FB: Region 3 fan poll

Started by Pat Coleman, June 23, 2008, 10:04:45 AM

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jknezek

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 08, 2012, 06:20:11 PM
Quote from: jknezek on October 08, 2012, 05:39:13 PM
Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 08, 2012, 03:53:50 PM
B-SC gets Trinity at home this week, jknezek.   For what it's worth, Millsaps does play in SA.

You think I'd remember that since I'm planning to go! What can I say, I have 3 kids under 3 including 10 month old twins. Some days I can't remember my own name...
or theirs...

"BILLY!   BETTY!  SAM !  WHOEVER YOU ARE!  STOP PULLING THE DOG'S EARS AND GET BACK IN THE HOUSE!  ;)

So true. The twins are Paul and Jack, and most of the time it goes "Pajack" or "JaPaul" and we still get it wrong. Thankfully the almost 3 year old is Annie, so it's easy to get her right. We've only called her the dogs name a couple times!

Ralph Turner


1)  UMHB  (5)50      1,1,1,1,1     
2)  Wesley452,2,2,2,2
3)  JHU383,3,3,4,4,
4)  La College333,3,4,5,7
5)  Huntingdon314,4,5,5,6
....
6)  Waynesburg245,6,6,7,7
7)  B-SC175,7,8,9,9
8)  Wash & Lee146,8,8,9,10
9)  Millsaps116,8,9,10,x
10) Trinity 77,8,x,x,x
....
RV)  CMU39,10,x,x,x
RV)  Muhlenberg     110,x,x,x,x
RV)  SRSU110,x,x,x,x

Ralph Turner

#692
The first 8 places make sense.

UMHB -- headed toward the ASC Pool A
Wesley -- leading Pool B contender
JHU -- leading the Centennial
La College -- a two-loss team, Wesley and UMHB
Huntingdon -- beat HSC and Millsaps; lost to BSC.  (Still has Wesley and in-region, MIAA-leading Adrian on the schedule. )

Waynesburg -- leading the Pres AC.
B-SC -- Pool B team "leading" the SAA. Beat Huntingdon but lost to Wesley and Trinity.
Wash & Lee -- leading the ODAC..




SRSU is mine.  IMHO, they are among the 10 best teams in the South Region.

Yes, they have the blowout loss to UMHB. They play wide open and don't have the depth to match head-up with UMHB.  They died by the sword! They have great talent at specialty positions.

They led TLU by 39 with 20 minutes left in the game, scoring 63 points in the first 40 minutes. 

They beat Trinity by 27! 

They beat Mississippi College 75-42 on the road, a 900-mile road trip. (Millsaps beat MissColl in OT.)   

I would pick them in a pick'em against everyone except UMHB, Wesley, JHU and maybe LaCollege  (I gotta think about that one this week.)

CMU? Whom have they beaten?  We will see how they do against Ohio Wesleyan.
Muhlenberg?  Losses to JHU and Susquehanna; one okay and one weak!  Nice win over Gettysburg.

jknezek

There is a lot of cross game slop between Huntingdon, B-SC, Trinity, SRSU, and Millsaps. So you are going to have to pick who you want to include and who you don't. Say what you want about SRSU, but they have 3 losses, one good win, they almost choked at TLU (the game is 60 minutes, not 30 or 40, and you and I have just seemed to butt heads over that idea today!), and everyone has beaten Miss College (1-5). You may want to give a lot of props to a 3-3 team, but I find it hard to do so on the back of 1 good win, 1 .500 win, and one win over a bad team. At some point, you have to win the games on your schedule to get credit and they are still just a .500 team.

I've got Trinity and Millsaps on my run because Trinity just beat an undefeated top 5 team on the road. Millsaps is on my run because someone has to hold down the tenth spot. They have 1 loss and didn't have a bye last week. That tenth spot could go to a lot of teams and you could put SRSU there, but I just have a hard time rewarding .500 performance.

Ralph Turner

#694
Sul Ross has 2 losses to D-II programs.

Of the six closest non-BSC, non-conference programs to Alpine TX, they played 3 of them! (The other three are Abilene Chirstian and McMurry in D-II and Wayland Baptist, a first year NAIA program that Austin College beat last week.)

There is no one out there from them to play.  They are 300 miles away from everyone!  They are 3-1 versus D-III.

Sully hosts LaCollege and then goes to HSU the next week. I believe that the ASC has three of the Top 10 teams in the Region.

