Pool B

Started by Ralph Turner, October 01, 2005, 02:12:36 PM

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dahlby

Ralph,
Chapman is officially a member of the SCIAC. This year Chapman is ineligible for the conference championship (a SCIAC, not NCAA) policy. IMHO, this being the case, I think that Chapman will drop to a Pool C. With all due respect.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: dahlby on September 05, 2011, 11:37:04 AM
Ralph,
Chapman is officially a member of the SCIAC. This year Chapman is ineligible for the conference championship (a SCIAC, not NCAA) policy. IMHO, this being the case, I think that Chapman will drop to a Pool C. With all due respect.
Okay!  I was unclear as to how the NCAA would handle Chapman as I had not seen any of the Handbooks.

PA_wesleyfan

Wesley plays Huntingdon in Dover Nov 12 could big for a bid!!
Football !!! The ultimate team sport. Anyone who plays DIII football is a winner...

Hawks88

Quote from: PA_wesleyfan on September 05, 2011, 06:08:40 PM
Wesley plays Huntingdon in Dover Nov 12 could big for a bid!!
As awesome as that would be, it's way early for us to even dream of that game being for a bid especially with our schedule.

altor

#799
Handbook posted.
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/champ_handbooks/football/2011/2011_3_football.pdf

Pool B - 1 "berth"
Case Western Reserve University
University of Chicago
Macalester College
Nebraska Wesleyan University*
Carnegie Mellon University
DePauw University**
Huntingdon College
La Grange College
Washington University (Missouri)
Wesley College

*while technically in Pool B, NWU is not really eligible for a bid because they do not play enough in-region games (unless they have received a waiver?).

** I find it funny that DePauw is still in the South Region.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: altor on October 02, 2011, 09:40:06 PM
Handbook posted.
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/champ_handbooks/football/2011/2011_3_football.pdf

Pool B - 1 "berth"
UAA-4
Case Western Reserve University
University of Chicago
Carnegie Mellon University
Washington University (Missouri)

Macalester College

Nebraska Wesleyan University*

Wesley College

DePauw University -- NCAC in 2012

Huntingdon College

La Grange College -- USA South in 2012

*while technically in Pool B, NWU is not really eligible for a bid because they do not play enough in-region games (unless they have received a waiver?).

** I find it funny that DePauw is still in the South Region.
7 schools in 2012.

Pat Coleman

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Ralph Turner

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2011, 12:18:24 AM
Quote from: altor on October 02, 2011, 09:40:06 PM
Handbook posted.
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/champ_handbooks/football/2011/2011_3_football.pdf

Pool B - 1 "berth"
UAA-4
Case Western Reserve University
University of Chicago
Carnegie Mellon University
Washington University (Missouri)

Macalester College

Nebraska Wesleyan University*

Wesley College

DePauw University -- NCAC in 2012

Huntingdon College

La Grange College -- USA South in 2012

*while technically in Pool B, NWU is not really eligible for a bid because they do not play enough in-region games (unless they have received a waiver?).

** I find it funny that DePauw is still in the South Region.
7 schools in 2012.
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 03, 2011, 02:04:11 AM
Plus the SCAC.
My bad!  Thanks.  Plus 5 more SAA schools and the 2 remaining SCAC schools.   14 schools, 1 Pool B bid.

The SCAC's Pool A bid moves to Pool C.

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: altor on October 02, 2011, 09:40:06 PM
Pool B - 1 "berth"
Case Western Reserve University
University of Chicago
Macalester College
Nebraska Wesleyan University*
Carnegie Mellon University
DePauw University**
Huntingdon College
La Grange College
Washington University (Missouri)
Wesley College

Well, let's rank Pool B from top to bottom, shall we?  Note: This list is ordered by "likelihood of earning the Pool B berth" rather than by "best team" (although the only change I'd make would be flip-flopping #2 and #3).

1. Wesley College (6-1): Traditional powerhouse has not done itself any favors with an early-season loss to Kean.  While they have dominated recently, Wesley has two things working against it: first, a shortage of games against Division III opponents (which will hurt the regional record) and second, they still have two pretty tough games left with a 7-0 Salisbury team that's rolled through a few decent opponents and then closing with #3 on this list.

2. Case Western Reserve University (6-1): It hasn't always been pretty, but CWRU's run of success continues this season.  The UAA does appear pretty balanced, and I would not be AT ALL surprised if one of the schools from #4-6 on this list defeat Case Western in conference play.  However, at the moment, CWRU might well control its own fate; if they should win out, they will be 9-1 and might be a better "on paper" candidate than Wesley (although I think Wesley is the far better team on the field).

3. Huntingdon College (6-2): Unfortunately, the loss to Trinity probably takes Huntingdon's fate out of their hands unless CWRU stumbles.  With that said, if CWRU does stumble, then Huntingdon will play Wesley on 11/12 with a chance to stake their claim to the Pool B berth.

Realistically, those are the only teams with any chance at a Pool B berth.

4. University of Chicago (5-2): I suppose that it is vaguely possible for Chicago to sneak into this mix if they run the table in the UAA (which could happen) AND if Wesley loses to Salisbury and Huntingdon.  I wouldn't count on it, and even if both of those did happen they might not be any better-looking on paper than 8-2 Wesley, Huntingon, CWRU.

