Top 25 Discussion

Started by BigPoppa, March 11, 2013, 01:04:29 PM

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Spence

Quote from: Ralph Turner on March 15, 2013, 04:37:58 PM
Quote from: Spence on March 15, 2013, 01:47:36 AM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on March 14, 2013, 10:31:45 PM
And if you want me to build a 6-team bracket for the Midwest Regionals 2 months from now, I will take St Thomas, UWW, UWL and the Pool A bid from the UMAC, CSS.  Add the IIAC Pool A bid and the NATHC champ and voila!

I hope the committee will be more creative than that given how many regionals are close by.
You have to move the teams out of the Mid-Atlantic.

When you look at the 500-mile radii of the host sites, I think that Concordia-Austin gets filled with the West Region teams, then the next one will be Millington TN.

From there, I think that they start sorting out the east coast.

You could do anything you want between Whitewater, Augustana and Terre Haute with just about anyone except St. Scholastica.

Ralph Turner

I am figuring on 6 team brackets in Concordia-Tx (West) Millington TN (South), Whitewater (Midwest) and Augustana (Central).  Everyone will have an 8-team bracket.

Spence

Given the results over the last couple of days, it might benefit voters to do a complete reset of previous assumptions and voting.

I'm not sure anyone in the top 10 right now deserves a first-place vote.

Just_Some_Guy

Quote from: CrashDavisD3 on March 14, 2013, 05:28:52 PM
Quote from: Ricky Nelson on March 14, 2013, 02:43:34 PM
I think "unranked" is a bit of a misnomer. Kean didn't lose to 2-10 teams. Ithaca is in my top 25. Brockport was removed from my 25 at the 11th hour. La Verne is in someone's 25. Chapman is capable of beating any team. Redlands has one home loss and has beaten Pomona, CLU, UTD, Bridgewater and Kean at their place.

UW-Whitewater moved into the top 10 after a split against an unranked team.

UNLV was unranked by Baseball America in a literal sense. Plus, Stanford was swept at home in three games. I disagree that KU and Stanford is an apt analogy.

Your right...Apples and Oranges comparison

Occidental(15-2) Not in TOP 25, Not even a single vote. If it beats Cal Lu 2 of 3 they deserve a top 25 ranking with a 17-3 record.

You're right. Had they beat Cal Lu 2 of 3 they probably deserved to be ranked, but anyone who's followed the SCIAC the last 6-8 years is going to be hesitant to rank Oxy until they win a big series - regardless of record. Had they taken 2 of 3 from Chapman, then perhaps they're 'also receiving votes,' but their body of work, despite the W-L record, wouldn't have put them in my ballot. It would be like Howard Payne in the ASC or Lewis & Clark in the NWC. You inherently know better, until you don't.

Hammer Ball

Quality win for Kean on a miserable day in NJ. Damp 36 - 39 degree weather not hitter friendly especially against 2 90+ mph throwers.

Spence

#50
Seems like a lot of that going around this weekend.

As of now, here's my top 25...in case anyone cares. It's pretty much entirely different than last week's poll ranking lol. It's also changed a ton this weekend because ranked teams have liked to lose.

1. Linfield
2. St. Thomas
3. Western New England
4. St. Joseph's
5. Salisbury
6. Cortland State
7. UW-LaCrosse
8. St. Scholastica
9. Webster
10. Wheaton (Mass.)
11. Huntingdon
12. UW-Whitewater
13. Kean
14. Marietta
15. Millsaps
16. Heidelberg
17. Haverford
18. Illinois Wesleyan
19. Manchester
20. Spalding
21. Cal Lutheran
22. Keystone
23. UT-Tyler
24. Neumann
25. Concordia (Ill.)

Just_Some_Guy

Quote from: Spence on March 17, 2013, 06:22:31 PM
Seems like a lot of that going around this weekend.

As of now, here's my top 25...in case anyone cares. It's pretty much entirely different than last week's poll ranking lol. It's also changed a ton this weekend because ranked teams have liked to lose.

