferrum 1-9
13) Guilford 0-9-1


FCGrizzliesGrad

Things didn't go great in the HCAC. The eventual champ was picked tied for 4th. Half the teams were multiple spots different while just 3 teams were correctly placed.

2023 HCAC MEN'S SOCCER PRESEASON POLL
1.   Rose-Hulman (7)       78
2.   Hanover (2)              71
3.   Transylvania (1)        70
t4.   Anderson                 50
t4.   Manchester              50
­6.   Bluffton                    42
7.   Franklin                    28
8.   Defiance                   23
9.   Earlham                    21
10.   Mount St. Joseph     17

Actual
1) Manchester          6-0-3
2) Hanover               6-2-1
3) Rose-Hulman        6-2-1
4) Transylvania         4-3-2
5) Defiance              3-2-4
6) Bluffton               3-2-4
7) Anderson             3-5-1
8) Earlham               2-5-2
9) Franklin  :(          2-5-2
10) Mount St Joseph 1-8-0
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem