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Messages - El Hombre

#1
West Region / Re: BB: 2012 West Regional
May 19, 2012, 11:55:57 PM
Congrats to Whitworth and Trinity for great seasons! 

I am happy to see that a West Region team will represent the West in the World Series.  If Whitworth plays as well as it did in the Regional, they will have a great run.  Go Pirates - win one for the West!
#2
West Region / Re: BB: 2012 West Regional
May 18, 2012, 06:25:04 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 18, 2012, 03:26:14 PM
Quote from: BamColt on May 18, 2012, 01:58:00 PM
That 5 run inning hurt. If Jansen and Rodriquez are out then you can pretty much schedule the flight home to Austin earlier than anticipated.
They are not in the line-up today against Whitworth.

Ralph -
Does anyone have any insight on why?  Are they both hurt?
#3
West Region / Re: BB: 2012 West Regional
May 17, 2012, 07:05:44 PM
Quote from: Jack Parkman on May 17, 2012, 12:26:34 PM
Quote from: 108 Stitches on May 17, 2012, 10:38:43 AM
Setting up the critical game of the Regional - Concordia vs Trinity on Friday.

I disagree with this 100%.  The biggest game is Trinity/Whitworth.  Lets be honest, without Klimesh throwing the game he did yesterday I think Trinity would have dropped that game.  That was one hell of a performance and I agree, those Coe guys looked like they had never seen anything close to that.  Whitworth posted a shutout as well but gave themselves a little breathing room after their initial score.  I don't think the same can be said for the Trinity game as it was in doubt until the final strike.

That being said, if your prediction comes through and Concordia and Trinity do meet up, I am going to have to say the winner of that is in mighty good shape. 

Looks like there was some pretty solid baseball played yesterday and the teams that were expected to win, did.  Today is a whole new day and I do think the pressure is on Trinity to show that they can win without Klimesh on the hill.  Since Lucero went down it has been a pretty average team at 7-4.  Lets see what happens.

I agree - this is a critical game.  Both teams have some good bats, and they will need them in this game - it may take 9 or 10 runs to win this one. 
#4
West Region / Re: BB: 2012 West Regional
May 15, 2012, 11:15:59 PM
I have faith in the West Region teams.
Here's to victories for Concordia and Trinity tomorrow!


#5
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 12, 2012, 11:00:07 AM
Ricky / Ralph -
Can someone ask Anthony Holman to look into this matter?
Based on his statements from his interview with Ricky Nelson, he should be very interested . . .

Especially his last statement regarding transparency - that will be important in helping to resolve this matter.

RESPONSES FROM ANTHONY HOLMAN (NCAA): 
AH: " . . . All of our Division III sports have criteria that each of our sport committees are bound by and use in terms of selection criteria, which includes things like won/loss percentage, strength of schedule, things like that, that the committee will review when they're making selections for the national tournament."

AH: ". . . And part of the staff's charge is to make sure that the committee is following those prescribed policies and procedures that have been outlined."


AH: " . . . I'm pretty involved in terms of providing data, stats and guidance, and making sure that the committee is being consistent in their review, making sure they're adhering to our policies and procedures. But the selection is really the charge of the committee. I'm just making sure that we're doing it by the book."

AH:  . . . "But I think for the most part everything that – the decisions that are made really have to be validated by the numbers that we're providing because that's the charge that's been given to us by the championships committee and consistent with the D-III philosophy."

AH: "What I would like to say is that – I would appreciate if you share with the readers – we made an effort to be certainly more transparent."
#6
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 12, 2012, 09:34:38 AM
Quote from: Ricky Nelson on May 12, 2012, 02:13:33 AM
After finally digging into things with a bigger shovel, the order of my top five Pool C's in the West would be: Trinity, Pacific, Linfield, Pomona-Pitzer, Pacific Lutheran. Not sure how well that plays with the crowd – especially the LC and P-P parts for whatever reasons – but it's logical to my eyes.

Texas Tyler, Chapman, George Fox and a few others would follow in some order.

Ricky -
Can you please justify your ranking of Linfield over Pomona using the NCAA selection criteria listed in the handbook? 
Listed below is the side-by-side comparison of the two teams using the selection criteria mandated by the NCAA (thanks to Ralph Turner).  Based on the criteria, there is NO JUSTIFICATION (unless the selection criteria was NOT adhered to, and other factors were used to select the rankings).


COMPARISON (thanks to Ralph Turner):

"The West Regional Playoffs will be held at Linfield College next week.

