NESCAC

Started by LaPaz, September 11, 2011, 05:54:52 PM

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amh63

Thanks Nescac1 for jump starting the season.  Great info/analyses!  Still depressed about the lost to the Ephs and the graduation of Spencer Noon...had been following him since his freshman year. Met his great parents in a NCAA game in Pa. ...even at basketball games!
Always amaze me how you gleem sports data wrt the conference.
Expect a battle in the upcoming season for the title...I find it hard to predict in soccer due to not always knowing how the defensive side will develope.  Do agree with your picks on the offensive side.  Expect Heo will return to his FY breakout form and be a leader/captain.

Brother Flounder

I also agree with the analysis. Amherst will be strong but not as strong as last year...but they are probably still the team to beat.  Williams will be good. Tufts should be strong with the 1-2 punch but they need more consistency. They also had a freshmen who performed very well at midfield and forward, especially when Santos missed the end of the season...looking forward to a great season.  The NESCAC is a very strong and proud conference.......

LaPaz

Since Nescac1 basically regurgitated some of my comments from the end of last season as predictions for 2013, I feel the need to also be a broken record. Some points:
1.   Aoyama is a solid solid player but if we are talking the most talented and outright most dangerous players in nescac it would have to be Santos at Tufts and Rashid at Williams. Those two can provide a much needed goal or "soccer magic" that a team needs to maybe win a big game. Rashid for example scoring very late against St. Lawrence last year in the NCAA's to tie the game which Williams ended up winning.  So when you say "best" for me natural skill and 1v1 attacking comes to mind, maybe for others different qualities make them the "best". To each his own.
2.   Your research at Top Drawer Soccer for incoming frosh is good but only coaches and SID's send that info in, so I am assuming other colleges just didn't bother.
Other than that your points are well taken.
-Amherst- they are defending champs so they are again the team to beat. They lose a ton, Noon, Sucre's, Mooney, etc. They also had a very deep bench that was hardly used last year. This could lead to l earning curves but Heo when he is interested is top 5 for sure and they have a solid back 4 and GK. Almost fell off my chair when I saw Amherst schedule WNEC as a non-league game. They must have had no one else to play that weekend or other minnows are sick of losing 8-0 to them.
-Williams-You are right Finan can be replaced by Morrell and even Morrell is maybe a bit better but one of the key reasons Williams got to 2 Final Fours in 4 years is Finan and his remarkable ability to stop PK's. That might be sorely missed late season. Ebobisse and Christman are replaceable but the loss of their leader Ratajczak could be problematic on defense. You are right they return a ton of defensive players so something to watch for. They have a decent out of league schedule, but getting a tad weaker each season.
-Tufts- You are also right they lose really nothing and have gained a year experience with all their players. Santos and Hoppenot are extremely dangerous and Nakamura is a solid MF. Definitly a NCAA team and an intriguing matchup against a very deep squad in Brandeis in early September should give a good indication and also MIT. Two good teams. Again, I think there weakness is GK behind a solid back 4. Also, rumor has it Santos and Shapiro did not see eye to eye by the end of the year and I remember him not starting a couple games. Shapiro should stay out of his way and let him work his magic.
-Conn- This is the up and comer in Nescac. Yes I know we have been saying this for a few years but this year they grabbed a Ghanaian striker and other good frosh to mix with very seasoned veterans and good players like O'Brien and Hormel. Home field advantage is solid and rumor has it they finally reseeded their field. YAY. Still they need to turn all those ties last year into wins or it won't matter.
-Midd-One of the worst Midd teams in history in 2012 is gone and in comes the best recruiting class of Nescac, still can never rely on frosh and they did graduate like 11 players so this will be an ongoing saga.
-Bowdoin- They lose a ton of solid players and a solid coach. I have no word on frosh or really the new coach. Will be back later on this one.
-Wesleyan-Nescac 1 is right they will drop off the most. They lose the most and rumor has it there was and end of year hazing issue which will result in suspensions for players. That's all I got but enough to say .500 would be a solid year. Still the toughest non-league schedule in Nescac and they have the fortune to somehow be the only team not to play any back to backs in regular season. This is small but can help.
Pick em....Trinity, Colby, Bates, Hamilton
Trinity should be competitive in every sport in Nescac as they can get most kids into the school, Colby and Bates lose their 2 best players in Meisel and Murphy and Hamilton is well Hamilton....long bus rides and 2 years without a Nescac tourney bid.

nescac1

Thanks LaPaz, you are the expert on NESCAC soccer so I must have internalized some of your past commentary.  But my views on Amherst and Williams in particular are also based on my own observations from late in the season. 

