Pool C -- 2012

Started by wally_wabash, August 31, 2012, 11:19:36 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

wally_wabash

Quote from: d-train on October 31, 2012, 07:18:50 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on October 31, 2012, 07:06:21 PM
I don't think eyes should be on the Cobbers. More like if Lake Forest or UW-Platteville loses, maybe in next week's rankings, Willamette will be the No. 10, and PLU would have a win over a RRO on its resume.
Okay, we'll see.  UW-P's final two have two league wins between them.  Lake Forest doesn't play until the 10th.

What really stinks: if LC beats HSU, that counts as a win over a RRO even if though that would be the Cowboys 4th loss.  PLU could have victories over 8-2 Willamette, 7-3 Whitworth, and 6-3 Redlands that would (aparently) not mean as much because the West is deeper.

That would seem to be the case, which stinks, but they have to draw a line somewhere.  And who knows...this year's committee may value PLU's schedule and select them in front of a team like Elmhurst or Heidelberg or Rowan.  That's the unpredictable part of the equation...never know who the committee's groupthink will play out. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wesleydad

wally, nice work on all this.  going to throw a what if out there in the east.  what if del val beats widener to win the mac, would widener bump the last team out?

wally_wabash

Quote from: wesleydad on October 31, 2012, 09:11:30 PM
wally, nice work on all this.  going to throw a what if out there in the east.  what if del val beats widener to win the mac, would widener bump the last team out?

My guess would be yes.  Widener may still be in front of Rowan in that scenario, so Widener would probably come off the board in front of Huntingdon, which would put Rowan on the board and then it flows down from there, essentially pushing Heidelberg out.  If Rowan were to be ahead of Widener, I'd think Widener would come off after the Rowan pick in the seventh round there.  Widener certainly wouldn't fall any further back in the rankings than that as they'd have to be ahead of Lycoming. 

Pool C teams right now don't want to see new players here, like Widener or St. Thomas.  Pool C teams would also hope that the NCAC applies things like logic and reason to a possible Wabash/OWU/Wittenberg tie and award Wabash the AQ.  Good two loss teams could get in over those two if it came to that. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Mr. Ypsi

This may or may not be relevant to pool C, but I noted on the NJAC board that the Cortland @ Willy Pat game for Saturday has been canceled (and will not be re-scheduled) due to aftereffects of 'Frankenstorm'.  Any word on any other cancellations?  Any stadia that might have hosted tourney games too badly damaged to host?

K-Mack

Damn dude.

I guess I'd be wasting my time doing essentially the same exercise for Around the Nation.

Instead of feeling like I got my Halloween candy taken though, I'll look at it like we've educated fans enough over the years that no longer are we needed to do these exercises when those with the time to beat us to it can do it, and credibly.

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2012, 07:20:32 PM
Wow, lots of chatter here.  My projection has already been buried!  Here's a link to that post if you want it: Wally's projected field of 32

Here are just my pool C picks...how I got there to follow:

QuoteWabash (7-1, 0.607 SOS, 2-0 vs RRO)
Bethel (7-1, 0.658 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
Concordia-Moorhead (7-1, .577 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Huntingdon (5-2, .605 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
Elmhurst (7-1, 0.545 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Rowan (6-2...6-1 in D3, 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Heidelberg (7-1, 0.430 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)

Round 1: On the board are...
- 4N Wabash (7-1, 0.607 SOS, 2-0 vs RRO)
- 5S Huntingdon (5-2, .605 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
- 4E Rowan (6-2...6-1 in D3, 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 4W Bethel (7-1, 0.658 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)

Bethel leads in SOS amongst this group, but Wabash also has a stong SOS and has two RRO wins.  No common opponents or head to heads to consider here.  Wabash is the pick. 

Round 2: On the board are...
- 5N Elmhurst (7-1, 0.545 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 5S Huntingdon (5-2, .605 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
- 4E Rowan (6-2...6-1 in D3, 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 4W Bethel (7-1, 0.658 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)

Bethel was close to being the first pick, so we know they look better than Huntingdon and Rowan.  Newbie Elmhurst doesn't grade out as well as Bethel, so the Royals are in.  Bethel has the best SOS here plus a RRO win. 

