Pool C -- 2014

Started by wally_wabash, October 14, 2014, 04:07:07 PM

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wally_wabash

Quote from: hazzben on October 27, 2014, 02:09:11 PM
Which brings up another question. Do we know what the criteria is this year regarding RRO...is it once ranked always ranked or not?

From the pre-championship manual:

QuoteResults versus regionally ranked Division III teams as established by the rankings at the time of selection.
Conference postseason contests are included;

So the rankings that actually help decide things are only the very last rankings, which are conveniently secret. 
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bashbrother

Kind of "we'll tell you all the of criteria... well except a few of them"
Why should you go for it on 4th down?

"To overcome the disappointment of not making it on third down." -- Washington State Coach Mike Leach

jknezek

Quote from: bashbrother on October 27, 2014, 02:26:15 PM
Kind of "we'll tell you all the of criteria... well except a few of them"

Let me help by expanding a bit. "We'll tell you all the criteria, but we won't tell you how we applied the criteria at the only time it really mattered."

hazzben

Quote from: jknezek on October 27, 2014, 03:01:48 PM
Quote from: bashbrother on October 27, 2014, 02:26:15 PM
Kind of "we'll tell you all the of criteria... well except a few of them"

Let me help by expanding a bit. "We'll tell you all the criteria, but we won't tell you how we applied the criteria at the only time it really mattered."

I think the shorthand for what you're describing is this: NCAA

smedindy

Just ink in Wabash, Witt, NC, Wheaton, Mt. Union, Chicago and JCU as sure-to-be-ranked North Teams. I may write Franklin in heavy pencil as well. As for the other two spots...gah.

I'd say Elmhurst would be ranked NOW, if you ignore that Loras loss. They may drop out quickly facing Wheaton and North Central as two of their last three.

Each MIAA team has a horrible loss (Trine lost to Manchester, Adrian to Wisconsin Lutheran) or could play themselves out as easily as they did (Hope doesn't have a bad loss, but has two of them and faces Adrian and Trine the next two weeks).

DePauw may sneak in but they could easily by 5-5 by season's end (not probable, but it could happen).

MSJ may be viable but that Millsaps loss continues to look bad.

The leading NACC team is probably the Wisconsin flavor of Concorida. Maybe at 8-2 with wins over Trine and a CCIW team (North Park, but still...) they could be ranked?

Otterbein or Heidelberg may be a default candidate, maybe?

emma17

Thinking about St John's only loss coming while the top two QB's were injured.
Out of curiosity and understanding the rules don't allow for this.
If UWW, Wesley or Mt (I use these schools because their QB's proved their abilities on the national stage last year) lost their QB for one big game- and ended up losing that game, do you feel the selection committee would take the injury into consideration?
Perhaps it would be a moot point as they'd be 9-1 w decent SOS, but maybe they consider the injury when doing the seedings.


smedindy

Beat Bethel, for one. Solves most of the issues since I think a 1-loss MIAC team makes it. As for seeding, you're probably under three teams anyway in the West area depending on RR's and all.  Who has the tiebreaker if there's a three-way cluster between SJ, Bethel and C-M?

A close Bethel loss and a loss by C-M to St. Thomas may test that "2 losses but their QB was hurt" theory if the West RR's are nice to you. If C-M wins out and you lose to Bethel then it may be curtains.

We'll need to watch the RR's for this, for sure. Who knows what they have up their sleeve?

wally_wabash

Do we have anything on the SAA/MASCAC automatic qualifier status yet?  I'm getting ready to do a rundown here.  Unless I hear otherwise, I'm sticking with SAA does qualify automatically, MASCAC does not. 
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USee

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 29, 2014, 09:53:31 AM
Do we have anything on the SAA/MASCAC automatic qualifier status yet?  I'm getting ready to do a rundown here.  Unless I hear otherwise, I'm sticking with SAA does qualify automatically, MASCAC does not.

I have kept my eye out for the "Final Championship Manual" but don't think its out yet.

