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Messages - augie_superfan

#16
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
March 05, 2016, 10:07:41 AM
Updated probabilities after the round 1 games

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney/2016-tourney1

Hopefully another great slate of games tonight following yesterday's excitement.
#17
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
March 04, 2016, 08:24:51 PM
Quote from: AO on March 04, 2016, 03:19:21 PM
Quote from: augie_superfan on March 03, 2016, 06:46:27 PM
For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament.  The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round.  They will be updated with each round.

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney

The "worst" championship game that took place in 1 million simulations was Husson vs. Brooklyn.  The "best" and most likely championship game was Augie vs. Benedictine (roughly 13% of the time).

As for the closest 1st round matchups, the simulation predicted the following games:

Cortland (50.8%) over WPI
Wooster (53.5%) over Lancaster Bible
LaGrange (56.9%) over Birmingham-Southern
Lynchburg (57%) over Scranton

Largest mismatches:

Augustana (99%) over Westminster (MO)
Ohio Wesleyan (93.1%) over Pitt-Greensburg
John Carroll (87.1%) over St. Vincent
Susquehanna (84.9%) over SUNY-Old Westbury
Do you have historical upset records?  Would be fun to see if anything has surpassed the 1.1% chance my team had of beating St. Thomas last year and the 0.0% chance they had to get to the sweet 16.

Only other year I did something similar was 2012 so I don't have much to compare to but I would assume last year's run was the most unlikely in quite some time.
#18
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
March 04, 2016, 06:03:59 PM
Quote from: HOPEful on March 04, 2016, 02:29:14 PM
Quote from: augie_superfan on March 03, 2016, 06:46:27 PM
For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament.  The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round.  They will be updated with each round.

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney

Benedictine and Augustana are good teams this year that very well could take home the banner, but a 26.1% and 21% chance to win the whole thing!? That's almost even money those two vs. the field.

And Augie could potentially have to go through Hope (#9), Emory(#25), Whitworth (#3), Christopher Newport(#4), and Benidictine(#2) to do it... color me skeptical, but I might have to call your "adjustments" into question :)

Understandable, but the adjustments I reference actually make it "less" likely that a favorite will win thus decreasing the top team's probabilities a bit.  If you don't believe the rankings of a computer ranking system then you shouldn't trust these either.

Out of curiosity, what do you think Hope's chances of beating Augustana are?
#19
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
March 03, 2016, 06:46:27 PM
For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament.  The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round.  They will be updated with each round.

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney

The "worst" championship game that took place in 1 million simulations was Husson vs. Brooklyn.  The "best" and most likely championship game was Augie vs. Benedictine (roughly 13% of the time).

As for the closest 1st round matchups, the simulation predicted the following games:

Cortland (50.8%) over WPI
Wooster (53.5%) over Lancaster Bible
LaGrange (56.9%) over Birmingham-Southern
Lynchburg (57%) over Scranton

Largest mismatches:

Augustana (99%) over Westminster (MO)
Ohio Wesleyan (93.1%) over Pitt-Greensburg
John Carroll (87.1%) over St. Vincent
Susquehanna (84.9%) over SUNY-Old Westbury
#20
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Pool C
February 12, 2016, 08:15:49 PM
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on February 11, 2016, 01:58:05 PM
Yeah... but this year's committee has hinted (on air and some people off air) that they may be pushing to .060 equals 4 despite clearly the words from the committee last year saying as it pushes out they lose a little faith that it as even. The NCAA Stats people have apparently poured over the numbers with them the last few years per the equation .030 SOS = 2 games.

And these are the same stats people that have decided to calculate the SOS in such an "interesting" way.  The end result of the teams picked each year seems to be pretty good as of late but it is crazy to trust these statisticians with an equivalence equation when they can't even figure out the SOS issues.
#21
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2015 NCAA Tournament
March 14, 2015, 09:49:57 PM
Unbelievable night for Augustana. There aren't many words needed to describe that effort on both ends of the floor tonight.  Just one of those special nights.  Congrats to the team on a great accomplishment of making the Final Four and good luck.  See you in Salem!!!
#22
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2015 NCAA Tournament
March 08, 2015, 10:37:16 PM
Updated odds of advancement:

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxkM2Jhc2tldGJhbGxpbmRleHxneDoyYTFlNDI1OTljZWUwNzU1

Top Odds Of Winning Championship
UW-Stevens Point     17.0%
Babson                      14.5%
Augustana                 13.1%
Randolph-Macon       12.8%
St. Olaf                      7.7%
VA Wesleyan              5.9%
ETBU                         5.8%
Marietta                     5.7%

The Augustana sectional is the most "wide-open" with all 4 teams being of relatively equal strength.  The home court advantage puts Augustana over the top.  Should be some great games on Friday and Saturday
#23
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2015 NCAA Tournament
March 07, 2015, 12:59:02 PM
Updated odds after round 1 yesterday:

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxkM2Jhc2tldGJhbGxpbmRleHxneDoyZjE0NzYwY2VkYjVjZjg5

Big increases for some teams as the top 2 most probable to win it all go down (St. Thomas & UWW).

