BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference

Started by Pat Coleman, December 29, 2005, 12:08:01 AM

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Spence

You may think this, but this isn't how things have trended. Ferrum is hosting the South regional and will probably be no higher than a 4 seed. That said, McMurry is not likely to be in a regional, and so that wouldn't be a problem if the tournament was at Walt Driggers Field.

indian4life

im new to this whole msg boards and to D3 baseball in general... and i was just wondering what are the qualifications for an at large bid?  and i ask this not to discreadit UTD (because they are a very talented ball club) but how is it that a team get in when mcm has beat them 3 of 5 including a run rule in tournament play? 

And i want to say again i am just ignorant in this issue i dont want to take anything away from UTD they have had a great season and i hope them the best i am just wondering.

thanks for any input.

Just_Some_Guy

I don't feel like getting into the logistics of it in terms of in region records (UTD's is better).  I mean UTD has a win % over 100 pts higher than McMurry's.  IF McMurry doesn't drop TWO to Schreiner, wins the Southwestern game, and doesn't get swept by TLU (4 games), I think they have a decent chance at it.  They played a tough schedule and they were certainlly the second best team in the ASC West.

Do I think they're a better team than UTD? I don't know.  In tournament play, I'd say yes.  I think both teams have the ability to put up HUGE offensive numbers that rival any team in the nation, but at the end of the day I think McMurry has more depth on the mound than UTD does.  I think that Cox is going to give UTD a chance to win ANY game he pitches, and Waggoner threw very well against TLU in the ASC Tourney, but after that I feel like McMurry can run some more guys out there.

Probably didn't answer your question, but essentially it boils down to McMurry having a worse in-region record.

Some_Guy

indian4life

Quote from: Just_Some_Guy on May 13, 2007, 11:46:42 PM
I don't feel like getting into the logistics of it in terms of in region records (UTD's is better).  I mean UTD has a win % over 100 pts higher than McMurry's.  IF McMurry doesn't drop TWO to Schreiner, wins the Southwestern game, and doesn't get swept by TLU (4 games), I think they have a decent chance at it.  They played a tough schedule and they were certainlly the second best team in the ASC West.

Do I think they're a better team than UTD? I don't know.  In tournament play, I'd say yes.  I think both teams have the ability to put up HUGE offensive numbers that rival any team in the nation, but at the end of the day I think McMurry has more depth on the mound than UTD does.  I think that Cox is going to give UTD a chance to win ANY game he pitches, and Waggoner threw very well against TLU in the ASC Tourney, but after that I feel like McMurry can run some more guys out there.

Probably didn't answer your question, but essentially it boils down to McMurry having a worse in-region record.

Some_Guy

ill agree with that and i know that MCM didnt have the year they had planed on.  i just was also wondering if strength of schedule has anything to do with it ( for future refernce) it looks like UTD played about the same teams as mcm. again just wondering dont want to take anything away from the comets they have had a fantastic year and deserve to be there. thanks again!

Ralph Turner

Guy covered it very well.

I think that we McM get in with the win over Southwestern, sweeping series that we must (Schreiner) and beating TLU one game out of four.

CUAfan

Here's my set of day 1 predictions based on Bill James' log5 method and the seven teams' pythagorean winning percentages. There are no corrections for home-field advantage, travel, or anything else. The percentage chance of the listed outcome follows in parentheses.

Pomona-Pitzer def. Texas Lutheran (54.3%)
George Fox def. Texas-Dallas (61.2%)
Pacific Lutheran def. Austin College (82.7%)
Chapman def. Texas-Dallas (65.7%), UTD eliminated

Let's go 'Nados!

BigPoppa

Quote from: CUAfan on May 15, 2007, 12:20:16 PM
Here's my set of day 1 predictions based on Bill James' log5 method and the seven teams' pythagorean winning percentages. There are no corrections for home-field advantage, travel, or anything else. The percentage chance of the listed outcome follows in parentheses.

Pomona-Pitzer def. Texas Lutheran (54.3%)
George Fox def. Texas-Dallas (61.2%)
Pacific Lutheran def. Austin College (82.7%)
Chapman def. Texas-Dallas (65.7%), UTD eliminated



I have no idea what you are saying, but I like the idea. I am not much of a math/logarithm-type guy.
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

utilitycat17

Wow, no love for your fellow Texans.

Pat Coleman

Math has no capacity for love or hate. :)
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utilitycat17

Just for fun, I'll take a stab at guessing the first few games of the west regional.
Game 1
Texas-Dallas over George Fox
Game 2
Texas Lutheran over Pomona Pitzer
Game 3
Pacific Lutheran over Austin
Game 4
Chapman over George Fox
Game 5
Pomona Pitzer over Austin
Game 6
Pacific Lutheran over Texas Lutheran
Game 7
Chapman over Texas-Dallas

I don't see any early upsets.  Maybe game 6 is a toss up.  Of course, the later you get into the tournament the more likely it is to see an offensive show and possibly an upset.  I think Chapman will win it with Texas Lutheran and Pacific Lutheran fighting for second.  Texas Lutheran is probably the better choice here because of experience.  However, if it comes down to pitching and defense, as is usually the case in the post-season, look out for PLU.

Jim Dixon

Quote from: CUAfan on May 15, 2007, 12:20:16 PM
Here's my set of day 1 predictions based on Bill James' log5 method and the seven teams' pythagorean winning percentages. There are no corrections for home-field advantage, travel, or anything else. The percentage chance of the listed outcome follows in parentheses.

Pomona-Pitzer def. Texas Lutheran (54.3%)
George Fox def. Texas-Dallas (61.2%)
Pacific Lutheran def. Austin College (82.7%)
Chapman def. Texas-Dallas (65.7%), UTD eliminated



I am not a statictian but can you take this further?   Would the probability for Texas-Dallas being eliminated be (.612) x (.657) or 0.402 -> 40.2% chance of being eliminated on the first day?

CUAfan

Dixon: Yeah, that's how it works. So we're looking at a 40.2% chance that UTD will be eliminated on the first day.

And no, I'm not going to try and do every possible outcome. :P I'm not *that* weird. :P
Let's go 'Nados!

Spence

I've got much the same only TLU getting to the finals, winning one game and then losing to Chapman.

thefalcdeuces

im going w spence on this one. i think tlu will role until they face chapman at the end. dont get me wrong, i think tlu is legit but it seems to me that they will falter come championship time and chapman will shine......AGAIN. it really is ashame that the west region is so stacked because there really should be two teams from this region packing their bags appleton and getting ready for some wild nights at the wooden nickel

thefalcdeuces