BB: Just Some Guy's West Region Rankings

Started by Just_Some_Guy, February 20, 2007, 11:09:24 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Chapman vs Linfield

Chapman splits 4 games with Linfield
2 (40%)
Linfield sweeps
1 (20%)
Chapman sweeps
0 (0%)
Linfield takes 3 of 4
0 (0%)
Chapman takes 3 of 4
2 (40%)

Total Members Voted: 5

tloc14

I know UT Tyler's history as a program quite well.  And I understand the "float up" effect, but it just seems odd to me that they are already considered one of the best programs in the nation, considering last season was the first season they could actually participate in post season play.

They have no track record (obviously because they are a new program), but what confuses me more is that they have performed quite poorly against opponents who would be considered playoff teams...namely the teams from the ASC west.  Maybe its an Abeline curse   ;).   Anyhow, I guess they will have time to prove themselves this season because they will be hosting each round of the conference tourney...unless they lay an egg between now and then.

Heres to an exciting couple of weeks   ;D

Jack Parkman

#346
Here are the West Region standings as of 4/6/09.  Things are getting pretty interesting with some teams starting to play very well, while others are starting to slip.

1.  Pomona Pitzer            .944%
2.  Cal Lutheran              .857%
3.  Linfield           .840%
4.  UT Tyler           .828%
5.  George Fox           .806%
6.  Pacific Lutheran           .696%
7.  La Verne           .667%
7.  Chapman           .667%
7.  TLU                           .667%
7.  MISS Col           .667%

I put La Verne ahead of Chapman since ULV took 2 of 2 from Chapman earlier in the year.  La Verne has 12 in-region games left and they could really screw things up if they go on a tear.  There are 9 of those games that could be wins for them, setting up a showdown with Pomona Pitzer. We saw how that book ended last year.

Pomona has a 3 game set with Cal Lutheran and a 3 game set with Chapman left, as well as 3 with La Verne.  Can they keep this up and not have a repeat of last year?



baseballfan24

I will take my second crack at this.  I was sure to include the in-region of these teams.

8. Pacific Lutheran 21-8 (19-8) - This team split with George Fox and went 3-2 vs Linfield this year.  They split with Redlands and lost to La Verne and Pamona.  This team could still win their conference if they sweep out.  Linfield and George Fox still have to play each other.  It seems very possible that Pac Lu does sweep since the rest of the NWC does not seem to be of the same caliber as the top 3.  I don't think they get in without winning conference because their out of conference, in-region schedule is thin (2-3), and one of those wins was Linfield.

7. Hardin-Simmons 23-13 (22-9) - This team did not seem to play well early, but has started to pile up some wins.  They lost twice early in the season to a 15-20 Southwestern.  They lost twice to Tyler and lost their series with UMHB.  They have won every other conference series and beat UT-Dallas early in the season.  They still have Texas Lutheran to play.  It appears that the winner of that series will win the ASC West.  If HSU could sweep TLU and sweep their first round playoff and get to the championship they could conceivably get an at-large bid.  It would put their record around 30-11. 

6. Texas Lutheran 26-11 (24-10) - This team has gotten hot down the stretch.  I said in the previous post that they would have to win the conference tournament to get in, and that may still be true.  However, with Chapman struggling a little that could open another spot in the regional for an at-large.  For either TLU or Hardin-Simmons to get that spot, one of these teams would probably have to sweep the other, and get to the championship game.  If that was TLU their record in-region would be somwhere around 32-12.  If they sweep HSU and then sweep their first round match up, and then get to the championship of their conference.  That is a lot of "if's" though.  These two teams probably still have to win the conference tourney, but there is that possibility still.

5. Linfield 25-7 (23-7) - They still have the four game series with George Fox left.  They swept Cal St. East Bay, and went 2-3 vs. Pac Lutheran.  Their only other non-conference, in-region game came against Puget Sound who is in their conference.  It seems unfortunate for the NWC that they play four game series.  It does not leave many openings to get out and play other conferences.  It is hard to compare except that they did sweep East Bay who was able to take a game from TLU and George Fox.

4. George Fox 24-7 (21-4) - They still have Linfield to go, and are currently first in their conference.  They won 2 of 3 from East Bay, and split with Pac Lutheran. Just like Linfield they do not have many out of conference games.