The most likely to win remaining:
Augustana             12.7%
Randolph-Macon   12.1%
Babson                  11.4 %
UW-Stevens Point  9.6%
St. Olaf                  7.4%
Marietta                 6.2%
Mount Union          4.4%

So, if the trend continues today, look for a few of these to lose tonight.  Should be another great night of games!
#24
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2015 NCAA Tournament
March 05, 2015, 07:04:28 PM
For anyone interested, I simulated the tournament using Massey ratings.  You can see the full results in the attached PDF file (won't let me upload so here is a link to it)

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxkM2Jhc2tldGJhbGxpbmRleHxneDoxZjUwMWM4YTE1Yzg5ZWM5

The way to read the spreadsheet is value is the probability of the team reaching a certain round (last column is probability of winning it all).

Top Chances of Winning Tourney
St. Thomas                                17.3%
UW-Whitewater                          14.9%
UW-Stevens Point                       8.8%
Randolph-Macon                         8.7%
Babson                                        8.6%
Augustana                                   8.6%

From this simulation, I can compare it to a "properly seeded" (according to Massey) tournament to rank the "Easiest" and "Hardest" roads to the Final Four.  Here they are below:

Easiest
Richard Stockton
Trinity (CT)
Endicott
Eastern CT
Salisbury
Dickinson
Johns Hopkins

Hardest
Elmhurst
Ohio Wesleyan
Wash U
IWU
St. Olaf
St. Norbert
CMS
#25
Some probabilities on the race for the #4 seed:

Chance NPU wins outright:  3.5%
Chance of tiebreaker:          10.9%
Chance NCC wins outright:  85.6%

Given NPU's earlier win vs. NCC, they only need to be within 1 game for the final matchup
(NPU win would take the 2-0 H2H tiebreaker)

Chances NPU 1 game behind for final matchup:  23.4%
Chances NPU/NCC tied for final matchup (winner gets in):  9.4%
#26
Updated after tonight's games:

#1 Seed Chance:
IWU - 56.9%
Augie - 23.6%
Elmhurst - 16.6%
NCC - 2.8%

Chance of Making Conf. Tourney:
IWU - 99.9%
Augie - 99.7%
Elmhurst - 98.9%
NCC - 90.4%
NPU - 9.5%
Carthage - 0.8%
Millikin - 0.7%
Wheaton - 0.0%
#27
Re-ran my simulation with the updated numbers.  Large change for the #1 seed as expected and a little bit of hope for those looking to steal that 4th seed from NCC.

Chance of #1 Seed
Augustana  48.4%
IWU           42.6%
Elmhurst     7.3%

Chance of Conf. Tourney
Augustana   99.7%
Carthage     8.6%
Elmhurst     96.4%
IWU           99.5%
Millikin        10.3%
NCC           74.6%
NPU            10.0%
Wheaton      0.8%

Outright #1 seed chance: 69.7%
Avg. 1st place wins:  10.8
Avg. 4th place wins   7.1
#28
Well after more exciting games last night, here are my updated probabilities.  I changed my program a bit to lessen the advantage of the favorites.  It's not strictly a coin flip but closer to it than my last post.  Here is where we stand after 8 games:


Chance of #1 Seed
Augustana - 74.3%
IWU - 22.5%
Elmhurst - 2.5%

Chance of Making Conf. Tourney
Augustana - 100%
IWU - 98.5%
Elmhurst - 91.0%
NCC - 63.8%
Millikin - 20.5%
Carthage - 16.5%
Wheaton - 5.3%
NPU - 4.5%

Chance of Outright Champion - 81.8%
Avg. Wins of #1 seed - 11.2
Avg. Wins of #4 seed - 7.0
#29
I haven't had the time to continue my ranking system the past few years but thought I would quickly run a simulation of the rest of the conference season to see how it may play out.  It simulated the remaining conference games 100,000 times and the following are some stats from the simulation:

NOTE:  Probabilities of winning a future game are not 50-50 but are determined by a Massey-like approach in team strengths.

Chance of Top Seed
Augie - 62.5%
IWU - 21.7%
Elmhurst - 15.5%
NCC - 0.3%

Chance of Conf. Tourney
Augie - 99.4%
IWU - 97.5%
Elmhurst - 96.6%
NCC - 83.1%
Carthage - 16.5%
Millikin - 5.7%
Wheaton - 1.3%
NPU - 0.1%

Avg. Wins of Conf. Champ = 11.7
Avg. Wins of 4th place = 7.5

Chance of Outright Champ = 72.7%
Chance of 2-way tie = 22.4%
Chance of 3-way tie = 4.8%
#30
There are a few Davids floating around in this late set of games tonight