FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

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79jaybird

The NC/WC game has the makings of an instant classic.   Two powerful teams duking it out with only 1 winner.  I wish I could be there to see it. 
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USee

Quote from: emma17 on October 21, 2014, 12:21:25 PM
The NCC - Wheaton game is very intriguing- thanks for the excellent stats Usee.

As an outsider, I tend to think Wheaton has a good chance this year because they have had better than average success in controlling NCC's running game.  Forcing NCC to pass, this year in particular, seems to be the best way to limit the NCC offense.  Am I off base on this?

I don't think anyone has disrupted their running game in recent memory. The key then is limiting big plays (good tackling) and shortening the game. The stat I forgot to add to my analysis is NCC leads the league in offense not just with fewer plays than every other team, while defending more plays than anyone else, but they have the shortest time of possession average of any team in the league at 26.35. Wheaton is #2 at 32.14. NCC only rushed for 163 yds @UWSP because they only ran 55 plays to UWSP's 77. NCC had the ball for only 20.56 minutes. And they turned it over 4x. NCC is going to get their yards. If you can shorten the game and get them to turn it over, that's the recipe. There is no doubt you stack the box and force throws. The problem is #9 is one of the better receivers in D3 and you can't leave him single covered. I suspect the Thunder will play a lot of 3-deep zone, which allows them to put 7-8 in the box and keep everything in front of them. 

USee

Wheaton's defense has been very consistent. They don't give up big plays and they keep people out of the end zone. They have done that by keeping their defense pretty simple. It's a big change from a year ago when Rod Sandberg was DCoordinator. Rod used a lot of zero coverage to bring extra people in the run game and liked to blitz a fair amount. Wheaton was notorious for giving up big plays. This year they blitz very infrequently, play a lot of zone and keep the offense in front of them. That requires good tackling and speed on defense. When the Thunder struggle, they aren't running to the ball/breaking on the ball and/or are missing tackles. Augies long TD was on the back of at least 4 missed tackles in the first 10 yds. They have done a good job with that for the most part this year.

The problem is, you can play zone and tackle people when your personnel are better. I am not so sure that's the case against NCC.

Green Jello Shots

Quote from: CardinalAlum on October 21, 2014, 08:35:58 AM
Quote from: Green Jello Shots on October 20, 2014, 10:16:46 PM

IWU70 - So you're blaming the Titan defense for the loss to Augie??? The score was 7-2! This wasn't a baseball or a soccer game. The Titan D held Augustana to 1 touchdown and scored 2 points of their own. IWU may have had a lot of problems Saturday, but defense definitely wasn't one of them! All the Titan offense had to do was score 6 measly points and IWU would have won.
The Titan D is 2nd in the CCIW in scoring defense (despite the IWU punt team giving up 21 points this season) and 2nd in the CCIW in sacks. The IWU Defense has been vulnerable at times this season, but overall has done a solid job. They have given up a combined 14 total points over the last 2 games, 7 of which came on a blocked punt that got taken to the house. They shouldn't be the cause of your disappointment with IWU.


What about the Carthage game?

What about the Carthage game? I was addressing a post that seemed to imply the IWU defense was somehow responsible for the Augie loss. Secondly, in my post I said "The IWU Defense has been vulnerable at times this season". Third, regarding the Carthage game that you reference, the IWU D still only gave up 20 points, despite 4  turnovers by the offense. Finally, those 20 points are still 3 points less than the 23 points the Cardinal D gave up against that same Carthage team.

CardinalAlum

Quote from: Green Jello Shots on October 21, 2014, 02:11:07 PM
Quote from: CardinalAlum on October 21, 2014, 08:35:58 AM
Quote from: Green Jello Shots on October 20, 2014, 10:16:46 PM

IWU70 - So you're blaming the Titan defense for the loss to Augie??? The score was 7-2! This wasn't a baseball or a soccer game. The Titan D held Augustana to 1 touchdown and scored 2 points of their own. IWU may have had a lot of problems Saturday, but defense definitely wasn't one of them! All the Titan offense had to do was score 6 measly points and IWU would have won.
The Titan D is 2nd in the CCIW in scoring defense (despite the IWU punt team giving up 21 points this season) and 2nd in the CCIW in sacks. The IWU Defense has been vulnerable at times this season, but overall has done a solid job. They have given up a combined 14 total points over the last 2 games, 7 of which came on a blocked punt that got taken to the house. They shouldn't be the cause of your disappointment with IWU.


