MBB: USA South Conference

Started by CNU85, March 16, 2005, 12:28:10 PM

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captj

AUC -

You've been pretty quiet lately, even with your guys doing so well.  Hopefully the only times you post won't be when I make a boo-boo.  Speak up!  Tell us what's making the Cougars play so well this year.

cnu85

#946
I'm still disappointed in CNU student turnout for the games. With a school of about 5,000 we should put more Freeman Fanatics in the stands! Where are all the other student athletes besides the baseball team? And they have to leave in February when their season starts. The football team showed up a few times in the past few years....where have they been this year? And where is the pep band? a no show so far this year? The cheerleaders are good! But from my last row nosebleed seat, not many of us old "blue haired" people in the stands cheer with them.  They only get a real nice applause when they do the pom pom "C" "N" "U" thing. If we can put 1,000 from the community in the Freeman when school is on break, we should be able to put 2,000 in the stands on a regular basis! I haven't seen the Freeman as being "Fan Tough" since a few years ago when we were ranked as high as #2 and made it to the Elite 8 only to be denied a trip to the final four in an OT game.

Bring back the pep band
and somehow get the students excited about hoops!! It will bring more people from the commnity to the game. Make Tommasino hoarse from having to speak over the crowd!

captj

Quote from: cnu85 on January 19, 2006, 10:47:58 AM
I'm still disappointed in CNU student turnout for the games.

It's not like high school where they have mandatory-attendance pep rallies to get the kids fired up with school spirit.  But you're right, the student attendance did seem low the early part of the year before semester break.  Maybe they were all cramming for finals?  I  do know that with the school's shift from a commuter college to a more traditional one, fewer students will attend during the semester break since they are now from out-of-town.

I do miss the football and baseball teams.  They did a LOT to get the fans fired up during the games.  Maybe in the past those teams felt like they were second fiddle to the basketball program, and now that football has become a big part of the CNU experience and the baseball team has that great new facility, they don't feel like they need the extra attention.  Just a theory.  I doubt that the basketball players go to baseball games, although I do remember seeing Albert Haskins at a football game doing some pre-season basketball promotion a few years ago.  I think he was handing out schedules.

cnufan

I did some snooping on the pep band thing. Apparently, since CNU started a marching band program, that the pep band is actually a class that they can get credit for. So obviously, when school is out for the semester or for Thanksgiving break, we wont ever see the pep band. I believe the one opportunity they had to show and did not come was the season opener against Southern Virginia. I do know they will and should be at every home game from here one out. The pep band of old was a group of mostly non CNU students (who were tho at one time) who had put the pep band together and were at every game, but since they got rid of them and have this new group, they wont come to every game.

cnu85

Actually, I've been disappointed for a few years at the student turnout. No more excuses for this year. And where is the football team? The baseball team made a few games when there wasn't a break.

I do know that a few of the football players went to baseball games. I went to one baseball game 2 years ago and the football offensive line was there...they were cracking me up! Good group of guys.

Captj - I think you could be right. I don't recall seeing the hoops players at the football games. But it is hard to pick out 14 guys at Pomoco....even if some of them are over 6'5". I can remember in high school, athletes went to just about every other sporting even, unless there was a conflict in schedules. Just seems to me that the teams can support each other a little better than they do.


AUCougars

Well Capt. J, the main reason we are playing so well is because we have Coach Allen on our side.  He really knows how to get the most out of his players and can construct a style of play around who he has available.  Last season we scored over 70 points only 10 times all season and were more productive in the 1/2 court set.  This year we have done that 12 times already and like to outrun the opponents.  We are more athletic this season.

There are also several that can hurt you on the offensive end for AU.  We are averaging 78+ points per game and only Sterling Williams (12) and Cory McDaniel (10) are averaging double figures.

