BB: D3 MLB Draft projections, picks and free-agent signings

Started by AlleyCat, May 29, 2008, 10:12:17 AM

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infielddad

Matre has at least 2 clear and distinct, and somewhat unique issues.
The first is the injury and not pitching this year.
Clearly, the team picking him feels he has upside and probably has a sense of where he is in the recovery.  One might expect the team to require this pitcher to sign a release of all liability for this  injury.  It also seems likely the team, if it signed him, will give him a bit of a longer look. On the other hand, if they were  to start him in short season in 2011 and he was not able to perform, he would be facing a release. Our son played with a kid who had a similar situation. Was a low 90's lefty who had TJ his junior year in college.
Was picked in the 9th round, and they started him in 2004 in Short Season. He did not get his velocity back.
Kept him until the next Spring and when he still struggled, he was released.
The other obvious issue for Matre is age. He is now 22. If he does not sign and returns to college, he would be 23 by the time of the 2011 draft.
That does not mean he would not get picked but he would not get a long look, either. Immediate success would likely need to be shown.
It is possible the drafting team may view him as a higher than 39th rounder and offer more money than we might expect. If he were offered 39th round money, i.e., something from $100 to $1,000, that would make my answer for me.
If he were offered more based on where they project if he recovers fully, that could change the thought process a lot.

CrashDavisD3

#361
A 39th round there is no money. The decision is will he have a better and more enjoyable experience playing another year of college or not....For a Senior the decision is easy. Keep playing as long as you can by playing pro ball.

Everyone really puts too much on this DREAM to play professional baseball. It depends on each invidual situation.

If you really are that good to play you will get a chance..If not stay in school get your degree and enjoy college baseball.

Gerrit Cole UCLA RHP turned down 1st round draft money to go play at UCLA.

This week he gets to play and pitch in the CWS. If he stays healthy and and has nother outstanding year he will be a high draft choice next year with 3 years of college ball. He gets the best of both worlds College and Pro..

I have seen too many players passing up their years in college baseball only to be released in 1 year playing pro ball. Many regret their decisions and wished they would have stayed.

For some it is the right decision to sign and play pro ball but for many it is not...

Rookie ball is a real grind. Long bus trips, little money, away from friends and family, lousy food, hotels and fields.  You really must love the game and have a drive to play everyday to make it work....
This... is a simple game. You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.  "There are three types of baseball players: those who make things happen, those who watch it happen, and those who wonder what happened."
Crash Davis Bio - http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/crash0908.html

infielddad

Quote from: CrashDavisD3 on June 15, 2010, 01:10:19 PM
A 39th round there is no money.

Crash,
That is not always accurate. It depends on the team, how they value the player and why he dropped in the draft.
If the player is valued as a 39th rounder, he will get a bonus of that type, little to nothing.
If, due to injury, signing ability or some other issues, the player's value is higher than the 39th round and the team wants to take a run at signing him, they will pay far more.
Brett Wallace is one illustration but there are 100's of others. He was a potential 1st rounder our of HS who was committed to ASU. Drafted in the 42nd round by Toronto, he was offered well over $1,000,000 and turned it down.
I am not saying that is true for this draft pick and I am not saying it is not.
I agree with you that players need to "really love the game" to persevere and succeed in Milb.  However, I believe most DIII players really do love the game since they are playing by choice.
The life in Milb certainly was not at all a stress for our son, other than the "frustration" of playing behind guys drafted higher than he was and draft placing being, for awhile, the sole criterion for who has their name written in to the line up.
Once he got a chance and proved he belonged, the living conditions, meal money, bus rides, travel, long days, etc were  distractions, but  welcome ones, since he knew his name would be in the line up at 7pm for each game.
There is a great satisfaction from a baseball competitive perspective, especially for DIII players, in knowing you can play, compete and succeed against those who MLB views as the "best."
I fully agree with you that the challenges and rewards of Milb are  different than those that come from DIII competition.
While they are different, having success in Milb can be no less rewarding than playing a senior year.
If a DIII player has accomplished most everything they can in college, are getting an adequate bonus that include the MLB scholarship plan, and are drafted by an organization where they will get a legitimate shot, signing is a viable option.
If the player has more to prove/gain in college, is getting a 39th round bonus offer, is not with the right organization for getting his chance, etc, then signing with MLB needs to be done with the realism their career could indeed be over with only a very few innings pitched or AB's and them feeling they never got a chance.

