Author Topic: South Region playoffs  (Read 278920 times)

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: South Region Playoff Watch
« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2005, 02:30:35 pm »
RE: South region teams getting shipped to the North Region...

The North region is already loaded with plenty of playoff caliber teams.  OAC champ, CCIW champ, NCAC champ, HCAC champ,  MIAA champ.  and IBC champ.  That's already six.  Further, the OAC and CCIW are typically strong candidates for multiple bids (especially with the expanded playoffs this year) and you get an overcrowded North Region.  Twice in the last three years the North region has shipped a team east (Allegheny in '03, John Carroll in '02).  I would guess that the only South region team with a real shot to end up in the North bracket would be Depauw, but Depauw will have to win out to make that happen.  Thiel, if they got shipped out of the region, would almost certainly go to the east.    
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

“The O line has proven they can block some of the best in the conference and I can't wait to see what they do on Saturday." Matt Hunt, DePauw Quarterback, Sacked 5 times in the 121st Monon Bell Classic

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: South Region Playoff Watch
« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2005, 02:36:25 pm »
I agree with Wally!  Thiel or Wesley might be shipped East.

In 2001, Hardin-Simmons was "sent north" and hosted Wittenburg in the first round, as UMHB went to Trinity.

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: South Region Playoff Watch
« Reply #17 on: October 11, 2005, 02:53:21 pm »
Additionally, the way things are shaping up, Thiel might not be a good North region fit anyway.  The OAC looks like it might beat itself up out of a pool C bid again this year and Wabash could keep any Ohio-based NCAC schools out of the playoffs.  Mount Union very well could be the only Ohio school in the tournament this year.  Any other trip Thiel might have to make gets to be pretty long...without mapquesting things my guess is that Thiel's trips to Indiana or Illinois (or trips from schools in those states to Pennsylvania) are going to be about as long as Thiel's trips to other East region teams.  The brackets probably fall out a whole lot easier by moving Thiel east than trying to cram them into an already crowded North region, especially if there aren't many/any Ohio teams for Thiel to get paired up with. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

“The O line has proven they can block some of the best in the conference and I can't wait to see what they do on Saturday." Matt Hunt, DePauw Quarterback, Sacked 5 times in the 121st Monon Bell Classic

Offline pakownr97

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Re: South Region Playoff Watch
« Reply #18 on: October 11, 2005, 02:56:29 pm »
I have a question for my fellow experts on this board.  Why does the President's conference winner not get an automatic A bid since their conference now has seven members.  Did the NCAA change that criteria, or am I mistaken?  I thought that conferences with seven or more football members got an A bid?

What gives?
GO BC!

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Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: South Region Playoff Watch
« Reply #19 on: October 11, 2005, 02:58:37 pm »
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Let's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

Offline Josh Bowerman

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Re: South Region Playoff Watch
« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2005, 03:09:54 pm »
I'll give it a go, just for kicks and giggles:

South Region preditions, Round one, winners paired for next round:

Christopher Newport (USAC Champ) at Hardin-Simmons
Mary Hardin-Baylor/East Texas Baptist at Trinity


Rationale:  ACFC will come down to last week of season.  If Salisbury wins, the committee will likely shy away from a Salisbury/CNU rematch in the first round.  Texas sub-bracket in-tact w/ likely a one-time-only flight.  CNU gets the long road game because of two-loss record (albeit to two potential playoff teams).

Thomas More (PAC Champ) at Bridgewater
Salisbury (ACFC Champ) at John's Hopkins (CC Champ)


Rationale:  As above w/ regard to Salisbury.  Really, IMO, these four teams are interchangeable as far as who hosts whom, due to relatively close geographic proximity.  

If DePauw, Thiel or W&J get a bid, then I think they get shipped to another region.  

Predicted Pool A's from South Region:  HSU, Trinity, Bridgewater, Christopher Newport, John's Hopkins

Predicted Pool B's from South Region:  Salisbury, Thomas More

Predicted Pool C's from South Region:  Mary Hardin-Baylor or East Texas Baptist
« Last Edit: October 11, 2005, 03:13:39 pm by Josh Bowerman »
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Offline pakownr97

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Thanks, Pat
« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2005, 03:14:12 pm »
Since you did such a fine job on that question, here's another.

How many Pool B v Pool C bids will there be this year?

I read the criteria and could probably figure it out, but I don't want to be "kidlike."

Besides, I am sure Pat already knows.

