2017 Playoffs

Started by Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat, October 31, 2017, 01:17:58 PM

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HansenRatings

Quote from: CruGuy on November 09, 2017, 12:03:53 PM
Is 99.6 vs 99.9 the difference between three standard deviations and four? That seems insignificant and starkly different at the same time.

It could be a few different things. Could be that Atomic Football doesn't use a normal distribution for their win probabilities, and instead use something with smaller tails. It's a mostly meaningless difference when you get to those extremes, because the win probabilities are just estimates anyways. There's a reason sites like fivethirtyeight.com don't use decimal points in their projections.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

merlecanlas

I find UW-O having the nation's strongest schedule laughable, but it's time for seriousness.

http://www.newsadvance.com/sports/local/virginia-university-of-lynchburg-football-coach-part-ways/article_a9b17b97-8562-5d92-9700-3ebdf4a1c365.html

the coach for UWO's 2nd OOC (Jimmy Joe, what a name) was just fired for being 0-8 on the year.  Does this information get to the NCAA/RAC prior to ranking?  It was tough finding that W-L record

emma17

What team does have the strongest schedule this year?

Pat Coleman

VUL not being an NCAA school means I doubt that info naturally sits in the NCAA database but considering UWO isn't up for an at-large bid or anything, I don't think it's needed.
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merlecanlas

#64
Quote from: emma17 on November 09, 2017, 01:10:16 PM
What team does have the strongest schedule this year?

UWW, no bye week or lower level NAIA or USCAA team on the schedule.  But actual D3 teams, and decent ones at that

jknezek

Quote from: emma17 on November 09, 2017, 01:10:16 PM
What team does have the strongest schedule this year?

Kind of hard to argue with Wash U. Their opponents are 58-23 on the season, only 2 are below .500 and both those are 3-4, and 4-5 types, and 4 are possibly heading to the playoffs. Somehow those 4 don't count UWW. Seriously, they have 2 teams on their schedule at 9-0, 1 at 8-1, 2 at 7-2...

I get not all of them play in a WIAC style league, but that was a brutal schedule no matter how you cut it. Of course, it's the kind of schedule only an independent can put together...

merlecanlas

Quote from: jknezek on November 09, 2017, 01:25:30 PM
Quote from: emma17 on November 09, 2017, 01:10:16 PM
What team does have the strongest schedule this year?

Kind of hard to argue with Wash U. Their opponents are 58-23 on the season, only 2 are below .500 and both those are 3-4, and 4-5 types, and 4 are possibly heading to the playoffs. Somehow those 4 don't count UWW. Seriously, they have 2 teams on their schedule at 9-0, 1 at 8-1, 2 at 7-2...

I get not all of them play in a WIAC style league, but that was a brutal schedule no matter how you cut it. Of course, it's the kind of schedule only an independent can put together...

playing the toughest schedule with a losing record is a strange badge of honor.

UWW played two playoff teams in non-conference and Wash U
UWO played JCU and a bye and a high school JV team

whose schedule was tougher?

makes me sick to stand up for UWW, but UWO has a joke schedule masquerading as a tough schedule

jknezek

Quote from: merlecanlas on November 09, 2017, 01:30:30 PM
Quote from: jknezek on November 09, 2017, 01:25:30 PM
Quote from: emma17 on November 09, 2017, 01:10:16 PM
What team does have the strongest schedule this year?

Kind of hard to argue with Wash U. Their opponents are 58-23 on the season, only 2 are below .500 and both those are 3-4, and 4-5 types, and 4 are possibly heading to the playoffs. Somehow those 4 don't count UWW. Seriously, they have 2 teams on their schedule at 9-0, 1 at 8-1, 2 at 7-2...

I get not all of them play in a WIAC style league, but that was a brutal schedule no matter how you cut it. Of course, it's the kind of schedule only an independent can put together...

playing the toughest schedule with a losing record is a strange badge of honor.

UWW played two playoff teams in non-conference and Wash U
UWO played JCU and a bye and a high school JV team

whose schedule was tougher?

makes me sick to stand up for UWW, but UWO has a joke schedule masquerading as a tough schedule

Between UWW and UWO it's UWW and not even close in my opinion. Who has been saying different? But I still go with Wash U overall.

HansenRatings

Quote from: merlecanlas on November 09, 2017, 01:30:30 PM
Quote from: jknezek on November 09, 2017, 01:25:30 PM
Quote from: emma17 on November 09, 2017, 01:10:16 PM
What team does have the strongest schedule this year?