CrashDavisD3

Quote from: infielddad on June 15, 2010, 01:47:19 PM
Quote from: CrashDavisD3 on June 15, 2010, 01:10:19 PM
A 39th round there is no money.

Crash,
That is not always accurate. It depends on the team, how they value the player and why he dropped in the draft.
If the player is valued as a 39th rounder, he will get a bonus of that type, little to nothing.
If, due to injury, signing ability or some other issues, the player's value is higher than the 39th round and the team wants to take a run at signing him, they will pay far more.
Brett Wallace is one illustration but there are 100's of others. He was a potential 1st rounder our of HS who was committed to ASU. Drafted in the 42nd round by Toronto, he was offered well over $1,000,000 and turned it down.
I am not saying that is true for this draft pick and I am not saying it is not.
I agree with you that players need to "really love the game" to persevere and succeed in Milb.  However, I believe most DIII players really do love the game since they are playing by choice.
The life in Milb certainly was not at all a stress for our son, other than the "frustration" of playing behind guys drafted higher than he was and draft placing being, for awhile, the sole criterion for who has their name written in to the line up.
Once he got a chance and proved he belonged, the living conditions, meal money, bus rides, travel, long days, etc were  distractions, but  welcome ones, since he knew his name would be in the line up at 7pm for each game.
There is a great satisfaction from a baseball competitive perspective, especially for DIII players, in knowing you can play, compete and succeed against those who MLB views as the "best."
I fully agree with you that the challenges and rewards of Milb are  different than those that come from DIII competition.
While they are different, having success in Milb can be no less rewarding than playing a senior year.
If a DIII player has accomplished most everything they can in college, are getting an adequate bonus that include the MLB scholarship plan, and are drafted by an organization where they will get a legitimate shot, signing is a viable option.
If the player has more to prove/gain in college, is getting a 39th round bonus offer, is not with the right organization for getting his chance, etc, then signing with MLB needs to be done with the realism their career could indeed be over with only a very few innings pitched or AB's and them feeling they never got a chance.

Thanks for your feedback and personal insight..As you said each player is a unique situation and their are always exceptions. It just has to be a real well thought out decision before you give up your remaining years of college baseball.

It is really only impacts very very few players in DIII that have to make this decision before their senior year.

Most players are thrilled just to be drafted and jump at the opportunity to sign and play professional baseball. To all play baseball as long as you can....Some day it will end...too soon for most...
This... is a simple game. You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.  "There are three types of baseball players: those who make things happen, those who watch it happen, and those who wonder what happened."
Crash Davis Bio - http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/crash0908.html

infielddad

Crash,
I could not agree with you more. Very good thoughts and summary!
To me, the important aspect is for every player to play as long as their skills permit and to try and go out on their terms.
For most, in fact almost everyone in Milb, they don't go out on their terms. The end can be sudden. The end can be a complete shock for them and every teammate who watches it happen.

Gramps

OshDude, I'd like to submit someone who has been under the radar for the last 4 years.
He is JASON LASH, the starting SS for Heidelberg since his Freshman season.
Here are his stats and Honors earned.

