MBB: Northwest Conference

Started by The Show, March 06, 2005, 08:40:16 PM

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A Buc Forever

Quote from: Gregory Sager on March 11, 2020, 10:54:11 AM
Quote from: BluesBrother on March 10, 2020, 03:42:00 PM
It's also nice to see SCIAC advancing after three consecutive years of getting knocked out in the second round vs Whitman. I know these conferences aren't as deep as others, but the top end programs are absolutely national contenders

History has not demonstrated that to be true, especially for the SCIAC -- and keep in mind that the SCIAC has been part of D3 since the late '70s. No SCIAC team has ever reached the Final Four, and only the 2017 Whitman team has gotten that far from the NWC. The list of SCIAC and NWC teams that have reached the Elite Eight is not extensive, either:

1981 Whittier
2002 Lewis & Clark
2003 Occidental
2006 Puget Sound
2011 Whitworth
2017 Whitman
2018 Whitman

It would seem that the West Coast teams have made strides in the new millennium, seeing as how they've made six of the 20 Elite Eights played since Y2K. But their performance once they've reached that level has been dismal. The five teams listed above that have reached the Elite Eight but gone no further since 2000 each lost their Elite Eight game by double digits, and the average margin of defeat in those six games was 15 points.

No doubt about it, Whitman has been very solid over the past four seasons. But the 2017 Whitman team distorted what has been the actual record of NWC teams over the past two decades -- and the SCIAC's legacy is in fact far more dismal than the NWC's in the big dance.

As I have said on this string before, single elimination tournaments are a poor way to judge teams.  A team that has a 90% chance of winning every game against the team they are playing against, will win a 6 game tournament 54% of the time.  Add in the fact that when you get to the 3rd and 4th rounds, the West Coast teams are playing in the home gyms of good teams, there is very little chance to get to the Final 4.  I was at the 2011 Whitworth game against Wooster.  First of all, Wooster and WW had been the two teams that had been ranked #1 that year for the greatest amount of time and they were meeting in the Elite 8 game. They were equivalent to #1 seeds. They should have not played this round. Second, unbelievable homer job. That's not sour grapes, it was bad. To be expected to some degree, but still bad. The coach of the team Whitworth beat in the Sweet Sixteen said WW was the best DIII team he'd ever seen.  Some of the recent Whitman teams would rank up there with the WW 2011 team.  These teams are as good as anyone in the country, but a single elimination tournament with the road blocks the west coast teams face is not a fair way to judge the conference.

Gregory Sager

Quote from: A Buc Forever on March 12, 2020, 05:37:53 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on March 11, 2020, 10:54:11 AM
Quote from: BluesBrother on March 10, 2020, 03:42:00 PM
It's also nice to see SCIAC advancing after three consecutive years of getting knocked out in the second round vs Whitman. I know these conferences aren't as deep as others, but the top end programs are absolutely national contenders

History has not demonstrated that to be true, especially for the SCIAC -- and keep in mind that the SCIAC has been part of D3 since the late '70s. No SCIAC team has ever reached the Final Four, and only the 2017 Whitman team has gotten that far from the NWC. The list of SCIAC and NWC teams that have reached the Elite Eight is not extensive, either:

1981 Whittier
2002 Lewis & Clark
2003 Occidental
2006 Puget Sound
2011 Whitworth
2017 Whitman
2018 Whitman

It would seem that the West Coast teams have made strides in the new millennium, seeing as how they've made six of the 20 Elite Eights played since Y2K. But their performance once they've reached that level has been dismal. The five teams listed above that have reached the Elite Eight but gone no further since 2000 each lost their Elite Eight game by double digits, and the average margin of defeat in those six games was 15 points.

No doubt about it, Whitman has been very solid over the past four seasons. But the 2017 Whitman team distorted what has been the actual record of NWC teams over the past two decades -- and the SCIAC's legacy is in fact far more dismal than the NWC's in the big dance.

As I have said on this string before, single elimination tournaments are a poor way to judge teams.

Not if you're talking about single-elimination tournaments over an extended period of time. The NWC has been participating in the D3 tourney for two decades now. The SCIAC has been at this for four decades. That's more than enough body of work to justify using the tourney as a gauge.

Quote from: A Buc Forever on March 12, 2020, 05:37:53 PMA team that has a 90% chance of winning every game against the team they are playing against, will win a 6 game tournament 54% of the time.

This isn't about winning the tournament, mind you. The original point that Blues Brother made was:

Quote from: BluesBrother on March 10, 2020, 03:42:00 PM
It's also nice to see SCIAC advancing after three consecutive years of getting knocked out in the second round vs Whitman. I know these conferences aren't as deep as others, but the top end programs are absolutely national contenders

"National contenders" is a significantly lower threshold than national champions ... and the two leagues' top-end programs still haven't measured up to "absolutely" status in the national-contenders category over their respective periods of time.