Round 3: On the board are...
- 5N Elmhurst (7-1, 0.545 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 5S Huntingdon (5-2, .605 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
- 4E Rowan (6-2...6-1 in D3, 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 5W Concordia-Moorhead (7-1, .577 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)

It gets fun here because now we have to start considering multiple loss teams with good SOS's and good wins.  Huntingdon caught a huge break with Hampden-Sydney being ranked.  My pick here is going to be Concordia-Moorhead.  I'm favoring the win pct and the SOS over Huntingdon's RRO win and I think Concordia-Moorhead probably gets some special dispensation for the Bethel incident. 

Round 4: On the board are...

- 5N Elmhurst (7-1, 0.545 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 5S Huntingdon (5-2, .605 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
- 4E Rowan (6-2...6-1 in D3, 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 8W Pacific Lutheran (5-2, 0.612 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)

It's your time Huntingdon.  The SOS is strong, the quality win is there which the rest of the teams lack.  Huntingdon gets favored here over the 1-loss teams because of the SOS and RRO win.  PLU, which will be a common theme, really needed Willamette to get into the rankings. 

Round 5: On the board are...

- 5N Elmhurst (7-1, 0.545 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 7S Louisiana College (6-2, 0.554 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)
- 4E Rowan (6-2...6-1 in D3, 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 8W Pacific Lutheran (5-2, 0.612 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)

I'm out of teams with good wins.  So now I kind of default back to win pct and SOS.  If you've got 2 losses and no good wins, you kind of drift to the back here.  Elmhurst is my selection with one loss and a better SOS than Rowan. 

Round 6: On the board are...

- 6N Heidelberg (7-1, 0.430 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 7S Louisiana College (6-2, 0.554 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)
- 4E Rowan (6-2...6-1 in D3, 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 8W Pacific Lutheran (5-2, 0.612 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)

Our new player doesn't have a quality win, so by the same logic as Round 5, Rowan is the selection...just one loss, better SOS than the other one loss team here. 

Round 7: On the board are...
- 6N Heidelberg (7-1, 0.430 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 7S Louisiana College (6-2, 0.554 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)
- 6E Lycoming (6-2, 0.577 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 8W Pacific Lutheran (5-2, 0.612 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)

Again, my two loss teams available are without a quality win.  Heidelberg has just the one loss, that to Mount Union, so I'm selecting Heidelberg based primarily on win pct here. 

So that's how I got where I got.  I think the first six picks are pretty solid.  I think there is a debate to be had about whether or not PLU or Louisiana College could be selected instead of Heidelberg based on SOS and "results" vs. RRO. 

It's amazing how much this changes if Hampden-Sydney is not ranked and Willamette is.  Huntingdon probably falls behind LC in the South and never hits the board while PLU is probably picked up on the 4th or 5th selection.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

K-Mack

Quote from: wesleydad on October 31, 2012, 09:11:30 PM
wally, nice work on all this.  going to throw a what if out there in the east.  what if del val beats widener to win the mac, would widener bump the last team out?

I think so.

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 31, 2012, 09:47:23 PM
This may or may not be relevant to pool C, but I noted on the NJAC board that the Cortland @ Willy Pat game for Saturday has been canceled (and will not be re-scheduled) due to aftereffects of 'Frankenstorm'.  Any word on any other cancellations?  Any stadia that might have hosted tourney games too badly damaged to host?

It's not relevant, and I am asking around. So far three games affected but just the one cancelled. Looking at the map and where Sandy hit, really SUNY-Maritime is the one I think might have gotten it the worst, and I'd like to check in with them if possible.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

Ralph Turner

#261
If Louisiana College beats HSU on 11/10, that will be the 3rd game against RRO. They will be 1-2 versus RRO.