Here is the link for others to check periodically.

http://www.ncaa.org/championships/division-iii-football

wally_wabash

Alright, let's do this.  Again, SAA is getting an A bid in this universe, the MASCAC is not, and the A/B/C bid allocation is 25/2/5.  Next Wednesday we get our first official regional rankings, so this projection will happen sometime shortly after those get released. 

Pool A, new teams in italics:

   League   
   Team   
   ASC   
   UMHB   
   CC   
   Johns Hopkins   
   CCIW   
   Wheaton   
   ECFC   
   Husson   
   E8   
   St. John Fisher   
   HCAC   
   Franklin   
   IIAC   
   Wartburg   
   LL   
   Hobart   
   MAC   
   Widener   
   MIAA   
   Trine   
   MIAC   
   Bethel   
   MWC   
   Carroll   
   NACC   
   Concordia (Wis)   
   NCAC   
   Wabash   
   NEFC   
   MIT   
   NJAC   
   Montclair State   
   NWC   
   Linfield   
   OAC   
   Mount Union   
   ODAC   
   Hampden-Sydney   
   PAC   
   Washington & Jefferson   
   SAA   
   Centre   
   SCIAC   
   Chapman   
   UMAC   
   St. Scholastica   
   USAC   
   Christopher Newport   
   WIAC   
   UW-Whitewater   

- Wheaton's giant win over North Central gives them control over the CCIW (yes, Elmhurst, I know you're there) and takes the Thunder out of a pretty precarious Pool C situation.  They weren't going to look good.  Now it's North Central sweating bullets (we'll get to that later)
- MIT takes over the lead in the the NEFC with a monster game this Saturday with Endicott.  Endicott still has a game left with Western New England as well, so the NEFC could turn itself into a three way mess. 
- One week after I corrected my Huntingdon mistake, the Hawks lost a kind of a bad game against LaGrange and lost their spot in the field.  Barring any other USAC weirdness, Christopher Newport (newly projected in) and Maryville will play in Week 11 for this bid. 

Pool B:
Wesley (4-0, 5-0 vs. D3, 2-0 vs. RRO, 0.676 SOS)

The other Pool B looks like it comes down to:
Texas Lutheran (5-1, 0-1 vs. RRO, 0.592 SOS)
Framingham State (6-1, 0-1 vs. RRO, 0.562 SOS)
Chicago (6-1, 1-1 vs RRO, 0.517 RRO)

I'm giving Chicago an RRO win vs. Elmhurst because I think they'll make the North's top 10 this week.  Framingham's RRO result is Rowan, and the Profs are right now, at best, a fringe ranked team.  Despite their beastly schedule, I'm not sure that even the East RAC could justify their 4-3 record being in the top ten.  But for today, it'll stand.  TLU is obviously fresh off their UMHB whoopin'.  This is a tough call.  I'm giving the nod to TLU based on their SOS, but that SOS is at it's highwater mark.  It's going to fall a fair amount as they play through their SCAC schedule.  So today, TLU is in, but over the next three week's they're in trouble here if Chicago continues win (especially if Elmhurst can beat either Wheaton or North Central and be ranked at the end), and while Framingham might lose their RRO next week, they also have a game against Endicott, which they won, and Endicott is probably a win over MIT on Saturday from popping up in the East's rankings.  The point is that TLU's résumé is right now as good as it's going to get.  Chicago and Framingham have avenues for help in the primary criteria. So this isn't just as easy as if TLU keeps winning, this bid is theirs.  They could easily lose this spot as their competitors accumulate beneficial criteria capital. 

Pool C...as always, I'm going to do this stream-of-consciousness style.  Right now, I don't have any idea how this plays out.  Let's get to it. 