Quote from: A Buc Forever on March 12, 2020, 05:37:53 PMAdd in the fact that when you get to the 3rd and 4th rounds, the West Coast teams are playing in the home gyms of good teams,

Oh, come on. When you get to the sectional stage, everybody's a good team.

Quote from: A Buc Forever on March 12, 2020, 05:37:53 PMthere is very little chance to get to the Final 4.

Well, then, if there's very little chance to get to the Final Four, then you're not really an "absolute national contender," are you? After all, if you're not able to contend, how can you be a contender? ;)

Quote from: A Buc Forever on March 12, 2020, 05:37:53 PMI was at the 2011 Whitworth game against Wooster.  First of all, Wooster and WW had been the two teams that had been ranked #1 that year for the greatest amount of time and they were meeting in the Elite 8 game. They were equivalent to #1 seeds. They should have not played this round.

Yeah? Well, welcome to our world here in the midwest, where every year it's the CCIW, the WIAC, the MIAC, and frequently Wash U as well duking it out as early as the second round (i.e., the first weekend). And that's to say nothing of up-and-comers like Nebraska Wesleyan and Loras joining the fray in recent years. Our part of the country is where the phrase "Bracket of Death" became a thing in D3 men's basketball. So, sorry if we don't have much patience for the woes you suffered from having to play one tough sectional semifinal game nine years ago.

Quote from: A Buc Forever on March 12, 2020, 05:37:53 PMSecond, unbelievable homer job.

::)

Quote from: A Buc Forever on March 12, 2020, 05:37:53 PMThat's not sour grapes, it was bad. To be expected to some degree, but still bad. The coach of the team Whitworth beat in the Sweet Sixteen said WW was the best DIII team he'd ever seen.  Some of the recent Whitman teams would rank up there with the WW 2011 team.  These teams are as good as anyone in the country, but a single elimination tournament with the road blocks the west coast teams face is not a fair way to judge the conference.

Look, we all know that the teams in D3's geographic islands get a raw deal with the travel. But at the end of the day, are you going to pack that excuse in your travel bag and take it with you when you board the plane so that it's handy right where you need it when you lose, or are you going to suck it up and prove that you're an "absolute national contender" on at least a semi-regular basis? Because the record does not back up Blues Brother's statement. And that's all I'm saying.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

BluesBrother

Quote from: Gregory Sager on March 13, 2020, 12:09:26 AM
Look, we all know that the teams in D3's geographic islands get a raw deal with the travel. But at the end of the day, are you going to pack that excuse in your travel bag and take it with you when you board the plane so that it's handy right where you need it when you lose, or are you going to suck it up and prove that you're an "absolute national contender" on at least a semi-regular basis? Because the record does not back up Blues Brother's statement. And that's all I'm saying.

I agree about the travel. It's reality and something that can be dealt with.

But there's nothing you can do about a bracket that pits all three west coast teams against each other...only one can advance. It's still not worth complaining about, but I also think it's wrong to say the best teams in SCIAC and NWC aren't national contenders these days (note the present tense...). And that's one of many reasons why it's a shame this tournament got cut short -- it would have been fun to see if Whitworth and Pomona could have made deeper runs.

Gregory Sager

In the present tense it makes more sense for the NWC, because the last few Whitman teams have definitely proven themselves on the big stage to be among the premier teams in D3. But the jury's still out on the SCIAC.

And I agree, that's one of the reasons why it's such a shame that the four concluding rounds of the tourney were canceled. Every tourney is a chance for the NWC to finally climb to the top, or for the SCIAC to really prove itself by cracking the Final Four for the first time ever.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

AlltheKINGSmen99

Anyone know about Bridgeland accepting the Redlands job?

BluesBrother

Yikes...hope that's not true, but I think the Bridgelands have ties to SoCal so that could make sense.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)


It's widely assumed (although not confirmed) that Bridgeland was on the shortlist for the WashU job.  He's definitely pushed the Whitman athletic department to provide the resources he believes the team needs to compete for national titles.  With no inside information, I think it's safe to assume he'd be open to other opportunities.  I'm not sure Redlands is the direction I'd expect him to go, though.  That doesn't feel like career advancement to me.  I don't know how he feels about Amherst's opening, but I suspect, if Bridgeland leaves Walla Walla, it would be more for a program like that than the one at Redlands.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

BluesBrother

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on April 15, 2020, 04:30:27 PM
I don't know how he feels about Amherst's opening, but I suspect, if Bridgeland leaves Walla Walla, it would be more for a program like that than the one at Redlands.

