BB: NWC: Northwest Conference

Started by Tezbaseball, December 30, 2005, 06:53:46 PM

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Purple Heys

Quote from: Jim Dixon on June 18, 2019, 12:25:19 PM
Linfield Hire:

https://www.d3baseball.com/notables/2019/06/spencer-hireded-at-linfield

2nd West Region HC that is a former Red Raider backstop...a trend?  I wonder if they will schedule Caltech now.
You can't leave me....all the plants will die.

Purple Heys

Quote from: Ralph Turner on June 17, 2019, 01:28:36 PM
The West Region is the strongest in the country and deserveds more than 1 Pool C bid each every year.

Fixed it for you.   ;D
You can't leave me....all the plants will die.

Jim Dixon

One way to increase the number of Pool C bids is for the west region teams to stray outside the region.  The number of teams from other regions that visit a west coast team is far greater than those in the west going out of region. 

Purple Heys

Quote from: Jim Dixon on June 19, 2019, 12:20:23 PM
One way to increase the number of Pool C bids is for the west region teams to stray outside the region.  The number of teams from other regions that visit a west coast team is far greater than those in the west going out of region.

The weather is here, wish your were beautiful.   8-)
You can't leave me....all the plants will die.

Purple Heys

Quote from: Jim Dixon on June 19, 2019, 12:20:23 PM
One way to increase the number of Pool C bids is for the west region teams to stray outside the region.  The number of teams from other regions that visit a west coast team is far greater than those in the west going out of region.

And again!

The swallow may fly south with the sun or the house martin or the plover may seek warmer climes in winter, yet these are not strangers to our land?
You can't leave me....all the plants will die.

Jim Dixon

If you think that SOS is a key factor in getting a playoff bid, the West teams's best SOS ranking over the last five years is 26, similar to the NY region.  The West is dead last in number of teams with teams with an SOS ranked 20th or higher (2).  You should expect the west to get the same number of Pool C bids and they have: NY (5 Pool C bids in last five years), West (7)

Purple Heys

Quote from: Jim Dixon on June 20, 2019, 04:00:16 PM
If you think that SOS is a key factor in getting a playoff bid, the West teams's best SOS ranking over the last five years is 26, similar to the NY region.  The West is dead last in number of teams with teams with an SOS ranked 20th or higher (2).  You should expect the west to get the same number of Pool C bids and they have: NY (5 Pool C bids in last five years), West (7)

If I, for one, did think that, after reading your post I would no longer think that.  Are you making the case that SOS appears to be useless as a benchmarking stat for playoff selection?  Because the last 5 D3 champs were either from the New York Region (1) or the West Region (4).  Please clarify.
You can't leave me....all the plants will die.

Jim Dixon

Alas PH you are comparing apples and oranges.  SOS is a key factor in selecting at-large bids and is a strong predictor on who gets a bid. Once the field is selected, it is not nearly as important in determining the national champion.  Chapman is the only winner in the last five years that had an SOS in the top 10. Only one national champion in the last ten years won with an at-large bid (Texas-Tyler). Winning your conference is a much better predictor in determining who wins the WS, than SOS.  Winning your conference bid is a lousy predictor as no teams in this category has ever been given an at-large bid ;)

Purple Heys

Quote from: Jim Dixon on June 21, 2019, 12:52:44 PM
Alas PH you are comparing apples and oranges.  SOS is a key factor in selecting at-large bids and is a strong predictor on who gets a bid. Once the field is selected, it is not nearly as important in determining the national champion.  Chapman is the only winner in the last five years that had an SOS in the top 10. Only one national champion in the last ten years won with an at-large bid (Texas-Tyler). Winning your conference is a much better predictor in determining who wins the WS, than SOS.  Winning your conference bid is a lousy predictor as no teams in this category has ever been given an at-large bid ;)

"Alas" I'm not looking to set a comparison...more like trying to debunk the SOS as a worthwhile metric.  I understood your post as suggesting that West Region teams should go to build SOS, presumably because by beating all those "better" teams (that otherwise end up with better SOS), the West Region would then achieve the SOS rating needed to qualify - not win, mind you in the playoffs...because 4 of the last 5 WS champs actually had the temerity to have low SOS.

What I am trying to do is learn why SOS continues to be used, when it may well have no correlation to getting the best at large teams.  I suppose somewhere some wonk says, "we gotta have a way to compare teams mathematically and objectively".  Which seems reasonable...but baseball defies that SOS comparison and is unlike football and basketball when one considers that football plays once a week with generally static lineups, and basketball plays multiple games but also plays with static lineups.  I don't think St. John's is going to start their left handed cornerbacks against the righty QB from Carlton and their righty corners against St. Olaf's lefty.

Baseball lineups are not static and teams play several games a week.  A different pitcher every game, a week where a team has a league series on the weekend but must play a non-league on Thursday so they staff pitch Freshmen and Sophs...SOS is a lazy man's stat for baseball.  But I read that "SOS is a key factor in selecting at large bids".  Choosing at large participants for playoff should be looking to include the best remaining teams.  Based on who's winning the WS, SOS does not appear to serve that effort very well.
You can't leave me....all the plants will die.

Purple Heys

Ya know, this just occurred to me...this thread would never be happening on the NWC page if Linfield had a good team this past season, because the NWC board would be overrun by Wildcat fans.

;D
You can't leave me....all the plants will die.

Jim Dixon

I think SOS is used to try to find a metric that a team can control to some extent. Now scheduling Linfield last season was a nod to a better SOS but the Wildcats did not cooperate.

Bearcat Press

#1226
Big news at Willamette: head coach Aaron Swick is stepping down to take over at Wooster after 15 years, 316 wins, and a Northwest Conference title in 2018.

https://twitter.com/CoachSwick/status/1691140000317145088
"It's a slippery slope from the penthouse to the outhouse." - Mark Speckman

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Bearcat Press on August 14, 2023, 02:36:52 PM
Big news at Willamette: head coach Aaron Swick is stepping down to take over at Wooster after 17 years, 316 wins, and a Northwest Conference title in 2018.

https://twitter.com/CoachSwick/status/1691140000317145088
Does Coach Swick have ties to Wooster?

Bearcat Press

Quote from: Ralph Turner on August 14, 2023, 03:53:24 PM
Quote from: Bearcat Press on August 14, 2023, 02:36:52 PM
Big news at Willamette: head coach Aaron Swick is stepping down to take over at Wooster after 17 years, 316 wins, and a Northwest Conference title in 2018.

https://twitter.com/CoachSwick/status/1691140000317145088
Does Coach Swick have ties to Wooster?

None that I'm aware of.  He's a UC-Berkeley alum, and his first job was as Willamette's pitching coach back in 2006 and 2007. Then he was the pitching coach at South Dakota State for a year before coming back to Salem as WU's head coach.
"It's a slippery slope from the penthouse to the outhouse." - Mark Speckman

Bearcat Press

Quote from: Bearcat Press on August 14, 2023, 02:36:52 PM
Big news at Willamette: head coach Aaron Swick is stepping down to take over at Wooster after 15 years, 316 wins, and a Northwest Conference title in 2018.

https://twitter.com/CoachSwick/status/1691140000317145088

And the Bearcats have their new coach: Mike Coduta, most recently associate head coach at Earlham College.

https://wubearcats.com/sports/bsb/2023-24/releases/20230926n390b6
"It's a slippery slope from the penthouse to the outhouse." - Mark Speckman