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Messages - middhoops

#1
Region 1 men's basketball / Re: MBB: NESCAC
November 10, 2023, 08:08:22 PM
Just wow.
Anna Maria scores 20 consecutive points to close out the second half.  Seriously.
Amherst loses in OT. 
So many questions.  Too many.
#2
Region 1 men's basketball / Re: MBB: NESCAC
October 19, 2023, 06:09:25 PM
Yes, a Tufts poster! 
Welcome to the board. 
#3
Region 1 men's basketball / Re: MBB: NESCAC
June 10, 2023, 04:00:33 PM
Ouch.  Wrong, yet again, I was.
Guess DR had a bit more upside than Steidl, eh?
#4
Region 1 men's basketball / Re: MBB: NESCAC
March 03, 2023, 05:02:13 PM
Pomona-Pitzer in the first half looks not so very athletic by NESCAC standards.  The Ephs hit threes and played effective D to establish a big lead early and hold it right up to the half.(43-27)
If Williams can maintain their defensive intensity they should hold off any spurt by P-P in the 2nd half.  I like the Ephs chances against St Joe's should they both win.  Kevin App devised a winning strategy against Whitman 4 years ago (I think) when Whitman's full court press was too much for everyone they faced.  I'm betting on App.
#5
Region 1 men's basketball / Re: MBB: NESCAC
February 25, 2023, 02:41:26 PM
Strange half in Williamstown.  Colby (over) plays tight man to man against a bigger Eph squad and takes the ball to the paint repeatedly en route of a kinda huge halftime lead.
No doubt Williams makes a comeback in the 2nd half, but 21 points against a veteran, and patient, Colby is maybe too much to ask.
#6
Region 1 men's basketball / Re: MBB: NESCAC
February 08, 2023, 06:25:06 PM
Dunno, Mr. Jaismith.  Hamilton sure has some nice wins, but saying they're a better team than Tufts? The Jumbos have a statistical argument to be made.
Tufts' WP% is higher and their vRRO is better while Hamilton's SOS is higher.  And Tufts has the head to head win.
The tournament committee is likely to lean toward the Jumbos, no?
#7
Region 1 men's basketball / Re: MBB: NESCAC
February 07, 2023, 04:39:20 PM
First round of regional rankings are out.  These are alphabetically listed.

https://d3hoops.com/playoffs/men/2023/men-regional-rankings-alpha
#8
Region 1 men's basketball / Re: MBB: NESCAC
February 02, 2023, 08:04:37 PM

Getting near the end of the regular season and the bubble teams have quite a contrast of schedules.

Wes is 13-7/4-2, 2-4 vRRO.  Trinity is 15-5/3-3, 2-2 vRRO.

According to the Pasteur ratings, Wesleyan can possibly take one more loss before having no chance at a Pool C bid.  Sweeping Midd/Williams/Tufts and Bates, then winning the conference tournament would be a memorable accomplishment.
Trinity can lose one more game, possibly two and still have a chance at a Pool C bid.  They face the same murderers row as Wesleyan.  So they too have to win the rest of their games, but maybe lose the conference championship game to get in, I'm guessing.

Williams (17-3/4-3, 2-2 vRRO) can lose 2 or 3 more games and still get in.  Middlebury's statistical resume (90% WP, 6-1 in league and 6-2 vRRO) means they could lose probably four more games and still get in.

Hamilton is in a potentially bizarre situation.  They stand at 14-7/5-2, 3-5 vRRO.  Hamilton's remaining games are at Bowdoin and Colby, CC at home With a sweep, they're 17-7/8-2 and probably 4-5 vRRO.  If Midd stumbles, Hamilton could be regular season champs.  Even with that, Hamilton probably has to win out including the conference tourney.

Williams and Middlebury are going to Connecticut this weekend hoping to improve their chances of hosting tourney games, while Wesleyan and Trinity are playing for their season survival. 
Beating Midd, Williams and Tufts?  Those quality wins when it really matters would look very, very good for a team on the bubble.  That would a big haul of vRROs. 
And, while I think Massey's computer has a faulty bug*, it gives both teams decent chances of winning these home games.
Got to love NESCAC bball.


*Massey gave Midd a 30% chance of beating Williams and 40% chance against Keene St.  Then after those road wins plus Tufts it still picks Wesleyan and only today upgraded the Trinity game to a tie.  Also see what Massey's computer does in rating North Park from the CCIW.  Truly bizarre.  (stepping off soap box now...)