What about the Carthage game?

What about the Carthage game? I was addressing a post that seemed to imply the IWU defense was somehow responsible for the Augie loss. Secondly, in my post I said "The IWU Defense has been vulnerable at times this season". Third, regarding the Carthage game that you reference, the IWU D still only gave up 20 points, despite 4  turnovers by the offense. Finally, those 20 points are still 3 points less than the 23 points the Cardinal D gave up against that same Carthage team.

It's a team game.  You talk about the offense not being able to score "6 measly points", well then maybe the defense has to pick up the offense when they're obviously hurting.   I bring up the Carthage game because there's a case where the defense could've stepped up and shut out Carthage.  Do you really want to make the comparison of the 23 points NCC gave up vs the 20 IWU gave up?   It starts with a W...three letters.   We got one and so did Carthage.   That's the difference.

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Gregory Sager

Quote from: USee on October 21, 2014, 01:06:45 AM
When taking a look at the big game this week there are a lot of stats that jump out at you such as:

North Central:
#1 Scoring offense 44.0 ppg
#1 Rushing offense 225.3 yds pg
#1 Rushing defense 95.5 yds pg, 2.8 ypc
#1 Total offense 435.7 yds pg, 6.7 yds per play
#1 Turnover margin +9 (19 takeaways vs 10 giveaways)
#1 Red Zone offense 27-29 (18 TD's, 9 FG)

Wheaton counters with:
#1 Scoring Defense  12.8 ppg
#1 First Downs 138
#1 Sacks 18
#1 3rd down conversions 47%
#1 Opponent 3rd down conversions 28%
#1 Red Zone defense 7-13 (7 TD's, 0 FG)

But to really understand where the outcome of this game will be decided you have to dig deeper to understand each team.  As an example, North Central is a running team (62%) that likes to make big plays, primarily in the passing game (38%). How do we know that? They have scored 28 TD's so far this year. 15 of those 28 came on plays of over 20 yds. In fact, on their other 13 TD's, 10 of them included plays on the TD drive of over 20 yds. In 6 games this year, NCC has 35 plays of 20+ yds for an average of almost 6x a game. By contrast, Wheaton has scored 21 TD's this year and 5 of them happened on plays of 20+ yds and they have just 18 plays through 6 games of 20+ yds. 

To further support the profile of NCC they are just 4th in the league in total defense but they have defended 463 plays, the most of any CCIW team. Offensively, they are the #1 team in total offense at 436 yds per game despite the fact they have run the fewest plays of any team in the league at 391 (the next closest team is IWU at 410). The most yards and points on the least amount of plays. They run, run run and then hit you with a big play. They get big plays in the running game too with their speed and size.

These numbers indicate a level of quantifiable advantage over Wheaton and every other CCIW team that leads to a 13.5 spread for a game like this. So how do you beat NCC? One of two ways: 1-you limit their plays of 20+ yds. In 2011 Wabash held NCC to 3 plays of 20+ yds (two of them in the beginning of the game) and none of them scoring plays. 2-you turn them over. In their loss at UWSP, NCC got their 400 yds but threw 4 INT. In 2012 @UW Lacrosse the Cards held them to 200 yds but turned it over 6x in a loss. Also in 2012 Wheaton took it to NCC. North Central had 442 yds of offense but fumbled 6x, losing 4 of them. Later, against Linfield, NCC actually outgained the Cats 416-331 but turned it over 7x in a season ending loss. In the NCC v Wheaton game in 2013, the Cardinals won 35-16 and racked up their usual 400+ yds. The difference from 2012? 1 turnover in 2013.

Wheaton's offense on the other hand has run the 2nd most plays of any offense and averages 5.3 yds per play. Their running game averages just 3.7 yds per play. To beat NCC their defense will have to limit big plays (20+ yds). They are adept at that, only giving up 10 plays this year of 20+ yds (7 passes 3 runs). In addition they will have to do one of the following two things: Win the turnover battle, or pass the ball for 250+ yds. The teams that beat NCC generally don't do it running the football (UMU excepted). They throw it. 2011 Wabash (311 pass, 92 run), 2012 Wheaton (280 pass, 100 rush), 2012 Linfield (305 pass, 26 rush), 2014 UWSP (330 Pass, 46 rush). 

