D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

Started by usee, October 20, 2010, 04:26:33 PM

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smedindy

Quote from: hazzben on September 18, 2011, 11:22:34 PM
Quote from: smedindy on September 18, 2011, 10:54:35 PM
It's not political. To me, it's simple. As I stated before, will team X beat team Y a majority of times. It's not about getting respect or not. Flukes happen. But I can't rank on the basis of a fluke. (Not to say Miss. College beating Hardin - Simmons was a total fluke, but I do think Hardin-Simmons will beat them 3 times out of 5 on a neutral field...)

That's not simple...that's simply subjective. Why was it a fluke? Because you say so? Because you think so? Why would Hardin-Simmons win 3 of 5? I'm not going to tell anyone how to fill out their ballot, everyone's got to figure out their philosophy. And the difference in philosophies is part of the fun. But yours is clearly to put more weight upon subjective data than objective data.

Mississippi College was up 45 - 14 with 8 minutes to play. 14 of HS points and 150 yds of offense came in the closing minutes, even seconds of the game. And MC still won by 17 points. I don't see how this is a fluke and I see no evidence that would suggest that Hardin-Simmons should be considered the favorite in a 5, 7 or 10 game series.

I want to see the Massey data after this week, when the teams are more connected. But my analytical, dispassionate side says that the HSC - Miss College game was 'one of those days' for both teams. My fan side roots for the underdog and is quite intrigued by results like this. However, I don't vote with my heart. (I tend to gamble with my heart - that's why I avoid sports books!)

One from this year:

St. John's losing to UW-EC by a gazillion was a fluke. Play that game again and St. John's remains close or wins. One result does not make it a trend. One lambasting does not make a team dominant against the other. It just happened on that day and time.

And one from the NFL.

Tennessee beat Baltimore yesterday. If you saw Baltimore last Sunday against Pittsburgh, you'd think that there would be absolute zero chance the Titans could beat them. Remember, the Titans lost to the moribund Jags on opening week. But beat them they did and made the Ravens look silly.

As a fan, I loved it. But in ranking the teams, I can only think that was a fluke result.

02 Warhawk

Because Miss College beat HSU so convincingly Saturday, I put Miss College (previously unranked) ahead of HSU in my new poll. If the game was closer I probably won't have dropped HSU so far down. I moved HSU from #8 down to #20, and slid Miss College into the polls at #19. I felt comfortable doing so b/c Miss College's only loss this year is to a scholarship-offering school.

However, I still have NCC ahead of Redlands, mostly b/c it was a close game in week 1, AND NCC was ranked #3 to begin the season. So, to me, that gap was too big to close (#3 ranked team in NCC and a non ranked team in Redlands) to put Redlands ahead of NCC in the week two's poll. If Redlands destroyed NCC, that that's a different story, then I probably wold have put NCC further down in the poll, and Redlands ahead of them (like what I did to HSU and Miss College).

Pat Coleman

Quote from: smedindy on September 17, 2011, 11:29:19 PM
Can't pull the trigger on Catholic... :(

Pretty sure they are going to get rolled by Hampden-Sydney if they play like that. They'd give up 45 to H-SC easily.
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Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

Pat Coleman

Quote from: HSC85 on September 18, 2011, 10:42:31 PM
Well the voters in the D3 Top 25 poll certainly answered the question I posed.  Hardin Simmons is still ranked ahead of Mississippi College even after the result on Saturday.  I really feel bad for the schools who actually beat a top team and still don't get any respect from some people. 

smedindy,

I guess you were right.  It is case by case and some teams get penalized for a performance that is not up to the expected standards and some teams don't.  It seems very political to me and that is a shame.  At least the championship is not dependent on what a group of pollsters think.

Pretty sure that going from zero votes to No. 23 is "any respect." I can't picture any politics on our panel that would favor one ASC team over another.
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Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

jknezek

Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 19, 2011, 11:12:54 AM
Quote from: smedindy on September 17, 2011, 11:29:19 PM
Can't pull the trigger on Catholic... :(

Pretty sure they are going to get rolled by Hampden-Sydney if they play like that. They'd give up 45 to H-SC easily.

Pretty sure most of the ODAC is going to get rolled by Hampden-Sydney. I had some hope for the Generals after last year's stellar conference campaign, but turnovers and penalties are falling out much different, surprising given the number of seniors on the field. Combined with no longer sneaking up on anyone, and having to play on the road at H-SC, I think this is H-SC's conference to lose. Of course, like last year, the Tigers are going to have to play ALL the games. Votes only win championships when money rules!

emma17

When I complete the top 25 I do so from the perspective of who I think deserves to be there now, not necessarily where I think the teams will be at season's end.  This idea can be a struggle for me as I have to remind myself to think here and now and not to project where teams will end up- no matter how I try I think my poll becomes a blend.

From this perspective, I can rank a bunch of teams ahead of NCC for now, however, I believe the season will prove that NCC is a top 5 team.  For instance, I don't think for a second that Ohio Northern or Wartburg and some others could beat North Central (and I wonder if the D3 pollsters don't feel the same), however, the teams are rewarded/punished based on current results.       

02 Warhawk

Quote from: emma17 on September 19, 2011, 12:26:26 PM
When I complete the top 25 I do so from the perspective of who I think deserves to be there now, not necessarily where I think the teams will be at season's end.

I think that's a fare statement. I think most people fill out their polls using the same philosophy.

The only time I fill out my poll on where I think each team will finish up is my preseason poll. To me, the perfect preseason poll will mirror the final poll.

hazzben

Quote from: smedindy on September 19, 2011, 09:14:56 AM

One from this year:

St. John's losing to UW-EC by a gazillion was a fluke. Play that game again and St. John's remains close or wins. One result does not make it a trend. One lambasting does not make a team dominant against the other. It just happened on that day and time.


