Pool B

Started by Ralph Turner, October 01, 2005, 02:12:36 PM

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HansenRatings

Quote from: smedindy on September 21, 2017, 11:30:52 AM
If Springfield runs the table, they have to get in, so the UMHB / HSU clash may be a B elimination game. (I would say as usual, but that would be off the cuff...)

I also know that's rather premature to think that.

Not TOO premature. Springfield's already sitting at about 50-50 to go undefeated. A 9-1 HSU is getting in through Pool C if they don't make Pool B, though. Only loss versus the defending champ? Yeah... they're getting in.
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Ralph Turner

Quote from: HansenRatings on September 21, 2017, 11:49:00 AM
Quote from: smedindy on September 21, 2017, 11:30:52 AM
If Springfield runs the table, they have to get in, so the UMHB / HSU clash may be a B elimination game. (I would say as usual, but that would be off the cuff...)

I also know that's rather premature to think that.

Not TOO premature. Springfield's already sitting at about 50-50 to go undefeated. A 9-1 HSU is getting in through Pool C if they don't make Pool B, though. Only loss versus the defending champ? Yeah... they're getting in.
https://loghan.shinyapps.io/Season_Projections/

Those are my thought, too.

wally_wabash

Quote from: HansenRatings on September 21, 2017, 11:49:00 AM
Quote from: smedindy on September 21, 2017, 11:30:52 AM
If Springfield runs the table, they have to get in, so the UMHB / HSU clash may be a B elimination game. (I would say as usual, but that would be off the cuff...)

I also know that's rather premature to think that.

Not TOO premature. Springfield's already sitting at about 50-50 to go undefeated. A 9-1 HSU is getting in through Pool C if they don't make Pool B, though. Only loss versus the defending champ? Yeah... they're getting in.
https://loghan.shinyapps.io/Season_Projections/


Same for undefeated Springfield.  They'll go in one way or another.   I believe when Centre was 10-0 and the SAA was still a Pool B conference, they wound up going in through Pool C.  Springfield being in a different region changes the scenario a little bit in that the committee would actually be forced to choose between the hypothetical 9-1 ASC runner up and undefeated Springfield when allocating those Pool B bids.  With the Centre situation, that decision was made for the committee by the South's final regional rankings.  But ultimately, both teams almost certainly go into the field. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

smedindy

Sure, a 9-1 HSU is going to go, but not as a "B".

/splitting hairs
//my specialty

Ralph Turner

The wild scenario is if we have a three-way tie in the ASC at 9-1 overall, 9-1 in-region for UMHB, 8-1 in-region for HSU and SRSU.

Here is the conference policy on three-way tie in football.  Currently UMHB has 16 points. SRSU has zero.  HSU has not competed against SRSU or UMHB.

9.1.2.3 MULTIPLE TIES / FOOTBALL: In the event of a three-way or more tie at first-place in the season standings, the following formula is used to determine the conference automatic qualifier to the NCAA Division III Football Championship. (8/1/2014)
1. Collective win-loss record against other tied teams.
2. Record against each team within the Conference in descending order.
3. Positive points scored against tied teams (maximum capped at 21 points; a loss is zero points).
4. Positive points scored against each team within the Conference in descending order (maximum capped at 21 points; a loss is zero points).
5. Coin toss by the Commissioner.

wally_wabash

But the NCAA regional advisory and national selection committees aren't bound by the ASC's tiebreaking rules.  The South RAC can order those teams however they like in accordance with the NCAA's selection criteria.  The big thing that stands out to me is that UMHB's win at Linfield is a really big chip to play for the NCAA's purposes, but isn't relevant to the ASC's tiebreaking process.  So even if UMHB loses an ASC tiebreak (which I'm not sure why they need to break that tie, unless they don't want to declare co-champions), they're still very likely to have the best profile for NCAA selection and seeding purposes than HSU or SRSU. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Don't forget... NCAA also can use the previous year's tournament success (or lack there of) in their selection process in football. May be relevant.
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Toby Taff

