MBB: Ohio Athletic Conference

Started by Scots Hoops Fan, March 14, 2005, 09:32:28 AM

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onefan

Looking at the remainder of the season I have to agree with kb regarding Cap's remaining games.
At this juncture, the regular season title is theirs to lose, but they are far from unbeatable as Wilmington found out. I am far from neutral on the subject of Ohio Northern,but they are the only OAC team that has not suffered a double digit loss in the OAC. In fact, their four conference losses have now been by  a total of eight points, with their only three point loss being to Mount Union. I know,I know, would have,could have,should have...but I am telling you the Bears are a team to be dealt with over this last month and but for a bucket here or there could easily be a one loss team.

ScotsFan

Quote from: onefan on February 01, 2008, 11:52:24 PM
I am far from neutral on the subject of Ohio Northern,but they are the only OAC team that has not suffered a double digit loss in the OAC. In fact, their four conference losses have now been by  a total of eight points, with their only three point loss being to Mount Union. I know,I know, would have,could have,should have...but I am telling you the Bears are a team to be dealt with over this last month and but for a bucket here or there could easily be a one loss team.
I am presuming that you didn't 'knock on wood' after you made this post? ;)  No sooner did you make this post than the Polar Bears went and lost their first OAC game by double digits today vs. B-W.  Not that you jinxed them or anything onefan... ;)  8)

onefan

Boy no kidding!!!! Just abot the time you think you know what you're talking about and wham!!! This ONU team is just hard to figure out. Wednesday night they could have whpped anybody in the league....great movement of the ball on offense...tenacious defense....teamwork out the wazoo and then this....I love this conference despite the frustration of seeing the ones ya' love take it on the chin sometimes.....ahhh well there's always another game in three or four days to get excited about again....From now on...the mouth stays shut and the eyes will continue to watch and learn....

Dynex

I caught the Capital JCU game yesterday and I can tell you that it was a track meet for the first 20 mins. I think there may have been 10 missed shots then entire half with the score being about 63-51 at half. Capital played good D in the second to push the margin out to 113-78 I believe, it was an incredible game to watch. Hard to believe that was the same Cap team that caught caught sleeping at Wilmington on wednesday. Talking to some of the capital fans that went to the WILM game it sounded like a few guys were sick or just out of it on wednesday but whatever it was they figured it out yesterday. WILM is a good athletic team though. It looks like OTT might finally be putting something together with a solid win at Muskie.

Its now a two team race for the regular season title with CAP at 11-1 and HEID at 9-3. I really doubt that CAP drops 4 of the last 6 to give ONU JCU or WILM a shot at it but look out come tourny time. HEID goes on the road down the stretch but they can definitly make this interesting if they take care of business.

One more quick note- Capital Junior Nate Stahl broke 1,000 point mark yesterday with a breakaway and one. What a great career and achievement for a kid who still has 35+ games left to play.

Whats the thoughts on player of the year in the league? Stahl, Lemmon, Walsh, Kyle Brown, or Gehle.... anyone want to throw another name in there? At this point with Cap being the most dominant I would have to give it to stahl. He gets 13 and 5 while being double teamed and trapped allowing others to make big plays. Walsh had 20 in the first half yesterday but seemed to get tired with Capital playing 12 guys and rotating, but he should be thrown in the mix as well. Lemmon is another solid player who leads his team but Im not sure if the consistency has been there to get a POY nod. great player none the less. Kyle Brown is a great player but the team isnt that good and Gehle is having an up and down year as well.

kiltedbryan

Dynex- any explanation for why Otterbein and Capital were both able to better than 60% for the game both overall and from 3 point land?  Are there defensive problems with JCU?  I haven't seen them this year, but from when I've seen them in the past, it always seemed like they were physical enough and intense enough on the defensive end that the idea of an opponent hitting such a high percentage seemed unlikely.  I could understand the lack of a Brandon Mimes inside hurting the interior defense...but it's perimeter defense that has been missing against Ott and Cap.  Any thoughts?

