BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference

Started by Pat Coleman, December 29, 2005, 12:08:01 AM

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Ralph Turner

UOz 14, UMHB 12 in the final game.

UOz to the tourney and probably play TLU.

Ralph Turner

Final score from Seguin, TLU 17-6.  TLU wins the series, 2-1.

Just_Some_Guy

So we have:

UT Dallas vs. McMurry (McMurry won the season series 2-1)
Texas Lutheran vs. Ozarks (TLU won the season series 3-0)




dsc

Well, HSU is out for baseball, but they've had a good week (and year) overall...winning ASC Championships in softball, men's/women's tennis and in the running for baseball, men's/women's golf.  (HSU was the only ASC school in all six events!)  Add championships in volleyball and men's/women's soccer...very decent football/basketball teams...and it is difficult to complain...for the year in college sports at HSU!

Come on 2007 football...go Cowboys!  Thanks to all the seniors in all the sports...and good luck in life!

Proud to be a COWBOY!

HARDIN-SIMMONS UNIVERSITY: AN EDUCATION ENLIGHTENED BY FAITH.

Ralph Turner

Okay, McMurry won women's cross country, finished second to 4th year Provisional UT-Tyler in Men's Cross Country, tied for first in the ASC West in Men's Hoops, earned a Pool C bid in women's hoops, won Men's and Women's Track.

They are still in the running for baseball.

The Swimming teams finished 4th of 10 for the men and 6th of 13 for the women in their conference.  (Oh yeah, you Baptists don't do that "mixed bathing" thing.  ;)  :D )

The Men's Cross Country team was named Academic All-American.

We finished second in Men's golf and third in women's Golf to Texas Lutheran.

The men send an especially strong contingent to the Nationals in Track.
I am hoping for a Top 10 finish.

Just a little competition in Abilene, isn't there.

dsc

RT...Ha!  Five (5) sports in which McM excelled, HSU does NOT even participate! ;D  So, those were "gimmees." ;)

Wait until 2007-2008 when HSU starts track/field/cross country! :)  (Get ready!)

And swimming?  :'(   We'll give you swimming as long as you keep letting us win in football...what is it now...14 years in a row?  ;D  (Don't forget we Baptists invented the immersion technique...  :-\  ...so, we may enter the swimming thingie, if the urge is ever strong enough!  :D  ) ...and we can find that much water!

Yes,  ASC competition is alive in Abilene!  BTW, our Band marches faster and we have horses!   8)

Still "purple and gold" proud!  8)

Ralph, have a great summer and thanks for all you do (for the ASC and D III in general)...great to have you aboard!
HARDIN-SIMMONS UNIVERSITY: AN EDUCATION ENLIGHTENED BY FAITH.

CUAfan

Quote from: Just_Some_Guy on April 27, 2007, 06:26:53 PM
Miller - YR: 3.89, 5-2, 81.0 IP, 86 H, 16 BB, 102 Ks, .270 avg against
Enloe - YR: 2.77, 6-1, 61.2 IP, 52 H, 21 BB, 41 Ks, .228 avg against

In conference play Enloe is 5-0 w/ a 1.62 ERA and .191 avg against (both 1st in conference). He never gave up more than 3 ER in a conference start.

In conference play Miller is 3-1 w/ pretty lack luster starts against McMurry and Schreiner. He's not in the top 10 in opponents average or in ERA. I couldn't find stats for Miller so I tried to calculate them myself and I believe his conference ERA was 4.29 and avg against was .286

A) ERA, hits, and average against are both defense-dependent. Even Johan Santana would give up a lot of hits and runs if he had a Jason Giambi at every position. Besides, the earned/unearned thing is meaningless really, since they count the same on the scoreboard.

B) W/L record is a TERRIBLE way to evaluate pitchers. You can give up 10 in five innings, but if your offense gets 11 you still get the win (assuming no other scoring). Frankly, you can stink to high heaven and still have a good W/L record. Not that Enloe stinks, just an example.

A proper evaluation takes into account only those things which a pitcher directly controls, namely strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed. The DICE (Defense-Independent Component ERA) rankings above take only those factors into account, and they say that Miller's better. I bet if you could stick Miller in front of the TLU defense that he'd have an ERA under 2.77. He strikes out more batters, walks fewer (as I recall), and is about the same in HR/9.
Let's go 'Nados!

Just_Some_Guy

Texas Lutheran F% = .953
Concordia F% = .957

Is Texas Lutheran really that much better defensively? So much so that Miller's conference ER average would be 2.5 pts lower and opponents would be hitting 0.090 pts less off of him.  I just don't think so.

I agree with your point about W/L, but definitely disagree that ER/Unearned runs are essentially one in the same.

Also, perhaps Miller's desire to strike so many batters out has him working deeper into counts, and working from behind in the count in order to induce a strike out.  That scenario would lead to him giving up more hits and having a significantly higher avg against which is a pretty pertinent category in the argument in my opinion.

If another pitcher is working ahead in the count and getting ground ball outs when they could be getting strikeouts then they have less strike outs, but their defense doesn't get lulled to sleep and maybe they make more plays behind. I'm not saying I'm 100% RIGHT here by any means, just tossing out things to think about.