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 21, 2017, 12:53:57 PM
But the NCAA regional advisory and national selection committees aren't bound by the ASC's tiebreaking rules.  The South RAC can order those teams however they like in accordance with the NCAA's selection criteria.  The big thing that stands out to me is that UMHB's win at Linfield is a really big chip to play for the NCAA's purposes, but isn't relevant to the ASC's tiebreaking process.  So even if UMHB loses an ASC tiebreak (which I'm not sure why they need to break that tie, unless they don't want to declare co-champions), they're still very likely to have the best profile for NCAA selection and seeding purposes than HSU or SRSU.
In th case of a 3 way tie all teams would be co champs in the ASC, and since there is no AQ on the line tie break rules don't matter. a 3 way tie would make for an interesting selection though
My wife and I are Alumni of both UMHB and HSU.  You think you are confused, my kids don't know which Purple and Gold team to pull for.

wally_wabash

Quote from: Toby Taff on September 21, 2017, 01:32:16 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on September 21, 2017, 12:53:57 PM
But the NCAA regional advisory and national selection committees aren't bound by the ASC's tiebreaking rules.  The South RAC can order those teams however they like in accordance with the NCAA's selection criteria.  The big thing that stands out to me is that UMHB's win at Linfield is a really big chip to play for the NCAA's purposes, but isn't relevant to the ASC's tiebreaking process.  So even if UMHB loses an ASC tiebreak (which I'm not sure why they need to break that tie, unless they don't want to declare co-champions), they're still very likely to have the best profile for NCAA selection and seeding purposes than HSU or SRSU.
In th case of a 3 way tie all teams would be co champs in the ASC, and since there is no AQ on the line tie break rules don't matter. a 3 way tie would make for an interesting selection though

Agreed that it is a pretty spicy hypothetical on first glance.  The Linfield win is a trump card here, iyam.  And once you've separated UMHB, the regional committee ought to be able to separate HSU/SRSU (or ETBU or whoever else might be in the three way tie) given the h2h result between the two.  So I actually think the at-large pecking order for the ASC teams sorts itself out relatively cleanly. 

Following this down the rabbit hole a little further, maybe the South RAC wants to get cute with their rankings and place the team with the worst at-large profile at the top of the list.  The worst of the ASC co-champs probably still compares favorably to even an undefeated Springfield (this is a worst case scenario for the ASC teams)...but would still go in as one of the two Pool B teams.  Then, you kind of assume that UMHB would go in very early in the Pool C process, bringing that third ASC team to the table.  THAT team, (presumably the one that beat UMHB and lost to the first ASC team selected in Pool B), has a juicy UMHB chip to play and stands a very good chance at also being selected.  Voila...three ASC teams in the tournament and Ralph does a happy dance.   :)

For the record, I don't at all condone purposefully ordering the teams this way (read: incorrectly) in order to maximize at-large bids for a conference or a region.  I don't think that's in the spirit of the regional rankings or the tournament.  I hope this isn't a thing that happens...but it's definitely plausible.   
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Pat Coleman

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on September 21, 2017, 01:27:08 PM
Don't forget... NCAA also can use the previous year's tournament success (or lack there of) in their selection process in football. May be relevant.

Actually, this is for seeding purposes only, not for selection. And it only comes into effect when breaking ties among unbeaten teams.
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Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 21, 2017, 02:27:26 PM
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on September 21, 2017, 01:27:08 PM
Don't forget... NCAA also can use the previous year's tournament success (or lack there of) in their selection process in football. May be relevant.

Actually, this is for seeding purposes only, not for selection. And it only comes into effect when breaking ties among unbeaten teams.

