Pool C -- 2014

Started by wally_wabash, October 14, 2014, 04:07:07 PM

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smedindy

#15
A two-loss WIAC team fighting with a one-loss runner-up from the MIAC, NWC and what would happen if Wartburg stumbled once in the IIAC? Hmmmm....

NOTE: I really don't think Wartburg will stumble, and I don't know if the MIAC can have a one-loss runner up outside of C-M unless Bethel gets upset and C-M gets past St. Thomas AND Gustavus.

USee

Wally,

Are you saying a 9-1 Wheaton would not make the Pool C field based on your current projections? That would be unprecedented. But I understand the SOS and lack of non-conference strength is not helping.

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: USee on October 15, 2014, 08:03:42 PM
Wally,

Are you saying a 9-1 Wheaton would not make the Pool C field based on your current projections? That would be unprecedented. But I understand the SOS and lack of non-conference strength is not helping.

But USee, Wheaton will not finish 9-1, after both NCC and IWU (with a recovered Warner throwing for 500 yards) beat them. ;D

wally_wabash

Quote from: USee on October 15, 2014, 08:03:42 PM
Wally,

Are you saying a 9-1 Wheaton would not make the Pool C field based on your current projections? That would be unprecedented. But I understand the SOS and lack of non-conference strength is not helping.

Right now, we've got Wheaton as the third at-large team in the North and we learned last year "you're not gonna get three from the same region". 

Now, Wheaton does have some advantages in the schedule (non of which are related to SOS, unfortunately).  Both of the teams that the North region voters have placed ahead of Wheaton, should they both end as runners up in their leagues, will have lost AFTER Wheaton hypothetically loses to North Central.  When you lose isn't a criteria per se, but we've followed the rankings enough to know that it absolutely matters and teams that wind up with one loss generally cycle around each other based on who lost last.  JCU will lose in Week 11.  Witt (or Wabash) play in Week 10.  Wheaton's Brass Bell game is Week 8.

And, you're right- it would be weird for Wheaton or any 9-1 CCIW runner up to not get invited.  Wheaton's name and Wheaton's league carry weight (also not criteria, but I've seen enough now to know that that stuff matters whether people openly admit it or not).  So reputation also works in Wheaton's favor.  But right now Wheaton's SOS ranks 220 (out of 231).  That will come up some as they go through league play, but not as much as usual because the CCIW didn't bank as many September wins as they usually do.  And Kalamazoo and Eau Claire probably won't win four games between them.  I think when you add it all up, Wheaton is going to look an awful lot like Thomas More from 2013, and Thomas More wasn't really in the conversation last year (poor SOS, no quality wins). 

Really I think Wheaton getting in or not depends on whether or not they cycle to the front of the North's at-large queue after JCU and whoever winds up 2nd in the NCAC lose.  If Wheaton is first in line, they'll get in.  If not, it could be a difficult sell. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

bashgiant

Wally,
How about some scenarios for NCAC(DePauw, Wabash, and Witt).
I really appreciate all the time and effort you put into D3boards.com!
GO BASH!!!!

wally_wabash

Quote from: bashgiant on October 16, 2014, 08:15:02 AM
Wally,
How about some scenarios for NCAC(DePauw, Wabash, and Witt).
I really appreciate all the time and effort you put into D3boards.com!
GO BASH!!!!

We could have a long winded breakdown of remaining games and about 100 different what-ifs that work around other hypothetical results around the region, but what it all distills down to is don't lose twice.  Provided they don't lose any other games, I think the Witt/Wabash loser has a pretty good chance, but the timing of that game might push the loser to the back of the line in the North region and things get really dicey (happened to Wabash last year). 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

USee

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 15, 2014, 08:47:58 PM
Quote from: USee on October 15, 2014, 08:03:42 PM
Wally,

Are you saying a 9-1 Wheaton would not make the Pool C field based on your current projections? That would be unprecedented. But I understand the SOS and lack of non-conference strength is not helping.