We will be much closer to knowing who that is in 2 weeks.

jknezek

You may be right Ralph, but I just can't make exceptions for geography. You have to win. They are .75 winning percentage against D3 teams. Everyone in the poll is better than that. If they lose to LC, you really are going to have a sub .500 team in the top 10? I suppose you can feel that they would win against "anyone else" but they aren't proving it. If they do win against LC, what do you then do about an LC team that is barely over .500 at 4-3? It just gets real hard to rank teams that don't win. I know SOS counts, but if you want to consider yourself a top team, you have to prove it on the field in my opinion. HSU might be a better argument than SRSU, although again you are probably looking at a 4-3 team after this weekend.

The ASC will sort itself out for the second/third place team in the conference over the next couple weeks, but if they all eat themselves you won't get me to rank 5 ASC .500 teams in the top 10 just because of a feeling that they are all good if only they didn't have to play each other.

Your mileage may vary!

Ralph Turner

Good discussion...

Let's play head-to head.

What is the score of every other team in the SRTop 10 versus the ASC schools that I have mentioned?  UMHB probably beats them all by 30+ points.  I think that JHU could play them closest (of the rest) just because of the concentration, sophistication and execution of the game plan that they chose.  (I remember the Wesley 12-0 win over JHU in 2009.)

Historically, the ASC dominated the Pres AC in the post-season.

The ASC has beaten Trinity since the mid-2000's. Last year's McMurry win over Trinity was with the second string QB.

Mississippi College beat Huntingdon in 2009.

UMHB beat CNU and NCWC in separate post-seasons a few years ago.

Wesley has been the team that has given us (UMHB and Miss Coll) trouble. We have not played ODAC or Centennial schools in the playoffs.

Pat Coleman

If you have the same torrential downpour for your JHU-UMHB game, ok. :)
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 17, 2012, 12:25:42 AM
If you have the same torrential downpour for your JHU-UMHB game, ok. :)
Yes, I had that in the back of my mind, but I wanted to give JHU credit for dealing with the weather as a smart team that is not likely to beat itself.

The Wesley fans frequently talk about the stupid penalties and mistakes that they must overcome. I see fewer similar comments coming from the JHU fans.

I have seen a kickoff blown backwards by the wind at Belton High School TX stadium.  ;)

Toby Taff

I felt sorry for NCWC. The weather was horrible. Cold and raining with wind and they were standing on the sidelines with no coats or rain gear. Someone must have lied to them about just how miserable it can get in Texas.
My wife and I are Alumni of both UMHB and HSU.  You think you are confused, my kids don't know which Purple and Gold team to pull for.

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 16, 2012, 08:06:39 PM
SRSU is mine.  IMHO, they are among the 10 best teams in the South Region.

They led TLU by 39 with 20 minutes left in the game, scoring 63 points in the first 40 minutes. 
They beat Trinity by 27! 
They beat Mississippi College 75-42 on the road, a 900-mile road trip. (Millsaps beat MissColl in OT.)   

...

CMU? Whom have they beaten?  We will see how they do against Ohio Wesleyan.

CMU has beaten:

A 3-3 Grove City team who just took your very own #6 Waynesburg to the wire on Waynesburg's home field.

A 4-2 Allegheny team that would beat Wabash the next week and currently sits atop the NCAC (although I doubt that will last very long).  This win was also by 30 points on the road.

A 3-3 Catholic team who recently defeated 2011 ODAC champ and playoff team Hampden-Sydney.  This was also a blowout win.

A 1-5 DePauw team that admittedly isn't very good and was in turmoil at the time.  CMU led that game 51-7 before calling off the dogs.  I think we can consider this somewhat parallel to the aforementioned SRSU win over TLU.

A 2-4 Denison team who also admittedly isn't very good.  CMU won by 20 (missing three of their top four running backs) and called off the dogs once the lead extended to 41-21.

Combined record of CMU's five vanquished opponents in non-CMU games: 13-13.  Only one of those victories was competitive into the fourth quarter (Grove City in the opener).  Seems reasonable enough to me.  Is it enough for me to guarantee that CMU would beat SRSU head to head?  Of course not.  Is it enough for me to think it's a reasonable question?  Absolutely.

