Pool C -- 2012

Started by wally_wabash, August 31, 2012, 11:19:36 AM

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wally_wabash

Never too early to worry about this, right?   :)

Just for fun (and maybe, just maybe, because I have an unhealthy obsession with Pool C selection), I leafed through the projections in Kickoff '12 (get it if you haven't yet...my guess is that most Pool C nuts have it) just to see what the selection pools might look like.  I'm not going to spoil Kickoff content by laying out what I've found here, but a couple of interesting things stick out...

- Pool C will be very, very tough.  Some really really good teams from really really good AQ leagues may well be sitting at home...
- ...because Pool B got a lot stronger this year.  I believe there will be just one Pool B selection (more next year I think), which is going to bump 1-2 really strong (as in slam dunk strong) candidates  and maybe two more very good candidates to Pool C.  Mark it down: there's going to be an independent stealing an at-large bid from a Pool A league runner up for the first time this year. 

Should clarify...I believe there is only one Pool B selection available, which isn't clear from above.  I believe there will likely be more than one Pool B-eligible teams that get selected. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

smedindy

Win your league! Yes, I know that's tough for folks who play Purples, but they're not totally 100% invincible. And aside from winning your league, root like heck for everyone in your league to schedule up and win.

So, for me, whilst the Hiram and Kenyon games may not be on anyone's radar at all, they all add something into the calculations for a "C" for an NCAC team. The OAC, with only one non-conference game, needs to be sure their teams play good teams and beat them.

wally_wabash

Quote from: smedindy on August 31, 2012, 01:48:23 PM
So, for me, whilst the Hiram and Kenyon games may not be on anyone's radar at all, they all add something into the calculations for a "C" for an NCAC team. The OAC, with only one non-conference game, needs to be sure their teams play good teams and beat them.

They do count...a big ol' drain-o on the OWP variable.  Although starting next year, when Kenyon or Hiram lose, some other common NCAC opponent wins, so it's a wash...and a wash will actually help NCAC teams in the SOS metric in most years.  The same round robin wash probably hurts OAC teams in most years, but that's the cost of doing the round robin business. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

K-Mack

Wally, been thinking the same thing. There's Wesley, then Trinity, Centre and B-SC stacked up against the C pool, plus Huntingdon ... and they all play each other or similar good teams, giving them the OWP/OOWP numbers to justify their selection.

We'll watch closely, but should be interesting the closer we get.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

smedindy

I think this is a year where we just don't pencil in "Wesley" for a "B" and that definitely the "C" pool will be infiltrated with "B" even more so than Case did last year.

This year, more than any, we need to have clear accountability from the committee because the smoke-filled rooms could get very thick.

Ralph Turner

Poll B fans need for UMHB to beat Wesley this week.

Pool B is really strong this year. Fortunately there is enough head-to-head and with common opponents, that I think that we will have a fair test for the bid.

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: Ralph Turner on September 09, 2012, 05:32:55 PM
Poll B fans need for UMHB to beat Wesley this week.

Pool B is really strong this year. Fortunately there is enough head-to-head and with common opponents, that I think that we will have a fair test for the bid.

And it would not surprise me at all if one or two pool B teams get pool C bids this year - a pretty rare occurrence!

smedindy

I think Carnegie Mellon or Birmingham Southern, even with later stumbles against the 'right' teams, could definitely get into the "C" queue if a "B" doesn't happen for them.

K-Mack

Quote from: smedindy on September 07, 2012, 07:00:36 PM
This year, more than any, we need to have clear accountability from the committee because the smoke-filled rooms could get very thick.

I have always wanted to sit in on the process. Not to name names or out anybody, but to see and explain how the sausage is made, so to speak.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

hickory_cornhusker

Quote from: K-Mack on October 02, 2012, 09:59:23 PM
Quote from: smedindy on September 07, 2012, 07:00:36 PM
This year, more than any, we need to have clear accountability from the committee because the smoke-filled rooms could get very thick.

I have always wanted to sit in on the process. Not to name names or out anybody, but to see and explain how the sausage is made, so to speak.

I'd like to even have the NCAA do what they have done in the past with the Division I basketball tournament where they invite some media members in a couple of weeks before the selection date and make the media go through the process. See exactly what the selection committee will see when they make their selections and bracket the teams.

wally_wabash

Most teams are almost halfway through the schedule.  Why not gaze into the crystal ball and see what Pool C starts to look like?  I need a hobby. 

