Pool B

Started by Ralph Turner, October 01, 2005, 02:12:36 PM

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Hawks88

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 06, 2008, 02:01:43 PM
Quote from: AO on October 06, 2008, 01:26:22 PM
Northwestern over Macalester 49-13

Is it safe to say Northwestern is now a contender for a bid?
Unfortunately, no.

IMHO, they are the new kids on the block!

Simpson is a bad loss.  Pool B just lost a bid.  They needed to run the table as Huntingdon needs to.

I will assume that an "ODAC-Champion" H-SC is regionally ranked when Huntingdon plays them.  If Huntingdon runs the table, and has a win over a regionally ranked team, then they are on the table somewhere when Pool B is being considered.  :)

It would also be a big boost to Huntingdon/LaGrange if Maryville could somehow run the table in the USAC.

Ralph Turner

Pool B update (IMHO):

1)  CWRU now 5-0 after a win over a good Wooster team. (Plays Carnegie Mellon on the Nov 8th and Wash U on the 15th.)

2a)  Salisbury -- 5-1/2-1 Good win over SJF in 4OT 58-52 (non-in-region game tho') Has in-region loss to Del Valley.
2b)   Wesley -- 3-1/2-1 Defeated I-FCS Iona 23-12.  Has in-region loss to Del Valley.  Plays Salisbury on Nov 1st.  For whom do Huntingdon & LaGrange root?

3a) Huntingdon -- 5-0/4-0. Defeated Eureka 62-0.  Plays at Westminster on Oct 25th, hosts H-SC on Nov 8th and at LaGrange on Nov 15th.  Great schedule remains to show the committee something.
3b) LaGrange -- 5-1/4-0.  Westminster on Oct 18th.  Hosts Huntingdon on Nov 15th

Radar screen --

Northwestern MN.  5-1/5-1 should probably considered #6 at this time.   Beat Martin Luther 45-10.  Hosts St Thomas on Nov 15th.


Hawks88

Quote from: Hawks88 on October 06, 2008, 02:50:41 PM

It would also be a big boost to Huntingdon/LaGrange if Maryville could somehow run the table in the USAC.

Well, so much for that.  :-\

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Hawks88 on October 11, 2008, 11:21:56 PM
Quote from: Hawks88 on October 06, 2008, 02:50:41 PM

It would also be a big boost to Huntingdon/LaGrange if Maryville could somehow run the table in the USAC.

Well, so much for that.  :-\
I wonder if the Regional Rankings will reserve a place around 9th or 10th for the best team (Pool A winner) in the USA South.  When Pool B is being discussed, beating a regional ranked team (more specifically the results versus regionally ranked teams) is one of the criteria.

K-Mack

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 11, 2008, 06:49:18 PM
Pool B update (IMHO):

1)  CWRU now 5-0 after a win over a good Wooster team. (Plays Carnegie Mellon on the Nov 8th and Wash U on the 15th.)

2a)  Salisbury -- 5-1/2-1 Good win over SJF in 4OT 58-52 (non-in-region game tho') Has in-region loss to Del Valley.
2b)   Wesley -- 3-1/2-1 Defeated I-FCS Iona 23-12.  Has in-region loss to Del Valley.  Plays Salisbury on Nov 1st.  For whom do Huntingdon & LaGrange root?

3a) Huntingdon -- 5-0/4-0. Defeated Eureka 62-0.  Plays at Westminster on Oct 25th, hosts H-SC on Nov 8th and at LaGrange on Nov 15th.  Great schedule remains to show the committee something.
3b) LaGrange -- 5-1/4-0.  Westminster on Oct 18th.  Hosts Huntingdon on Nov 15th

Ralph,
This breakdown works about perfectly, because as listeners to the podcast will find out, they are likely playing for bids as you have them slotted here.

CWRU despite the weak schedule is a lock if undefeated.

Wesley and Salisbury have big problems with the non-division and out-of-region games, coupled with the in-region losses to DV and the h2h game coming up. The loser could be sitting on something like a 4-2 regional record ... might be tough to compare with an 8-2 in Pool C.

The SLIAC looks like it's basically getting its automatic bid a year early, as the problems above, coupled with the probability of one of the two Deep South teams finishing with one loss (or possibly undefeated), makes them a pretty good shot at another spot.

I will write more about Pool B in ATN ... the observations at that time will be a lot more official. :)
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AO

come on K-Mack, if you're going to quote somebody, you can't leave out the most important part.  takes it completely out of context.

After Huntingdon loses to Hampen-Sydney and CWRU loses to Washington U., Northwestern is going to be looking pretty good at 9-1.


Ralph Turner

Quote from: AO on October 13, 2008, 11:58:01 AM
come on K-Mack, if you're going to quote somebody, you can't leave out the most important part.  takes it completely out of context.

After Huntingdon loses to Hampen-Sydney and CWRU loses to Washington U., Northwestern is going to be looking pretty good at 9-1.


Actually I think that they are no better than #4 by Strength of Schedule if they finish 9-1.  I believe that the Simpson game was/is make-or-break.

Ralph Turner

Thanks for the acknowledgement in the podcast, Pat and Keith.   :)

Which calculation worked to get to 3 Pool B bids?  The NESCAC schools counting in the Pool A numerator but no NESCAC in the Pool A conference denominator?