kiltedbryan

Thought I would return to my duties as unofficial/occasional poster about all things Ohio Athletic Conference:

Looking at teams and races from here on in:

The Top 2:

Capital.  At 11-1, Capital has 3 "easy" wins and 3 "challenging" games left.  Win the three they should win, plus a season sweep of Heidelberg, Cap would finish at least 15-3 and alone in first place. My guess is the Crusaders finish 5-1 or 6-0 and mop up the league. Worst case scenario seems to be a 3-3 finish, 14-4 OAC, which probably still wins the league.  To go worse than that would be a titanic failure.

Heidelberg.  If Cap goes .500 or better (14 wins or more), then no one save Heidelberg, at 9-3, even has a chance to catch up. The 'Berg has three tough road assignments (Cap, JCU and Musky) left, and four road games.  To catch up to Cap, the Berg needs to be perfect or at least 3-1 on the road (with the loss somewhere other than Bexley) and to win what should be two "easy" games at home.  Catching Cap is probably unlikely. On the plus side, a 5-1 or 4-2 finish (14-4 or 13-5) virtually insures no worse than second place; any of the three 7-5 teams would have to finish a perfect 6-0 to match that record.

kiltedbryan

The 7-5/6-6 Logjam:

Wilmington. The Quakers own the best win tiebreakers, and have proven that they can take on the top two teams, earning splits with 'Berg and Cap.  As an added bonus, it is the only 7-5 team that is done playing both 'Berg and Cap. Wilmington also has only 2 road games left, both against fellow "log jammers." (@ ONU, @ Musky) Quakers are 4-1 at home in OAC play, with 3 winnable games left on home court. It shouldn't be a stretch to go at least 4-2 (3-1 at home, 1-1 on the road) and end at 11-7.

Ohio Northern.  Only two road games, but one is Capital. Like Wilmington, the key for ONU will be holding serve at home as much as possible. 3-1 or 4-0 at home and 1-1 on the road would put ONU in basically the same situation as Wilmington. Wilmington won the first head-to-head; ONU needs to win the rematch on its home floor to have a shot at 3rd.

John Carroll has managed to sandwich a season sweep of Musky around blow-out losses to the best team in the league and one of the worst.  Weird.  JCU has two home losses in league play and could easily get a third courtesy of 'Berg in a few weeks.  To go better than .500 in the last six, JCU will have to earn a win against 'Berg at home, or ONU and Wilmington on the road and avoid any other pitfall.

Muskingum. Of the teams in the "log jam," Musky is the one that seems most likely to stay at the bottom edge of it.  Already a game back at 6-6 and beaten twice by JCU, Musky still has to go to Capital and host Heidelberg, plus go on the road to ONU and host Wilmington. 4-0 in those games would be stunning, and thus unlikely. I see them probably going at best 2-2 there, 4-2 in the last 6, for a record of 10-8 at best.  Musky only holds a favorable head-to-head against ONU currently, of the teams ahead of them.

Dynex

KB - Ive seen Cap and Ott play multiple times this year and its obviously a tale of two teams here in columbus. However, with Cap and Ott both putting up huge numbers against JCU stems from a lack of team defense. Both teams obviously made more 3's than they missed against JCU and some were tough shots but JCU has trouble rotating and sometimes leaves shooters open. They have the athletes to play with the big boys but in bexley they just ran out of gas after a 63-51 first half. I think JCU is still a team that they could make things interesting in the tournament.
My predictions is that Cap will drop another one they shouldnt but still win the league. The tournament will be at Capital but Look for HIED, WILM, ONU, and JCU to put a run together.

kiltedbryan

Another Wednesday, another night of puzzling finals in the OAC:

Heidelberg 84, Baldwin-Wallace 87   ???
Capital 82, Marietta 48
Ohio Northern 103, Otterbein 74
Mount Union 70, John Carroll 65  ???
Wilmington 49, Muskingum 72   :o :o

So, it's:

Capital 11-1
Heidelberg 9-4
Ohio Northern 8-5
Wilmington 7-6
John Carroll 7-6
Muskingum 7-6

Capital now has a 3 game lead with 5 to play.  I think I know where the OAC Men's Tournament will be...
How does Wilmington control a game to win against Capital, then lose to Muskingum by 23?