3. Cal Lutheran 24-7 (20-4) - I place them ahead of George Fox because they have played, in my opinion, a tougher schedule, and will finish the season with a higher schedule difficulty.  They still have Pamona to play.  They split with Chapman, and swept East Bay.  They beat Hendrix, swept LaVerne, took two of three from Redlands.  I feel that their only bad loss came the other day from Menlo.  If this team does not win their conference they are looking at a great opportunity for an at-large bid.

2. Texas-Tyler 31-6 (28-5) - They play in the East Division which is weaker, but this team just wins.  They will play Mississippi College in Tyler for the East Division title.  They lost two of three to McMurry, and lost to an under achieving Concordia early in the season. They did beat Trinity twice.  This team seems to have an at-large locked up should they not win their conference tourney.  But, I am not the committee.

1. Pamona-Pitzer 28-3 (20-1) - These two may be interchangeable.  Pamona is piling up wins.  They are good, and obviously my pick for number 1 in the west region.  If this team does not win they also seem to have an at-large locked up.  I have nothing more to say other than Pamona just keeps winning.  They have three big series coming up with Chapman, Cal Lutheran, and La Verne.  These should be 9 tough games.  We may learn just how good this team is from these games.

That is it.  Feel free to correct any mistakes I may have made, and feel free to disagree.  These are only my opinions.

Ralph Turner

Good job on the list, baseballfan24.

Just to remind everyone...

There is no specific designation of Pool C bids by region.  A region may be shut out of Pool C at-large bids.

When the first regional rankings come out on April 23, then we can look at Chapman's chances in Pool B.

BigPoppa

Quote from: Ralph Turner on April 13, 2009, 12:37:39 PM

When the first regional rankings come out on April 23, then we can look at Chapman's chances in Pool B.

I have no idea of what to expect this time. So many teams are having great seasons right now.
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

OshDude

Quote from: Ralph Turner on April 13, 2009, 12:37:39 PM
Good job on the list, baseballfan24.

Just to remind everyone...

There is no specific designation of Pool C bids by region.  A region may be shut out of Pool C at-large bids.

When the first regional rankings come out on April 23, then we can look at Chapman's chances in Pool B.
Chapman may not even be ranked on 4/23, but so far I see them as a Pool B team. The B's are not very strong this year. As I see it, it's Salisbury, St. Scholastica, Ithaca (probably) and a scramble for the last three.

TexasBB

Quote from: OshDude on April 14, 2009, 10:07:00 AM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on April 13, 2009, 12:37:39 PM
Good job on the list, baseballfan24.

Just to remind everyone...

There is no specific designation of Pool C bids by region.  A region may be shut out of Pool C at-large bids.

When the first regional rankings come out on April 23, then we can look at Chapman's chances in Pool B.


Chapman may not even be ranked on 4/23, but so far I see them as a Pool B team. The B's are not very strong this year. As I see it, it's Salisbury, St. Scholastica, Ithaca (probably) and a scramble for the last three.


Which leads to the potential of keeping more deserving Pool C candidates out of the national tournament.  The best teams should be represented IMHO. It would be truely unfortunate if a Chapman gets a Pool B bid and 1 or 2 other West Region teams that are ranked higher are left out.

BigPoppa

Quote from: TexasBB on April 16, 2009, 10:36:13 AM
Quote from: OshDude on April 14, 2009, 10:07:00 AM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on April 13, 2009, 12:37:39 PM
Good job on the list, baseballfan24.

Just to remind everyone...

There is no specific designation of Pool C bids by region.  A region may be shut out of Pool C at-large bids.

When the first regional rankings come out on April 23, then we can look at Chapman's chances in Pool B.


Chapman may not even be ranked on 4/23, but so far I see them as a Pool B team. The B's are not very strong this year. As I see it, it's Salisbury, St. Scholastica, Ithaca (probably) and a scramble for the last three.


Which leads to the potential of keeping more deserving Pool C candidates out of the national tournament.  The best teams should be represented IMHO. It would be truely unfortunate if a Chapman gets a Pool B bid and 1 or 2 other West Region teams that are ranked higher are left out.

I agree, but that is the way the rules are set up. Pool B teams do not have any other way to earn a automatic bid through a conference.
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

Ralph Turner

Pool B functions like a big conference for all of the independents.