I mean Greg Maddux was never a power pitcher with ridiculous amounts of K's like Johnson/Schilling type pitcher, but he won some CY-Youngs. UMHB's Bill Pearce strikes out a ton per 9, but that doesn't make him the pitcher of the year.

And the HR given up is a tough one as well.  Enloe has given up quite a few less homeruns than Miller, but Miller also plays in a crackerbox home park where as TLU's field is quite a bit bigger.

The fact that Enloe had 0 ER in 8 IP, with 9 Ks against Mississippi this past weekend won't hurt him either.

Some_Guy

TexasBB

The East did much better than forcasted. According to Ralph Turner Texas Lutheran, McMurry and Mary Hardin Baylor would make short work of the East and TX Dallas would struggle against Hardin Simmons.  Turns our the that TX Dallas made short work of Hardin Simmons, Ozarks beat Mary Hardin Baylor and TX Lutheran needed 3 games to put away a supposed weak Mississippi College.  Maybee the West isn't that good after all. ::)

Ralph Turner

Quote from: TexasBB on April 30, 2007, 02:40:48 PM
The East did much better than forecasted. According to Ralph Turner Texas Lutheran, McMurry and Mary Hardin Baylor would make short work of the East and TX Dallas would struggle against Hardin Simmons.  Turns our the that TX Dallas made short work of Hardin Simmons, Ozarks beat Mary Hardin Baylor and TX Lutheran needed 3 games to put away a supposed weak Mississippi College.  Maybe the West isn't that good after all. ::)
Yeah, I know.   :-\  Sometimes the lack of active posters from the East impacts the assessment of quality when it should not.

I will go thru the conference schedule to check the inter-divisional records tonight.

Just_Some_Guy

Quote from: TexasBB on April 30, 2007, 02:40:48 PM
The East did much better than forcasted. According to Ralph Turner Texas Lutheran, McMurry and Mary Hardin Baylor would make short work of the East and TX Dallas would struggle against Hardin Simmons.  Turns our the that TX Dallas made short work of Hardin Simmons, Ozarks beat Mary Hardin Baylor and TX Lutheran needed 3 games to put away a supposed weak Mississippi College.  Maybee the West isn't that good after all. ::)

Had I predicted I probably would've said Texas Lutheran in 2, McMurry in 2, Ozarks and UMHB a 3 game toss up, and UTD over Hardin Simmons in 3.

I don't think Texas Lutheran dropping the game against Shawn Ashley was that big of a deal. It's no secret that Mississippi turns from a pretty average team to a really solid team with Ashley on the bump. Ashley lost 1-0 to McMurry early in the year without giving up an earned run, UT Tyler beat him, and UT Dallas' potent offensive got to him for 5 ER, but other than that he was pretty stellar.

I suspected McMurry would have a tough game against Grant Wilson and then be in the drivers seat and that's more or less what happened with that series.

Ozarks had played really good baseball down the stretch taking 5 of 6 from La College and Mississippi (losing to Ashley). They're a very scrappy team and they're solid offensively, but I wasn't sure how they'd be on the bump other than Finnell.  Well Finnell only gave up 1 ER, but they lost that game and just out hit UMHB in the other two. Dixon ended up throwing pretty well the first game and had to come back for 3.1 more to beat UMHB.

UMHB shot themselves in the foot when they got themselves in a big hole when Bill Pearce who has struck out 73 and only given up 35 hits in 50 IP, could'nt get out of the first in the final game. I wouldn't have been surprised with either team winning that one. You have to remember that UMHB lost 2 of 3 to TLU, McMurry and Concordia (but swept HSU early when they were looking for pitching). If I was an East team, I would've much rather played them than Hardin Simmons at this point in the season.

As for UTD/Hardin Simmons.  I figured Cox would win game one, but Rucker had seemed to be regaining his old form and it's no secret that the games were probably going to be slug fests after Friday. Maybe he did, maybe UT Dallas' offense is just ridiculously good, but UT Dallas prevailed.  Something in me just thought Simpson/Coleman could carry them to at least 3 games.

I have no idea what to expect from the conference tournament, but I hope the ASC can sneak two teams into the West Regional because it has to be one of the most competitive conferences nation-wide.

Some_Guy

Just_Some_Guy

#401
Texas Lutheran:
0-3 UT Tyler
3-0 Ozarks

McMurry:
2-1 UT Dallas
2-1 Mississippi College
0-1 UT-Tyler
1-0 LeTU

UMHB:
1-2 ETBU
0-3 Mississippi College

Hardin Simmons:
2-1 Louisiana College
0-3 UT Dallas

Concordia:
3-0 ETBU
2-1 Ozarks

UT Dallas:
1-2 McMurry
3-0 Hardin Simmons
1-0 Howard Payne

Ozarks:
0-3 Texas Lutheran
1-2 Concordia

Louisiana College:
1-2 Hardin Simmons
3-0 Sul Ross State

Mississippi College:
3-0 UMHB
1-2 McMurry

Moderator's note:  I am modifying Guy's post for other inter-divisional games.  For post-season tourney sake, let's not consider UT-Tyler games.