The West Region Ranking showing Linfield (Lin) appearing for the first time this season in the Regional Rankings and being slotted ahead of Pomona-Pitzer (P-P) is hard to comprehend by the criteria in the Handbook:

Let's do a side-by-side comparing the criteria in the Handbook . . .

Win-loss percentage against regional opponents.

P-P .676 Lin .647 Advantage P-P

Strength of schedule against in-region competition (from the D3Baseball.com front page at time of this posting listed as "NCAA"):

P-P .510 Lin .509 Advantage P-P


In-region head-to-head:

No meetings this year between P-P and Linfield


In-region results vs. common regional opponents:

P-P 10-4 Lin 7-5 Advantage P-P

P-P vs Whitworth 1-0; UPS 1-1; Chapman 2-1; CMS 4-0; Cal Lu 2-2.

Lin vs Whitworth 1-2; UPS 3-0; Chapman 2-2; CMS 0-1; Cal Lu 1-0.


In-region RESULTS versus regionally ranked teams:

P-P 3-2 .600 Linfield 4-3 .571 (Advantage P-P which has a higher%)

P-P Whitworth 1-0; LaVerne 2-2

Lin Whitworth 1-2; Pac Lu 3-1


Conference postseason contests are included.

Neither conference had a post-season tournament.

By the criteria, Pomona-Pitzer should be ranked ahead of Linfield.

This is unacceptable.

#7
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 11, 2012, 05:16:21 PM
Quote from: idalogger on May 11, 2012, 04:48:55 PM
I have no dog in this hunt, having had a son play for UPS the past 4 years who graduates this weekend.  But having seen every one of the teams in this in-region debate play (Linfield, Pacific, PLU, P-P) I think it is ludicrous that Linfield in even included in the discussion. Perhaps it's because of their reputation, but the Cats finished 4th in the NWC. Pacific should be in the discussion - they tied for the conference championship, after all. If Linfield is chosen, the rest of the league will be justifiably outraged.

A Rauh - Dittrick (Pacific's ace) matchup would be terrific.

The bottom -feeders in the NWC are light years ahead of Caltech, IMO.

I sincerely hope that justice is done in this situation.

Here's an idea - if the NCAA (or committee) wants Linfield to play for some reason, then make it an 8-team regional and let the best battle it out!  And yes - a Rauh versus Dittrick matchup would be great!  The scouts would love it too!

#8
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 11, 2012, 04:08:40 PM
Quote from: TexasBB on May 11, 2012, 02:35:46 PM
I am a UTT fan, and even though they won 33 games and were co-champs of the east division of the ASC, they do not deserve a Pool C bid. In the conference tournament they lost 3 of 5 games. Two of those games were to unranked opponents, McMurry and HSU. (However, it can be argued that all the teams that made it to the second round of the conference playoffs were really good teams.) It is too bad that a team with 33 wins is not even in the equation. If Linfield is in the discussion then UTT should be. Linfield is no more deserving in my opinion. Bottom line, neither team should be in the mix as there are others more deserving, such as P-P.

TexasBB

TexasBB -
A couple of points . . .

First, I agree that based on the criteria, there are several teams more deserving than Linfield.  Just look at the data that ranks the West region teams by each "selection criteria" mandated by the NCAA manual.  Pomona and Pacific are the first in line for Pool C bids, followed by a group of others, of which your team (Texas-Tyler) is part of.  And they are more deserving than Linfield.

Secondly, I commend you for standing on principle and displaying the honesty and integrity in standing up for another team (albeit not your own) based on the criteria.  It's nice to see someone not try to "spin" it so their team comes out ahead.  Let's hope the NCAA follows your lead so we all have restored faith in the system, especially the student athletes.   

P.S.  +1 karma (if I knew how!)
#9
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 11, 2012, 12:53:17 PM
Quote from: Richard Hamstocks on May 11, 2012, 12:34:11 PM
Here's my take on Strength of Schedule, motivated by arguments that people have made above. 
Linfield had 22 D3 wins. Pomona-Pitzer had 25 D3 wins, four of which were against Cal Tech.
I'm going to put them on common footing by looking at their best 22 D3 wins (so Pomona-Pitzer loses 3 of their wins against Cal Tech).
Next, I look at the winning percentage of the teams they beat. Beat a team with a higher winning percentage, we'll call it a higher quality win. 
And because Pomona-Pitzer played most of its games against SCIAC opponents, I'm docking every SCIAC team 4 wins (for Cal Tech, though one could argue that some of the NWC teams aren't much better...)
Now I'll order these winning percentages, and take partial sums.  (sum of your worst k wins as k moves from 1 to 22).
Now I'll plot these on the same graph.  It looks like this:

