South Region playoffs

Started by Llamaguy, October 11, 2005, 02:42:00 AM

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Llamaguy

Quote from: bobgregg on October 11, 2005, 06:27:44 PM

Ralph, I don't know either, but I know this:

IF W&J runs the table to finish 9-1, the Presidents ARE getting an invitation (B or C)!

Bob,
I can give you alteast one senario where Wash & Jefferson winning out will still make it tight getting into the playoffs.


  • Salisbury beats Wesley = Salisbury (9-1) qowi = 14.50 now
  • Wesley (9-1) qowi = 11.00 now
  • Linfield finishes undefeated
  • Thiel (9-1) with head-to-head tiebreaker over W&J

With that senario W&J would then drop into the Pool C group with a current qowi=8.5 and games with Thomas More may help a little and Waynesburg is questionable if they finish above .500 . Best case W&J's qowi goes up to ~9.00.
I know it would take the stars to align, but it is possible that they lose out on a spot as a result of a weaker schedule.
"The Dali Llama"

Bridgewater Football 1980,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005 ODAC Champions!

Ralph Turner

W&J may have one factor in its favor if Hanover gets the HCAC AQ.

I believe that that qualifies as #1 in the Secondary Criteria.  I believe that that was a factor in UMHB's Pool C last year, their win over Willamette which got a Pool B bid.

Bob.Gregg

In your scenario, Llamaguy, I'm having trouble imaging seven teams chosen ahead of a W&J squad at 9-1 with one of those wins likely against the HCAC champ (convincingly) and the only loss in overtime to another tournament participant.

I still say run the table and the Presidents are in.
Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.

Ralph Turner

Bob, I think you are right.

We ASC fans are dreading the ASC "WIAC-ing" itself.  I believe that there are several ASC teams that can administer the "2nd South Region loss" in conference play, and there may be a few 1-loss teams sitting home in November.

We are talking 7 Pool C bids.  IMHO, there are no Pool B's in the North Region (Rockford?), or non-ACFC East Region.  If there is only one NWC team in the playoffs, then the South Region will be where Pool B happens.

If we Pool C teams can get by with only Linfield, the ACFC Champ, and Thiel W&J, then we are in better shape.

Llamaguy

Quote from: bobgregg on October 11, 2005, 09:34:47 PM
In your scenario, Llamaguy, I'm having trouble imaging seven teams chosen ahead of a W&J squad at 9-1 with one of those wins likely against the HCAC champ (convincingly) and the only loss in overtime to another tournament participant.

I still say run the table and the Presidents are in.

I agree that odds are in your favor for sure. I just know there are 74 teams ahead of W&J's qowi right now. I also agree you have the secondary critria covered as do we at Bridgewater with Hanover. I just had to give you a hard time, you know me. ;D

We at BC have been playing playoff games ever since falling asleep against McDaniel in the second half of the first game. Talk about "backs against the wall", we have known since game 1 that we must win out to get in, secure the Pool A spot and run with the ball in the playoffs. A 7-2 Bridgewater ain't gettin' in the playoffs as a Pool C this year. ;)
"The Dali Llama"

Bridgewater Football 1980,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005 ODAC Champions!

Bob.Gregg

Llamaguy,

I know it was a hard time you were giving me.

And you know it was a hard time I was giving all you "Pool A/C" guys.

I said last year that one day a Pool C bid was going to go to a Pool B team.  I just had no idea I'd be here lobbying hard for it to be W&J!!!
Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.

Hug

Yes at the beginning of the year the BC faithful thought that 8-1 would get us into the playoffs. Now we know it will. 

The scenerio that Llamaguy lays out for W&J can be said of HSC. 9-1 with wins over the Centennial champ JHU and only loss coming to playoff bound BC. Hypothetical of course.  I wonder who would have the better QOWI? W&J or HSC?

Josh Bowerman

#52
Bob, if W&J wins out, I think they get the fourth Pool B spot--mostly because Wesley's QOWI is about as high as it's going to get.   I think they're going to have to win out (just to maintain their QOWI) and get the Pool B from the ACFC. 

Salisbury is in worse shape for a second Pool B, because their loss is to a Montclair State team that is currently 2-3 and still has to play Rowan.  that's going to drag their QOWI down.

