Pool C

Started by usee, October 28, 2008, 12:25:35 PM

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D O.C.

Any of you guys try to handicap the greyhounds off-track?

redswarm81

#31
Updated thru Nov 1st. - Let's update (and correct, where necessary) the records, see if that makes this mud any clearer:

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 30, 2008, 11:34:04 PM
Let's assume that the top-ranked team from each Pool A conference wins the AQ.

EAST REGION
1. Cortland State 8-0 8-0  NJAC
2. RPI 7-0 7-0 LL 
3. Ithaca 6-1 7-1  E8
4. Montclair State 7-1 7-1  NJAC Pool C  Beat WConn, 38-14; hosts Rowan
5. Rowan 7-1 7-1   NJAC  Pool C Beat Kean 30-22; goes to Montclair St
6. Hartwick 6-1 6-1  E8 Pool C  Beat Norwich 42-12, goes to Springfield
7. Worcester Polytech 6-2 6-2  LL  Pool C  LOST at Hobart 14-31, hosts Susquehanna
8. Hobart 6-1 6-1  LL  Pool C  Beat WPI 31-14; goes to RPI
9. Plymouth State 6-1 8-1  NEFC Pool A
10. Husson 6-0 6-2  Pool B  Open date; goes to Becker

(MAC is missing.)

NORTH REGION
1. Mount Union 7-0 8-0  Pool A OAC
2. North Central (Ill.) 8-0 8-0  Pool A CCIW
3. Otterbein 8-0 8-0  Pool C OAC  Beat Marietta 55-0; hosts MUC
4. Wabash 7-0 8-0  NCAC Pool A
5. Trine 8-0 8-0  MIAA Pool A
6. Case Western Reserve 7-0 8-0  Pool B  Beat Chicago 38-24; hosts Carnegie Mellon
7. Wheaton (Ill.) 6-2 6-2 Pool C CCIW  LOST at Elmhurst 23-37; hosts IWU
8. Franklin 6-1 7-1  Pool A HCAC
9. Adrian 6-1 7-1    Pool C MIAA  Beat Alma 45-24;  hosts Trine
10. Rose-Hulman 7-2 7-2  Pool C HCAC  LOST at Franklin 7-42; hosts Anderson

(Northern Athletics Conference is missing.)


SOUTH REGION
1. Muhlenberg 8-0 8-0  CC Pool A
2. Millsaps 7-0 8-0   SCAC Pool A
3. Washington and Jefferson 6-1 7-1   Pres AC  Pool A  LOST to TMC 29-35; hosts Bethany
4. Trinity (Texas) 6-1 7-1  Pool C SCAC  LOST to Millsaps 27-56; hosts Centre
5. Mary Hardin-Baylor 6-0 7-1  ASC Pool A
6. Hardin-Simmons 8-1 8-1  Pool C ASC  Beat TLU 52-6; hosts McMurry
7. Huntingdon 7-0 8-0  Pool B  Beat Principia 76-0; hosts Hampden-Sydney
8. Catholic 6-1 7-1  ODAC Pool A
9. Salisbury 3-2 7-2   Pool B  LOST to Wesley, 21-36; open date
10. Thomas More 7-1 7-1 Pool C Pres AC  Beat W&J 35-29; Clinched

(USA  South is missing.)

WEST REGION
1. Willamette 7-0 8-0  NWC  Pool A
2. Occidental 7-0 7-0   SCIAC  Pool A
3. Monmouth 9-0 9-0  MWC  Pool A
4. UW-Stevens Point 4-1 7-1   WIAC  Pool A
5. UW-Whitewater 6-1 7-1  Pool C WIAC  Beat UWEC 40-10
6. Cal Lutheran 5-2 5-2   Pool C SCIAC  LOST to Oxy 21-24; host LaVerne
7. Redlands 6-1 6-1  Pool C SCIAC  Beat P-P 52-14; hosts Chapman
8. Northwestern (Minn.) 6-1 8-1   Pool B  Beat Crown 44-7
9. Concordia-Moorhead 4-3 5-3   MIAC  Pool A LOST to St Olaf's 25-28; hosts Carleton.  MIAC HAS 4-WAY Tie for 1st
10. St. John's 5-2 6-2   Pool C MIAC  Open date; hosts Augsburg

(Iowa IAC is missing.)