Pomona-Pitzer in orange and Linfield in purple.
Despite starting behind (due to the 0% winning percentage of Cal Tech for the first game), Pomona-Pitzer's quality win sum is running away from Linfield's. Using opponents winning percentage as our metric, strength of schedule is strongly favored towards Pomona-Pitzer.  Of course,  this isn't in the handbook as a primary criterion. But we can call it "drilling into the numbers".   
Given that I've only penalized SCIAC teams for playing a bad opponent (four times!), I'd guess that now bringing in opponents opponents winning percentage isn't going to help Linfield's case any (though that would be too time consuming) 
Pomona's wins are more impressive than Linfield's.

Richard -
Nice analysis!
It is just ANOTHER measure / factor / reason that Pomona earned a higher ranking than Linfield.  Some pundits will discard this since it is not part of the criteria.  However, based on the criteria, there is NO justification for such a ranking, and everyone knows it.  Despite all the calls for someone to try to explain such an outcome, not one individual has stepped up to even try!  Why is that?

Just as others are saying, I hope the NCAA fixes this so there is some faith and integrity restored to the system. 
#10
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 10, 2012, 11:50:39 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 10, 2012, 09:51:25 PM
I have posted the side-by-side comparison of Pomona-Pitzer versus Linfield in the Daily Dose blog.

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3baseball/2012/05/10/third-regional-rankings-2/#comment-2226

P-P wins every comparison.

Ralph -
Great comparison!  All you have to do is see the teams compared side-by-side using the selection criteria and the decision is easy!

Can you forward this to Anthony Holman?  He should see this so he can correct the obvious "mistake" that was made.  It will put an end to this and restore faith in the NCAA and the process. 

Thanks!



#11
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 10, 2012, 11:37:52 PM
Quote from: Ricky Nelson on May 10, 2012, 11:08:21 PM
I'm very happy that I'm not on the West RAC. I think there's a top three, probably four, and a mess that follows. I seem to be in minority, but to me Linfield is in that mess justifiably. I'm not saying I agree after the top three or four, but I don't think it's ludicrous that Linfield is among the fairly long list of contenders for the last two spots in the West.

Where Linfield gets hammered is common opponents.

Ricky -
With all due respect, I am stunned by your position! 

I read your interview with Anthony Holman - it was very informative and gave many of us confidence that the "selection process" was above board and fair to all.  When you read his (AH) comments regarding adherence to the criteria, etc., one's confidence is restored in the system.  Then this happens.  And you defend it! 

Can you please use the NCAA selection criteria to justify Linfield's #5 ranking? 
Many on these boards would love to see how that is even possible. 

Ranking of West Region Teams:
Using the NCAA Selection Criteria


Criteria:  Win-Loss % Against Regional Opponents
1.   Concordia  .800
2.   Trinity  .795
3.   Whitworth  .773
4.   Pacific  .769
5.   Texas-Tyler  .694
6.   Pomona  .676
7.   La Verne  .667
8.   Texas Lutheran  .667
9.   Texas-Dallas  .658
10.   Pac Lu / Linfield (tie)  .647

Criteria:  Strength of Schedule
1.   Chapman  .560  (Nationally #29)
2.   La Verne  .532  (Nationally #103)
3.   Hardin-Simmons .531 (Nationally #104)
4.   (tie 3) George Fox  .531 (Nationally #104)
5.   Mississippi College  (Nationally #126)
6.   Pac Lu  .523  (Nationally #134)
7.   Occidental  .511 (Nationally #192)
8.   Pomona  .510  (Nationally #202)
9.   Linfield  .509  (Nationally #209)
10.   Whittier  .506  (Nationally #220)

RPI (not listed as a criteria, but factors W/L % and SOS)
1.   Concordia  .577
2.   Trinity  .571
3.   La Verne  .566
4.   Whitworth  .564
5.   Pacific  .563
6.   Chapman  .556
7.   Pac Lu  .554
8.   Pomona  .552
9.   Texas-Tyler  .551
10.   George Fox  .545
11.   Linfield .544