The number of Pool B bids is determined by the access ratio.  The access ratio is the number of schools in Pool A conferences, the conferences that get automatic bids, divided the number of those conferences.

(The 2009 Handbook has revised its text, taking out the calculations for Pool B but it is right at 6 bids).

Chapman will not be taking a bid away from a Pool A school.

Also, there is no restriction by region on the number of bids that a region's teams can receive.  Linfield went to the playoff at Augustana last season.  (George Fox came to Abilene.)

BigPoppa

Quote from: Ralph Turner on April 16, 2009, 11:31:12 AM
Pool B functions like a big conference for all of the independents.

The number of Pool B bids is determined by the access ratio.  The access ratio is the number of schools in Pool A conferences, the conferences that get automatic bids, divided the number of those conferences.

(The 2009 Handbook has revised its text, taking out the calculations for Pool B but it is right at 6 bids).

Chapman will not be taking a bid away from a Pool A school.

Also, there is no restriction by region on the number of bids that a region's teams can receive.  Linfield went to the playoff at Augustana last season.  (George Fox came to Abilene.)

Correct, Ralph. I think the West could be looking at a few extra bids with some teams being shipped to other regions.
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

royhobbs

Could be a wild wrap up for teams in the West. Anyone know if Kitchens will  pitch versus Pomona? Cal Lu/ Pomona series should be interesting, we'll find out how good Cal Lu's pitching really is at the Homer Dome! Both teams are very good. NWC and ASC should also have a lot of shaking out. Should be possible for some team to sneak into a playoff spot  if they finish strong.

Jack Parkman

West Region standings as of 4/19/09

1.  Pomona-Pitzer (23-1)    .958%
2.  Cal Lutheran  (23-4)     .852%
3.  George Fox  (26-5)       .839%
4.  UT Tyler  (29-6)            .829%
5.  Pacific Lutheran (25-8) .758%
     Linfield (25-8)               .758%
7.  Miss. Col. (16-7)           .696%
8.  Hardin Simm. (23-11)   .676%

Chapman is 14-11 (.560%) as a Pool B team.

Big series coming up in the SCIAC and NWC.  Pomona Pitzer and Cal Lutheran have a 3 game series next weekend and George Fox and Linfield have a 4 game set in the NWC. 
It seems that the only hope for Linfield is to sweep George Fox.  3 of 4 will do them no good.  Unless PLU really slips up, I think they are in the Regional.
Cal Lutheran can't afford many more losses.
UT Tyler needs to win the ASC Tourney to keep Cal Lutheran's hopes alive for a pool C.

Dawgsdad

Quote from: Jack Parkman on April 20, 2009, 12:06:32 AM
West Region standings as of 4/19/09

1.  Pomona-Pitzer (23-1)    .958%
2.  Cal Lutheran  (23-4)     .852%
3.  George Fox  (26-5)       .839%
4.  UT Tyler  (29-6)            .829%
5.  Pacific Lutheran (25-8) .758%
     Linfield (25-8)               .758%
7.  Miss. Col. (16-7)           .696%
8.  Hardin Simm. (23-11)   .676%

Chapman is 14-11 (.560%) as a Pool B team.

Big series coming up in the SCIAC and NWC.  Pomona Pitzer and Cal Lutheran have a 3 game series next weekend and George Fox and Linfield have a 4 game set in the NWC. 
It seems that the only hope for Linfield is to sweep George Fox.  3 of 4 will do them no good.  Unless PLU really slips up, I think they are in the Regional.
Cal Lutheran can't afford many more losses.
UT Tyler needs to win the ASC Tourney to keep Cal Lutheran's hopes alive for a pool C.

Jack,

I'm curious why TLU doesn't show up in this discussion? They took two of three from HSU this weekend, and have swept MC earlier in the year.

BigPoppa

I am guessing that TLU's in-region record is below the other 8 teams. JP has them ranked in order of in-region winning percentage.
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

Dawgsdad

Quote from: BigPoppa on April 20, 2009, 09:16:30 AM
I am guessing that TLU's in-region record is below the other 8 teams. JP has them ranked in order of in-region winning percentage.

Thanks Big Poppa. I'll have to double check this but I think TLU in-region is 26-11 or .707 (got this using Jack's numbers from an earlier post going into this past weekend). I'll recheck my numbers in a while... need to get my day moving :)