Not sure many Johnnie fans would agree with your take. They play again and SJU probably keeps it closer, but I don't think they'd win. UWEC dominated them from start to finish in every aspect of the game. They were faster. They were more physical. They were more disciplined. They executed better. And it all happened in Collegeville.

From what I read on the MIAC board, to a poster, SJU fans admitted they got dominated by a superior team. What makes you think SJU could possibly win that game in a rematch?

emma17

Quote from: 02 Warhawk on September 19, 2011, 02:25:24 PM
Quote from: emma17 on September 19, 2011, 12:26:26 PM
When I complete the top 25 I do so from the perspective of who I think deserves to be there now, not necessarily where I think the teams will be at season's end.

I think that's a fare statement. I think most people fill out their polls using the same philosophy.
The only time I fill out my poll on where I think each team will finish up is my preseason poll. To me, the perfect preseason poll will mirror the final poll.

I was curious if that was the case.
In this week's poll I did jump ahead to prediciting season's end with one team- I moved NCC to #3.  From the perspective of results through today it's probably unfair to other teams.  But in keeping them lower, such as 11 like D3 has them, I feel it's kind of playing a game.  Their last two victories tell me that whatever happened in week 1 is not indicative of who they are.   

MasterJedi

Quote from: emma17 on September 19, 2011, 07:22:55 PM
Quote from: 02 Warhawk on September 19, 2011, 02:25:24 PM
Quote from: emma17 on September 19, 2011, 12:26:26 PM
When I complete the top 25 I do so from the perspective of who I think deserves to be there now, not necessarily where I think the teams will be at season's end.

I think that's a fare statement. I think most people fill out their polls using the same philosophy.
The only time I fill out my poll on where I think each team will finish up is my preseason poll. To me, the perfect preseason poll will mirror the final poll.

I was curious if that was the case.
In this week's poll I did jump ahead to prediciting season's end with one team- I moved NCC to #3.  From the perspective of results through today it's probably unfair to other teams.  But in keeping them lower, such as 11 like D3 has them, I feel it's kind of playing a game.  Their last two victories tell me that whatever happened in week 1 is not indicative of who they are.   

My top 7 remained the same (NCC at 7) but I can say if they win big against Wheaton and IWU and the rest of the CCIW they'll be back at #3, if they win close games (winning by 3-7 points) then I don't see myself moving them up as long as nobody above them loses.

Pat Coleman

Quote from: HSC85 on September 19, 2011, 02:36:49 PM
Pat,

I have no complaint about the votes that HSC is getting.  I just watch teams lose to teams that are supposed to be weaker and the penalty is not very strong.  Especially if they were already in the top 25.  If you are in the top 15 it seems to take two losses to get bounced.  My comments had nothing to do with Hampden Sydney.

Neither did mine. Not sure what I said that would make you think I was talking about anyone other than Mississippi College, which went from 0 votes to No. 23 in the country.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

smedindy

Quote from: hazzben on September 19, 2011, 02:52:21 PM
Quote from: smedindy on September 19, 2011, 09:14:56 AM

One from this year:

St. John's losing to UW-EC by a gazillion was a fluke. Play that game again and St. John's remains close or wins. One result does not make it a trend. One lambasting does not make a team dominant against the other. It just happened on that day and time.


Not sure many Johnnie fans would agree with your take. They play again and SJU probably keeps it closer, but I don't think they'd win. UWEC dominated them from start to finish in every aspect of the game. They were faster. They were more physical. They were more disciplined. They executed better. And it all happened in Collegeville.

From what I read on the MIAC board, to a poster, SJU fans admitted they got dominated by a superior team. What makes you think SJU could possibly win that game in a rematch?

The Johnnie fans I know seem to be 'the sky is falling' types at times. Has to be in their Minnesota blood.

smedindy

emma17 - I do the same thing. What I see now is that North Central is a lot better than a lot of teams, and they lost on opening week a long way away from home against a decent team. But I see a team that is NOW a lot better than almost every team in the country, even with that loss.

smedindy

Quote from: 02 Warhawk on September 19, 2011, 10:02:28 AM
Because Miss College beat HSU so convincingly Saturday, I put Miss College (previously unranked) ahead of HSU in my new poll. If the game was closer I probably won't have dropped HSU so far down. I moved HSU from #8 down to #20, and slid Miss College into the polls at #19. I felt comfortable doing so b/c Miss College's only loss this year is to a scholarship-offering school.

However, I still have NCC ahead of Redlands, mostly b/c it was a close game in week 1, AND NCC was ranked #3 to begin the season. So, to me, that gap was too big to close (#3 ranked team in NCC and a non ranked team in Redlands) to put Redlands ahead of NCC in the week two's poll. If Redlands destroyed NCC, that that's a different story, then I probably wold have put NCC further down in the poll, and Redlands ahead of them (like what I did to HSU and Miss College).

I'm going to wait and see another week on Miss. College and see the Massey data. I have about 4 or 5 'bubbling under'....

sflzman

Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 19, 2011, 07:58:00 PM
Quote from: HSC85 on September 19, 2011, 02:36:49 PM
Pat,

I have no complaint about the votes that HSC is getting.  I just watch teams lose to teams that are supposed to be weaker and the penalty is not very strong.  Especially if they were already in the top 25.  If you are in the top 15 it seems to take two losses to get bounced.  My comments had nothing to do with Hampden Sydney.

Neither did mine. Not sure what I said that would make you think I was talking about anyone other than Mississippi College, which went from 0 votes to No. 23 in the country.

For me I don't jump on the bandwagon for one win. Kean wasn't in my poll last week, but they're top 15 this week after two solid wins in a row.
Be not afraid of greatness - Shakespeare