Are you making the trip this Sunday?  It should be a great game with two very athletic teams.  Keep your eye on the little guard #14 Dominique Stevenson, he is fun to watch, as are all of the Cougars, he is just lightning fast.

narch

Quote from: captj on January 19, 2006, 07:41:01 AM
narch - "Rubbish" might be harsh, but your formulaic method was certainly flawed.  The example that nerd provided is pretty conclusive proof of that. 

how is the formula flawed?  how else would you measure the competetive advantage gained by teams when they play at home (other than measuring point spreads, which i could care less about...wins are what matter in my book)?

Quote from: hugenerd on January 18, 2006, 03:40:06 PM
According to your analysis, a team that wins 100% of home games and 100% of away games would be at the bottom of your list because their differential would be 0 (likewise if a team loses all their games on the road and 40% at home, they would be at the top of your list).  

how does this prove a flaw?  if a team wins 100% of their home games AND 100% of their away games, how do you KNOW that playing at home gives them ANY competetive advantage?...it's not measurable - likewise, if a team wins 40% more at home than they do on the road, how can you say that playing at home ISN'T a competetive advantage for said team, especially when you compound those numbers over numerous seasons?

the flaw is with those who make the assumption that good teams win at home BECAUSE they are at home and not because they are good - certainly the numbers prove that there is such thing as "home court advantage", but some teams derive more of an advantage than others

i presented this analysis with the caveat that i was using the differential between home and road winning % to measure a mythical claim to which school is the "toughest place to play in the conference"...in other words, which school benefits the most from playing at home - i suspect that, in reality, the "toughest place to play" varies from school to school and even player to player - i'll bet some players PREFER to play on the road...maybe the rims at au are really tight and a particular shooter likes tight rims, or they like the look they get in hanes or they like to play in front of larger crowds at cnu - as such, i concede flaw in ANY formula, but i challenge you to find a formula that is LESS flawed than mine :)

narch

Quote from: ISoar on January 19, 2006, 04:55:45 AMAs for MC... the first three years  Our fans were pretty weak.  Our cheerleaders didn't lead cheers.  I've seen fans actually cheer the other team, because of a blocked shot, or a dunk.  Weak.  During an SU game, where we were playing for a conf championship, it was a two point game with less than 5min left and you could hear a pin drop.  Last year was better, but it was still kinda random.  One thing our fans lack is basketball IQ.  It might have something to do with the fact that we have very few homegames.  Maybe its just because I'm from Gainesville that I'm so critical of our fans, but maybe its because they really aren't that great.

i agree wholeheartedly - the random nature is what bugs me the most - one game you'll have a few with painted faces and chests getting loud...remember how that group got in lenny hall's head last year with their "lenny, lenny" chants...it was great....and the next game it's like your in church...a really quiet one, not one of those pentecostal deals - it also bugs me that the cheerleaders and pep band (not sure if we even have one this year) don't show up for games when school is out - this year we had 4 home football games and a total of 19 men's and women's home hoops games (many of which are on the same night)...that's 23 events - they're getting scholarships, they ought to be at EVERY ONE of them - imagine if the basketball team or football team said "school isn't in so we don't have to show up for the game" - anyway, enough of my soapbox for the day - maryville is next, then ncwc on monday...should be a fun game and i'm HOPING for a rowdy crowd!

captj

Quote from: captj on January 19, 2006, 07:41:01 AM
"Rubbish" might be harsh, but your formulaic method was certainly flawed.  The example that nerd provided is pretty conclusive proof of that.  The reality of it is that there is probably no way to calculate "the toughest place to play" statistically or scientifically.  It is probably going to have to be done in some subjective way, which you have suggested by asking ISoar for his opinion.

You stopped quoting me too soon, narch.  Read the rest of the paragraph. 

You said yourself, "if a team wins 100% of their home games AND 100% of their away games, how do you KNOW that playing at home gives them ANY competetive advantage?...it's not measurable".  That's my point... we don't know, and your formula doesn't tell us.  You're agreeing that in this scenario (season sweep), it's not measurable.  So how is the formula not flawed if it doesn't work?  I propose that for a formula to be of any value, it has to work all the time.  Why are you continuing to defend this methodology?  It simply doesn't work.

captj

Quote from: narch on January 19, 2006, 01:57:36 PM
remember how that group got in lenny hall's head last year with their "lenny, lenny" chants...