There is a lot to digest here but it seems pretty clear to me. Wheaton is going to have to take the ball away and limit the big play on Saturday night to have any chance. Wheaton has been good at limiting big plays this year and average at taking it away. I don't see the scenario where the Thunder pass the ball for 300 yds.

Good, informative post, Obi-Wan.

Quote from: Kovo on October 21, 2014, 08:34:35 AM
Quote from: Langhorst_Ghost on October 20, 2014, 09:50:46 PM
Okay Sager, you win...you always do (in a will ferrell as robert goulet voice)   :'(

What do I know anyways? You're the professional, continue to control the narrative on your board.


Its news to me!   I didn't know that this was Greg's board. 

Greg--what did you do with Pat?  I thought he controlled the website.  This is all so confusing.  Am I still permitted to post all of my unabashed unashamed NCC propaganda or does Gregory have to approve it?

My people will contact you. Make sure that the proper forms are filled out in triplicate before you hit the "Post" button.

Quote from: Son of Tailgater on October 20, 2014, 11:16:37 PMAll four of the games really could go either way and I wouldn't be surprised.

That's an excellent point. Even in a season in which the league is clearly down, we'll still more than likely get to see competitive football in four different stadia this weekend. They may be a notch or two down from CCIW-normal in terms of how well they'll be played, but all four contests will probably still be worth watching in terms of having reasonably close scores.

"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

kiko

#31056
Quote from: USee on October 21, 2014, 01:06:45 AM
When taking a look at the big game this week there are a lot of stats that jump out at you such as:

North Central:
#1 Scoring offense 44.0 ppg
#1 Rushing offense 225.3 yds pg
#1 Rushing defense 95.5 yds pg, 2.8 ypc
#1 Total offense 435.7 yds pg, 6.7 yds per play
#1 Turnover margin +9 (19 takeaways vs 10 giveaways)
#1 Red Zone offense 27-29 (18 TD's, 9 FG)

Wheaton counters with:
#1 Scoring Defense  12.8 ppg
#1 First Downs 138
#1 Sacks 18
#1 3rd down conversions 47%
#1 Opponent 3rd down conversions 28%
#1 Red Zone defense 7-13 (7 TD's, 0 FG)

But to really understand where the outcome of this game will be decided you have to dig deeper to understand each team.  As an example, North Central is a running team (62%) that likes to make big plays, primarily in the passing game (38%). How do we know that? They have scored 28 TD's so far this year. 15 of those 28 came on plays of over 20 yds. In fact, on their other 13 TD's, 10 of them included plays on the TD drive of over 20 yds. In 6 games this year, NCC has 35 plays of 20+ yds for an average of almost 6x a game. By contrast, Wheaton has scored 21 TD's this year and 5 of them happened on plays of 20+ yds and they have just 18 plays through 6 games of 20+ yds. 

To further support the profile of NCC they are just 4th in the league in total defense but they have defended 463 plays, the most of any CCIW team. Offensively, they are the #1 team in total offense at 436 yds per game despite the fact they have run the fewest plays of any team in the league at 391 (the next closest team is IWU at 410). The most yards and points on the least amount of plays. They run, run run and then hit you with a big play. They get big plays in the running game too with their speed and size.

These numbers indicate a level of quantifiable advantage over Wheaton and every other CCIW team that leads to a 13.5 spread for a game like this. So how do you beat NCC? One of two ways: 1-you limit their plays of 20+ yds. In 2011 Wabash held NCC to 3 plays of 20+ yds (two of them in the beginning of the game) and none of them scoring plays. 2-you turn them over. In their loss at UWSP, NCC got their 400 yds but threw 4 INT. In 2012 @UW Lacrosse the Cards held them to 200 yds but turned it over 6x in a loss. Also in 2012 Wheaton took it to NCC. North Central had 442 yds of offense but fumbled 6x, losing 4 of them. Later, against Linfield, NCC actually outgained the Cats 416-331 but turned it over 7x in a season ending loss. In the NCC v Wheaton game in 2013, the Cardinals won 35-16 and racked up their usual 400+ yds. The difference from 2012? 1 turnover in 2013.