Thinking out loud: if current leading Pool A candidates win out, the possible remaining 1-loss Pool C candidates dwindle:

Rowan/Montclair St. winner;
Hartwick;
Otterbein;
W&J;
Trinity;
Hardin-Simmons;
UW-Whitewater;
Redlands;

These eight 1-loss Pool C candidates would have to contend with spillover Pool B candidates, whose best possible records look like this:

CWRU 9-0 10-0;
Huntingdon 9-0 10-0/LaGrange 8-1 9-1;
Northwestern (MN) 7-1 8-1;
Husson 7-0 7-2;
Update: I forgot to include Wesley 5-1 8-1 as another (highly likely) Pool B candidate.

Then there are hidden Regional 1-loss teams that might come into play, such as St. John Fisher.

I think Ralph's methodology remains valid: the top Pool C candidate in each Region is the only "safe" Pool C candidate in that region.
Irritating SAT-lagging Union undergrads and alums since 1977

Ralph Turner

My 6 Pool C's, barring any upsets are:

Rowan/Montclair St. winner;
Hartwick;
Otterbein;
Hardin-Simmons;
UW-Whitewater,

then Redlands vs W&J.

Ralph Turner

Ex-major, a Millsaps fan, has determined that Millsaps has a 1 game lead over Trinity with one game to play.  (Birmingham-Southern is in the second year of provisional status and its games do not count in SCAC play this season.)

Therefore, Millsaps has clinched the Pool A bid from the SCAC.

redswarm81

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 02, 2008, 06:58:14 PM
My 6 Pool C's, barring any upsets are:

Rowan/Montclair St. winner;
Hartwick;
Otterbein;
Hardin-Simmons;
UW-Whitewater,

then Redlands vs W&J.

So in your crystal ball, d3football.com no. 16 Trinity gets left out.  I wonder how high that ranking is historically, for the first team left outside looking in?  I remember feeling real bad for 9-1 Johns Hopkins in 2003, they were ranked no. 24 when they got left out in the cold.

I could wait for you to update your Pool B prognostications on that board, but. . . . do you see Wesley getting a Pool B bid ahead of Northwestern (MN)?  I'm assuming Salisbury is out of Pool B contention, if CWRU and Northwestern and Wesley win out.
Irritating SAT-lagging Union undergrads and alums since 1977

Ralph Turner

#35
Quote from: redswarm81 on November 02, 2008, 08:26:56 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 02, 2008, 06:58:14 PM
My 6 Pool C's, barring any upsets are:

Rowan/Montclair St. winner;
Hartwick;
Otterbein;
Hardin-Simmons;
UW-Whitewater,

then Redlands vs W&J.

So in your crystal ball, d3football.com no. 16 Trinity gets left out.  I wonder how high that ranking is historically, for the first team left outside looking in?  I remember feeling real bad for 9-1 Johns Hopkins in 2003, they were ranked no. 24 when they got left out in the cold.

I could wait for you to update your Pool B prognostications on that board, but. . . . do you see Wesley getting a Pool B bid ahead of Northwestern (MN)?  I'm assuming Salisbury is out of Pool B contention, if CWRU and Northwestern and Wesley win out.
I don't think that Trinity gets in.

The OWP/OOWP works against us in the ASC and SCAC.  We have no group of teams against whom we can build our stats.  In the ASC, HSU played two non-conference in-region games, winning over Linfield and UW-Lacrosse.  ETBU lost at St John's.  Louisiana College beat Rhodes.  Texas Lutheran beat SRSU in a non-conference game and lost to Trinity.  Mississippi College lost to Millsaps.  SRSU--see TLU game.  McMurry lost to Trinity and to Austin College.  The conference went 3-4 out of the ASC.  That gives a net negative OWP/OOWP. 