1. Linfield
21. Cal Lutheran
23. UT-Tyler


I can only speak for the West since that's the region I follow closely, but I'm a bit surprised by the omission of Trinity. Their SoS isn't great, but it's not bad either and at 18-4 I feel like they're a top 12-15 team, especially with the depth they've begun to develop on the bump and the way Hirschberg is swinging the bat.

JSG

Spence

Quote from: Just_Some_Guy on March 17, 2013, 07:14:56 PM
Quote from: Spence on March 17, 2013, 06:22:31 PM
Seems like a lot of that going around this weekend.

As of now, here's my top 25...in case anyone cares. It's pretty much entirely different than last week's poll ranking lol. It's also changed a ton this weekend because ranked teams have liked to lose.

1. Linfield
21. Cal Lutheran
23. UT-Tyler


I can only speak for the West since that's the region I follow closely, but I'm a bit surprised by the omission of Trinity. Their SoS isn't great, but it's not bad either and at 18-4 I feel like they're a top 12-15 team, especially with the depth they've begun to develop on the bump and the way Hirschberg is swinging the bat.

JSG

The way I thought of it...if they were 9-2 with that schedule, would I rank them over some of the other teams that have played a similar number of games with a similar record. Answer was no. If they had won more than 1 of 3 against Centenary I might feel differently.

BigPoppa

Here goes my Week #4 Poll:

1st Linfield
2nd Trinity (Tex.)
3rd Chris. Newport
4th Salisbury
5th Western New Eng.
6th St. Thomas (Minn.)
7th Pomona-Pitzer
8th Wis.-Whitewater
9th Ill. Wesleyan
10th Marietta
11th Wis.-Stevens Point
12th Kean
13th Eastern Conn. St.
14th Wis.-La Crosse
15th Cortland St.
16th Wash. & Jeff.
17th Shenandoah
18th Texas-Tyler
19th Saint Joseph's (Me.)
20th Wheaton (Mass.)
21st St. Scholastica
22nd Concordia (Ill.)
23rd Wis.-Oshkosh
24th Augustana (Ill.)
25th Spalding


Hammer away. I know someone will be unhappy...
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

Hammer Ball

My first, and last, attempt at a Poll. 
No teams with fewer then 10 games considered.  With less than 10 the sample size of in-season games is not sufficient to rank without relying on past performance and prognosticating where the team might end up at years end. Those factors, imo, are not a proper gauge on a teams performance at a particular point in a season. (The number 10 is arbitrary.) I should note that in doing this I realized how speculative an exercise it is.  I have seen 11 D3 teams play this year and might be able to fairly rank them.  (I even question my ability to do that after only a single game.) Yes the ISR and SOS weigh heavily.

and Big Poppa, how could anyone be unhappy talking baseball?

1 - California Lutheran
2 - Linfield
3 - George Fox
4 - Pomona-Pitzer
5 - Millsaps
6 - Texas-Tyler
7 - Huntingdon
8 - Manchester
9 - Pacific Lutheran
10 - Haverford
11 - Heidelberg
12 - Texas Lutheran
13 - Spalding
14 - Augustana, Illinois
15 - Neumann
16 - Marietta
17 - Kean
18 - Salisbury
19 - Trinity, Texas
20 - Christopher Newport
21 - Shenandoah
22 - Chapman
23 - Whitworth
24 - Redlands
25 - Cal Tech (for never giving up . . . and likely designing the defense weapons/systems that protect our country.)

Spence

Quote from: BigPoppa on March 18, 2013, 11:15:17 AM

Hammer away. I know someone will be unhappy...

First off, good job on Linfield #1.

In general I think you place too much importance on wins and not enough on strength of schedule. But even besides that, CNU is 17-6 against a weak schedule -- would you rank an 8-3 team with a weak schedule in the top 5?

Trinity has similarly beaten a bunch of oil cans and lost 2 of 3 to the only good team they've played since February 2nd.

Cal Lu already leads the SCIAC and it will be a major surprise if they aren't 14-4 or better by the end of their next 2 series (vs. Caltech and CMS). They already took 2 out of 3 from Pitzer playing 2 of the 3 at Pitzer.

On the flip side, Webster and Wheaton may have taken some losses but they also beat some really good teams. I had Webster lower in my poll but teams this weekend kept losing and Webster kept moving up as a result. Winning 5 of 6 against Wheaton, Cortland, Marietta, St. Joe's, Augustana and New Jersey (5 ranked opponents) puts you well in the rankings IMO.

Spence

Quote from: Hammer Ball on March 18, 2013, 12:35:48 PM
My first, and last, attempt at a Poll. 
No teams with fewer then 10 games considered.  With less than 10 the sample size of in-season games is not sufficient to rank without relying on past performance and prognosticating where the team might end up at years end. Those factors, imo, are not a proper gauge on a teams performance at a particular point in a season. (The number 10 is arbitrary.) I should note that in doing this I realized how speculative an exercise it is.  I have seen 11 D3 teams play this year and might be able to fairly rank them.  (I even question my ability to do that after only a single game.) Yes the ISR and SOS weigh heavily.

and Big Poppa, how could anyone be unhappy talking baseball?

1 - California Lutheran
2 - Linfield
3 - George Fox
4 - Pomona-Pitzer
5 - Millsaps
6 - Texas-Tyler
7 - Huntingdon
8 - Manchester
9 - Pacific Lutheran
10 - Haverford
11 - Heidelberg
12 - Texas Lutheran
13 - Spalding
14 - Augustana, Illinois
15 - Neumann
16 - Marietta
17 - Kean
18 - Salisbury
19 - Trinity, Texas
20 - Christopher Newport
21 - Shenandoah
22 - Chapman
23 - Whitworth
24 - Redlands
25 - Cal Tech (for never giving up . . . and likely designing the defense weapons/systems that protect our country.)

I use the ISRs mainly to see how it ranks teams and SOS among teams in the same region. It's fairly obvious that it overranks the West region though. I'm not sure why but I think it might be because of some of the games against non D-III teams.

OshDude

Quite a divergent sample of rankings. For what it's worth, mine trended toward Spence's.

Anyone else have a top 25? I like seeing other takes.

This week was one of the hardest to compile in my years of voting. This time of year is always difficult though.

Just_Some_Guy

Quote from: Spence on March 18, 2013, 01:51:16 PM
Quote from: BigPoppa on March 18, 2013, 11:15:17 AM

Hammer away. I know someone will be unhappy...

First off, good job on Linfield #1.

Trinity has similarly beaten a bunch of oil cans and lost 2 of 3 to the only good team they've played since February 2nd.

Cal Lu already leads the SCIAC and it will be a major surprise if they aren't 14-4 or better by the end of their next 2 series (vs. Caltech and CMS). They already took 2 out of 3 from Pitzer playing 2 of the 3 at Pitzer.


Agree w/ Spence regarding Cal Lu > Pomona based on the sample size/what I've seen thus far. I don't think any SCIAC teams are top 15, though.

I'm not as bullish on Trinity as BigPoppa, but I do think they should be in the mix around 12-16.

I like Tyler's rotation and envision their record sitting pretty as they don't have much competition this year in the ASC East now that they've already taken 2 of 3 from UTD. That said, they've never gone deep enough in post season play for me to warrant ranking them much higher.

JSG

BigPoppa

Quote from: Ricky Nelson on March 18, 2013, 03:48:49 PM
Quite a divergent sample of rankings. For what it's worth, mine trended toward Spence's.

Anyone else have a top 25? I like seeing other takes.

This week was one of the hardest to compile in my years of voting. This time of year is always difficult though.

Agree... this week was tough to vote. Now that just about everyone is off and running it should make things a bit easier to do and allow us separate contenders from pretenders. One teams that I really struggled with this week was my omission of Webster (some huge wins for them last week, but at 7-5 they have a few losses they shouldn't have. Still, they will be there in the end as the should plow through the SCIAC again).
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.