Wheaton's offense on the other hand has run the 2nd most plays of any offense and averages 5.3 yds per play. Their running game averages just 3.7 yds per play. To beat NCC their defense will have to limit big plays (20+ yds). They are adept at that, only giving up 10 plays this year of 20+ yds (7 passes 3 runs). In addition they will have to do one of the following two things: Win the turnover battle, or pass the ball for 250+ yds. The teams that beat NCC generally don't do it running the football (UMU excepted). They throw it. 2011 Wabash (311 pass, 92 run), 2012 Wheaton (280 pass, 100 rush), 2012 Linfield (305 pass, 26 rush), 2014 UWSP (330 Pass, 46 rush). 

There is a lot to digest here but it seems pretty clear to me. Wheaton is going to have to take the ball away and limit the big play on Saturday night to have any chance. Wheaton has been good at limiting big plays this year and average at taking it away. I don't see the scenario where the Thunder pass the ball for 300 yds.

I agree with pretty much all of this.  The stuff in red is the big key for the Cardinals.  In many of their recent losses, they have self-destructed with turnovers, and have been unable to get off the field defensively because of an inability to stop the pass.  Generally speaking, when they take care of these two things, everything else takes care of itself.  I can't and won't speak for others, but it's also why I am so concerned with the decision-making of the Cards' QBs this year.

robertgoulet

Quote from: kiko on October 21, 2014, 07:22:37 PM
Quote from: USee on October 21, 2014, 01:06:45 AM
When taking a look at the big game this week there are a lot of stats that jump out at you such as:

North Central:
#1 Scoring offense 44.0 ppg
#1 Rushing offense 225.3 yds pg
#1 Rushing defense 95.5 yds pg, 2.8 ypc
#1 Total offense 435.7 yds pg, 6.7 yds per play
#1 Turnover margin +9 (19 takeaways vs 10 giveaways)
#1 Red Zone offense 27-29 (18 TD's, 9 FG)

Wheaton counters with:
#1 Scoring Defense  12.8 ppg
#1 First Downs 138
#1 Sacks 18
#1 3rd down conversions 47%
#1 Opponent 3rd down conversions 28%
#1 Red Zone defense 7-13 (7 TD's, 0 FG)

But to really understand where the outcome of this game will be decided you have to dig deeper to understand each team.  As an example, North Central is a running team (62%) that likes to make big plays, primarily in the passing game (38%). How do we know that? They have scored 28 TD's so far this year. 15 of those 28 came on plays of over 20 yds. In fact, on their other 13 TD's, 10 of them included plays on the TD drive of over 20 yds. In 6 games this year, NCC has 35 plays of 20+ yds for an average of almost 6x a game. By contrast, Wheaton has scored 21 TD's this year and 5 of them happened on plays of 20+ yds and they have just 18 plays through 6 games of 20+ yds. 

To further support the profile of NCC they are just 4th in the league in total defense but they have defended 463 plays, the most of any CCIW team. Offensively, they are the #1 team in total offense at 436 yds per game despite the fact they have run the fewest plays of any team in the league at 391 (the next closest team is IWU at 410). The most yards and points on the least amount of plays. They run, run run and then hit you with a big play. They get big plays in the running game too with their speed and size.

These numbers indicate a level of quantifiable advantage over Wheaton and every other CCIW team that leads to a 13.5 spread for a game like this. So how do you beat NCC? One of two ways: 1-you limit their plays of 20+ yds. In 2011 Wabash held NCC to 3 plays of 20+ yds (two of them in the beginning of the game) and none of them scoring plays. 2-you turn them over. In their loss at UWSP, NCC got their 400 yds but threw 4 INT. In 2012 @UW Lacrosse the Cards held them to 200 yds but turned it over 6x in a loss. Also in 2012 Wheaton took it to NCC. North Central had 442 yds of offense but fumbled 6x, losing 4 of them. Later, against Linfield, NCC actually outgained the Cats 416-331 but turned it over 7x in a season ending loss. In the NCC v Wheaton game in 2013, the Cardinals won 35-16 and racked up their usual 400+ yds. The difference from 2012? 1 turnover in 2013.