Kind of hard to argue with Wash U. Their opponents are 58-23 on the season, only 2 are below .500 and both those are 3-4, and 4-5 types, and 4 are possibly heading to the playoffs. Somehow those 4 don't count UWW. Seriously, they have 2 teams on their schedule at 9-0, 1 at 8-1, 2 at 7-2...

I get not all of them play in a WIAC style league, but that was a brutal schedule no matter how you cut it. Of course, it's the kind of schedule only an independent can put together...

playing the toughest schedule with a losing record is a strange badge of honor.

UWW played two playoff teams in non-conference and Wash U
UWO played JCU and a bye and a high school JV team

whose schedule was tougher?

makes me sick to stand up for UWW, but UWO has a joke schedule masquerading as a tough schedule

To call UWO's schedule a "joke" is to be dramatically misinformed about the balance of power in DIII.

Not considering home/away Wash U. probably has my vote for toughest schedule, but considering that UWW played on the road against IWU & C-M, they probably had the tougher schedule. My model thinks UW-Stout and UW-Eau Claire's's schedules were the toughest in the country. Both played UST non-conference, and UWEC also played GFU. UWEC also had the misfortune of not getting to play against themselves in the WIAC.
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merlecanlas

Quote from: HansenRatings on November 09, 2017, 01:39:40 PM
Quote from: merlecanlas on November 09, 2017, 01:30:30 PM
Quote from: jknezek on November 09, 2017, 01:25:30 PM
Quote from: emma17 on November 09, 2017, 01:10:16 PM
What team does have the strongest schedule this year?

Kind of hard to argue with Wash U. Their opponents are 58-23 on the season, only 2 are below .500 and both those are 3-4, and 4-5 types, and 4 are possibly heading to the playoffs. Somehow those 4 don't count UWW. Seriously, they have 2 teams on their schedule at 9-0, 1 at 8-1, 2 at 7-2...

I get not all of them play in a WIAC style league, but that was a brutal schedule no matter how you cut it. Of course, it's the kind of schedule only an independent can put together...

playing the toughest schedule with a losing record is a strange badge of honor.

UWW played two playoff teams in non-conference and Wash U
UWO played JCU and a bye and a high school JV team

whose schedule was tougher?

makes me sick to stand up for UWW, but UWO has a joke schedule masquerading as a tough schedule

To call UWO's schedule a "joke" is to be dramatically misinformed about the balance of power in DIII.

Not considering home/away Wash U. probably has my vote for toughest schedule, but considering that UWW played on the road against IWU & C-M, they probably had the tougher schedule. My model thinks UW-Stout and UW-Eau Claire's's schedules were the toughest in the country. Both played UST non-conference, and UWEC also played GFU. UWEC also had the misfortune of not getting to play against themselves in the WIAC.

of course UWO has a tough schedule due to the WIAC, but their OOC leaves a ton to be desired.  JCU was a good game, but that will look bad against Mount vs JCU, the rest is a bye and a team made up of D3boards posters

thunderdog

Quote from: HansenRatings on November 09, 2017, 01:39:40 PM
UWEC also had the misfortune of not getting to play against themselves in the WIAC.

That's an instant classic right there Logan

wally_wabash

Quote from: merlecanlas on November 09, 2017, 12:58:41 PM
the coach for UWO's 2nd OOC (Jimmy Joe, what a name) was just fired for being 0-8 on the year.  Does this information get to the NCAA/RAC prior to ranking?  It was tough finding that W-L record

Can't believe there's any axe left to grind on this. 

Mount Union lost a game in 2016 and lost their right to host games in that season's tournament.  Then they lost in the semifinals which means that they lost their previous year's championship record protection to the teams that went farther...of which one is Oshkosh.  It's a full year process before Mount Union can get that protection back.  Unless they get help, the Raiders are going to have to advance to Salem by winning one game on the road.  That's just the way it's gonna be no matter how loud you want to yell about Va-Lynchburg. 

Also, I'm still waiting for you to tell me who Oshkosh was supposed to play.  You've deftly ignored that. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

merlecanlas

#72
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 09, 2017, 02:10:10 PM
Quote from: merlecanlas on November 09, 2017, 12:58:41 PM
the coach for UWO's 2nd OOC (Jimmy Joe, what a name) was just fired for being 0-8 on the year.  Does this information get to the NCAA/RAC prior to ranking?  It was tough finding that W-L record

Can't believe there's any axe left to grind on this. 