5. Carnegie Mellon University (4-3)
6. Washington University (4-3)

Both of the above are out of the Pool B hunt, but obviously could play spoiler vs. CWRU in the coming weeks.

7. Macalester College (3-4)
8. La Grange College (2-5)
9. DePauw University (2-4) - what a fall for the Tigers.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

ADL70

Thnx for the analysis XTP

To me even if CWRU wins out (hardly a foregone conclusion); Wesley, if it beats Salisbury and Huntington, has a much superior resume,  And Huntingdon, if it beats Wesley, with the earlier win over Wittenberg does too.  Best Case scenario; Wesley loses to Salisbury but beats Huntingdon.
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Ralph Turner

Quote from: ADL70 on October 24, 2011, 08:16:18 PM
Thnx for the analysis XTP

To me even if CWRU wins out (hardly a foregone conclusion); Wesley, if it beats Salisbury and Huntington, has a much superior resume,  And Huntingdon, if it beats Wesley, with the earlier win over Wittenberg does too.  Best Case scenario; Wesley loses to Salisbury but beats Huntingdon.
I agree!

smedindy

Then you wonder if a 9-1 Case has a chance at a "C".

ADL70

9-1 Case certainly has a chance at a C.  How great a chance depends on how many 9-1 teams don't win their conference
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HA-WOO, HA-WOO, HA-WOO
Think beyond the possible.
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jknezek

Quote from: smedindy on October 24, 2011, 08:57:03 PM
Then you wonder if a 9-1 Case has a chance at a "C".

Possibly. But you have to figure there will be enough 9-1 teams to fill out the North and South, making it tough to place Case. Especially with an SOS that places them 159th currently. It becomes a question of who has Case beaten to move them from a failed Pool B bid to a successful Pool C and where do you put them? You really are talking about a team that is claiming this year's John Carroll and upcoming Chicago as signature wins and carrying a loss to a fairly mediocre Rochester team. I think you will find 9-1 teams with better resumes when push comes to shove in the South, North and West.

However, for argument sake we can play with the South Region. If you put Thomas More at say 2 in the South, it could be a nice geographic matchup to Case in at 7. In that case you could see something like UMHB 1 paired with Trinity 8. Wesley at 3 pairs with the USAS at 6, leaving a host of 4-5 options including the ODAC winner, the Centennial winner, another ASC or another SCAC team. The problem is you would kick out either a 9-1 ASC 2 or a 9-1 SCAC 2 for your 9-1 Case team. It also doesn't work if Trinity doesn't win the SCAC, unless Trinity is the SCAC 2. In that case you definitely push Salisbury (assuming they win the E8) and either the ODAC winner or the CC winner to the East and possibly all 3 if you include an ASC 2. I think both the conference 2 teams have better resumes than Case, so I believe the more likely scenario would exclude Case.

If you exclude Case the South would read more along the lines of UMHB - Trinity, Thomas More - ODAC/SCAC (non-trinity), Wesley - ODAC/USAS, ASC (2) - ODAC/USAS/SCAC (non Trinity). That pushes CC winner and Salisbury to the East, pushing UMU back to the North. Alternatively you could keep either the CC or Salisbury in the South and push Wesley to the East and accomplish the same thing. The only long trip would be the ASC 2 game unless you get B-SC as the SCAC 2. You notice other than having a top half of the bracket (1-4) and a bottom have (4-8), I'm not really differentiating the seedings.

In either of these scenarios I'm pushing two teams to the east and also assuming Salisbury wins the E8. You'd have to get real creative and move Thomas More into the North if you want to get around the East problem, as I believe Centre is the only other team that could possibly move that way. Given that the North is usually strong enough to have 2 number 1 quality teams and pushes UMU east, I have a hard time believing you are going to push anyone from out of region into that bracket.

The east seems most likely to adopt a team or two to provide the South another slot or two. That would make sense as Salisbury plays in an "east" conference and Wesley and Johns Hopkins are geographically close to parts of the MAC and NJAC. I know the MAC champion has moved South in the past (2006 at least) to host the ODAC champion, and I know the NJAC has moved south as a Pool C (last year), so it's not a stretch to assume it goes the other way this year as it looks like the East will have a dearth of 9-1 Pool C options. With 6 AQ conferences (excluding the NESCAC), taking 2 South teams is reasonable, especially if one of them is Salisbury which would count as one of the 6 East AQs.

If Salisbury does not win the E8, or Trinity becomes the third team in the SCAC, the variables become... ridiculous. Basically it's very early to play with these permutations, but to answer the original question, even at 9-1 I think Case has too thin a resume and too many seeding problems to become a Pool C bid.

K-Mack

Quote from: jknezek on October 24, 2011, 10:15:03 PM
I know the MAC champion has moved South in the past (2006 at least) to host the ODAC champion

Sound analysis overall. I can't remember which year it was exactly, but the MAC was in the South Region back when it was 11 teams.

In any case, then and now, because playoff brackets don't "have" to be regionally-centered, only bus-trip based as much as possible, conferences like the CC, MAC and PAC will always have the flexibility to go with more than one region. Same with the Illinois, Wisc. and Minn. schools ... could be north or west.

I know you know this, but just saying ... there are lots of possibilities and one loss could turn a perfectly matched team (say, Thomas More vs. Centre in the South) to one on a geographic island.

Also the bunchup in the mid-Atlantic and Midwest means some teams literally could be placed at half of the available sites.
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