FB: Region 3 fan poll

Started by Pat Coleman, June 23, 2008, 10:04:45 AM

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Toby Taff

Quote from: jknezek on September 11, 2013, 10:07:34 AM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 11, 2013, 09:59:26 AM
The Bridgewater "love" is just No. 10 in the region. I'm not sure that's really a huge vote of confidence. Didn't show any more or any less than Hampden-Sydney did in Week 1.

Agreed it's not a big deal. I'm more interested in the logic behind voting them 6, rather than the aggregate at 10. Usually there is an ODAC team toward the middle/bottom of the poll, and it could be either of those teams. It's more the single 6 vote that interests me. I just wonder if it is a "gut feel" kind of thing, which I have occassionally used as well, or something I'm missing or just willfully ignoring. It could be any or all of the above. The six just seems to stand out to me based on the readily available information.

And speaking of that, I'm surprised CNU didn't get more love for topping Salisbury. I understand Salisbury may not be the Salisbury of the last couple years, but you beat a top 25 team you usually get some love. CNU struggled to get over that hurdle the last couple years, and had some benefit of the doubt, this year they get through the hurdle and got almost no love! Of course, any issues with that should get corrected this week when HSC and CNU meet. Can't help but think that the winner of that game will deserve a decent spot in the poll.
Bridgewater at 6 is from my poll, and is based on a bunch of nothing as are most of the polls in the first few weeks. I set my preseason poll largely on how south region schools are ranked in kick-off (i defer to the experts) and go from there. I'll take a good look at every team after week 2 and re-evaluate. As Keith said in his ATN article today the more info you have the better you can reassess. I expect a lot of change as teams play common opponents and relative strength can be better assessed.
My wife and I are Alumni of both UMHB and HSU.  You think you are confused, my kids don't know which Purple and Gold team to pull for.

jknezek

Quote from: Toby Taff on September 11, 2013, 03:13:44 PM
Quote from: jknezek on September 11, 2013, 10:07:34 AM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 11, 2013, 09:59:26 AM
The Bridgewater "love" is just No. 10 in the region. I'm not sure that's really a huge vote of confidence. Didn't show any more or any less than Hampden-Sydney did in Week 1.

Agreed it's not a big deal. I'm more interested in the logic behind voting them 6, rather than the aggregate at 10. Usually there is an ODAC team toward the middle/bottom of the poll, and it could be either of those teams. It's more the single 6 vote that interests me. I just wonder if it is a "gut feel" kind of thing, which I have occassionally used as well, or something I'm missing or just willfully ignoring. It could be any or all of the above. The six just seems to stand out to me based on the readily available information.

And speaking of that, I'm surprised CNU didn't get more love for topping Salisbury. I understand Salisbury may not be the Salisbury of the last couple years, but you beat a top 25 team you usually get some love. CNU struggled to get over that hurdle the last couple years, and had some benefit of the doubt, this year they get through the hurdle and got almost no love! Of course, any issues with that should get corrected this week when HSC and CNU meet. Can't help but think that the winner of that game will deserve a decent spot in the poll.
Bridgewater at 6 is from my poll, and is based on a bunch of nothing as are most of the polls in the first few weeks. I set my preseason poll largely on how south region schools are ranked in kick-off (i defer to the experts) and go from there. I'll take a good look at every team after week 2 and re-evaluate. As Keith said in his ATN article today the more info you have the better you can reassess. I expect a lot of change as teams play common opponents and relative strength can be better assessed.

True enough. After the first 5, it seems like the South is always very mix and match. I just can't figure out what I'm missing on Bridgewater, i.e. what makes this year all that much different from the last decade, but a lot of people keep telling me that it is. I guess I just need to pipe down and wait, cause the Eagles should start 4-0. If they don't, something went horribly wrong.

PA_wesleyfan

  I am waiting to see Salisbury against Wesley this week before I give CNU  my vote. Then again like everyone else it's going to be a few weeks before we see who is for real and who the early pretenders are.
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FCGrizzliesGrad

I thought I'd pop in here and see if anyone would be interested in participating in the Top 25 Fan Poll. We could always use more voters but especially voters who aren't from the north. Send me a PM if interested.
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jknezek

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on September 12, 2013, 03:25:17 AM
I thought I'd pop in here and see if anyone would be interested in participating in the Top 25 Fan Poll. We could always use more voters but especially voters who aren't from the north. Send me a PM if interested.