#9
Region 1 men's basketball / Re: MBB: NESCAC
January 29, 2023, 08:44:56 AM
No.  The conference tournament champion receives the automatic Pool A bid.
#10
Region 1 men's basketball / Re: MBB: NESCAC
January 27, 2023, 08:58:54 PM
Only halfway through the weekend but it sure was a good night to be a Middlebury fan.  Bates played great, leading at the half.  Midd came roaring back in the 2nd half to win comfortably.  All the while, Tufts beat the Ephs, Amherst beat Wesleyan and Hamilton took down Trinity.  Whew.
If tomorrow's games are anything like tonight's it could all even out.  That's late season conference play.

Williams fans have reason to be concerned, for certain.  The Ephs at present don't seem to be as intimidating as we thought they were.  Way too early to go all doom and gloom on them, but clearly it's time for the Ephs to catch fire.  I sure didn't see this coming.
#11
Region 1 men's basketball / Re: MBB: NESCAC
January 23, 2023, 11:05:56 PM
Wesleyan defeated Mass-Dartmouth at home tonight 80-75. 
Stat of the night:  Nicky Johnson had 11 assists to 1 turnover.  Not bad.
#12
Region 1 men's basketball / Re: MBB: NESCAC
January 23, 2023, 08:40:45 PM
OG, I'm camped out in the Arizona desert but I'll reimburse you for buying Ryan a beer on me at Two Brothers.
#13
Region 1 men's basketball / Re: MBB: NESCAC
January 23, 2023, 12:25:21 PM
Colby Hoops makes great points.
When I look at the Williams roster, it resembles a D3 coach's wish list of players.  Most of this season however, playing against lesser competition the Ephs played lackadaisically early in games and used their raw talent later to win them.
When they played against their arch rival Amherst it still appeared that they were not playing as hard as the Mammoths.  Twice, one might argue.
Then against a strong Middlebury team, in the first half the Ephs got out-hustled and badly outrebounded.  In the second half Williams was arguably the better team.  Alas, too much deficit to make up.
So my completely unqualified opinion is that Williams IS an elite team.  An elite team that in late January has a whole ton of upside as they probably haven't come close this season to playing the best game they're capable of.
Losing Roughley is huge.  With Roughley's big frame (and full complement of fouls) to lean on Alex Soble/David Brennan for 30 minutes, Midd's domination of Williams in the paint may have been significantly diminished.
As for lacking a true All American...other than Alex Sobel do we have others in the conference over Nicky Johnson's height?  Karren, Spivy, Prowitt-Smith, Porter, Glatzer and Roughley dwarfs what any other NESCAC team can hope for from a talent/size/shooting standpoint.  Lacking a Sobel really makes the difference? 

The Ephs will find their stride.  Their talent and coaching will take them to the Sweet 16 and probably beyond.  Most programs would consider that "elite".
#14
Region 1 men's basketball / Re: MBB: NESCAC
January 21, 2023, 05:00:18 PM
What a week for Middlebury!
Keene on Monday and a huge win at Chandler Gym today.  Can't possibly say enough good stuff about Jeff Brown.  Midd played awesome D against a legit top 10 team on their own court.  Sobel was Sobel, which is enough to get the Panthers over the top against most teams.
The game was, as NESCAC1 said, decided in the first half when Midd shut the Ephs down.
Massive kudos (yet again, and again) to Jeff Brown.  Don't even know where to start.  Just, wow.
This is SO not the Midd team that was so mediocre for most of the season up until last Monday.

Williams is a super talented team, but missing Brandon Roughley and the downstream effects of his loss is evident against a rebounding team like Sobel/Brennan.

Great game, as Toad predicted.  One we won't forget soon.
#15
Region 1 men's basketball / Re: MBB: NESCAC
January 21, 2023, 03:47:26 PM
Middlebury lays some STIFLING defense on the Ephs in the first half.  24-13.  Who holds Williams to 13 point?  Sheesh.
Jeff Brown has the game going in the direction he dreamed of.  Too bad we gotta play another 20 minutes.
Damn, sure wish Midd had played this level of D against Hamilton and Rochester.
Everyone knows the Ephs will come out in the 2nd half playing with increased intensity.  Gonna be a barn burner.
How can you not love D3 basketball after an effort like that?