Criteria:  Wins  RESULTS Versus Regionally Ranked Teams
1.   George Fox: 5  (overall 5 – 5)
2.   Chapman:  5  (overall 5 – 8)
3.   La Verne:  4  (overall 4 – 4)
4.   Linfield:  4 (overall 4 – 3)
5.   Pacific:  3 (overall 3 – 3)
6.   Pomona:  3  (overall 3 – 2)
7.   Whitworth:  2  (overall 2 – 2)
8.   Pac Lu:  2 (overall 2 – 2)
9.   Trinity:  1 (overall 1 – 0)
10.   Concordia:  1  (overall 1 – 1)
11.   Texas-Tyler:  1  (overall 1 – 3)

Criteria:  Head-to-Head Competition
(records in games between the potential Pool C teams)

1.   George Fox:  8 – 5
2.   Pac Lu:  5 – 6
3.   Pacific:  4 – 2
4.   Linfield:  4 – 3
5.   Chapman:  3 – 5
6.   Pomona:  2 – 1
7.   Trinity:  2 - 1
8.   Texas-Tyler:  0 - 0



#12
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 10, 2012, 11:14:59 PM
Quote from: 108 Stitches on May 10, 2012, 10:26:30 PM
The thing that I keep thinking about are the P-P players, coaches and families. This is a very sad day for DIII baseball.

Is there any process to review these kinds of decisions by the AD's?

Stitches -
My wife and I said the same thing.  Education is the most important thing for the students.  Therefore we send them to these "highly-ranked" institutions so they can "learn from the best".  As a result, you would expect them to witness integrity and transparency.  What are the Pomona student athletes to take from this experience?  What lesson can they pass on to their children in the future?  The NCAA should set a good example and right the wrong.  That would be a good lesson for all. 
#13
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 10, 2012, 06:07:02 PM
Quote from: infielddad on May 10, 2012, 04:50:04 PM
West Region rankings updated:

WEST            
1   Concordia (Texas)   36-9   36-9   
2   Trinity (Texas)   31-8   34-10   
3   Whitworth   25-7-1   26-13-1   
4   La Verne   24-12   25-14   
5   Linfield   22-12   25-15   
6   Pomona-Pitzer   23-11   25-12-1

Would Linfield get a 2nd Pool C in the West and be team #5?


That is a joke!  Why would the NCAA publish, distribute, and promote the selection criteria if the committee doesn't even use it!  Then provide a detailed interview with the NCAA Asst. Director of Championships explaining the "selection process" and ignore it!

I'd love to see someone from the committee try and explain how they used the NCAA selection criteria they were supposed to "adhere to" and rank Linfield above Pomona or Pacific!  The number 5 position also gives Linfield a cushion in case another team gets sent to the West. 

Sorry Pomona and Pacific - you just got the shaft!  And Chapman, Pac Lu, and Texas-Tyler got jumped over by a team that did not beat anyone according to the criteria, either individually or as a whole!  I wonder how long it will be until we hear what "criteria" they really used to decide this one.
#14
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 10, 2012, 10:07:01 AM
Quote from: Richard Hamstocks on May 10, 2012, 09:50:20 AM
Quote from: El Hombre on May 10, 2012, 09:33:14 AM
. . . "We're drilling down into the numbers, looking at all of our online score reporting information. ...where they finished in their last couple of games of the season..."
Linfield 4-6 in last 10 D3 games. 
Pacific 6-4
Chapman 8-2
Pomona-Pitzer 9-1

I know 10 is not a couple, but you get the point.

Richard -
Good point! 
This is just another "measure" or criterion the committee claims to look at, and once again it comes down one of three teams:  Pomona, Pacific, or Chapman. 
#15
West Region / Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
May 10, 2012, 09:33:14 AM
Quote from: Ricky Nelson on May 10, 2012, 02:43:17 AM
You may think it's semantics, but keep in mind that the criterion is results versus regionally ranked teams, not wins necessarily. Of course wins are a very large component of those results, but it's not total wins, winning percentage or anything else alone. It's the artfully complex word "results."

Ricky -
FYI - that was based on the details Anthony Holman gave to you in your interview with him regarding selection criteria.  His response was as follows:
. . . "We're drilling down into the numbers, looking at all of our online score reporting information. If you're a D-I school, the equivalent of the RPI. What we're looking at is their strength of schedule and their won/loss. We're drilling down to who they lost to, where they finished in their last couple of games of the season. What kind of head-to-head matchups have they had? Who did they play or compete against that was ranked? How many ranked opponents did they beat? All of those things would be considered, and we'd be looking at those things for all of the teams that are "on the board."