In the SCAC:

Trinity beat McMurry and TLU.
Austin College beat McMurry.  (10th game was NAIA Southwestern Assemblies TX.)
Millsaps beat Miss.College.  (10th game was crosstown rival NAIA Belhaven.)
DePauw beat Anderson (4-4) and still has the Wabash game.
Centre beat Hanover (1-6) and lost to Maryville TN (4-4).
Sewanee lost to Wash & Lee. (The Westminster MO win was not in-region.)
Rhodes lost to LaCollege and beat Wash. StL (5-3/3-1 in-region).
Colorado College lost to Oxy and only played 9 games.

The SCAC went 7-3 which is a little better, but 5 of those games were against ASC opponents.  That is not much in the way of outside opponents to boost the OWP/OOWP.




For completeness...

UMHB played NAIA's Southern Nazarene (OK) and Southern Oregon.
ETBU plays NAIA Azusa Pacific on Saturday.
HPU played NAIA's Bacone and Texas College.
Louisiana College played NAIA Bacone OK.
Sul Ross State played NAIA Southwestern Assemblies.
Mississippi College played NAIA Cumberlands KY.

HSC85

All of your Pool C teams don't include a possible 9 - 1 Hampden Sydney team.  They have a very difficult game at Huntingdon but if they win their OWP and OOWP would be higher tham many of the teams that you are saying would get a Pool C bid.  They have alot of work to do but at this point they should be in the conversation.  They are 6-1 in region with only loss to 7-1 Catholic.

voice

If both UW-Stevens Point and UW-Whitewater make the playoffs, what are the chances that one team will stay in the West and the other shifted to the North Region?

Pat Coleman

Seems more likely the West will be importing teams rather than exporting teams.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

redswarm81

Quote from: HSC85 on November 02, 2008, 09:35:38 PM
All of your Pool C teams don't include a possible 9 - 1 Hampden Sydney team.  They have a very difficult game at Huntingdon but if they win their OWP and OOWP would be higher tham many of the teams that you are saying would get a Pool C bid.  They have alot of work to do but at this point they should be in the conversation.  They are 6-1 in region with only loss to 7-1 Catholic.

Ooh, more chaos, with Pool B spillover possibilities.  Cool.  If Huntingdon loses to Hampden-Sydney and then beats LaGrange, it would leave CWRU and Husson as the only Regional unbeatens in Pool B.

Building on Ralph's recent Pool B statement--that updated Regional Rankings are necessary for any sort of reliable forecasting--I get the impression that Hampden-Sydney has a steep hill to climb, on account of their not yet being ranked.

But as of now, it looks as if Hampden-Sydney is a potential 1-loss Pool C candidate.
Irritating SAT-lagging Union undergrads and alums since 1977

bluenote

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 02, 2008, 09:40:48 PM
Seems more likely the West will be importing teams rather than exporting teams.

Linfield would be glad to host a game.....

Bill McCabe

#41
Ralph, UMHB had a pretty high ranking when they were left out in 2003.  Top 10 I think.  d3football had them #4.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Bill McCabe on November 03, 2008, 11:07:57 AM
Ralph, UMHB had a pretty high ranking when they were left out in 2003.  Top 10 I think.  d3football had them #4.
Week #11 Top 25 D3football.com poll at the end of the regular season.

UMHB is #11.   :)

The Forgotten Man

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 03, 2008, 11:17:12 AM

Week #11 Top 25 D3football.com poll at the end of the regular season.