K-Mack

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2012, 07:57:07 PM
Quote from: d-train on October 31, 2012, 07:18:50 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on October 31, 2012, 07:06:21 PM
I don't think eyes should be on the Cobbers. More like if Lake Forest or UW-Platteville loses, maybe in next week's rankings, Willamette will be the No. 10, and PLU would have a win over a RRO on its resume.
Okay, we'll see.  UW-P's final two have two league wins between them.  Lake Forest doesn't play until the 10th.

What really stinks: if LC beats HSU, that counts as a win over a RRO even if though that would be the Cowboys 4th loss.  PLU could have victories over 8-2 Willamette, 7-3 Whitworth, and 6-3 Redlands that would (aparently) not mean as much because the West is deeper.

That would seem to be the case, which stinks, but they have to draw a line somewhere.  And who knows...this year's committee may value PLU's schedule and select them in front of a team like Elmhurst or Heidelberg or Rowan.  That's the unpredictable part of the equation...never know who the committee's groupthink will play out.

I don't agree re: Hardin-Simmons. They would have losses to UMHB (No. 2), Linfield (No. 3), Willamette and LC, which so far are two-loss teams who are in the playoff discussion. They will have essentially scheduled themselves out of the playoff discussion by playing Linfield and Willamette, but also a win against one or two of those teams and they are sitting pretty.

Having watched much of the UMHB-HSU game, I can say that the Cowboys would beat IMO a handful of teams who are going to make the field. It's not at all an injustice to have them in the 10 spot as of today, even though they don't really have a signature win (and that is a problem for a lot of teams who won't get selected, but since HSU isn't on the cusp, I don't think there's the same outrage).

Basically if HSU had scheduled Southwest Assemblies of God and Haskell Indian Nations instead of trying to challenge itself by playing Linfield and Willamette, they would be 7-1 right now and playing LC for a chance to remain in the Pool C discussion.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: K-Mack on October 31, 2012, 10:09:39 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2012, 07:57:07 PM
Quote from: d-train on October 31, 2012, 07:18:50 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on October 31, 2012, 07:06:21 PM
I don't think eyes should be on the Cobbers. More like if Lake Forest or UW-Platteville loses, maybe in next week's rankings, Willamette will be the No. 10, and PLU would have a win over a RRO on its resume.
Okay, we'll see.  UW-P's final two have two league wins between them.  Lake Forest doesn't play until the 10th.

What really stinks: if LC beats HSU, that counts as a win over a RRO even if though that would be the Cowboys 4th loss.  PLU could have victories over 8-2 Willamette, 7-3 Whitworth, and 6-3 Redlands that would (aparently) not mean as much because the West is deeper.

That would seem to be the case, which stinks, but they have to draw a line somewhere.  And who knows...this year's committee may value PLU's schedule and select them in front of a team like Elmhurst or Heidelberg or Rowan.  That's the unpredictable part of the equation...never know who the committee's groupthink will play out.

I don't agree re: Hardin-Simmons. They would have losses to UMHB (No. 2), Linfield (No. 3), Willamette and LC, which so far are two-loss teams who are in the playoff discussion. They will have essentially scheduled themselves out of the playoff discussion by playing Linfield and Willamette, but also a win against one or two of those teams and they are sitting pretty.

Having watched much of the UMHB-HSU game, I can say that the Cowboys would beat IMO a handful of teams who are going to make the field. It's not at all an injustice to have them in the 10 spot as of today, even though they don't really have a signature win (and that is a problem for a lot of teams who won't get selected, but since HSU isn't on the cusp, I don't think there's the same outrage).

Basically if HSU had scheduled Southwest Assemblies of God and Haskell Indian Nations instead of trying to challenge itself by playing Linfield and Willamette, they would be 7-1 right now and playing LC for a chance to remain in the Pool C discussion.
And saved the athletic department a boat-load of change!

wesleydad

Quote from: K-Mack on October 31, 2012, 10:05:05 PM
Quote from: wesleydad on October 31, 2012, 09:11:30 PM
wally, nice work on all this.  going to throw a what if out there in the east.  what if del val beats widener to win the mac, would widener bump the last team out?