Round 1:
John Carroll (7-0, 1-0 vs. RRO, 0.498 SOS)
Thomas More (6-2, 0-2 vs. RRO, 0.433 SOS)
Delaware Valley (7-0, 2-0 vs. RRO, 0.551 SOS)
UW-Platteville (6-1, 1-1 vs. RRO, 0.511 SOS)

--Delaware Valley, I think, is getting pretty close to lock status.  If they don't win the MAC, they've got really nice looking wins against Lycoming and Montclair State (in position to win the NJAC).  The SOS is nice.  Really good looking profile here. 

Round 2:
John Carroll (7-0, 1-0 vs. RRO, 0.498 SOS)
Thomas More (6-2, 0-2 vs. RRO, 0.433 SOS)
St. Lawrence (6-1, 0-0 vs. RRO, 0.549 SOS)
UW-Platteville (6-1, 1-1 vs. RRO, 0.511 SOS)

--Platteville still has a RRO win against Stevens Point.  That's gone should Stevens Point lose at all to non-Whitewater teams and it may be gone even if they lose to Whitewater.  Lots of good teams out in the West.  The order in the West is going to get shuffled next week.  C-M plays St. Thomas, Platteville gets Whitewater...just to start. 

Round 3:
John Carroll (7-0, 1-0 vs. RRO, 0.498 SOS)
Thomas More (6-2, 0-2 vs. RRO, 0.433 SOS)
St. Lawrence (6-1, 0-0 vs. RRO, 0.549 SOS)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1, 1-1 vs. RRO, 0.540 SOS)

-- John Carroll is the choice here despite a significant SOS difference with C-M.  But I like them here because they do have the regional ranked win against Heidelberg (whether or not I think Heidelberg ought to be ranked, they're going to be) and I think John Carroll is going to be no worse than the 4th ranked team in the North, maybe 3rd at the end of week 11.  Their SOS won't be much different then, but they've been rock solid. 

Round 4:
Wittenberg (6-0, 0-0 vs. RRO, 0.484 SOS)
Thomas More (6-2, 0-2 vs. RRO, 0.433 SOS)
St. Lawrence (6-1, 0-0 vs. RRO, 0.549 SOS)
Concordia-Moorhead (6-1, 1-1 vs. RRO, 0.540 SOS)

-- The Cobbers are the clear choice here with the heavy SOS advantage and quality results which everybody else lacks.  C-M finds themselves in big trouble if they lose this week or next. 

Round 5:
Wittenberg (6-0, 0-0 vs. RRO, 0.484 SOS)
Thomas More (6-2, 0-2 vs. RRO, 0.433 SOS)
St. Lawrence (6-1, 0-0 vs. RRO, 0.549 SOS)
UW-Stevens Point (6-1, 1-1 vs. RRO, 0.521 SOS)

-- As with last week, I'm breaking my rule about not having more than one team from the same league be eligible for Pool C because the gap between the third WIAC/MIAC team and who's left in the West is massive.  And this week, Stevens Point looks a little better than St. John's does (that is what a game with Carleton does for your selection profile).  Point gets Oshkosh this week, so their season is on the line (as is Oshkosh's).  This fifth spot is really fluid. 

Looking ahead, the West still has some work to do on itself and then that's going to open this fifth spot up to somebody else.  Some thoughts:

- St. Lawrence is probably not in play with a looming game against Hobart.  They'll either win that game and win the LL or they'll get knocked out. 
- I'm really interested to see what happens after the Witt/Wabash game and where the loser of that game gets slotted relative to North Central.  I don't believe North Central should slide ahead of single loss Wabash and I don't think that' would happen.  Single loss Witt is a different deal though...The SOS gap and RRO difference between those two might make it feasible for the North RAC to move Witt back behind North Central if they lose.  I don't favor that kind of most recent loser cycling back to the end of the line thinking, but that's sometimes how it works.  The larger point is that North Central today doesn't even see the board here.  After the next couple of weeks, if North Central does get slotted ahead of Witt and behind JCU, they'd see the board and they'd start to have a very 2013 SJF feel to their profile.  Interesting team to watch. 
- I'm starting to think that we are almost certainly going to have a two-loss Pool C team.  We're pretty rapidly running out of one-loss candidates and we've still got three weeks and lots of head-to-heads left. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

ExTartanPlayer

#115
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 29, 2014, 03:07:10 PM
- I'm starting to think that we are almost certainly going to have a two-loss Pool C team.  We're pretty rapidly running out of one-loss candidates and we've still got three weeks and lots of head-to-heads left.

