Pool C - 2017

Started by wally_wabash, October 09, 2017, 09:11:08 AM

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Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 25, 2017, 03:24:46 PM
Probably also a good time to try and curb blanketing these regional advisory committees as "The NCAA".  These regional committees are made up of coaches, school, and conference administrators from schools in their respective regions.  Ranking these teams within the construct of the limited criteria they have is really hard.  They take the job seriously, they care, they work hard at it, and I think deserve respect- even when we disagree. 

If you're curious about who is actually on each of the regional committees, you can look them up on pages 9-11 of the championship handbook.  Getting names and affiliations of the people involved I think helps to separate this activity from the larger "The NCAA", which is oftentimes worthy of all that shade.  But probably not these committees.

Exactly.
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merlecanlas

thanks Wally and Dave.  I thought there was a set criteria that each region had to use to rank their teams.  I had no idea that there was discretion within the regional ranking.  Thanks guys

jknezek

It could be a very interesting problem. If Hardin-Simmons and UMHB win out, very likely, I think they both get in. If CWRU wins out, I think they get in. Leaving out an undefeated team just isn't a good precedent. That sews up 3 of 7? 5 C and 2 B. So you've got 4 left. MIAC runner up with 1 loss, NJAC runner up with 1 loss are probably locks. 5 of 7. You've now got 2 left. When you start to think of it this way, you realize just how slight the odds are of getting 2 loss teams in. You are going to have more than 2 one loss teams, probably more than 2 just from the South with F&M and Centre. You could get a 1 loss conference champion from the CCC in the mix, or if CMU beats CWRU you'd have a 1 loss PAC runner up. You could have a one loss NCAC or CCIW runner up.

It is very difficult to look at a 2 loss team, especially one that is going to be 0-2 RRO at best with a moderate SOS and start to think they have much more than a very thin chance of making the field. And that doesn't mention someone like Westminster (PA), who if they win out could be a 1-2 or 2-2 RRO PAC runner up with both losses to highly RROs like W&J and Witt and wins over possible RROs like CWRU or CMU.

Competition for those few spots is brutally tough.

merlecanlas

are you including Springfield as a Pool B team?

jknezek

Quote from: merlecanlas on October 25, 2017, 03:44:09 PM
are you including Springfield as a Pool B team?

Springfield, HSU, and UMHB are all going for 2 Pool B spots with one of them ending up in C. If Springfield goes undefeated I think they and UMHB get the B's, HSU will get one of the first C spots off the table. Lot of variables, but only a few spots.

The whole point is a 2 loss team has almost no shot, regardless of whether UWW bottles up the West or not...

bluestreak66

What are the chances that there might be 3 MIAC teams in the field? I know it doesn't seem likely, but there could be a scenario where Whitewater wins out, CMU loses only to St. Johns, and finishes ahead of UWW by virtue of higher win percentage and H2H.
Needless to say, a Whitewater win over Platteville could both screw many teams over, and also be a lot of fun for outside observers!
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Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: merlecanlas on October 25, 2017, 03:40:03 PM
thanks Wally and Dave.  I thought there was a set criteria that each region had to use to rank their teams.  I had no idea that there was discretion within the regional ranking.  Thanks guys

There is criteria and not much discretion... but a RAC's job is to "advise" the national committee on how they would rank their respective regions. The national committee is made up of the chair of each RAC (unless it's men's lacrosse; don't get me started). So they look at their region and the criteria and go over and over and over it all to come up with their choices. The national committee may agree and may disagree and ultimately has final say. There are at least five "votes," so they get good at this. The first one is a practice probably done this week (Tuesday). There are the three in-season rankings and then there is the final ranking after the regular season is over that the national committee ultimately uses to select teams. It isn't an easy job. Many, many hours are spent on this - also depending on the sport. Football is pretty hard when there is so much less data (i.e. less games) to dissect and break down when doing this.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

merlecanlas

this is much more fun than the FBS model of four teams.  As a Mount fan, I'm pretty happy there is an OAC person co-chairing the North Region.  great job everyone!

wally_wabash

Quote from: bluestreak66 on October 25, 2017, 03:48:05 PM
What are the chances that there might be 3 MIAC teams in the field? I know it doesn't seem likely, but there could be a scenario where Whitewater wins out, CMU loses only to St. Johns, and finishes ahead of UWW by virtue of higher win percentage and H2H.
Needless to say, a Whitewater win over Platteville could both screw many teams over, and also be a lot of fun for outside observers!

