Pool C -- 2012

Started by wally_wabash, August 31, 2012, 11:19:36 AM

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wally_wabash

Quote from: K-Mack on October 20, 2012, 11:11:04 PM
Quote from: hazzben on October 20, 2012, 06:13:57 PM
OWU v. Wabash next week is a big one. Weird scenario if Wabash wins. 3 NCAC teams with one loss, but Wittenberg won't play OWU.

They'll wish they had. Playing another team with a great record is a chance for a win over a regionally ranked opponent, and a big boost to SoS.

If I've done my NCAC homework and math correctly, if we do wind up with a Wabash/OWU/Witt tie atop the conference, Wabash goes to Pool A.  Wittenberg is in tough position.  Right now, Witt has a 0.008 advantage over OWU on SOS, which isn't much.  Witt's SOS is about to nosedive (Denison, Hiram, and Oberlin are left for the Tigers).  OWU will get a big boost next week, and then will more or less hold steady the final two weeks.  Plus, OWU has a win over Carnegie Mellon who may get into a regional ranking before this thing is over with.  Witt will not have any such win this season. 
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Pat Coleman

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 20, 2012, 10:55:02 PM
CWRU was very obviously kept out of last year's tournament because they lost an out of region game.

Let's just remember, while we're revising history here, that Case lost to a team that St. John Fisher beat. Without the common opponent, might not be having this conversation again and again.
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wally_wabash

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 20, 2012, 11:30:50 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 20, 2012, 10:55:02 PM
CWRU was very obviously kept out of last year's tournament because they lost an out of region game.

Let's just remember, while we're revising history here, that Case lost to a team that St. John Fisher beat. Without the common opponent, might not be having this conversation again and again.

That's an excellent point and certainly one giant reason why SJF was in and CWRU was not.  I think most of us believe the out of region loss counted against them in comparison to Illinois College, as it should have I believe. 
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K-Mack

Also, pre-empting any wally criticism ... these are the as-of-today rankings. Huntingdon is in Pool C now, but will either bump into Pool B or likely out entirely after the Wesley game, for example. Yes, he knows this.  ;D
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PA_wesleyfan

Birmingham So loss today doesn't help Wesley or Huntingdon. The first rankings will tell us more  regional
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HScoach

I know the above analysis is based on today's SoS numbers, but Heidelberg's will improve over the last 3 weeks.  Still won't be a strong schedule, but won't the absolute junk that it is right now after they play the final 3 against:
Mount Union 7-0
John Carroll 5-2
Baldwin Wallace 6-1

H'Berg is having a great season, especially rising from the ashes of their 32 game losing streak when Hallett took over, but there is no guarantee they finish 9-1 with the schedule so back loaded.  The biggest test for them in my mind is not letting the hangover from the Mount game affect them the next week against JCU. 
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SUADC

#81
I know Wally has come up with an good detail of the criteria and what not. Nevertheless, I came up with a list of teams that are still in the hunt, even though for some it may take the world flipping upside down to happen.

East undefeated teams: Hobart & Widener
West undefeated teams: UW-O, Linfield, UST, & Coe
South undefeated teams: UMHB, Johns Hopkins, & Waynesburg
North undefeated teams: MUC, Concordia-Chicago, Ohio Wesleyan, & Heidelberg

East one loss teams: Salisbury, Cortland State, Mount Ida, Framingham State, Bridgewater State, Rowan,  & Salve Regina
West one loss teams:  Bethel, Cal Lutheran, Lake Forest, Willamette, Northwestern (Minn.), & Concordia-Moorhead
South one loss teams: Wesley, F&M, Huntingdon, & Millsaps
North one loss teams: North Central (Ill.), Elmhurst, Illinois Wesleyan, Adrian, Wabash, Wittenberg, & Baldwin Wallace, & Franklin

East two loss teams:  Kean, SJF, RPI, Utica, Alfred, Castleton State, Gallaudet, Norwich, Delaware Valley, Lycoming, Albright, Lebanon Valley,  & Endicott
West two loss teams: UW-W, Simpson, Wartburg, St. Norbert, Carroll, Pacific Lutheran, Whitworth, Chapman, St. Scholastica, St. Olaf, & Augsburg
South two loss teams: Louisiana College, Gettysburg, Muhlenberg, Ursinus, Carnegie Mellon, H-SC, W&L, Bridgewater (Va.), W&J, Centre, & Ferrum
North two loss teams: Wheaton, Hanover, Albion, Wisconsin Lutheran, John Carroll, Otterbein, & Greenville

Notables with more than two losses: CNU, La Verne, Redlands, Guilford, Kenyon, Allegheny, Concordia (Wis.), Monmouth, Trine, Union (N.Y.) & Hardin-Simmons.

K-Mack

Wow. I could have saved you a lot of trouble by posting my work for last week's column. I updated it before casting my ballot this week.

That said, you have it broken down by region. I have it sorted with details on who the losses are against. I'm also partway finished updating it with quality wins, which sometimes get overlooked in all of our talk about one-loss and two-loss teams.

Also Rowan and Franklin are in the subtract one non-division loss club. For our purposes, both should be in the one-loss groups, even though they technically have two.
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SUADC

Quote from: K-Mack on October 21, 2012, 07:27:01 PM
Also Rowan and Franklin are in the subtract one non-division loss club. For our purposes, both should be in the one-loss groups, even though they technically have two.