I mean, who else--besides W&J, assuming they win out--is going to be considered for the fourth Pool B?  I'd have a hard time believing the ACFC is going to get two in, as stated above.
"Without struggle, there is no progress."--Frederick Douglass

religion_major

Continuing on the W&J vs. HSC thought, just looking at the records and schedules for both I would give a slight edge to W&J.  The bottom teams in the PAC have managed to win a game or two so far.  The bottom of the ODAC will have one team with only one win and another that will most likely finish 0-10.  The only factor that could help HSC over W&J would be if JHU finishes 9-1 with a lone loss to HSC.  That would be a much better signature win than a win over Hanover.  That being said, judging from the recent history of the CC that is highly unlikely.  Just a little food for thought....

Ralph Turner

Josh, respectfully, the Salisbury game with Montclair is not in-region.  I don't think it will affect the primary critieria.

Josh Bowerman

#55
Well, I guess it technically could, but you are correct, Ralph--it most likely will have zero impact. 

I had forgotten that QOWI is only calculated on in-region games.  Thanks for straightening me out. 

This begs a question, though:  Based on the way the QOWI criteria are set up, does this mean that the conference games between Salisbury/Wesley and Brockport State are not counted in the QOWI?  Seems silly to not factor a conference game into the equation.....doesn't it?
"Without struggle, there is no progress."--Frederick Douglass

Llamaguy

Quote from: Josh Bowerman on October 12, 2005, 10:10:49 AM
Bob, if W&J wins out, I think they get the fourth Pool B spot--mostly because Wesley's QOWI is about as high as it's going to get.   I think they're going to have to win out (just to maintain their QOWI) and get the Pool B from the ACFC. 
Actually a quick projection of their QOWI assuming they finish (9-1) losing to Salisbury would be 10.25 at the end of the year. WJ is projected to be ~9.90. W&J's QOWI is being pulled down because they have beaten 3 teams who are (0-5) and have a 1 win Bethany on the horizon. Schedules are made years in advance, but this year it isn't helping W&J.
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Salisbury is in worse shape for a second Pool B, because their loss is to a Montclair State team that is currently 2-3 and still has to play Rowan.  that's going to drag their QOWI down.
The Montclair St. loss is an out of region loss so has no effect on their QOWI. Only in region contests factor into qowi. As for Salisbury's projected QOWI if they finish (9-1) = ~11.25.
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I mean, who else--besides W&J, assuming they win out--is going to be considered for the fourth Pool B?  I'd have a hard time believing the ACFC is going to get two in, as stated above.


  • Wesley (9-1)  qowi = 10.25
  • Salisbury(9-1) qowi= 11.25
  • W&J (9-1) qowi= 9.90

Which leaves a Pool B Field of:
Linfield
Thiel (even if they finish 9-1 have head to head over W&J
Salisbury
Wesley

That being said, W&j still probably has a good shot at a Pool C bid by seasons end if they win out. ;)
"The Dali Llama"

Bridgewater Football 1980,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005 ODAC Champions!

Llamaguy

Ralph you are quicker than I  ! ;)

And I do agree, Josh that if it gets to secondary critria then the Monclair St loss hurts their seeding and chance for home games in the playoffs.
"The Dali Llama"

Bridgewater Football 1980,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005 ODAC Champions!

Josh Bowerman

You guys posted whilst I was editing.  Any thoughts on my previous question?  Isn't Brockport St. in the East evaluative region?
"Without struggle, there is no progress."--Frederick Douglass

Llamaguy

Quote from: Josh Bowerman on October 12, 2005, 02:46:32 PM
You guys posted whilst I was editing.  Any thoughts on my previous question?  Isn't Brockport St. in the East evaluative region?

That is a good question Josh. I have the updated as of 9/23/05 d3 handbook in front of me right now. Salisbury & Wesley are listed as Pool B teams in the South. It doesn't list conference affiliation for non-automatic qualifying conferences. Brockport is not listed in the South or East so I'm not sure, but know the NCAA has the ~200mile proximity as a regional game. Not sure how that works across region lines though. I will say the update needs updating since it still has Chowan in the South and they are now D2. :o
"The Dali Llama"

Bridgewater Football 1980,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005 ODAC Champions!