I think so.

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 31, 2012, 09:47:23 PM
This may or may not be relevant to pool C, but I noted on the NJAC board that the Cortland @ Willy Pat game for Saturday has been canceled (and will not be re-scheduled) due to aftereffects of 'Frankenstorm'.  Any word on any other cancellations?  Any stadia that might have hosted tourney games too badly damaged to host?

It's not relevant, and I am asking around. So far three games affected but just the one cancelled. Looking at the map and where Sandy hit, really SUNY-Maritime is the one I think might have gotten it the worst, and I'd like to check in with them if possible.

rowan website has game being changed to sunday at 12.

K-Mack

Quote from: wesleydad on October 31, 2012, 10:31:00 PM
Quote from: K-Mack on October 31, 2012, 10:05:05 PM
Quote from: wesleydad on October 31, 2012, 09:11:30 PM
wally, nice work on all this.  going to throw a what if out there in the east.  what if del val beats widener to win the mac, would widener bump the last team out?

I think so.

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 31, 2012, 09:47:23 PM
This may or may not be relevant to pool C, but I noted on the NJAC board that the Cortland @ Willy Pat game for Saturday has been canceled (and will not be re-scheduled) due to aftereffects of 'Frankenstorm'.  Any word on any other cancellations?  Any stadia that might have hosted tourney games too badly damaged to host?

It's not relevant, and I am asking around. So far three games affected but just the one cancelled. Looking at the map and where Sandy hit, really SUNY-Maritime is the one I think might have gotten it the worst, and I'd like to check in with them if possible.

rowan website has game being changed to sunday at 12.

That's one of the three. The others that I am aware of are SUNY-M vs. Norwich and Cortland State/WPU.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

K-Mack

Just saw the tweets about FDU-F and Widener. Make it four that I'm aware of.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

desertcat1

Quote from: K-Mack on October 31, 2012, 07:13:10 PM
Quote from: desertcat1 on October 31, 2012, 03:32:49 PM
they had a big surprise with two flights last year?  who knows what can happen this year.  8-)

They were pushing to be allowed to do this for a few years, and word it was coming. There was the year Aurora was supposed to go to Willamette or Oxy and got sent to Wartburg instead, we think because the person who approves costs rejected the committee's original bracket. The sense then was that they should be allowed to afford a second flight to keep the competitive balance a little closer, and I think the D-III membership wanted it.

Sometimes circumstances will make multiple flights necessary, but also I think the flexibility is there for when it's not completely necessary, to make it so that the seeds don't have to be stretch too badly. We might still see some 3-5 games instead of 3-6, but when it's 7vs.8 and 1vs.3, that's not good. Or fair.

we have already been there .. :'( 
" If you are going to be a bear, be a Grizzly"

C.W. Smith

pg04

Wally, Everything you are doing here is superb. It's awesome to read as a D3 fan and I am glad someone is so dedicated to take the time to do that on these boards. I can't believe your karma isn't through the roof (not that it matters). Lots of +K from me coming!

K-Mack

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2012, 09:23:38 PM
Pool C teams right now don't want to see new players here, like Widener or St. Thomas.  Pool C teams would also hope that the NCAC applies things like logic and reason to a possible Wabash/OWU/Wittenberg tie and award Wabash the AQ.  Good two loss teams could get in over those two if it came to that.

St. Thomas wouldn't affect things all that much since either C-Moorhead or Bethel would be replacing them, and you're currently taking both of them. Same with whoever wins the NCAC AQ; the second team seems to be in good enough shape that the two-loss teams at the bottom of Pool C wouldn't be affected either way.

Widener, however, would be a problem because that's putting Del Val (or Lyco) in the field, a team that currently isn't there, and then handing an undefeated team its first loss. Widener, now a game short with the cancellation of FDU-F, actually benefits a little in terms of SoS but that number would still be bad, I'm guessing.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.