Yeah, that's true. Does the committee take those Non-D3 games into consideration at all?

Ralph Turner

Quote from: SUADC on October 21, 2012, 10:50:30 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on October 21, 2012, 07:27:01 PM
Also Rowan and Franklin are in the subtract one non-division loss club. For our purposes, both should be in the one-loss groups, even though they technically have two.

Yeah, that's true. Does the committee take those Non-D3 games into consideration at all?
Yes, as secondary criteria, if primary criteria does not give sufficent guidance.

wally_wabash

Still waiting to see a handbook published by the NCAA, but we are closing in on some important dates.  We should see the first regional rankings published next Wednesday (10/31).  It was an important choice that was made last year to reduce the number of regional rankings from four to two.  Before last year, we would have seen regional rankings prior to the 10/20 games.  CMU may have been ranked.  Birmingham Southern may have been ranked.  RPI and Alfred may have been ranked.  Chapman may have been ranked.  Otterbein would have been ranked (would be huge for Heidelberg).  That's a lot of results against regionally ranked teams that never get factored in now.  Certainly some of those teams may still wind up in a ranking before we get through week 11, but many will not and that affects the résumés of a lot of at-large teams. 

Quote from: HScoach on October 21, 2012, 09:03:44 AM
H'Berg is having a great season, especially rising from the ashes of their 32 game losing streak when Hallett took over, but there is no guarantee they finish 9-1 with the schedule so back loaded.  The biggest test for them in my mind is not letting the hangover from the Mount game affect them the next week against JCU. 

Absolutely.  The OAC is a JCU or B-W win over H'berg away from sending just one team to the tournament.   Tying in to my point above, Heidelberg does get a bonus by the timing of the B-W/Mount Union game. B-W will be regionally ranked before they get fed to the beast on 11/3...probaby not afterward though.  If B-W plays Mount Union earlier in the season, Heidelberg may not get a chance to have a win over a regionally ranked team. 
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Ralph Turner

I prefer Regional Rankings occurring four times and starting after Week #8. IMHO, it builds excitement and "buzz".

I don't mind that several teams are listed one-time in the rankings.  It gives more teams against whom you can compare in-region records.

The isolated parts of the country have very little overlap.  Also, conferences are getting bigger and trying to max out at 10-teams so that the schedules are easier to fill.  That leaves very few non-conference games. I would like to see a regional ranking after Week #8 and have four rankings to give me 12-13 teams that may have been ranked at least once. Since we only list the Top10 teams, you have already focused on the 4-6 teams that are fighting for Pool C bids. (Wesley has almost taken Pool B off the table.)

As for specifics, Chapman may not have been #10 at 4-2 after Week #8!  The teams that fade will be seen for that. The teams that fall out after week #8 and #9 are just off the radar, at #11 and #12 or even #13, and we know who they are.

smedindy

I think the South's "B" candidates self-cannibalization is going to hurt them vis-a-vis the regional rankings. BSC no longer in contention to be ranked. Millsaps may have one loss but no wins against RR opponents if Trinity doesn't get ranked. Centre probably won't be RRd.

jknezek

Quote from: smedindy on October 22, 2012, 04:09:22 PM
I think the South's "B" candidates self-cannibalization is going to hurt them vis-a-vis the regional rankings. BSC no longer in contention to be ranked. Millsaps may have one loss but no wins against RR opponents if Trinity doesn't get ranked. Centre probably won't be RRd.

Completely agree with this. The south has imploded amongst the B grouping. Huntingdon lost to BSC and has to play Wesley, BSC lost to Trinity, Wesley and Sewanee?, Wesley lost to UMHB, Trinity lost to UMHB, SRSU, and Centre, Centre lost to W&L and Millsaps, Millsaps lost to Huntingdon and still has to go to Trinity, and CMU lost to both good teams they faced so far...

It was going to be a really strong B/C candidate group if only 1 team was able to put it together. Now it is Wesley's B to lose against Huntingdon, or Huntingdon's to win against Wesley thanks to B-SC imploding, and other than Millsaps, who needs to go to San Antonio to win, there isn't a "C" candidate in the bunch. A 2 loss Huntingdon might be ok if B-SC hadn't imploded, but of course if B-SC hadn't imploded they would have been a C candidate.

A very strange year. CNU loses to LaGrange muddling the USAS, the ODAC is a mess of mediocrity, the PAC is just... odd. I mean, I keep voting for Waynesberg because they don't lose, but they haven't beat anyone and they barely beat everyone they've played. Close game after close game for them, but they keep winning. Outside of UMHB, Wesley, and Johns Hopkins, it just seems like the south is full of teams that can't put it together.

K-Mack

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 22, 2012, 10:42:02 AM
Quote from: SUADC on October 21, 2012, 10:50:30 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on October 21, 2012, 07:27:01 PM
Also Rowan and Franklin are in the subtract one non-division loss club. For our purposes, both should be in the one-loss groups, even though they technically have two.

Yeah, that's true. Does the committee take those Non-D3 games into consideration at all?
Yes, as secondary criteria, if primary criteria does not give sufficent guidance.

And, in effect they are considered one way or the other when the language says "winning percentage against regional opponents."

In other words, the result might not be directly considered, but if one team is 9-1 against in-region D-IIIs and another is 7-1, it can be taken into consideration, but I can't think of a time when that's been the tipping point. The committees seem to understand the difficulties of scheduling games and just work with the data they have available.
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