CMU's loss came 54-28 to Wabash, but if we apply your "throw out a bad half" corollary, Carnegie Mellon statistically dominated the first half and was within 31-28 after three quarters before it got away from them.  Is that any different from your dismissal of SRSU's loss to UMHB?
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

jknezek

I don't know Ralph. I agree that the ASC is the top conference in the region. UMHB and Wesley are the top programs in the region. And I have no problem with the fact that UMHB dominates the other conference champions in the region. In fact, as the best conference in the region, I'll give you the second team in the conference, in my mind LC right now, as being better than the champions of almost any other conference in the region. But I don't think the ASC's third, fourth, fifth place teams, which right now are pretty indistinguishable, are better than the other conference champions.

HSU (4-2) lost to two very good teams out west, so there is no way to really compare them to other south region conferences, but they've feasted on the bottom of the ASC so far.  SRSU lost up in division twice and had the exact same result most of the region will have against UMHB, a slaughter. They have a win against Trinity and that counts for something. To be fair, Trinity did better against UMHB. Of course, just about everyone did better against UMHB, since no one else has given them 50 points, let alone 76! SRSU did score on UMHB, but Wesley, Trinity, and TLU scored as much or more without giving up the same number of points. So against a common opponent, SRSU loses some of the points it picked up against Trinity.

TLU carries the same record as SRSU, of course they've played some bad teams, got hammered by Trinity, and ALMOST came back on a SRSU team that tried real hard to choke that game. The rest of the ASC is pretty bad. HPU got killed by Trinity and some not so good schools, ETBU has hung tough with almost everyone, but can't seem to figure out how to win, and MC is just bad. They've been killed by almost everyone, EXCEPT they hung 42 points on your favorite SRSU. They gave up 75, but no one else has given up more than 24, and that was a bad Webber Int'l team.

In other words, the top team in the ASC is insanely good and gets credit for it. The second team is very good and gets credit for it, the third team, which could be any one of 3 teams including your favorite SRSU, each has a question marks to go with a plaudit or two. And that is not a convincing argument that the 3rd team in the ASC would win head to head against the other conference champions in the region.

Personally I think SRSU loses to LC and HSU in the next two weeks, so this discussion will be irrelevant by seasons end. I also think HSU ends the season 6-4, and for a conference where the third place team is supposed to be so dominating, that's just not very good...

Pat Coleman

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 17, 2012, 12:51:28 AM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 17, 2012, 12:25:42 AM
If you have the same torrential downpour for your JHU-UMHB game, ok. :)
Yes, I had that in the back of my mind, but I wanted to give JHU credit for dealing with the weather as a smart team that is not likely to beat itself.

The Wesley fans frequently talk about the stupid penalties and mistakes that they must overcome. I see fewer similar comments coming from the JHU fans.

I have seen a kickoff blown backwards by the wind at Belton High School TX stadium.  ;)

Corrected. :)
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

Ralph Turner

Great comments.  Thanks. (NSFW at this time, so I will respond tonight.)

We have some great football coming up.  CMU versus OWU is a big game for me.  A 9-1 CMU definitely belongs!

Ralph Turner

QuoteIn other words, the top team in the ASC is insanely good and gets credit for it. The second team is very good and gets credit for it, the third team, which could be any one of 3 teams including your favorite SRSU, each has a question marks to go with a plaudit or two. And that is not a convincing argument that the 3rd team in the ASC would win head to head against the other conference champions in the region.

Personally I think SRSU loses to LC and HSU in the next two weeks, so this discussion will be irrelevant by seasons end. I also think HSU ends the season 6-4, and for a conference where the third place team is supposed to be so dominating, that's just not very good...

Good post.  I wonder if SRSU can keep up their momentum. The program has not had consecutive years to build a winning attitude that mature programs have in a long long time.  I wonder if Carson and Springer can carry this team on their shoulders for the rest of the season.  Right now, your projection has HSU losing to the #2, #3, #20 and #RV26.  That is a murderers' row.  For the sake of the South Region top 10, which of the teams in the Top 10 go at least 1-3 against UMHB, LaCollege, Linfield and Willamette?  You almost make the case for comparing HSU head-to-head against those SR Top 10 teams who cannot beat those 4 teams.

As I look at the West Region Rankings, I can see the first Regional Rankings having these Top 25 teams in it:

Linfield
St Thomas
UW-Whitewater
Cal Lutheran
UW-Oshkosh
Bethel
UW-Platteville
Willamette
Coe
(and a #10 TBA  ?Concordia Moorhead?).
:)