Right now, we've got Wheaton as the third at-large team in the North and we learned last year "you're not gonna get three from the same region". 

Now, Wheaton does have some advantages in the schedule (non of which are related to SOS, unfortunately).  Both of the teams that the North region voters have placed ahead of Wheaton, should they both end as runners up in their leagues, will have lost AFTER Wheaton hypothetically loses to North Central.  When you lose isn't a criteria per se, but we've followed the rankings enough to know that it absolutely matters and teams that wind up with one loss generally cycle around each other based on who lost last.  JCU will lose in Week 11.  Witt (or Wabash) play in Week 10.  Wheaton's Brass Bell game is Week 8.

And, you're right- it would be weird for Wheaton or any 9-1 CCIW runner up to not get invited.  Wheaton's name and Wheaton's league carry weight (also not criteria, but I've seen enough now to know that that stuff matters whether people openly admit it or not).  So reputation also works in Wheaton's favor.  But right now Wheaton's SOS ranks 220 (out of 231).  That will come up some as they go through league play, but not as much as usual because the CCIW didn't bank as many September wins as they usually do.  And Kalamazoo and Eau Claire probably won't win four games between them.  I think when you add it all up, Wheaton is going to look an awful lot like Thomas More from 2013, and Thomas More wasn't really in the conversation last year (poor SOS, no quality wins). 

Really I think Wheaton getting in or not depends on whether or not they cycle to the front of the North's at-large queue after JCU and whoever winds up 2nd in the NCAC lose.  If Wheaton is first in line, they'll get in.  If not, it could be a difficult sell.

Fascinating. I can't disagree with any of your analysis. I can't see JCU getting moved down below Wheaton and Witt/Wabash loser so my guess is it comes down to those teams and 1-How did they lose to the AQ and 2-If it's Witt, does their loss to Butler affect them (even though it shouldn't). I think if Wabash beats Witt in week 10 that Wheaton likely gets the #2 spot behind JCU in the North but if Witt wins I don't see Wheaton moving ahead of Wabash. But the unseen subjectivity of the committee will certainly be at play as you indicate.

I have long known that Mike Swider schedules non-conference teams knowing that 9-1 gets him in. I have never liked that but the reality is at Wheaton he just doesn't have the horses to play UWW and other tough non-conference teams and then survive the CCIW slate. His best DB blew his knee at Wabash this year. But a 9-1 Wheaton that doesn't get in the playoffs will force some re-thinking of that strategy. Stay tuned....

wally_wabash

Quote from: USee on October 16, 2014, 11:23:55 AM
Fascinating. I can't disagree with any of your analysis. I can't see JCU getting moved down below Wheaton and Witt/Wabash loser so my guess is it comes down to those teams and 1-How did they lose to the AQ and 2-If it's Witt, does their loss to Butler affect them (even though it shouldn't). I think if Wabash beats Witt in week 10 that Wheaton likely gets the #2 spot behind JCU in the North but if Witt wins I don't see Wheaton moving ahead of Wabash. But the unseen subjectivity of the committee will certainly be at play as you indicate.

One other thing to watch for in the North region is DePauw.  DePauw is a wild card.  If they get to 9-1 and are on an 8 game win streak and don't get the NCAC AQ out of the deal, they could leapfrog everybody but JCU.  And who knows, maybe even over JCU depending on how much the North RAC loves Wabash between weeks 10 and 11. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

USee

If Wabash beats Witt and then loses to Depauw, who finishes 9-1, that would be a quagmire. You would have Depauw, Wabash, Witt, and Wheaton at 9-1. Who wins the NCAC AQ?

smedindy

We really don't know. If they all have lost to each other, it may be road record in conference or longest winning streak. Both of those data points have been in tie-breakers in the past.

02 Warhawk

#25
Quote from: USee on October 16, 2014, 12:19:27 PM
If Wabash beats Witt and then loses to Depauw, who finishes 9-1, that would be a quagmire. You would have Depauw, Wabash, Witt, and Wheaton at 9-1. Who wins the NCAC AQ?