Year          Avg  Gm  Ab   R   H   2B  3B Hr  Tb  Rbi Bb  So 
2007-08  F .425  50  174  46  74  11   2   2   95   47  14   8
2008-09  S .341  46  182  56  62  11   5   6  101  47  30   9
2009-10  J .405  50  195  51  79  25   3   6  128  55  26   9
2010-11  S .369  49  179  46  66  20  0    3   95  38  24  10
Totals        .385  195 730 199 281 67 10 17 419 187 70  36
ATHLETIC HONORS
ABCA All-American 2nd Team-2010  3rd Team-2011
ABCA/Rawlings Gold Glove Team 2011
ABCA Miid-East Region 1st Team 2008-10-11  3rd Team 2009
ABCA Miid-East Region All Tournament 2008-2010
Ohio Athletic Conference (OAC) 1st Team 2008-2009-2010-2011
Ohio Athletic Conference (OAC) All Tournament 2008-09-10
ACADEMIC HONORS
ESPN the Magazine All District 4 1st Team 2010-11 2d Team-09
Ohio Athletic Conference (OAC) 1st Team 2009-2010-2011

infielddad

OshDude,
I would add Kyle Felix of Trinity, Tx. to your list.
He has proven his ability with wood by being an All Star in the NECBL. His power numbers and average this year with BBCOR also are awfully impressive.
I don't know if he can throw well enough to be drafted as a catcher.

OshDude

Have Felix or Lash been in contact with scouts this season? I could see Felix going on Day 2. Anyone have other names and maybe their level of scout contact? Some guys are surprises, but it's nice to have some expectations.

Mr. Ypsi

Living 400 miles from Bloomington (and having no inside knowlege contacts), I have no idea of his interest or scout contacts - but what about Jason Pankau, who has dominated the CCIW for two years, and dominated the CWS last year?

infielddad

Felix has been in contact with scouts over the last 2 seasons.
He is not listed on Draft Tracker, however.
BTW, to help your list, Kean has 3 players posted on Draft Tracker.
In addition to Russo, Ken Gregory and Nick Nolan are listed so their names have been submitted to MLB.

OshDude

Quote from: infielddad on May 31, 2011, 07:41:32 PM
Felix has been in contact with scouts over the last 2 seasons.
He is not listed on Draft Tracker, however.
BTW, to help your list, Kean has 3 players posted on Draft Tracker.
In addition to Russo, Ken Gregory and Nick Nolan are listed so their names have been submitted to MLB.
Thanks. I still have not seen the Draft Tracker. That would be much easier.

infielddad

Here is the link I found which I hope will help you and others:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2011/drafttracker.jsp

I am not sure how up to date it might be.  There is a local DI kid who is getting a lot of late season interest, even though he pitched less than 15 innings this year. Over the past 3-4 weeks, he got to 94mph on some guns and has scouts telling him "1st 10 rounds."
He isn't listed.

OshDude

The draft begins next week. Who are this year's prospects? I'll get it started with the players listed on the MLB draft tracker and those I've heard with draft buzz. Thanks, infielddad.
Mike Russo, Kean
Ken Gregory, Kean
Nick Nolan, Kean
Ben Hughes, St. Olaf
Bryan Henry, Keystone
Blaine O'Brien, Keystone
Esteban Meletiche, Keystone
Cody Koback, UW-Stevens Point
Scott Williams, UW-Stevens Point
Phil Schreiber, UW Oshkosh
Greg Van Horn, Wooster
Greg Van Sickler, Shenandoah
David Colvin, Pomona-Pitzer
Jerry Coleman, Clarkson
Tucker Healy, Ithaca
Steve Dennison, Wheaton (Ill.)
Curtis Arsi, Rowan
Jules Roussel, Millsaps
Josh Stidham, Wooster
Zach Rafferty, Anna Maria
Travis Otto, Illinois Wesleyan (who is a golfer for IWU as far as I can tell)
Cory Vogt, Keene State

BigPoppa

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on May 31, 2011, 07:37:04 PM
Living 400 miles from Bloomington (and having no inside knowlege contacts), I have no idea of his interest or scout contacts - but what about Jason Pankau, who has dominated the CCIW for two years, and dominated the CWS last year?

Someone will roll the dice on Pankau. If he is not drafted, I'd expect him to sign as a free-agent soon afterwards.
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

cubs

I have a pretty reliable source that has reported that Koback could go anywhere between the 5th-10th rounds.  While I am not disputing it, does anyone know the last time a D3 Position Player weent int he Top 10 Rounds?
2008-09 and 2012-13 WIAC Fantasy League Champion

2008-09 WIAC Pick'Em Tri-Champion