UMHB is #11.   :)

Dang, no love in the poll for either Huntingdon or LaGrange. :o Hope we show y'all we deserve some sugar  :-*

Good luck to HC this weekend.
"The soldier, above all others, prays for peace, for it is he who must suffer and bear the deepest wounds and scars of war."
Douglas MacArthur, General, U.S. Army, (1880-1964)

CobberFvr

Quote from: redswarm81 on November 02, 2008, 06:31:15 PM

EAST REGION
1. Cortland State 8-0 8-0  NJAC
2. RPI 7-0 7-0 LL 
3. Ithaca 6-1 7-1  E8
4. Montclair State 7-1 7-1  NJAC Pool C  Beat WConn, 38-14; hosts Rowan
5. Rowan 7-1 7-1   NJAC  Pool C Beat Kean 30-22; goes to Montclair St
6. Hartwick 6-1 6-1  E8 Pool C  Beat Norwich 42-12, goes to Springfield
7. Worcester Polytech 6-2 6-2  LL  Pool C  LOST at Hobart 14-31, hosts Susquehanna
8. Hobart 6-1 6-1  LL  Pool C  Beat WPI 31-14; goes to RPI
9. Plymouth State 6-1 8-1  NEFC Pool A
10. Husson 6-0 6-2  Pool B  Open date; goes to Becker

(MAC is missing.)

NORTH REGION
1. Mount Union 7-0 8-0  Pool A OAC
2. North Central (Ill.) 8-0 8-0  Pool A CCIW
3. Otterbein 8-0 8-0  Pool C OAC  Beat Marietta 55-0; hosts MUC
4. Wabash 7-0 8-0  NCAC Pool A
5. Trine 8-0 8-0  MIAA Pool A
6. Case Western Reserve 7-0 8-0  Pool B  Beat Chicago 38-24; hosts Carnegie Mellon
7. Wheaton (Ill.) 6-2 6-2 Pool C CCIW  LOST at Elmhurst 23-37; hosts IWU
8. Franklin 6-1 7-1  Pool A HCAC
9. Adrian 6-1 7-1    Pool C MIAA  Beat Alma 45-24;  hosts Trine
10. Rose-Hulman 7-2 7-2  Pool C HCAC  LOST at Franklin 7-42; hosts Anderson

(Northern Athletics Conference is missing.)


SOUTH REGION
1. Muhlenberg 8-0 8-0  CC Pool A
2. Millsaps 7-0 8-0   SCAC Pool A
3. Washington and Jefferson 6-1 7-1   Pres AC  Pool A  LOST to TMC 29-35; hosts Bethany
4. Trinity (Texas) 6-1 7-1  Pool C SCAC  LOST to Millsaps 27-56; hosts Centre
5. Mary Hardin-Baylor 6-0 7-1  ASC Pool A
6. Hardin-Simmons 8-1 8-1  Pool C ASC  Beat TLU 52-6; hosts McMurry
7. Huntingdon 7-0 8-0  Pool B  Beat Principia 76-0; hosts Hampden-Sydney
8. Catholic 6-1 7-1  ODAC Pool A
9. Salisbury 3-2 7-2   Pool B  LOST to Wesley, 21-36; open date
10. Thomas More 7-1 7-1 Pool C Pres AC  Beat W&J 35-29; Clinched

(USA  South is missing.)

WEST REGION
1. Willamette 7-0 8-0  NWC  Pool A
2. Occidental 7-0 7-0   SCIAC  Pool A
3. Monmouth 9-0 9-0  MWC  Pool A
4. UW-Stevens Point 4-1 7-1   WIAC  Pool A
5. UW-Whitewater 6-1 7-1  Pool C WIAC  Beat UWEC 40-10
6. Cal Lutheran 5-2 5-2   Pool C SCIAC  LOST to Oxy 21-24; host LaVerne
7. Redlands 6-1 6-1  Pool C SCIAC  Beat P-P 52-14; hosts Chapman
8. Northwestern (Minn.) 6-1 8-1   Pool B  Beat Crown 44-7
9. Concordia-Moorhead 4-3 5-3   MIAC  Pool A LOST to St Olaf's 25-28; hosts Carleton.  MIAC HAS 4-WAY Tie for 1st
10. St. John's 5-2 6-2   Pool C MIAC  Open date; hosts Augsburg


Suppose Concordia does in fact win out and take the MIAC, where do they go and what happens to Saint John's if they take 2nd?