Does Williams have any potential impact players to watch coming in?  Ratajczak is a big loss in the center of the defense but I think ultimately the Ephs will be fine on that end with plenty of guys to choose from.  Should be much stronger on the outside with much more experience and tons of size there (made some errors last year as they were young and shuffling different combinations around before Westling and Grunman emerged as a starting duo during the NCAA's, they should be improved as they settle into those roles).  And Lima is a strong, experienced physical presence who could be an all-league guy this year, Burbank-Crump struggled with injuries last year but did start as a frosh and could be a factor, and Conder also returns. 

I think the bigger question for Williams is who will replace Ebobisse's playmaking to help out Rashid and Usher, Williams was most potent when those three worked together.  One potential candidate, Michael Madding, is apparently out for the year.  Muralles had some good moments and probably needs to step up.  But they need a playmaing midfielder to emerge for sure. 

Interesting re: Conn College as a team to watch.  Conn has really struggled of late vs. peers in virtually every sport and could use a team to rally behind ... 

LaPaz

To answer your question, from what I have heard Williams has a decent class coming in. A good sized GK, couple midfields, one supposedly creative midfielder from Tenn area and 2 very solid CB's....one from Manhattan SC and another a 6'5 Cb from the Albany area who I believe Williams grabbed from R.P.I. As we kno Russo doesn't count on frosh and will not need the keep er until 2014 but does lose significant size in the back. This kid should compete with Ritter and Luke Peirce for playing time alongside Lima at CB. Burband Crump is a soild LB and Seitz and solid Russo type get forward wingback and Lima as you say a physical presence, however they are lacking size back there and with 40% of goals if not more in Nescac scored off set pieces this poses a big question mark. They do have plenty of depth on defense.

nescac1

Thanks LaPaz, sounds like a reasonably good complement to last year's class, which had a bit more star power. 

letsGOswans!

Heo is not returning this year.
Amherst, Williams, and Tufts will be real strong this year. The beauty of this league is that any team can win against any team if it's their day. I also agree with LaPaz on Conn. If they can win and not tie, they should do real well.

Anyone want to post their predictions for top 4 as of now?

dacac

1. Williams
2. Tufts
3. Amherst
4. Bowdoin, Midd, or Conn (My heart says Conn so I will listen)

LaPaz

WOW....is this true that HEO is not returning to Amherst?....that is a huge loss if confirmed, that means they lose there front 4 to graduation.  That is a huge loss.......thanks for the info, you beat me to it....If confirmed, Amherst might have trouble finding goals early in the season, but they have plenty of depth and might have to rely on midfields like Rico to score more.

Other tidbits I have learned.

1.Midd cannot use frosh in their first game at Amherst, I think a school rule or some frosh orientation that is interfering.  Again, Midd has the best freshman class coming in and they lost 11 players from a horrible 2012 team. Will they start some JV guys?  that boxscore will be an interesting one.
2. Rashid for Williams has a hip flexor injury and could be out for the first 3-4 weeks of season. This is not very good news for Williams as they will struggle to find goals early on. Players like Muralles and so forth will have to step up. They have a decent schedule to start the year so they may get away with his loss for a bit.

Brother Flounder

1. Tufts (surprise pick but the last 2 incoming classes 2011 & 2012 were very strong-don't know about 2013 incoming class)
2. Amherst (lost many players but probably still the team to beat anyway-don't know if their kick the ball long game will be as effective without noon and some big players gone)
3. Williams (hurt with Rashid out first 4 weeks-battled Tufts in 2 great games last year)
4. Conn (sleeper)

Brother Flounder

LaPaz, I just read your earlier post about Shapiro and Santos at Tufts.  I heard that Santos was sick or had mono at the end of last year, and that is why they brought a freshman center mid up to forward.  Can anyone confirm this?

PaulNewman

I'm curious about the hazing and possible suspensions comment with Wesleyan.  Are we talking suspensions for a couple of players or 10?  And for 1 game or a handful of games?  All that said, unless the suspensions really hurt, I believe Wesleyan is being downgraded too much and will surprise on the upside.  Wheeler IMHO possibly best coach in the league.

letsGOswans!

@Flounders

I recall hearing that as well. I don't know why santos would have sat for any other reason...

and @ LaPaz, i heard about Heo from my friend's son who plays soccer at Amherst.

nescac1

Pre-season rankings are not worth much as they typically correspond very closely to the end-of-season rankings, but for what it's worth, Williams is ranked third and Amherst fourth heading into the season:

http://www.nscaatv.com/rankings/2062/NCAADivisionIII/women/Central/PreseasonPoll

But if accurate that Heo is not returning, and if Rashid misses a slew of games, obviously both will have trouble living up to those lofty rankings. 

amh63

Heo will be missed, if it turns out that he left the team.  Saw him play what was his breakout game as a freshman...in the Wesleyan game in Middletown.  Heo left Amherst to serve his two year military obligation in Korea ...blogging about his experience on-line.  His return year was last season, I believe.   Hope all is well...loves Amherst.