Dynex

KB - (WILM comment) Anyone can get up to play a top team esp at home such as WILM vs Cap last week, however those wednesday games can catch you sleeping, litterally. After a day of classes and the WILM to muskie trip isnt the shortest. you have to bring it every night.

Cap's website said Capital was up 40 with 6 minutes to play..... On the road on a wednesday thats not too bad after it being a 3 point game close to half. 

ONU Ott doesnt surprise me, and really BW uypsetting HIED doesnt either. However, JCU was beat at home by MUC and that would be JCU 's 3rd home loss this seaon. Thats really the only shocker here in my opinion. Dont get me wrong MUC is a good team at times but i would expect JCU to defend their home court.  BW is playing decent basketball esp at home right now. Cap up three games with 5 to play, it will be interesting to see if Coach Goodwin can keep his guys focused over the next couple weeks. No doubt in my mind they are a shoe in to win it, but if they let their guard down they might get clipped in the OAC tourny. 


ScotsFan

Quote from: Dynex on February 07, 2008, 07:27:10 AM
No doubt in my mind they are a shoe in to win it, but if they let their guard down they might get clipped in the OAC tourny. 

I don't see how Cap can be caught now with Heide losing last night.  But, the Crusaders still have to stay sharp to avoid falling prey to the upset in the OAC.

onefan

KB


Thanks for your continued good work on the OAC postings....However, I must point out that on Feb. 5th you stated Wilmington won the first head to head with ONU at Wilmington...ONU actually won that game 66-62. Looks like there is still a contest for second place, I don't see Cap falling apart, but I wouldn't put money on anybody for second at this point.

kiltedbryan

Quote from: onefan on February 08, 2008, 05:03:45 PM
KB


Thanks for your continued good work on the OAC postings....However, I must point out that on Feb. 5th you stated Wilmington won the first head to head with ONU at Wilmington...ONU actually won that game 66-62. Looks like there is still a contest for second place, I don't see Cap falling apart, but I wouldn't put money on anybody for second at this point.

Indeed they did.  Oops.   :-[

Yeah, 'Berg's loss to B-W really opens up the race for second/third/fourth.  (ie. first round hosts in the tournament.)  As usual, it should be fun from here on in.

onefan

Took a few moments and looked over the schedules for ONU,Wilmington,John Carroll, Muskingham, and Heidelaberg....ONU's final five are a combined 37-28, Muskingam's last five are combined 36-29, Heidelberg's are 32-33,John carroll's 31-34 and Wilmington's are 28-37....BUT...Heidelberg has four of their last five on the road...tough finish...they've got JC,Muskingam, and Cap on the road...I see them losing a minimum of two of their last five leaving them at

















onefan

Sorry about that....I lost power and posted a half-post....Anyway that leaves the Berg at 12-6...good for second place... John Carroll also plays four of their last five on the road....they just aren't stong enough to win more than three of those and probably will lose to ONU ,Heidelberg and Wilmington, which leaves them at 9-9....The Muskies play three of five at home, but one of their home games is Heidelberg and I don't think the Berg is going down easy , I see them losing to Cap at Cap, to ONU at ONU, and losing to The Student Princes at home to finish at 9-9....ONU has four of their last five at home, but their one away game is Capital...I see them winning three of their last five losing to Cap and losing one of the three between JC, the Muskies and Wilmington and finishing at 11-7...That leaves Wilmington with their last four of five at home against teams with a combine 43% winning percentage....I think they'll take four of five and finish 11-7 tied with ONU for second....There, now that I have that all figured out we can save ourselves a lot of time and just get to the tournament..