Wheaton's offense on the other hand has run the 2nd most plays of any offense and averages 5.3 yds per play. Their running game averages just 3.7 yds per play. To beat NCC their defense will have to limit big plays (20+ yds). They are adept at that, only giving up 10 plays this year of 20+ yds (7 passes 3 runs). In addition they will have to do one of the following two things: Win the turnover battle, or pass the ball for 250+ yds. The teams that beat NCC generally don't do it running the football (UMU excepted). They throw it. 2011 Wabash (311 pass, 92 run), 2012 Wheaton (280 pass, 100 rush), 2012 Linfield (305 pass, 26 rush), 2014 UWSP (330 Pass, 46 rush). 

There is a lot to digest here but it seems pretty clear to me. Wheaton is going to have to take the ball away and limit the big play on Saturday night to have any chance. Wheaton has been good at limiting big plays this year and average at taking it away. I don't see the scenario where the Thunder pass the ball for 300 yds.

I agree with pretty much all of this.  The stuff in red is the big key for the Cardinals.  In many of their recent losses, they have self-destructed with turnovers, and have been unable to get off the field defensively because of an inability to stop the pass.  Generally speaking, when they take care of these two things, everything else takes care of itself. I can't and won't speak for others, but it's also why I am so concerned with the decision-making of the Cards' QBs this year.

I'm not as concerned with the decision-making as I am with the inability to complete passes to wide open receivers. Can't miss those guys against good teams.
You win! You always do!

iwu70

Green Jello, not sure you saw the IWU-AC game, but there were lots of problems with the IWU D Saturday.  No containment of the AC QB, no backside staying home, poor tackling many times.  And, IWU D couldn't get AC O off the field.  It was bad.  Your stats may tell one story from a stats point of view, but the eye test tells another story.  D made no big plays, other than the block FG attempt, which was given right back with an IWU INT on the very next play  I stand by what I said earlier.  Anyway, I hope the Titans D improves, and that Warner returns.  Surely the IWU O has to do something about getting some kind of running game going, which basically hasn't been there, hasn't been effective at all since the very first game of the season.  5-5 still looks about right to me.  Disappointing, to say the least.

IWU70

thunderdog

ThunderNation,

It's time to show up @ McCully Stadium and cheer your butts off!  Don't sit, stand and cheer for the orange-and-blue.  We have a conference championship, playoff birth, and a little brass bell hanging in the balance... let's show up and support our team for this MASSIVE game.

Can't wait for Saturday night, if you can't tell.

Last year's "home crowd advantage" was anything but... we need to change that.

USee

As a follow up to the potential playoff and Pool C considerations for the loser of this weekends matchup, Pool C could only have 5 spots this year (instead of 6) which would make a 9-1 Wheaton team almost a non-bid lock. I know that may surprise many people but this weekend really is a win or go home game for the Thunder in reality. I just don't see 9-1 getting them in this year with a weak SOS and only 5 spots.


D3gridiron

Quote from: USee on October 22, 2014, 11:56:31 AM
As a follow up to the potential playoff and Pool C considerations for the loser of this weekends matchup, Pool C could only have 5 spots this year (instead of 6) which would make a 9-1 Wheaton team almost a non-bid lock. I know that may surprise many people but this weekend really is a win or go home game for the Thunder in reality. I just don't see 9-1 getting them in this year with a weak SOS and only 5 spots.

Agree this is win or go home for both Wheaton and North Central.

Mr. Ypsi

On the other hand, since the tourney expanded to 32 teams, has a 9-1 CCIW team EVER failed to make pool C?

02 Warhawk

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 22, 2014, 12:51:27 PM
On the other hand, since the tourney expanded to 32 teams, has a 9-1 CCIW team EVER failed to make pool C?

Unfortunately, haven't the Pool C bids been on a steady decline over the years? Thanks the to shifting around of conferences, Pool B bids, etc..

USee

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 22, 2014, 12:51:27 PM
On the other hand, since the tourney expanded to 32 teams, has a 9-1 CCIW team EVER failed to make pool C?

No, Which is why I am preparing us for the possibility this year. It's actually more of a probability at this point since a 9-1 Wheaton would have a pathetic SOS due to the poor non conference teams we played. Our SOS is currently 202nd out of 246 D3 teams