Awhile back on these boards, I think I remember reading that some conferences go with whichever team has the longest conference championship drought....if all things are equal.

USee

There are written guidelines for the CCIW in a 3 way tie. Anyone can find them on the CCIW conference website. NCAC has no such animal. From reading the discussion here and on the NCAC board in the past, no one knows if there is anything official or if they will just throw 3 envelopes down the stairs and the one that flies farthest is the winner. This is knowable information right now. Surprising we are going on over a year with no clarity on this.

wally_wabash

Quote from: USee on October 16, 2014, 01:12:18 PM
There are written guidelines for the CCIW in a 3 way tie. Anyone can find them on the CCIW conference website. NCAC has no such animal. From reading the discussion here and on the NCAC board in the past, no one knows if there is anything official or if they will just throw 3 envelopes down the stairs and the one that flies farthest is the winner. This is knowable information right now. Surprising we are going on over a year with no clarity on this.

I swear I promised I wasn't going to let myself get into this until after Week 10 this year.  But alas, here I am. 

Yes, it should be on the website, but it isn't.  I don't think the league office is actively hiding it, I just don't think it's of any particular importance for them to post it anywhere.  It's been published before by journos who have asked about it.  I tracked down an article from 2010 (not exactly current, but I think there was also an article in 2012 when the possibility of a Wabash/Witt/OWU tie existed and things were the same).  Unless there have been changes, it goes like this:

1. H2Hs - Tie, everybody has beaten everybody else.
2. Results vs. other NCAC opponents in descending order- Tie since the three tied would have all beaten everybody beneath them in the league.
3. Fewest conference away losses - This is where you'll figure out who wins.  If Wabash beats Witt and DePauw beats Wabash, DePauw is scratched because of their loss at Witt, Wabash and Witt are undefeated on the road and you'll go back to the top to break the Wabash/Witt tie, which in this case breaks in favor of Wabash. 

Now, that's if the presidents or coaches or whoever comes up with this policy haven't completely changed it up.  The NCAC has since gone to a full round robin, which eliminates the need for tiebreaking based on the lunacy of the preseason power ranking (which would have been next on the list), but I don't think it necessarily mandates any other changes to the tiebreak policy. 

Another interesting scenario develops if Wooster beats Witt (in Wooster), Witt beats Wabash (in Springfield), and Wabash has already beaten Wooster (in C'ville).  Those three all have one loss on the road and push the third tiebreak.  The next tiebreak (if we assume the power ranking thing is gone) is the longest running conference winning streak- which would break in favor of Wooster. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

USee

Well if you want a tangled web how about this: I  found this years North Regional committee:

Erik Raeburn, co-chair Wabash North Coast
Chris Martin, co-chair CCIW CCIW
Patrick Etherton Millikin CCIW
Mike Leonard Franklin Michigan Intercol.
Jack Hatem Denison North Coast
Mark Walsh Aurora Northern Athletics
Mike Leonard Franklin Heartland Collegiate
John Snell Baldwin Wallace OAC

The National Committee Members from the North Region are the first two listed.

So the "Unseen subjective" criteria these guys will use to sort the top three Pool C's for the North Region are up to this unbiased, unaffiliated few.  8-)

USee

And in case you are wondering (and to post it on the record for reference in a few weeks when this board gets hot) the National Committee is:

Current members of the committee are:
East Region east region
Jack McKiernan
Associate Director of Athletics
Kean University

John Marzka
Head Football Coach
Albright College
north region north region

Chris Martin
Commissioner
College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

Erik Raeburn
Head Football Coach
Wabash College
south region south region

Jack Leipheimer
Director of Athletics
Thiel College

Loren Dawson
Head Football Coach
Austin College
west region west region

Rodney Sandberg
Head Football Coach
Whitworth University

Duey Naatz, chair
Director of Athletics
University of Wisconsin, Stout

It should be noted that Rod Sandberg was Wheaton's DCoordinator last year.