Good question.  The Cobbers should always stay ranked ahead of Whitewater (one more pecking order problem for George Fox, actually), and could well wind up as the second at-large team in the region (after St. John's in your scenario).  But then the Cobbers have kind of a middling SOS (all of the boost they get from St. John's is negated by Carleton).  It'll depend on who else is available to select at that point in the voting process.  If they're on the board with something like Wheaton, CWRU, and Frostburg...I don't like their chances.  I think the Johnnies/Cobbers loser needs a lot of teams around the country to drop games over the next three weeks. 
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Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: merlecanlas on October 25, 2017, 03:54:03 PM
this is much more fun than the FBS model of four teams.  As a Mount fan, I'm pretty happy there is an OAC person co-chairing the North Region.  great job everyone!

Don't just assume that means Mount has a "friend" in the process. One thing I have learned over the years is that these individuals take their jobs seriously and while they may "fight" for who they think are the best teams, they respect the entire process tremendously to not jeopardize anything.

I should also mention that if a rep has a direct tie to a school (coach or admin), they have to remove themselves when their institution is being discussed. Not the case in your example - conference affiliation does not count - but worth keeping in mind.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

wm4

Switching to the top side of the regional rankings...who will the 4th #1 seed be?  I'm booking UMU, UMHB and UWO as locks.  Does is go to Delaware Valley, truly out of the East, or does it go to UST, the next highest ranked team? 


merlecanlas

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on October 25, 2017, 04:02:45 PM
Quote from: merlecanlas on October 25, 2017, 03:54:03 PM
this is much more fun than the FBS model of four teams.  As a Mount fan, I'm pretty happy there is an OAC person co-chairing the North Region.  great job everyone!

Don't just assume that means Mount has a "friend" in the process. One thing I have learned over the years is that these individuals take their jobs seriously and while they may "fight" for who they think are the best teams, they respect the entire process tremendously to not jeopardize anything.

I should also mention that if a rep has a direct tie to a school (coach or admin), they have to remove themselves when their institution is being discussed. Not the case in your example - conference affiliation does not count - but worth keeping in mind.

After last year, no Mount fan thinks we have a "friend" in the NCAA...wait...in the RCA or the national committee


Wally, do you make a prediction after the Regional Rankings come out?  The Berg killed me last week but this stuff is so intriguing

Thanks man

Pat Coleman

Quote from: wm4 on October 25, 2017, 04:04:26 PM
Switching to the top side of the regional rankings...who will the 4th #1 seed be?  I'm booking UMU, UMHB and UWO as locks.  Does is go to Delaware Valley, truly out of the East, or does it go to UST, the next highest ranked team?

The committee doesn't use our rankings in its process.
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jknezek

Quote from: wm4 on October 25, 2017, 04:04:26 PM
Switching to the top side of the regional rankings...who will the 4th #1 seed be?  I'm booking UMU, UMHB and UWO as locks.  Does is go to Delaware Valley, truly out of the East, or does it go to UST, the next highest ranked team?

The National Committee will decide. I have a hard time seeing UST with a loss getting a top seed over an undefeated Del Val. Del Val's SOS is already higher than St. Thomas and is likely to at least stay in this range with the last 2 teams cancelling each other out and this week's opponent around .500. St. Thomas's opponents are all around .500 now and unlikely to gain on that as they are not the top teams in the conference.

merlecanlas

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 25, 2017, 04:11:24 PM
Quote from: wm4 on October 25, 2017, 04:04:26 PM
Switching to the top side of the regional rankings...who will the 4th #1 seed be?  I'm booking UMU, UMHB and UWO as locks.  Does is go to Delaware Valley, truly out of the East, or does it go to UST, the next highest ranked team?

The committee doesn't use our rankings in its process.

are you saying that you don't think Mount, UMHB and UWO are locks as #1 seeds?  or just the 4th one seed?