Don't ruin my theory, PAT! LOL Sorry... I always misread that when looking it up. Always think it is selections as well.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 21, 2017, 12:53:57 PM
But the NCAA regional advisory and national selection committees aren't bound by the ASC's tiebreaking rules.  The South RAC can order those teams however they like in accordance with the NCAA's selection criteria.  The big thing that stands out to me is that UMHB's win at Linfield is a really big chip to play for the NCAA's purposes, but isn't relevant to the ASC's tiebreaking process.  So even if UMHB loses an ASC tiebreak (which I'm not sure why they need to break that tie, unless they don't want to declare co-champions), they're still very likely to have the best profile for NCAA selection and seeding purposes than HSU or SRSU.
+1!

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Toby Taff on September 21, 2017, 01:32:16 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on September 21, 2017, 12:53:57 PM
But the NCAA regional advisory and national selection committees aren't bound by the ASC's tiebreaking rules.  The South RAC can order those teams however they like in accordance with the NCAA's selection criteria.  The big thing that stands out to me is that UMHB's win at Linfield is a really big chip to play for the NCAA's purposes, but isn't relevant to the ASC's tiebreaking process.  So even if UMHB loses an ASC tiebreak (which I'm not sure why they need to break that tie, unless they don't want to declare co-champions), they're still very likely to have the best profile for NCAA selection and seeding purposes than HSU or SRSU.
In th case of a 3 way tie all teams would be co champs in the ASC, and since there is no AQ on the line tie break rules don't matter. a 3 way tie would make for an interesting selection though
+1!  (My bad. No AQ!)

Ralph Turner

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 21, 2017, 02:01:25 PM
Quote from: Toby Taff on September 21, 2017, 01:32:16 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on September 21, 2017, 12:53:57 PM
But the NCAA regional advisory and national selection committees aren't bound by the ASC's tiebreaking rules.  The South RAC can order those teams however they like in accordance with the NCAA's selection criteria.  The big thing that stands out to me is that UMHB's win at Linfield is a really big chip to play for the NCAA's purposes, but isn't relevant to the ASC's tiebreaking process.  So even if UMHB loses an ASC tiebreak (which I'm not sure why they need to break that tie, unless they don't want to declare co-champions), they're still very likely to have the best profile for NCAA selection and seeding purposes than HSU or SRSU.
In th case of a 3 way tie all teams would be co champs in the ASC, and since there is no AQ on the line tie break rules don't matter. a 3 way tie would make for an interesting selection though

Agreed that it is a pretty spicy hypothetical on first glance.  The Linfield win is a trump card here, iyam.  And once you've separated UMHB, the regional committee ought to be able to separate HSU/SRSU (or ETBU or whoever else might be in the three way tie) given the h2h result between the two.  So I actually think the at-large pecking order for the ASC teams sorts itself out relatively cleanly. 

Following this down the rabbit hole a little further, maybe the South RAC wants to get cute with their rankings and place the team with the worst at-large profile at the top of the list.  The worst of the ASC co-champs probably still compares favorably to even an undefeated Springfield (this is a worst case scenario for the ASC teams)...but would still go in as one of the two Pool B teams.  Then, you kind of assume that UMHB would go in very early in the Pool C process, bringing that third ASC team to the table.  THAT team, (presumably the one that beat UMHB and lost to the first ASC team selected in Pool B), has a juicy UMHB chip to play and stands a very good chance at also being selected.  Voila...three ASC teams in the tournament and Ralph does a happy dance.   :)

For the record, I don't at all condone purposefully ordering the teams this way (read: incorrectly) in order to maximize at-large bids for a conference or a region.  I don't think that's in the spirit of the regional rankings or the tournament.  I hope this isn't a thing that happens...but it's definitely plausible.
+1! 

First round games!

In that case, you have one travel orphan to fill to or from wherever.

jknezek

Dear lord people. It's week 3. Many teams haven't played a conference game yet. There is plenty of time to hit up playoff scenarios when we at least hit October.

This is like people who hang up Christmas decorations and play Christmas music before Halloween. You shouldn't need a license to use their bones as Halloween decorations...