Wow!  Thanks for the tip.  We need to do that when they come to the Freeman, cause he KILLED us in their gym.  We had no answer for him at all.

Let him have it, Captains fans!!!!

narch

#955
Quote from: captj on January 19, 2006, 02:50:36 PMYou're agreeing that in this scenario (season sweep), it's not measurable.  So how is the formula not flawed if it doesn't work?
not measurable and doesn't work are 2 different things, captj - in the unlikely event that a team went undefeated in the conference for a 3 - 5 year period, there would be no "measurable" competetive home court advantage for that team...the formula still works, though

if a scale tops out at 200 lbs, and i put my 200+ pound body on said scale and it is unable to measure my exact weight, does the scale work?

Quote from: captj on January 19, 2006, 02:50:36 PMWhy are you continuing to defend this methodology?
because
1.) i'm right :)
2.) i know you are bright enough to understand this, even with your public school education (this is a JOKE, please take it as such)
3.) i really want you to open your mind and be enlightened :)

take the challenge...find a better way to measure home court advantage - i don't pretend to think that this is the only or even best way to quantify home court advantage...it just happens to be the best way my pea brain can come up with :)

captj

Quote from: narch on January 19, 2006, 05:10:00 PM
if a scale tops out at 200 lbs, and i put my 200+ pound body on said scale and it is unable to measure my exact weight, does the scale work?

No, it doesn't.  Why are you using a 200 pound scale to weigh a narch or a CaptJ?  It is the wrong scale.  It doesn't serve its intended purpose.  Find a grown-up scale, because this one doesn't work.  And neither does your formula.  You want to pick and choose when you use it, and that does not make for a valid methodology. 

Geez, I give up.  If you can't see that then you are the one that needs to open your mind and be enlightened.  You are using the wrong scale!

captj

Quote from: narch on January 19, 2006, 05:10:00 PM
take the challenge...find a better way to measure home court advantage - i don't pretend to think that this is the only or even best way to quantify home court advantage...it just happens to be the best way my pea brain can come up with :)

I don't think that it can be quantified.  Even though I have suggested it myself, I don't like using home winning percentage by itself because it doesn't consider the weaker teams.  A weak team could have the noisiest gym, the most abusive fans, could be located thousands of miles from the visiting team (making travel to play there grueling), and its players could be truly inspired to play their absolute BEST ball at home.  But, they still lose.  Does that mean that their gym is NOT a tough place to play?  Heck, no.  I think only the players can answer this.  Where are they intimidated?  Where do they hate to go?  Where do they perform at their worst?  Get them to answer those three questions and you will have the answer, but I don't think it can be quantified with any formula. 

narch

Quote from: captj on January 19, 2006, 06:04:29 PMYou are using the wrong scale!
but it works :)

i've wrapped my noodle around this, and here is what i've come up with...i'm calling it effective home court advantage index or EHCAI

EHCAI = overall win % + h/r win % differential/2

higher EHCAI rewards good teams who play especially well at home - here is how the usasac stacks up over the last 5 years

team  EHCAI  win %
cnu - .470 - .76
mc  - .440 - .76
su  - .425 - .48
ncw - .385 - .58
gc  - .360 - .50
au  - .255 - .27
fc    - .225 - .27

and the last 3 years
(which is really all that matters since nobody who played 4 or 5 years ago is still playing)

team  EHCAI  win %
mc - .540 - .83
su - .490 - .53
cnu - .440 - .73
gc - .365 - .58
ncw - .300 - .50
fc - .215 - .28
au - .165 - .18

man, i've gone to great effort to prove something we all knew already...hanes is NOT the toughest place to play in the conference :)


cnufan

Quote
man, i've gone to great effort to prove something we all knew already...hanes is NOT the toughest place to play in the conference

I freakin love it!!