In fact, with Anna Marie and Castleton State scheduled to come on board next season, that probably means that there will be 3 Pool B teams next year as well.  (Did I forget any other new programs that will end up in Pool B?)

jam40jeff

Quote from: AO on October 13, 2008, 11:58:01 AM
After ... CWRU loses to Washington U., Northwestern is going to be looking pretty good at 9-1.

That's a pretty bold prediction the way Case has been playing.

AO

I'm full of bold predictions.  I'd say it's a pretty bold prediction to say Northwestern is out of it based upon a close lose to a solid Simpson team.  I'd put Simpson, St. Thomas or UW-River Falls up against any opponents of other Pool B contenders. 

hickory_cornhusker

Quote from: AO on October 13, 2008, 04:40:12 PM
I'm full of bold predictions.  I'd say it's a pretty bold prediction to say Northwestern is out of it based upon a close lose to a solid Simpson team.  I'd put Simpson, St. Thomas or UW-River Falls up against any opponents of other Pool B contenders. 

I don't think the non-conference is Northwestern's problem. I think the UMAC schedule is going to be. That is a solid non-conference slate but it's nothing spectacular. The UMAC though is quite a bit weaker than Wesley/Salisbury's schedule, the UAA. I also would rate the SLIAC schedule as tougher than the UMAC but not by as much as the others.

Pat Coleman

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 13, 2008, 02:05:59 PM
Thanks for the acknowledgement in the podcast, Pat and Keith.   :)

Which calculation worked to get to 3 Pool B bids?  The NESCAC schools counting in the Pool A numerator but no NESCAC in the Pool A conference denominator?

In fact, with Anna Marie and Castleton State scheduled to come on board next season, that probably means that there will be 3 Pool B teams next year as well.  (Did I forget any other new programs that will end up in Pool B?)

Neither. I think I hinted at it in the podcast but basically the football committee did not have proper paperwork on Northwestern and St. Scholastica being eligible in football this year.
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Mr. Ypsi

#507
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 04, 2008, 10:14:39 AM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 03, 2008, 11:22:58 PM
IF that is indeed the basis for their determination, they may want to reword the Handbook: "nearest whole number" for their example (5.61) is 6, not 5.  For the present case it would be 3, not 2.  Perhaps they should just drop "nearest" and say "truncated to the (last) whole number"?  Thus even 2.91 = 2! ;D

I wonder if we'll see an 8th week change in the pool B allotment? ;)
Well, we heard it here first!   :D

For the record, the change came in the 8th week! ;D

(Though getting into the 'mind' of the NCAA has me worried about my mental health. :o)

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 14, 2008, 12:11:05 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 13, 2008, 02:05:59 PM
Thanks for the acknowledgement in the podcast, Pat and Keith.   :)

Which calculation worked to get to 3 Pool B bids?  The NESCAC schools counting in the Pool A numerator but no NESCAC in the Pool A conference denominator?

In fact, with Anna Marie and Castleton State scheduled to come on board next season, that probably means that there will be 3 Pool B teams next year as well.  (Did I forget any other new programs that will end up in Pool B?)

Neither. I think I hinted at it in the podcast but basically the football committee did not have proper paperwork on Northwestern and St. Scholastica being eligible in football this year.
Thanks for the response.  (Now we know.  The NESCAC neither helps nor hurts.  That is good and fair.)

We can get back to the old rant that the NCAA doesn't support the members of the committee in the way that we fans want it supported!

The committee members take on that job to help the student-athletes.  Every person that I have met who has served on one of the varying NCAA committees is a loyal professional to the calling of supporting student-athletes.  The committee members deserve more respect and support from the administration at the NCAA offices!   :)

Thanks for the quality "journalism" Pat!  :)

Ralph Turner

#509
Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 03, 2008, 07:30:25 PM
Pool B contains 27 schools this year.

North Region -- 8 teams


The SLIAC-6  (Pool A in 2011)
UAA members: UChicago and CWRU

West Region -- 7 teams

The UMAC-5  (Crown, MN-Morris, Martin Luther, Northwestern MN, St Scholastica.  CSS is omitted in the Handbook.)
Chapman
Neb Wesleyan (Still in the 10Oct08 revision of the Handbook), but declared for the NAIA.
Macalester


South Region -- 8 teams

ACFC 3 (Frostburg St. Salisbury, Wesley)
SLIAC affiliates -- Huntingdon and LaGrange
UAA 2 -- Washington MO, Carnegie Mellon
Gallaudet -- (will affiliate with the non-Pool-eligible North Atlantic Conference in 2009.)

East Region -- 4 teams

Becker, Husson, Mount Ida and SUNY-Maritime  (These four teams will compete in the non-Pool-eligible North Atlantic Conference in 2009.)

Final edit for archive sake.

27 Pool B teams (as confirmed by Pat Coleman.)

Access ratio is 197 Pool A teams from 23 Pool A conferences = 8.56

28 divided by 8.56 = 3.27, which is truncated to 3 bids.



Early projections for 2009 --

Pool B schools increase with the addition of  Anna Marie and, Castleton State.

New programs in Pool A conferences include Hendrix in the SCAC.  The access ratio is 198 / 23 = 8.60.

30 Pool B schools divided by 8.56 = 3.48, which truncates to 3 bids.



Corrections are always appreciated.