I think you're probably right.  Running through it (by conference) to find all potential one-loss teams that could end up in Pool C...

ASC: if HSU beats UMHB for the AQ, then UMHB could be on the board as a one-loss runnerup.  Very unlikely.
CC: if Muhlenberg wins out or if Ursinus beats Muhl and JHU, there could be a one-loss runnerup (Muhlenberg in scenario 1, Hopkins in scenario 2).   
CCIW: if Elmhurst beats Wheaton for the AQ, then Wheaton could be on the board as a one-loss runnerup.  Pretty unlikely.
ECFC: no possibility of one-loss runnerup.
E8: no possibility of one-loss runnerup.
HCAC: no possibility of one-loss runnerup.
IIAC: if BVU beats Wartburg and wins the AQ, then Wartburg could be on the board as a one-loss runnerup.  Very unlikely.
LL: if SLU beats Hobart and wins the AQ, then Hobart could be on the board as a one-loss runnerup.  Very unlikely.
MAC: runnerup (DelVal/Widener loser) is likely to be 9-1.
MIAA: no possibility of one-loss runnerup.
MIAC: see below, too complicated to hash out yet
MWC: if Macalester beats Carroll this week and wins the AQ, Carroll could be on the board as a one-loss runnerup.
NACC: no possibility of one-loss runnerup.
NCAC: runnerup is likely to have one D3 loss (8-1 against D3 if it's Wit, 9-1 if it's Wabash).
NEFC: if MIT takes the AQ and WNE runs the table, WNE could be on the board; if Endicott beats MIT and loses to WNE, there's a messy tiebreaker, but someone will be on the board with one loss.
NJAC: no possibility of one-loss runnerup.
NWC: if Pacific beats Linfield and wins the AQ, then Linfield could be on the board as a one-loss runnerup.  Unlikely.
OAC runnerup (JCU/Mount loser)
ODAC: if Emory & Henry runs the table, they could be on the board as a one-loss runnerup (already have played likely champ HSC).
PAC: if Waynesburg beats W & J and wins the AQ, then W & J could be on the board as a one-loss runnerup.  Very unlikely.
SAA: if Birmingham-Southern beats Centre and wins the AQ, then Centre could be on the board as a one-loss runnerup.  Unlikely.
SCIAC: no possibility of one-loss runnerup.
UMAC: if Greenville beats St. Scholastica and wins the AQ, then CSS could be on the board as a one-loss runnerup.  Possible?
USAC:  no possibility of one-loss runnerup.
WIAC: if UWP beats UWW and wins the AQ, then UWW could be on the board as a one-loss runnerup.  Very unlikely.

On the MIAC, a place from which a one-loss runnerup would likely be a lock because of the sterling SOS and RR results that most of those teams will likely be sporting come season's end...the MIAC's remaining one-loss teams are as follows:

Bethel (5-0, 6-1): @GAC, @SJU, Augsburg
Concordia-Moorhead (5-1, 7-1): @UST, GAC
GAC (4-1, 6-1):  Bethel, @C-M, @UST
SJU (4-1, 6-1): @Augsburg, Bethel, @St. Olaf

I guess my point in going through all of that was figuring out that the only possible scenario with a one-loss MIAC runnerup is Bethel running the table and Concordia-Moorhead doing the same.  The only other combination of those 11 games that I can drum up that leaves two MIAC teams with one loss is Gustavus Adolophus and St. John's both running the table (in which case St. John's would win the conference title and GAC would be 9-1 and in Pool C), but that seems less likely than the other option of Bethel and C-M both running the table; it's just hard to imagine Bethel losing two straight to GAC and SJU.

Narrowing the above list down, here are conferences that realistically could produce a 1-loss Pool C candidate:

CC - Muhlenberg
MAC - DelVal/Widener loser
MIAC - if someone emerges from the aforementioned bloodbath with one loss and without the Pool A
MWC - Carroll (would have to lose to Macalester)
NCAC - Witt/Wabash loser
NEFC - possibly WNE or MIT
OAC - JCU/Mount loser
ODAC - Emory & Henry (needs to beat Guilford in finale)
UMAC - St. Scholastica (would have to lose to Greenville)
WIAC - UWW (would have to lose to UWP)

Narrowing that list down, since a few of those currently-undefeated-leader-needs-to-lose-to-someone-that-wins-out scenarious are still rather unlikely, I think you'll have a one-loss Pool C team on the board from the Centennial, MAC, MIAC (maybe), NCAC, NEFC (maybe), OAC, and ODAC.  So that's probably, at most, seven one-loss teams that are  going to be in the mix (I realize not all of them will necessarily be "on the board" because of the regional pecking order, just fleshing out all of the teams who might be in these conversations).
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smedindy

#116
Why is Thomas More on the South board and not Muhlenberg? I don't think I've seen the Mules in this exercise this year and they're a candidate for 9-1. Ursinus could be there too. I think one of those is a better choice than Thomas More (though Ursinus plays JH Saturday so you may want to just slot in Muhlenberg there now....)

FCGrizzliesGrad

With the current field of 32 based on Wally's projections... here's what I see

Huntingdon falling out reduces the geographic orphan games to 3.
Chapman at Linfield
Texas Lutheran at UMHB
Husson at MIT or Montclair St

If the NCAA keeps the flights to a minimum... I just don't see how they avoid a possible Linfield-UMHB 2nd round game. They'd have 1 flight in the 1st round and 1 (maybe 2 depending on what Husson does) in the 2nd round. Hopefully they splurge for an extra flight so that isn't the case.
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wally_wabash

Quote from: smedindy on October 29, 2014, 05:09:48 PM
Why is Thomas More on the South board and not Muhlenberg? I don't think I've seen the Mules in this exercise this year and they're a candidate for 9-1. Ursinus could be there too. I think one of those is a better choice than Thomas More (though Ursinus plays JH Saturday so you may want to just slot in Muhlenberg there now....)

I happen to agree with you, but through this week at least I'm using the fan polls (where available) on Post Patterns as surrogate regional rankings.  So why Thomas More instead of Muhlenberg?  Because the folks ranking teams in the South region said so.  If I were ranking this unilaterally, I'd probably have Muhlenberg ahead of Thomas More because they do grade out a little better per the criteria, unless we're giving Thomas More not just a pass for losing to Wesley, but giving them credit for having played Wesley in the first place. 

But then even if we put Muhlenberg on top of the South's queue here, the Mules are 6-1, 0-1 vs. RRO, with a 0.502 SOS which makes me give them a look as I go down through the rounds (Thomas More isn't really a consideration at this point), but ultimately I don't think I'm picking Muhlenberg either.  With coming carnage and a favorable regional ranking next week though, Muhlenberg, if they keep winning, is going to look better and better. 

It's probably worth sharing my next-ups in each region's at large queue.  Here's what was next up after today's exercise (teams left on the table- first out if you will- in italics):

North: Witt, North Central, Chicago, Heidelberg
South: Thomas More, Muhlenberg, Guilford, Emory & Henry
East: St. Lawrence, Lycoming, Ithaca, Framingham State
West: St. John's, UW-Oshkosh, St. Thomas, Gustavus Adolphus
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smedindy

#119
Forgot about the fan poll thing deal bit. We need Wes to come back and fill ours in!

We should include Chicago and Framingham (or TLU) as a one-loss "C" potentials unless they mess up somehow.

QuoteHopefully they splurge for an extra flight so that isn't the case.

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