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Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: South Region Playoff Watch
« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2005, 03:18:36 pm »
It's in the FAQ.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Let's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

Offline Josh Bowerman

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Re: South Region Playoff Watch
« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2005, 03:20:11 pm »
Yup.  But, the answer is four.  Though probably only three will outright deserve the bid. 

My guess is the fourth Pool B goes to the PAC this year.  Thiel will get it if they lose to TMC and win out.  TMC gets it if they lose to Thiel and win out.  W&J gets it if Thiel beats TMC and W&J wins out. 

Any of those three teams could be shipped to another region based on geographic proximity.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2005, 03:23:19 pm by Josh Bowerman »
"Without struggle, there is no progress."--Frederick Douglass

Offline Toby Taff

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Re: South Region Playoff Watch
« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2005, 03:27:27 pm »
Josh
My prediction if MHB and HSU both make the playoffs and you are correct on seeding.  The Loser of the October 22 game (HSU if both go) advances out of the bracket.

Did I just say that ??? ??? ???
My wife and I are Alumni of both UMHB and HSU.  You think you are confused, my kids don't know which Purple and Gold team to pull for.

Offline Josh Bowerman

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Re: South Region Playoff Watch
« Reply #25 on: October 11, 2005, 03:39:50 pm »
I'm giving the nod to HSU, because I think HSU and UMHB will likely beat ETBU this year.  So, unless I'm mistaken, regardless of the HSU/UMHB outcome, HSU would win the ASC due to the winning percentage tiebreaker in effect due to the UMHB/LC cancellation--assuming they beat ETBU this weekend.  Barring tremendous upset, I think HSU needs one win over ETBU/UMHB to win the ASC.

Do remember that the committee doesn't schedule the games based on "seeds"--i.e. it's not a 1-8, 7-2 thing, but could be a 1-3, 2-4 thing.  Geography takes precedent over everything else.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2005, 03:58:52 pm by Josh Bowerman »
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Offline Josh Bowerman

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Re: South Region Playoff Watch
« Reply #26 on: October 11, 2005, 03:47:13 pm »
My early predictions for overall Pool C bids is as follows (in no particular order):

ASC #2 team:  East Texas Baptist or Mary Hardin-Baylor, whoever wins on 10/29.

OAC #2 team:  Otterbein or John Carroll, whoever wins on 10/29;  assuming Otterbein beats Ohio Northern this Saturday.

CCIW #2 team:  Augustana, North Central or Carthage.  Augustana controlls own fate in Pool A race, and can likely get only Pool A bid.  Carthage can likely only get Pool C due to loss vs. Augustana last Saturday.

MAC #2 team:  If it's Delaware Valley, otherwise not sure the MAC gets two in.

MIAC #2 team:  St. John's/Concordia-Moorhead/St. Olaf, whichever team finishes conference play with only one conference and overall loss.

IIAC #2 team:  If it's Central, otherwise not sure the IIAC gets two in.

Other possibilities for the seven Pool C slots include St. John Fisher, McDaniel, DePauw, Hobart and Union.  My guess is that, of this group, St. John Fisher (overtime loser to conference champ Ithaca)  and the Hobart/Union loser have the inside track. 

McDaniel will be done if they lose to JHU with two losses.  Don't know what to think about DePauw, but they'd be out with a loss to Wabash.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2005, 04:23:41 pm by Josh Bowerman »
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Offline Toby Taff

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Re: South Region Playoff Watch
« Reply #27 on: October 11, 2005, 03:59:03 pm »
Seeding was a bad term, I meant according to your match up.  I really hate to give the nod to HSU, but if both teams are in then MHB beat HSU on 10/22 and you know what they say about beating the same team twice in a season. Also, we know what these games are like normally.  I must say, I wouldn't mind another trip to Trinity, though.  Those games are fun to watch
My wife and I are Alumni of both UMHB and HSU.  You think you are confused, my kids don't know which Purple and Gold team to pull for.

Offline Bill McCabe

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Re: South Region Playoff Watch
« Reply #28 on: October 11, 2005, 04:00:45 pm »
Josh,  A 2nd ASC team with 2 losses?  Just wondering.  Hope it is true.

Offline Bob.Gregg

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Re: South Region Playoff Watch
« Reply #29 on: October 11, 2005, 04:02:28 pm »
If W&J runs the table, they'll get a bid, whether it's Pool B or Pool C.

(you veterans KNOW I love to stir THIS pot).
Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.