FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

Started by admin, August 16, 2005, 05:13:40 AM

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Pat Coleman

Here's a 2005 preseason poll:
2005 Preseason ODAC Football Coaches' Poll
1. Bridgewater (6)
2. Hampden-Sydney (1)
3. Emory & Henry
4. Washington and Lee
5. Randolph-Macon
6. Guilford
7. Catholic

2006: Bridgewater, the five-time defending ODAC Champions, topped the poll after receiving all seven first-place votes for 49 points. The Generals posted 40 points and were followed in the voting by Hampden-Sydney (33), Guilford (29), Randolph-Macon (23), Catholic (11) and Emory & Henry (11).

2009:
1. Hampden-Sydney (2) 44 pts.
2. Emory & Henry (2) 38 pts.
3. Bridgewater (2) 36 pts.
4. Randolph-Macon (1) 27 pts.
5. Catholic 23 pts.
6. Washington and Lee 20 pts.
7. Guilford 8 pts.
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Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

jknezek

I'll add that data in tomorrow and re-run the numbers. Thanks for finding it.

jknezek

OK. Now that we have all the data things make much more sense. When looking for an average reoccuring bias the numbers look like this:

Kickoff Average Bias                       Coaches Average Bias    
W&L   0.625                                      RMC   0.625
Catholic   0.5                                     Catholic   0.5
Guilford   0.375                                     W&L   0.5
RMC   0.25                                     Guilford   0.125
HSC   -0.125                                     HSC   -0.25
Bwater   -0.5                                     E&H   -0.75
E&H   -1                                        Bwater   -0.75

Kickoff clearly does better with RMC, while the coaches do better with W&L and Catholic. It is pretty consistent for both that E&H and Bridgewater and to a very small degree, HSC, get the benefit of the doubt, W&L and Catholic, and to a small degree RMC and Guilford, do not. RMC had a couple years where the coaches poll had them a spot lower than Kickoff, and over time that added up. In raw numbers, RMC is the team the coaches and Kickoff disagree on most, with a difference of +3 (RMC less valued by the coaches). Bridgewater and Guilford are both -2 (higher valued by coaches), E&H is +2 (lower valued by the coaches).

Kickoff Absolute Miss Rearranged         Coaches Absolute Miss Rearranged   
Bwater   1                                                      Guilford   1.125
Catholic   1.25                                                      Catholic   1.25
Guilford   1.375                                                      Bridgewater   1.25
HSC   1.375                                                      RMC   1.375
RMC   1.5                                                      HSC   1.5
W&L   1.875                                                      W&L   1.75
E&H   2.5                                                      E&H   2.5

This data is more or less inline. We can see that in terms of absolute isses W&L and E&H are the hardest to predict for both Kickoff and coaches. The easiest to predict are also the same, if not quite the same order. Clearly in most years both Kickoff and the coaches have the same opinion. Who misses the most? Neither, total absolute misses are 86 by the coaches, 87 by Kickoff.

Kickoff   Over   Under Seasons   Coaches   Over   Under Seasons
Bwater   4   2      Bwater   5   2
HSC   3   3        HSC   4   2
W&L   2   5        W&L   3   5
E&H   5   2        E&H   5   2
RMC   2   3        RMC   2   4
Catholic   2   3      Catholic   2   3
Guilford   3   3      Guilford   3   3

Finally the over under by seasons. Bridgewater is the most overvalued as we've seen. W&L is the most under valued, though the coaches almost push RMC into that category. The coaches have fewer seasons where they correctly predict a team. Across the 56 possible correct positions (8 seasons of 7 teams) the coaches picked a correct position 11 times, Kickoff 14 times. Kickoff gets RMC and Catholic correct 3 out of 8 tries, the coaches only got Catholic correct 3 times. The coaches have never correctly predicted W&L, Kickoff got W&L and E&H correct one time each.

So, who does a better job based on this data? Marginally I'd go with Kickoff. The same teams are over and under valued, the same teams are hardest and easiest to predict. Small variations by how much each group misses by is the major difference, rather than any overall great success or total failure.





jknezek

#15978
One more week. Watching the games last night just got me ready for some D3 football. I've got my pick'em in, I've read Kickoff, I've played with some numbers for no apparent reason, I've written some smart posts and some dumb ones. Heck, I've read almost every post on the site regardless of region or conference just because it was about D3 football. For crying out loud I even responded to something on the WIAC boards... in defense of the WIAC. I really need the season to start.