Here's what I'm guessing projecting for the Pool A's:

   League   
Team   
   ASC   
   UMHB   
   CC   
   Johns Hopkins   
   CCIW   
   IWU   
   ECFC   
   Gallaudet   
   E8   
   SJF   
   HCAC   
   Franklin   
   IIAC   
   Coe   
   LL   
   Hobart   
   MIAA   
   Albion   
   MAC   
   Widener   
   MWC   
   Illinois College   
   MIAC   
   St. Thomas   
   NEFC   
   Salve Regina   
   NJAC   
   Rowan   
   NCAC   
   Wittenberg   
   NAC   
   Concordia-Chicago   
   NWC   
   Linfield   
   OAC   
   Mount Union   
   ODAC   
   Randolph-Macon   
   PAC   
   Waynesburg   
   SCIAC   
   Cal Lutheran   
   UMAC   
   St. Scholastica   
   USAC   
   Christopher Newport   
   WIAC   
   UW Whitewater   

Pool B: At this time, I'm selecting Wesley in spite of their loss to UMHB.  It helps that the rest of the pool is eating itself, but the biggest reason why Wesley is the pick here is because their SOS number is overwhelmingly better than the next best candidate (Birmingham-Southern).  B-SC @ Wesley this Saturday is obviously a huge game. 

Pool C: So I yanked out all of the 0 or 1 loss teams left and gave them a quick and dirty ranking, broken down by region.  Then went through the process of selecting seven teams in the same manner as the committee does (one team per region considered at one time).  My selections, in order of selection are...
Whitworth
Bethel
UW-Oshkosh
Ithaca
Otterbein
Birmingham-Southern
Carnegie Mellon

A couple of things to note...I'm not trying to predict future results (mostly).  This is how I would select teams given the current resumés...with one caveat.  After Oshkosh came off the board from the West, Ithaca was the next pick and then the next three were going to be Concorida-Moorhead, St. Olaf, and Willamette.  I've already got one MIAC team and one NWC team in and all of those teams have gaves against each other forthcoming...which is to say, the MIAC and NWC aren't going to realistically have 3-4 teams being considered for the postseason.  So I did take some futures liberty there and did not consider Concordia-Moorhead, St. Olaf, and Willamette. 

I'm doing this so early because I'm curious to see how this all evolves over the course of the season.  We usually don't worry about this until regional rankings start getting out in week 9-ish.  Thought I'd share it here for the other selection junkies out there. 

BTW, including current league leaders and teams with 0 or 1 loss, I'm figuring that there are roughly 50 or so teams in play for those 7 Pool C spots as of today. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wally_wabash

Should also clarify on the Pool A's before I catch a beating from my fellow Wabash fans...my Pool A picks are based on current standings and where there is not a clear leader (in the case of multiple undefeated teams most likely), I picked the one that I thought was best.  So, no, I'm not predicting or projecting that Wittenberg will beat Wabash on Saturday.  What's in the table reflects current standings and then a touch of my own subjectivity in selecting Wittenberg instead of Ohio Wesleyan or Allegheny.  And the same scenario holds for every other conference where there are ties atop the league standings, obviously. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

wally_wabash

Here's what I came up with after the games of 10/6, same process as last week:

Pool A's, changes from last week in bold:

   League   
  Team   
   ASC   
   UMHB   
   CC   
   Johns Hopkins   
   CCIW   
   IWU   
   ECFC   
   Gallaudet   
   E8   
   Salisbury   
   HCAC   
   Franklin   
   IIAC   
   Coe   
   LL   
   Hobart   
   MIAA   
   Adrian   
   MAC   
   Widener   
   MWC   
   Lake Forest   
   MIAC   
   St. Thomas   
   NEFC   
   Salve Regina   
   NJAC   
   Rowan   
   NCAC   
   Ohio Wesleyan   
   NAC   
   Concordia-Chicago   
   NWC   
   Linfield   
   OAC   
   Mount Union   
   ODAC   
   Randolph-Macon   
   PAC   
   Waynesburg   
   SCIAC   
   Cal Lutheran   
   UMAC   
   Northwestern   
   USAC   
   Christopher Newport   
   WIAC   
   UW Whitewater   

Pool B: Wesley won the big game against B-SC, but doesn't quite lock up the Pool B for them.  There is the matter of a game at Huntingdon in a few weeks.  A win there, and Pool B is closed.  A loss, and then the committee will have to sort out the Wesley/B-SC/Huntingdon results.  The criteria could favor Huntingdon there if the Hawks can get that win. 

Pool C: My seven picks, in order are...
Willamette
Bethel
Otterbein
UW-Oshkosh
Wabash
SJF
Birmingham-Southern

Whitworth's SOS is insane and would have been the selection after Oshkosh, but I'm applying the same fudge factor when it comes to multiple Pool C's from the same conference that I did last week.  Sorry, Pirates.  Last week, Ithaca was an easy choice, but a loss to Alfred who lost to RPI shoves the Bombers way down in the East region pecking order.  The emergence of SJF into Pool C also doesn't help. 

So basically, Willamette beat Whitworth and took their spot...Ithaca out, SJF in...and Wabash replaces Carnegie Mellon (CMU actually didn't get to the table this week as their SOS took a nosedive this week). 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

d-train

Don't worry too much about Whitworth until you have results from this Sat. (at Linfield).  They most likely will pick up conference loss number two and be done in terms of the playoffs.  You only need to consider them in predictions if they pull the upset.

smedindy

CMU could still get a "B" based on how the Wesley / BSC / Huntingdon troika settles out. Their SOS could improve if the UAA takes care of the NCAC in their remaining games, OWU keeps winning and Gheny snaps out of it.