2014 Surprise Teams

Started by MidwestAficionado, February 28, 2014, 02:39:46 PM

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MidwestAficionado

Division III Soccer is more set in its ways than most sports leagues... we know the national contenders year in and year out: Messiah, Loras, Montclair, Amherst, Williams, Stevens etc.

We enter 2014 with questions like will Rose-Hulman and Westminster build off of their Cinderella NCAA runs in 2013? Can Lycoming repeat its late season success?

Looking for some early predictions on which lesser known or previously less successful programs are on the uptick for 2014...

MidwestAficionado

No off-season banter? Or do we only feel comfortable talking about the team we follow/played for/have a son playing for?

Midwest Soccer

I agree that it stinks there is no off-season banter on this website. I still check every so often and don't contribute so I guess I'm part of the problem too! I personally think DePauw is on the brink of doing something pretty big. They've made 2/3 NCAA tournaments and probably should have made it last year had they scheduled a tougher schedule...they were definitely talented enough to make a run.

They continue to have impressive freshmen classes that have significant contributors and are returning one of the more dangerous players in D3 Andy Morrison next year. Watch out for them.


casualfan

Since I'm more familiar with the North and Central regions, I'll throw my two cents in.

North
It'll be interesting to see if anyone can challenge to knock Loras off the peak of their consecutive final four appearances. To be honest, I doubt it'll happen in the near future. Too much youth and depth coming from the Duhawks year to year. Wartburg had a great year so it'll be intriguing to see if they can get something consistent going in Waverly, IA. Looking at the MIAC, the conference continues to be wide open throughout the regular season with an occasional big result against an outside conference squad, but they have struggled in the NCAA's for the past 5 years. In back to back years, they've lost to some of the bottom feeder conference representatives in the NCAA's which has downgraded their reputation as of late. The UMAC will always be St. Scholastica...solid team but cannot really break into the region's top teams. The WIAC has been interesting over the past few seasons, UW-Oshkosh seems like they've gotten things together after this past fall with a number of transfers. UW-Superior wins the inaugural Conference Tournament with UW-Whitewater having a decent year as well. UW-Platteville dropped back to reality this past fall after an impressive 2012. With lots of talented players graduating from the WIAC, it'll be interested to watch how each school rebounds. The Midwest Conference should continue to be below average.

Central

The Central, as a whole, had a down 2013 season without a single team making the Sweet 16. Wheaton had a solid year but dropped one to Kenyon at home in the second round. Looking at the rest of the CCIW, it seems that North Park had an up and down year so as usual, it'll depend on the Swedes for how far the Vikings can go. Carthage had a solid year and could be on the rise. The MIAA will always be Hope/Calvin with this year's representative being the Flying Dutchmen. For the most part, the MIAA was a bit disappointing in the regular season but Hope was able to pull out an upset over UW-Oshkosh in the first round via the longest throw-ins I've ever seen. The NACC continues to be a below average conference, but it seems it's becoming a bit more competitive. Dominican lost it's first regular season conference match in over 100 matches. The Stars pulled it out in the conference tournament but were defeated handily by Wartburg. The SLIAC is just plain bad, but Westminster was the schock of the tournament defeating Carleton and GAC, both MIAC schools who continue to underachieve in the NCAA's. Will they be able to replicate the cinderella run? Not likely. Rounding out the region are Chicago & WashU (UAA), Maranatha (IND), and Rhodes (SAA). WashU has consistently been the best of the bunch but missed the tournament for the first time in years. Can the Bears rebound? Who knows.

Should be an exciting 2014!

PaulNewman

Midwest Soccer, great call on DePauw.  A team VERY loaded with talent and coming in with a chip on their shoulder after missing out on the tournament.  Probably the best team that didn't get in, and stronger than more than a few that did get in.  The NCAC will be a dogfight between DePauw, Kenyon and OWU, and Oberlin has a chance to prove that they weren't a fluke last year.  IMHO this will be the first year in a very long time that OWU is not the favorite to win the conference.  Won't be a surprise if OWU pulls it out, but also won't be a surprise if they don't.  I'd give the slight edge to DePauw and Kenyon, both of whom return almost everyone and with Kenyon benefiting from last year's impressive tourney run and experience in powerhouse contests.  OWU graduates a big senior class, but of course they will be re-stocked as always.

Expect a big year out of Calvin.

In the Northeast/New England, SLU and Rochester should be very good again.  Brandeis will be good again.  Wheaton (MA) could make some noise.  In the NESCAC, wouldn't be surprised to see Amherst come back to the pack a little.  Williams and Midd look like favorites, with Tufts and Wesleyan in the hunt.  Look for a darkhorse like Gordon to emerge.

MidwestAficionado

Thanks for the input guys, keep it coming...

Having seen the Central Region a lot in 2013, I think there will be much improved play in 2014 with some high level teams and maybe a big surprise coming out of the Central

All NESCAC

Prior Post
In the Northeast/New England, SLU and Rochester should be very good again.  Brandeis will be good again.  Wheaton (MA) could make some noise.  In the NESCAC, wouldn't be surprised to see Amherst come back to the pack a little.  Williams and Midd look like favorites, with Tufts and Wesleyan in the hunt.  Look for a darkhorse like Gordon to emerge.

Agree with the above.  Brandeis should be very good again and Wheaton will be much improved as mostly underclassmen returning.  NESCAC favorites look right.  Dark horse in NESCAC will be Conn as they return 8 starters and top 5 reserves thus they will be experienced with the entire back line returning and have filled their keeper with a D1 transfer.  Endicott maybe a surprise dark horse in their league with a number of strong returning players especially up top.




FourMoreYears

Question on Conn College:

The NESCAC site shows that 5 of the players that started the most games last year for Conn College were Seniors ... and that 40% of Conn College starting slots throughout the year were filled by Seniors.  That's high compared to the NESCAC average (3.45 seniors in the Top 11 for games started and 29% of starting slots filled by Seniors throughout the year).  Plus they lose 41% of all their points scored due to graduation (albeit most through the POY).  How does this reconcile with them being one of the most experienced teams to return in 2014? 

I'm not making any comment on their chances in 2014 ... they could win the conference for all I know ... but it the numbers don't seem to indicate they have the most coming back.

Insights?

All NESCAC

Just looked at the stats.  Conn had 3 Senior Starters throughout 2013 Goalie, Striker, and Defensive Mid all had 13+ starts.   Only 1 other Sr had 8 starts (playing multiple positions back, mid, forward and had starts at all 3 positions due to injuries of other starters) and played significant minutes as reserve and had injuries himself during the year missing games.  Entire back line starters 3 Jrs and 1 soph return as do top 2 backline reserves (who had significant playing time due to some injuries).  All remaining mid field slots and striker starters all return.  Conn had some significant time (games) missed by some no-senior starters throughout 2013 season due to nagging injuries (as did most teams).  Other than the 3 Sr starters and one Sr reserve (who made starts at 3 different positions) the remaining 8 starters and other top 5 reserves all return for 2013 (all of the reserves started multiple games due to the injury bug of the 2013 season).  They will have significant experienced starters and reserves returning....of course that means absolutely nothing other than they have experience, but the team does play extremely hard and competes in every game.  They will be stingy on defense again next year.  Replacing the scoring of Hawkey will be a challenge to say the least, but they are returning their other top 4 forwards and also getting one back who was out all last season who played significant minutes in 2012.  Don't know if they have any impact recruits coming in for 2014 but had some impactful frosh last year who will be sophs in 2014.  Longshot to win the conference, but they will be in the mix given their returning group and if, and its a big if, they can have a reasonably healthy 2014. 

FourMoreYears

Thanks ... really appreciate your insight and information.

I'm not trying to be confrontational ... promise :-)
On NESCAC.com it shows the following for Conn College seniors:


15 starts = Hawkey, Nichols
12 starts = O'Brien
11 starts = Pearce
8 starts = Hormel

All of the above were listed in the top 11 players for most games started.  That's where I got the 5 Senior starters ... maybe one of them (Pearce?) were an underclassmen and mis-labeled?
Or maybe the site is just incorrect.

I didn't take injuries into account, and that is probably part of where the disconnect lies.

It's all good.

All NESCAC

O'Brien is a Jr forward. The rest are Sr's.  Hormel (very good player) was Mr. Versatile starting in 3 different positions.

CAC2424

New to the board, thought I'd chime in...

A few surprise teams for me across the country:

TCNJ
MIT
Kenyon
Carlton

I only know a good amount about the NESCAC so I'll throw in my two cents....

I actually disagree that Amherst will take a step back. If anything I think they have the chance to field their most talented team of the past few years. Heo and Rico will be back this fall and they got a top DI transfer who is already in school. 

I think Tufts has the talent to compete again (they got pretty unlucky this past season)  and Williams is always going to be in the mix.  The biggest question mark for Williams will be it's goalkeeping situation - not sure there is a surefire heir apparent for Morrell.  Having Rashid healthy for a full year has to be exciting for Russo. 

I think Midd and Wesleyan are in the next tier down but it wouldn't shock me if either one was playing in the final next November.  Bowdoin is a bit of a wildcard.  Good team. Come to think of it, Conn is a wildcard too.  Hawkey was big, big part of their offense.  Hard to tell how much his loss will hurt. 

Surprise team (in relative terms) could be Bates.  They have some pretty good young players and few good recruits coming in. 

 

nescac1

Sounds like Amherst will be the prohibitive favorite yet again.  Who is the D-1 transfer?  Didn't realize Heo would be returning -- he must be around 25, considering he was originally in the class of 2012, so he will literally be a man among boys out there.  Adding Rico, Heo and a D-1 transfer to a team that already returns nearly all of its offense (much of which was generated by first-year players, who should improve) is pretty scary.  And Amherst has by far the best goalie in the league.  They lose several very good defenders but also have two really good frosh in the backfield who played a lot this past fall, so they will be fine there. 

If Williams can find a solid goalie (there are a few good candidates, 6'4 senior Andrew Bravo, rising sophomore Christian Alcorn, and incoming first-year Bobby Schneiderman), they should be significantly improved, as the Ephs really overachieved in the post-season, especially after losing two starting backs to injury late in the season.  The deep tourney run was great experience for a fairly young team. 

As noted having Rashid healthy all year will be a big difference, and the Rashid/Montenout/Moralles offensive trio really started to gel late in the season, and should be more dynamic after a year playing together.  All three are very creative players.  The Ephs desperately need at least one more big-time finisher to help that trio out; hopefully Grady can step up or an incoming recruit or two can emerge in that department because they are really thin up front with Kastner and Ushaina graduating, and the last few years they've struggled at times to score despite dominating possession. 

The Ephs will get Michael Madding, a key defensive midfielder, back from a season-long injury, as well as Burbank-Crump and Ritter back from season-ending injuries.  Thanks to guys having to step up for injured players, Williams is very big, experienced, versatile and incredibly deep in the back and at defensive midfield, with Seitz, Madding, Pierce, Ritter, Conder, Danilack, Dory, Grunman, Westling and Burbank-Crump all returning, and averaging about 6'2 as a group.  They could put some physically overpowering lineups out there.  One or two of those guys (Westling almost certainly, as he has played up in the past) will surely move up as there are more bodies than spots available, and they will be able to rotate a lot of fresh bodies in.  If the Ephs can find one more consistent goal scorer and get solid goalie play, they should be the biggest threat to Amherst yet again. 

Middlebury's great rising sophomore class should help them contend as well, although they did graduate some very good defenders.

MidwestAficionado

Please all... This is about surprise teams or up-and-coming programs. This is not the new NESCAC thread. Let's keep some space to talk about the up and comers, not the teams that make the tournament every year

All NESCAC

Appreciate you starting the thread MidwestAficionado.  Agree with your comment, but unfortunately since only 2 NESCAC teams made the D3 NCAA last year with about 5 others just missing out on the bubble you will get some NESCAC centric posts concerning Middlebury, Tufts, Conn, Trinity, Wesleyan and Bowdoin as they are all bringing back a number of returning starters and hoping to surprise in 2014 by making the NCAA's.  Hope others join in from outside the Northeast to provide commentary regarding possible surprise teams in 2014.