+1 Guy!

Just_Some_Guy

Dare to take a stab at this weekend Ralph ?

I think McMurry has a good balance and COULD be the team to beat. Yurchick starting has made them a totally different team, and Martin developing as the top bullpen guy has given them an extra arm besides Lee/Casey.

I know that the Ozarks are really scrappy and have swung it really well this year. Dixon and Finnell should be able to keep them close, but are they in the same league as the other three teams?

Some_Guy

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Just_Some_Guy on April 30, 2007, 10:57:58 PM
Dare to take a stab at this weekend Ralph ?

I think McMurry has a good balance and COULD be the team to beat. Yurchick starting has made them a totally different team, and Martin developing as the top bullpen guy has given them an extra arm besides Lee/Casey.

I know that the Ozarks are really scrappy and have swung it really well this year. Dixon and Finnell should be able to keep them close, but are they in the same league as the other three teams?

Some_Guy
Guy, I think that you are right about McM.  Martin may be the key to the bullpen.  It is nice to bring in a lefty in the late innings, especially a lefty that can throw strikes.  Martin's stats are 3-0 with 2 saves in 13 appearances  and 23 innings.  He did not see action against TLU in late March.  I reviewed the season stats and found 5 games where using Martin as the closer might have won the game.  Martin appeared in middle relief in a 12-10 extra-inning loss vs. Southwestern and 1 inning in middle relief in a 13-12 10-inning loss versus UT-D.  He did not appear in a 4-3 loss versus Schreiner, a 7-5 loss to Marietta (non-in-region),  the 8-5 extra inning loss versus TLU and the 12-10 extra inning loss to TLU.  If we reverse those 5 losses, McMurry's West Region record goes from 25-14 to 30-9.

Yurchick has been another good find.  In March he played one game vs. TLU and went 1-4.  In that series, TLU won 12-10 in 10 innings, won 8-5 in 10 innings and Enloe beat Shaffer 3-1 in (7-inning) complete game efforts.

That series was too close not to be affected by one clutch player coming thru.

McMurry should be confident, especially if they can get to UT-D in the first game.

CUAfan

Quote
Texas Lutheran F% = .953
Concordia F% = .957

Is Texas Lutheran really that much better defensively? So much so that Miller's conference ER average would be 2.5 pts lower and opponents would be hitting 0.090 pts less off of him.  I just don't think so.

Okay, so maybe I overstated the case a bit. :P Point is, I bet you put Miller on TLU and his defense-dependent stats look better since he'd be playing in more of a pitcher's park. Oh, and defensive efficiency is a better defensive stat that F%.

QuoteI agree with your point about W/L, but definitely disagree that ER/Unearned runs are essentially one in the same.

Not one in the same, no. But when it comes down to determining who wins and loses, it doesn't really matter if a run is earned or unearned. Besides, the hit/error decision is far too subjective for my taste. (side note: anyone else notice that MC apparently never grounded into a double play this year? odd...)

QuoteAlso, perhaps Miller's desire to strike so many batters out has him working deeper into counts, and working from behind in the count in order to induce a strike out.  That scenario would lead to him giving up more hits and having a significantly higher avg against which is a pretty pertinent category in the argument in my opinion.

I can't speak to that, really. I know he had quite a few full counts, but he had a lot of three-pitch strikeouts too. Regarding average against, studies have shown that a pitcher's impact on whether or not a batted ball results in an out is negligible at best. Therefore, average against is more of a team defense stat than a pitcher stat. It is somewhat dependent on whether the pitcher in question is a groundball or flyball pitcher, though.

QuoteIf another pitcher is working ahead in the count and getting ground ball outs when they could be getting strikeouts then they have less strike outs, but their defense doesn't get lulled to sleep and maybe they make more plays behind. I'm not saying I'm 100% RIGHT here by any means, just tossing out things to think about.

I mean Greg Maddux was never a power pitcher with ridiculous amounts of K's like Johnson/Schilling type pitcher, but he won some CY-Youngs. UMHB's Bill Pearce strikes out a ton per 9, but that doesn't make him the pitcher of the year.

And Johan Santana has, what, one Cy Young? It seems to me that the Cy Young is based as much on perception as anything else. Not to say that Maddux isn't one of the great ones, especially of his generation, but just that Cy Youngs aren't necessarily the best factor to go off of in determining the best pitcher in a given year. Oh, and Pearce isn't pitcher of the year since he walks almost as many as he strikes out (Three True Outcomes, people :P)

QuoteAnd the HR given up is a tough one as well.  Enloe has given up quite a few less homeruns than Miller, but Miller also plays in a crackerbox home park where as TLU's field is quite a bit bigger.

Yeah, I wish I had the numbers available to do park effect factors to fix that problem, but in the absence of that, straight HR/9 isn't too bad.

QuoteThe fact that Enloe had 0 ER in 8 IP, with 9 Ks against Mississippi this past weekend won't hurt him either.

And it ought to be a whole-body-of-work award. And watch, someone else entirely will win it. :P
Let's go 'Nados!