For what it's worth I'd be shocked if Bridgeland went to a place like Amherst. I think Redlands would be a better fit in a few ways.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on April 15, 2020, 04:30:27 PM

It's widely assumed (although not confirmed) that Bridgeland was on the shortlist for the WashU job.  He's definitely pushed the Whitman athletic department to provide the resources he believes the team needs to compete for national titles.  With no inside information, I think it's safe to assume he'd be open to other opportunities.  I'm not sure Redlands is the direction I'd expect him to go, though.  That doesn't feel like career advancement to me.  I don't know how he feels about Amherst's opening, but I suspect, if Bridgeland leaves Walla Walla, it would be more for a program like that than the one at Redlands.

Nevermind.

https://www.goredlands.com/sports/mbkb/2019-20/releases/20200415no2d4i
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere


Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

Quote from: BluesBrother on April 15, 2020, 05:41:43 PM
Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on April 15, 2020, 05:21:27 PM
https://www.goredlands.com/sports/mbkb/2019-20/releases/20200415no2d4i

Well shoot. Not a good time to be looking for a new head coach.

Good chance Whitman promotes the assistant there?  I've heard nothing but great things from lots of people about him.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

BluesBrother

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on April 15, 2020, 06:20:43 PM
Quote from: BluesBrother on April 15, 2020, 05:41:43 PM
Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on April 15, 2020, 05:21:27 PM
https://www.goredlands.com/sports/mbkb/2019-20/releases/20200415no2d4i

Well shoot. Not a good time to be looking for a new head coach.

Good chance Whitman promotes the assistant there?  I've heard nothing but great things from lots of people about him.

Well, the longtime assistant, Matt Airy, left a year ago to become the head coach at Aurora. He probably would have been an obvious choice. The other assistants are great, but don't have quite the same longevity/experience. I'd bet on a national search.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)


My bad,  i was thinking of Jablonski, at Whitworth who did actually takeover. Wrong Whit and a year behind.  Embarsssing. I'm blaming quarantine brain.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat

What Bridgeland did at Whitman is nothing short of a miracle. I grew up in Walla Walla and in the mid-80's they had a decent run with Coach Mastin's son and a couple of other studs who put on a good show.  Coach Mastin's style was unique to say the least but with talent and buy-in they had good results.  Aside from that stretch and maybe another relatively decent few years in the 90's Whitman basketball and team sports in general were terrible. 

The blame was always placed on the Board of Trustees hiring presidents who simply didn't value athletics.  Part of this was the culture of the school which was as far from a jock mentality as possible in the NW.  It will be interesting to see who Whitman hires to replace him.  I wonder if they will go with a person who has less of a force of personality. 

The move to Redlands is a surprise to me as that is a lateral transfer to a much more expensive part of the country.  Granted, my hometown is pretty isolated and it takes a certain person to want to stay there.  It will likely be easier to recruit players to Redlands as they don't have the academic standards of Whitman, have thousands of recruits within 3 hours (whereas Walla Walla had thousands of people within 3 hours!), maybe a lower cost, likely a better cultural fit for hoopers, and a lot less travel time during the season.


Gregory Sager

#7319
Quote from: Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat on April 17, 2020, 04:20:37 PMThe move to Redlands is a surprise to me as that is a lateral transfer to a much more expensive part of the country.  Granted, my hometown is pretty isolated and it takes a certain person to want to stay there.  It will likely be easier to recruit players to Redlands as they don't have the academic standards of Whitman, have thousands of recruits within 3 hours (whereas Walla Walla had thousands of people within 3 hours!), maybe a lower cost, likely a better cultural fit for hoopers, and a lot less travel time during the season.

I would say that it is a strategic move by Eric Bridgeland to better place himself in a position to finally win the big one.

You mentioned the pitfalls of coaching at Whitman -- the remoteness of Walla Walla, WA; the cultural fit; etc. One thing that Whitman has in basketball terms that Redlands doesn't is a stronger conference, but it's certainly possible to get to the promised land (Fort Wayne, IN) from a league that doesn't have national muscle; Benedictine and Nebraska Wesleyan have proved that in recent years (and in NWU's case, it's actually lifted up the rep of its league as a whole). Granted, I don't know all of the ins and outs of Redlands with regard to the school's financial health, its campus culture, its facilities, etc. But from what I know, the pluses of Redlands seem to outweigh the minuses by far, and that's why I don't really think it's a lateral move. Rather, I think it's a step forward for a coach who wants so badly to snip a piece of net after the last game of the D3 basketball season and who has the recruiting chops to make it happen. For years I've thought that, sooner or later, some SCIAC coach would figure out how to assemble a top-notch D3 team in an area of the country where there are 25 million people within 200 miles of campus, especially since greater L.A. and the Inland Empire are so underserved in terms of small-college basketball schools. College basketball is all about recruiting, and if there's one thing that Eric Bridgeland has proved it's that he can recruit like nobody's business.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell