MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Williams now ranks first in the Snyder efficiency rankings:

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

The defensive ranking I buy, but fourth overall in offense feels high.  The Ephs can clearly lock nearly anyone down when they are fully engaged on the defensive end.  The last four games, against pretty solid competition, the Ephs have averaged giving up 50 ppg, and a good number of those points seemed to come late, when the games were already decided.  The Williams offense while also very good is a bit more hit-and-miss.  I do think the Ephs have a lot of unrealized upside still on offense, with Roughley, Lee, and Hansen in particular all able to make bigger contributions over time as they get more opportunities and figure out their roles.  The Ephs have really leaned on their veteran leaders over the past four games, with the four returning starters (Prowitt-Smith, Karren, Spivy and Porter) doing nearly all the heavy lifting, but to reach their full potential the Ephs will need bigger offensive contributions from the rest of the rotation.  Roughley in particular I think we will see emerge now that he has had a chance to work his way back from his injury hiatus.  And Lee and Hansen bring a degree of quickness and energy that will in time really help. 

I will say, I will not miss watching games against these upstate New York teams.  They just seem to devolve into slow, physical slogs. 

As for Amherst, the Yeshiva and Springfield games, based on the box scores, seemed to go the same way.  In both games, Amherst shot 50 percent (!) from 3, and in both, Amherst outrebounded their opponents by a lot.  Very, very hard to lose games against non-elite competition when you do that, but turnovers are just absolutely killing Amherst - 50 combined in those two games.  The Colby-Sawyer loss was not all that much better, 18 turnovers in that one.  Amherst current is last in NESCAC with a -7 TO ratio despite playing one of the weaker schedules in the league.  As a silver lining, that issue should be correctable to some degree, but if Amherst is anything close to that sloppy with the ball in league play, it's gonna be a long year; even when you shoot it well (and Amherst is not usually going to make 50 percent from 3) you just can't gift your opponent so many more shot attempts.   

[ephoops]

The Oneonta game was the one that I feared from the beginning. Tuesday night, rushing to get out of class & get to the bus, 2+ hours down, late in the semester. Everybody writing papers or studying before the game. Williams has lost that game several times in recent years. I am very pleased with the win.

Toad - I agree.  The mid-week December road games were tough to play while at Williams for all the reasons you noted.

[lumbercat]

Tuned in for Bates-Bowdoin game tonight in Brunswick. Forget the non conference status, this is always a big game.

Morrell gym is empty......is it snowing up there, covid breakout???..........Ahh, just checked the Bowdoin athletic schedule to see that the resurgent 5-1 Hockey Polar Bears under new coach Ben Guite are playing across campus. As it was back in the day, Morell Gym on Hockey nights becomes a cavernous morgue and Basketball becomes a secondary sport at Bowdoin.  Ray Bicknell battled the frustration of that syndrome for years with his Polar Bear cagers.

At the end of the day Bowdoin is a Hockey school.

Also not sure why the voice of Bobacat Basketball Aaron Morse is doing the play by play on a game at Bowdoin??? Thats a first for NESCAC sports telecasts but no complaints here from the Garnet faithful - As the voice of the Bobcats Aaron is the best. Happy to listen to his call in place of the Bowdoin play by play guy who does nothing but repeat the old trite 1960's call of "BANG" when the Bears make a hoop.

[middhoops]

The Alex Sobel experience was visited upon Skidmore tonight in Saratoga Springs.
The big guy scored 29, with 20 boards, 7 blocks and 8 offensive boards in a 73-53 win.

[nescac1]

Sobel's stat lines just continue to be utterly ridiculous.  He is if he stays healthy a virtual lock for NESCAC POY and first team all-American, and likely the favorite for national POY. 

Meanwhile, Colby's Max Poulton is an equally overwhelming favorite for NESCAC ROY.  That would give Colby its third in four years.  Weirdly, neither of the other two (Noah Tyson and Will King) have ever been named to an all league team and both are going to likely be on the fringes of that conversation this year (I think at least one probably sneaks onto at least the second team).  If you go back prior to 2019, every NESCAC ROY went on to all-conference and typically all-American honors ... Austin Hutcherson, Kena Gilmour, Jack Simonds, Johnny McCarthy, Duncan Robinson, Tom Palleschi, Aaron Toomey, Sha Brown etc.  Ben Ferris was an exception but he struggled with injuries I believe.  Is the league bringing in fewer super high-end recruits?  Or is Colby just really good at showcasing frosh? 

Two interesting non-league games today to end the semester.  Wesleyan plays unbeaten Bridgewater State, which is led by a transfer from D1 Maine.  Wesleyan has been struggling and could really use this one heading into the semester break. 

Trinity plays at Western New England, which has played well vs. a very tough schedule and may be the best team in the CCC.  This looks like the best of an extraordinarily weak non-league schedule for Trinity, and given that Trinity's league schedule seems fairly back-loaded, the Bants have a very good chance of staying undefeated for awhile longer and breaking into the top 25 in early January ... IF they can win this one on the road.  Western New England is coached by Trinity legend Colin Tabb, adding to the intrigue. 

[SpringSt7]

Great point re: ROYs nescac1. Also worth noting that the reigning ROY Sam Stevens is struggling at the moment too and probably wouldn't be an all-league guy either, in addition to the presumed runner up, Nicky Johnson. I expect Stevens to turn it around this year and to also have a very fruitful career as an upperclassman but that would be 3 straight since Hutcherson that have not taken that next step up---Hutcherson and Gilmour were both 1st teamers as sophomores.

I think as of right now the King and Tyson years are more or less one-offs, if I remember correctly neither of those years featured terribly strong competition from other freshmen---Sobel was also Tyson's year but was stuck behind Farrel/Bosco/Folger on a stacked Midd team. King's year featured Steph Baxter, Ben McPherron, and Cole Prowitt-Smith scoring in double digits but all on teams that finished in the bottom half of the league from a W-L perspective. Colby has been in a sweet spot the last few years where they had a strong returning core that allowed freshmen to come in and flourish but also did not have enough depth that took away from their minutes.

I expect, too, that once the league returns to a more normal post COVID world of 4 year players and no logjams of recruits, that the normal trend will return although maybe not to the level that it once was.

[JEFFFAN]

Good posts about possibly fewer great players coming into NESCAC.  IMHO, the whole high school rating system gets more efficient each year, meaning that fewer kids like Sobel are going to go NESCAC when they can go Ivy or Patriot.   Just very unlikely that these kids will fall through the cracks the way they might have in the past.   Of course with Duncan Robinson his growth of six inches senior year in high school rendered him an anomaly.  Had he grown that much six months prior he doesn't end up in Billsville.   It is still a little surprising that someone didn't swoop in the summer before he matriculated but good for Williams that didn't happen!

[nescac1]

Trinity, finally facing real competition, goes down to a tough Western New England team.  Down two, Trinity ran a good play to get an open 3 at the buzzer and it just couldn't drop.  Williams trying to hang on vs. Springfield to remain the last undefeated NESCAC team ...

Great day for the rest of NESCAC so far.  Wesleyan gets a badly needed win over previously undefeated Bridgewater State, who is likely the MASCAC favorite this year (although Worcester State is pretty tough as well). 

[nescac1]

The Ephs survive a game Springfield team, which fought hard with aggressive play and quick hands. 

Stat of the game for Williams is nine blocks from six different players.  Spencer Spivy made a leap as a defender last year, and Cole Prowitt-Smith has made one this year.  Toss in Evan Glatzer, who has always been a defensive specialist, and it is very hard to get clean looks from 3 over the Ephs' absolutely massive guards.  Indeed, Prowitt-Smith and Glatzer each blocked a three today, Prowitt-Smith in circus fashion.

Nate Karren, Spencer Spivy, Declan Porter and Hudson Hansen led the way for the Ephs in this one.  Spivy had a great two-way game, moving well without the ball and converting inside and out.  Nate had some beautiful passes and stout interior D.  Porter continues to be the smoothest offensive player on the team, nailing four more threes, two from at least 25 feet away.  When he takes it to the hole, it usually ends well for the team, as well.  Three assists vs. no turnovers for him (only four total the entire first semester!). 

Finally, Hudson Hansen is looking better and better and had a break-out game on both ends.  He brings a burst of energy and athleticism off the bench, just a very different look from the other members of the Williams front court, plays at a different pace.  12 points, 7 boards, an assist, a steal, and 3 blocks in only 22 minutes.  His gorgeous spinning layup in the lane was the play of the game offensively.  He is going to be a key player going forward this season as the Ephs learn to mesh his style with the rest of the team. 

The Ephs had a few too many turnovers leading to easy buckets in this one, and yet, still only 53 points surrendered.  They end the first semester giving up more than 60 in only one game.  The Ephs' half-court defense continues to be a bear for teams to find good looks against.  The Ephs are looking very good, and yet, there is plenty of unrealized offensive upside on this roster, with two frosh playing key roles still learning, and Roughley not quite where he certainly can get to in the second semester. 

For Springfield, keep an eye on frosh Josiah Evely.  A very smooth, old-school sort of game, EXTREMELY quick hands and just knows how to play, playing bigger than his listed size.  He will be an all-NEWMAC player in future years for sure and I assume a top contender for NEWMAC ROY.   

[Middfan]

The Alex Sobel experience was visited upon Skidmore tonight in Saratoga Springs.
The big guy scored 29, with 20 boards, 7 blocks and 8 offensive boards in a 73-53 win.

There’s no question that Sobel has been a dominant player so far in this short season.  Friday night, he left the local Skidmore fans and coaching staff frustrated and amazed. What doesn’t get spoken about as much is the relentless level of intensity he brings to his time in the paint. He often gets second and third chance points or rebounds while simply leaving the other players weary or unable to sustain the effort.  This culture of tenacity has spread to David Brennan who, although undersized and lacking the same length as Alex, brings a warrior’s mindset to rebounding and second chance points. This culture is also spreading to first year big Jackson McKersie.

Still, when your attack is as narrow as it is right now for the Panthers, they are bound to run up against a defense that will slow them down. Outside shooting and cutting down on turnovers will have to improve meaningfully as they head into the NESCAC schedule.

[jayhawk]

Amherst still rebuilding with fresh/soph and recruits

went to see Amherst recruit Johnny McCain from Canterbury School in local tournament
He can light it up from 3 beyond NBA 3 point line

New England Recruiting Report took note on Twitter:
NERR
@NERRHoops
Amherst commit & @cburyboysbball
 shooting guard Johnny McCain went off for 26 points on 6 three-pointers during a win. The long-range sniper needs very little time/space to get attempts off and can hit treys coming off screens or when spotting up.

[nescac1]

Amherst is certainly pretty bad right now, but the hope for them lies in the fact that their five starters and top eight scorers (and ten of their top eleven) are underclassmen, and seven of those top eleven guys are 6'6 or taller.  So they are really two years away from having a veteran-heavy squad.  Randle, while he has a long way to go, in particular has a ton of upside ... there just aren't many 7'1 guys who are coordinated and can shoot from 3 hanging around Division 3.  But, the team will continue to have some growing pains this year while all those raw young players gain experience.  Sears seems to have finally gone all in on his youth movement, mixing in very few veteran minutes (maybe heading towards none), which seems like the right way to go. 

With the first semester JUST about over, I'd say that based only on the first semester, Sobel is the current leader as POY, App as COY, and Poulton as ROY, with the all-NESCAC squad to date being Sobel, Karren, Porter, Callahan-Gold, and Thoerner.  Other guys in the conversation heading into the second semester: N. Johnson, McGowan, Prowitt-Smith, Spivy, D. Murray, Maccoux, Baxter, H. Morgan, Tyson.  Most improved player and top sixth man, Khai Champion on Tufts.  DPOY, Sobel. 

[nescac1]

Nice commitment for Williams, Tyler Van Gorp, a 6'11 center from New Trier, Illinois who seems to have a lot of upside: 

https://twitter.com/TylerVanGorp/status/1602066739357011968?s=20&t=l-BO4K2l3H7O42VHamGKdQ

In other news a big-time recruit for Bowdoin.  A high-flier with one low D1 offer who is one of the highest ranked Nescac recruits on NERR in recent years.  I’m sure he will play right away for a Bowdoin team desperately in need of athletes up front:

https://newenglandrecruitingreport.com/recruits/justas-bardauskas-2023

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9Hu75AjjcJA

https://twitter.com/bartka_12/status/1602104767735627778?s=46&t=FersbaXFRdwTIe1E7kuPQA

[Old Guy]

Middlebury finished the fall (pre-holiday) season at 8-1, their only blemish a two-point loss against a good Rochester team playing at home. I had a chance to watch every minute of this 3-0 week (with the only two home games in the 9 we've played), three one-sided wins, against three admittedly not great teams. Plattsburgh (3-8) is not what they were once but not as bad as they were last year (2-23) and have now lost 5 in a row; Skidmore (5-5) likewise not what they were a few years back (they are big, starting three 6'7"s with a 6'11" first off the bench); and Stevens Tech today (5-5) came in with 5 wins in a row. Today's first half against Stevens, Midd was as good as it's possible to be. We ran and hit every shot we took for while, jumped out to 10-0, 20-4, 40-13 leads. Sobel had lots of help today. Stevens (12 points) swished his first two threes, Osher had 17 points. Lots of players got playing time.

It's great fun to watch Sobel who had a terrific week (today 12 points, 13 rebounds, just one block but 7 assists in 27 minutes). All three opponents this week doubled him when he got the ball and he just found the open man. He's deft with the ball. We look for him on the low block and at the top of the key, so he has the ball in his hands a lot and is a good passer. In three games this week he had 15 assists. He's playing so deliberately in both senses of the word, with poise and control. He has great hands, effective both left and right-handed around the hoop; He has terrific timing — his blocks are taps that keep the ball in play and start the break. He gets every rebound, nothing flashy, doesn't bring the ball down, makes a good outlet pass. No dumb fouls. No complaining when the ref misses one. Very focused, composed. I know this level of performance may not last at this spectacular level as smart NESCAC coaches with deep rosters are already thinking of ways to keep him away from the hoop to preclude his playing that one-man zone underneath, but it sure has been great so far!

Midd has a post Christmas tourney at Eastern CT State with games on the 29th (New Paltz) and 30th (the other two teams are Eastern CT and New Jersey City U. Happy holidays all!

[Colby Hoops]

Colby finishes the first semester on a high note with wins over UMF and Bates this week. Two really nice games from Jack Lawson who had been off to an extremely slow start but finished with 20+ points and 10+ boards in both games. If he continues to play well and Noah Tyson can shoot it better, I think the Mules can be a very dangerous offensive team again.

The team has proven it's at a minimum very solid, but I think there remains a question of how they stack up against the best teams. None of the wins in the first semester are against overly impressive opponents, but Colby has comfortably beaten Brandeis, Bowdoin and Bates, which is a good sign. The rotation has shaped up nicely with 9 players getting regular minutes and all contributing effectively right now -- guys like Alec McGovern, Liam Oconnell and Cooper Wirkala have all played very solidly at the end of the rotation and providing effective three point shooting that wasn't there for the Mules last year. My main concern is how Colby holds up defensively against top teams.

Regarding the ROY discussion, I think there's certainly an element of available opportunity for freshman on Colby that hasn't been there on some other teams leading to the run of ROYs. I also think it's somewhat unique circumstances of the players. Noah Tyson came in from day 1 and was a winning player -- excellent rebounder, defender, cutter and solid spot up shooter. He's never been a guy who creates his own offense, which makes it hard to rise to that all-league, all-american level. Still, he's a player who would fit on every team in the country and be extremely valuable. Congrats to him on his 1,000th point recently as well.

To be fair to Will King, he's really only had an injury shortened season last year since his freshman year. What's changed for him is that he's never flashed the scoring that he did near the end of his freshman year. But, he remains an absolutely elite passer -- averaging close to 6 assists per game over his career while leading the league in assist to turnover ratio by a significant margin. He didn't have enough games last year to qualify last year for the leaders page, but would've led league in assists and A/TO for second consecutive year. He's also an excellent rebounder averaging nearly 5 per game for his career. I think he should be firmly in the mix for all-league this year where he's looking at averaging something like 10-5-6, particularly if the shooting percentages tick up to previous levels. Averaging 6 assists per game in Nescac is more rare than averaging 20+ points per game.

I think Poulton is a bit more of a traditional ROY -- he's an elite scorer and I think will continue to develop as someone who creates offense.