Hard enough for me to keep track of the south. Think that's about all I can handle.

Ralph Turner

#755
Week #2




TeamPoints         Ballots
1)   UMHB501,1,1,1,1
2)   Wesley452,2,2,2,2
3)   JHU393,3,3,3,4
4)   LaColllege303,4,5,6,7
5)   CNU244,5,6,8,8
...
6)   B-SC234,5,5,7,x
7)   Bridgewater164,7,8,9,x
8)   Thomas More145,6,8,x,x
9)   Huntingdon    106,7,10,x,x
10)  Texas Lutheran  76,9,x,x,x
...
RV)  Emory & Henry57,10,x,x,x
RV)  Millsaps39,10,x,x,x
RV)  Geneva29,x,x,x,x
RV)  Hampden-Sydney  29,x,x,x,x
RV)  Wash & Jeff  210,10,x,x,x



Thanks to jknezek for his proofreading. 

Yes, this is all over the place below the top 5.

jknezek

#756
Yeesh. Hard to believe we have 14 teams receiving votes and only 5 teams on all ballots. Got to love the South. Pretty cut and dry at the top, but after that we are all over the map. So very interesting. Kind of surprised to see Emory and Henry making an appearance. Wouldn't have bet on that.

Ralph check your IM...

Ralph Turner

I have a problem with H-SC losing by 10 points on the road at #5 and then falling off the list!

I think that the SAA is up for grabs.  Millsaps did not put away LaGrange the way that I thought that they should have.  Hendrix?  Wow!

I wish that we could see CNU versus Huntingdon.

Fortunately, we will get a shakeout of TMC, W&J and Geneva.

jknezek

Quote from: Ralph Turner on September 17, 2013, 09:43:05 PM
I have a problem with H-SC losing by 10 points on the road at #5 and then falling off the list!

I think that the SAA is up for grabs.  Millsaps did not put away LaGrange the way that I thought that they should have.  Hendrix?  Wow!

I wish that we could see CNU versus Huntingdon.

Fortunately, we will get a shakeout of TMC, W&J and Geneva.

This is a good point. My problem with CNU is I don't think they are all that good. They caught both Salisbury and CNU on really bad days. If Salisbury played like they did against Wesley, it would have been a more traditional result. If H-SC hadn't committed 8, count them 8, turnovers, it would have been a different result. HOWEVER, CNU did win both games and, looking at that schedule, they are going to have to do something unexpected to lose from here on out. So I'm just looking forward and thinking that you are looking at a 10-0 or 9-1 team with two quality wins. How can they not be ranked that high, even though I'm not convinced they could take some of the teams behind them on the field.

That being said, I didn't have H-SC all that high to begin with. And losing at this point, is kind of a reason to be dropped out in favor of teams that aren't losing. And we have lots of teams that aren't losing right now, as we should early on. So there is a lot of competition for those bottom spots.

I'm not sure about E&H. They beat two teams they beat last year about the same way, then proceeded to be very mediocre in ODAC play. Ferrum lost to Shenandoah, so I'm not real sure hanging E&H's had on that win is all that credible. So if you move those votes to H-SC, they end up in the bottom of the poll. All that being said, the only ODAC team I have in my poll is Bridgewater, and that's more by default than anything. Certainly they haven't shown much more than E&H, but of the ODAC undefeateds, they have 2 wins and some Kickoff momentum. I guess I'll roll with them unless someone shows me something better.

The whole bottom of the poll is just mix and match and you can make an argument for any of the 10 teams listed from 5 through RV as well as a few more that none of us have bothered with yet.

I can't wait to see the La Col at Huntingdon game this weekend. Really curious about both those teams as it is hard to judge anything by the early results. I also plan to be at Wesley at B-SC the following week. I wasn't real impressed with B-SC last year when I saw them lose to Trinity and both teams promptly dropped another game in the weeks that followed. I'll be interested to see if B-SC looks more solid this year and how Wesley stacks up to the team I saw struggle at Huntingdon last season.