Of course, I'm really excited because W&L and RMC open against real opponents. If I was an HSC or Bridgewater fan, I wouldn't be as thrilled for that first week scrimmage :)

BCQBFAN

Bridgewater is scrimmaging at Averett today.

jknezek

Should I make the obvious joke about how HSC does the same next Saturday while Bridgewater gets a second scrimmage against St. Vincent. :)

Oops, too late.

hasanova

Ferrum comes to Guilford to scrimmage the Quakes at 4:45 this afternoon.

abnrgr

HASA
And what happened when the mutants of Hank Norton got off the bus? I remember at Lee-McRae scuffles and fist fights broke out between Panthers and Bobcats as soon as they within range of each other.

Low the poor bastard that rolled off into the opposing side of the field.

I loved hate games
Never shall I leave a fallen comrade

abnrgr

I am not organized enough to do the pick ems so is anybody running with this dog? JKnezak?

Our statistical genius!! :)
Never shall I leave a fallen comrade

jknezek

It's up in the ODAC pick'em topic in the pick'em section courtesy of HSCTiger74. Get your picks in as I defend my title. That's right, both the Generals and the alumni were the ODAC champs last year. Neither the team nor I will refer to post season results...  :)

hasanova

Quote from: abnrgr on August 31, 2013, 01:28:03 AM
HASA
And what happened when the mutants of Hank Norton got off the bus? I remember at Lee-McRae scuffles and fist fights broke out between Panthers and Bobcats as soon as they within range of each other.

Low the poor bastard that rolled off into the opposing side of the field.

I loved hate games
abnrgr, I arrived late (about 5:10) and witnessed no melees or police tape around the three buses from Ferrum, so I have to assume cooler heads prevailed.  The teams looked fairly even in the scrimmage, with perhaps a slight edge to FC on offense.  In Guilford's defense, however, it was a scrimmage, so I didn't see GC's presumed starter at QB and once when FC scored, GC kicked off to the Panthers.   I saw each team score three TDs.

Scots13

jknezek....I have some more trivial information on W&L for you.

Somehow, someway I got to reading a book on the history of Maryville College last night and found out that Dr. Isaac Anderson, a native Virginian, "later attended" and I presume graduated from Liberty Hall Academy, later renamed Washington and Lee.  He came down here to Tennessee in 1802, to start preaching and in 1819, founded Southern and Western Theological Seminary which was renamed Maryville College shortly after.

Thank God for W&L. I think I have a new favorite ODAC team going into this season..
Where Chilhowee's lofty mountains pierce the southern blue, proudly stands our Alma Mater
NOBLE, GRAND, and TRUE.
TO THE HILL!

jknezek

Never knew that. But yes, Augusta Academy is generally accepted as the early form of Liberty Hall Academy, later Washington College, later Washington and Lee College, and finally Washington and Lee University. The 1749 founding of Augusta Academy is the accepted founding date for W&L, but there have been a few scholars over the years who dispute that Augusta Academy actually ran continuously until renaming itself Liberty Hall in 1776 and moving to Lexington, where it eventually became W&L. So some academics think W&L's claim as one of the oldest schools of higher education in the U.S. is somewhat embellished.

I never looked into it and tend to accept that both sides probably have some truth. I also hardly think it matters, though I always enjoyed visiting the late 1700s ruins of Liberty Hall that stand near the current W&L athletic complex. The couple remaining walls, an area just outside of which was used as the student football tailgate back when such things were allowed, always felt more genuine to me than the Colonnade, which is the typical face of W&L.

Scots13

Embellished or not, still impressive. HSC founded in 1776 and W&L at least 20+ years earlier...the ODAC has some history to be proud of.
If I was a General I'd stick with the 1749 date. Makes it sound just a little more B.A.
Where Chilhowee's lofty mountains pierce the southern blue, proudly stands our Alma Mater
NOBLE, GRAND, and TRUE.
TO THE HILL!

tigerfanalso

HSC was actually founded in 1775.
Let's pull for the ODAC to go undefeated in the OOC portion of the schedule.