Toby Taff

I'll let it be known that some of the craziness is from me. I have a formula that I'm using to sort things out that seems pretty good. I went back to last season and plugged in results and it was pretty close to the year end results. because it gives a numeric result, until we have a bigger sample of games, the results are a bit skewed, but really only after the top 3 or 4 so i'm using it as a filter for now to limit the pool. That means after that there may be great fluctuation for a few weeks
My wife and I are Alumni of both UMHB and HSU.  You think you are confused, my kids don't know which Purple and Gold team to pull for.

roocru

Check out the new UMHB video on the Cru website listed below.  Click on the link that says "Top Videos" under the rotating pictures. Then click on the second video from the top on the left hand menu.  It is a time lapse of the stadium construction with some highlights thrown in.  It is titled "We've been counting down the days..."  Way cool!

http://www.cruathletics.com/index.aspx?tab=football&path=football
Anything that you ardently desire, vividly imagine, totally believe and enthusiastically pursue will inevitably come to pass !!!

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: jknezek on September 17, 2013, 09:01:08 PM
Yeesh. Hard to believe we have 14 teams receiving votes and only 5 teams on all ballots. Got to love the South. Pretty cut and dry at the top, but after that we are all over the map. So very interesting. Kind of surprised to see Emory and Henry making an appearance. Wouldn't have bet on that.

Ralph check your IM...

This is kinda cool, though.  In the North there are only 11 teams receiving votes and of those not currently named there are probably only 1-2 teams that even have a chance to get a vote this season.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

jknezek

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on September 19, 2013, 11:11:45 AM
Quote from: jknezek on September 17, 2013, 09:01:08 PM
Yeesh. Hard to believe we have 14 teams receiving votes and only 5 teams on all ballots. Got to love the South. Pretty cut and dry at the top, but after that we are all over the map. So very interesting. Kind of surprised to see Emory and Henry making an appearance. Wouldn't have bet on that.

Ralph check your IM...

This is kinda cool, though.  In the North there are only 11 teams receiving votes and of those not currently named there are probably only 1-2 teams that even have a chance to get a vote this season.

I'm pretty sure my watchlist is more than 11 teams deep at this point. It will get itself sorted out. In the South, the first 4 or 5 are consistent, but I can't help but think there is a pretty big gap between 2 and 3 and another big gap between 5 and 6. Six through 10 could be almost anyone in any given year, especially after week 2. I would think at the end we'd be down to only 1 to 3 teams in the RV category. I think last year we went 4,3,2 in the RV category in the last 3 weeks.

It's a lot of fun and I'm glad Ralph runs the poll every year and allowed me to join last year.

roocru

Quote from: Toby Taff on September 17, 2013, 10:31:59 PM
I'll let it be known that some of the craziness is from me. I have a formula that I'm using to sort things out that seems pretty good. I went back to last season and plugged in results and it was pretty close to the year end results. because it gives a numeric result, until we have a bigger sample of games, the results are a bit skewed, but really only after the top 3 or 4 so i'm using it as a filter for now to limit the pool. That means after that there may be great fluctuation for a few weeks

Toby et. al,  I have no formula but I get an average of the rankings from Kickoff, Born, LAZ and compughter.com.  After I rank the top 25 teams in this manner, I go back and use my own knowledge of South Region history, current scores from this year and my own intuition (as sorry as that may be) to rank my Top 10.  I admit I don't take teams who have had a sorry playoff record too seriously early in my picks but they gain credence as the season goes along if they continue to be successful.
Anything that you ardently desire, vividly imagine, totally believe and enthusiastically pursue will inevitably come to pass !!!

Ralph Turner

#764
Week #3




TeamPoints         Ballots           Conference
1)   UMHB501,1,1,1,1ASC
2)   JHU452,2,2,2,2Centennial
3)   Wesley363,3,3,4,6Independent
4)   CNU253,5,5,7,10USA South
5)   B-SC243,4,6,8,10Southern AA
...
6)   Huntingdon    205,5,6,8,xUSA South
7)   Thomas More194,4,7,10,xPres AC
8)   Bridgewater174,7,7,9,xODAC
9)   LaCollege126,8,8,10,xASC
10)  Millsaps95,8,x,x,xSouthern AA
...
RV)  Texas Lutheran  76,9,x,x,xSCAC
RV)  Emory & Henry47,x,x,x,xODAC
RV)  Geneva29,x,x,x,xPres AC
RV)  Hampden-Sydney  29,x,x,x,xODAC
RV)  Ursinus29,x,x,x,xCentennial
RV)  Wash & Jeff  110,x,x,x,xPres AC



Corrections appreciated.