Mount Union lost a game in 2016 and lost their right to host games in that season's tournament.  Then they lost in the semifinals which means that they lost their previous year's championship record protection to the teams that went farther...of which one is Oshkosh.  It's a full year process before Mount Union can get that protection back.  Unless they get help, the Raiders are going to have to advance to Salem by winning one game on the road.  That's just the way it's gonna be no matter how loud you want to yell about Va-Lynchburg. 

Also, I'm still waiting for you to tell me who Oshkosh was supposed to play.  You've deftly ignored that.

Mount will go on the road, but I dont have access to the D3 composite schedule. But I would be shocked if there wasn't a team or two open.  But they didnt schedule anybody and I accept that, they chose to play an inter-mural team.  But a schedule with UVL and a bye shouldn't be praised as a meat grinder.  Should 10 conference teams start scheduling the College of Faith or Stark State for their non conference game?  UWO's choice of OOC is gross

wally_wabash

Quote from: merlecanlas on November 09, 2017, 02:14:50 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 09, 2017, 02:10:10 PM
Quote from: merlecanlas on November 09, 2017, 12:58:41 PM
the coach for UWO's 2nd OOC (Jimmy Joe, what a name) was just fired for being 0-8 on the year.  Does this information get to the NCAA/RAC prior to ranking?  It was tough finding that W-L record

Can't believe there's any axe left to grind on this. 

Mount Union lost a game in 2016 and lost their right to host games in that season's tournament.  Then they lost in the semifinals which means that they lost their previous year's championship record protection to the teams that went farther...of which one is Oshkosh.  It's a full year process before Mount Union can get that protection back.  Unless they get help, the Raiders are going to have to advance to Salem by winning one game on the road.  That's just the way it's gonna be no matter how loud you want to yell about Va-Lynchburg. 

Also, I'm still waiting for you to tell me who Oshkosh was supposed to play.  You've deftly ignored that.

Mount will go on the road, but I dont have access to the D3 composite schedule. But I would be shocked if there wasn't a team or two open.  But they didnt schedule anybody and I accept that, they chose to play an inter-mural team.  But a schedule with UVL and a bye shouldn't be praised as a meat grinder.  Should 10 conference teams start scheduling the College of Faith or Stark State for their non conference game?  UWO's choice of OOC is gross

You keep saying this like it was UW-O's deliberate choice to not play 10 games and to have a game against UVa-Lynchburg.  There were open teams?  Who was open?  And then who among those teams with open dates were willing to go play Oshkosh?  You go find that stuff out and get back to us.  I'll wait. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

bluestreak66

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 09, 2017, 02:30:25 PM
Quote from: merlecanlas on November 09, 2017, 02:14:50 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 09, 2017, 02:10:10 PM
Quote from: merlecanlas on November 09, 2017, 12:58:41 PM
the coach for UWO's 2nd OOC (Jimmy Joe, what a name) was just fired for being 0-8 on the year.  Does this information get to the NCAA/RAC prior to ranking?  It was tough finding that W-L record

Can't believe there's any axe left to grind on this. 

Mount Union lost a game in 2016 and lost their right to host games in that season's tournament.  Then they lost in the semifinals which means that they lost their previous year's championship record protection to the teams that went farther...of which one is Oshkosh.  It's a full year process before Mount Union can get that protection back.  Unless they get help, the Raiders are going to have to advance to Salem by winning one game on the road.  That's just the way it's gonna be no matter how loud you want to yell about Va-Lynchburg. 

Also, I'm still waiting for you to tell me who Oshkosh was supposed to play.  You've deftly ignored that.

Mount will go on the road, but I dont have access to the D3 composite schedule. But I would be shocked if there wasn't a team or two open.  But they didnt schedule anybody and I accept that, they chose to play an inter-mural team.  But a schedule with UVL and a bye shouldn't be praised as a meat grinder.  Should 10 conference teams start scheduling the College of Faith or Stark State for their non conference game?  UWO's choice of OOC is gross

You keep saying this like it was UW-O's deliberate choice to not play 10 games and to have a game against UVa-Lynchburg.  There were open teams?  Who was open?  And then who among those teams with open dates were willing to go play Oshkosh?  You go find that stuff out and get back to us.  I'll wait.

merlecanles, the thing you forget is UW-O literally waited until the last possible minute to schedule VAL. I had noticed sometime in May that they only had 1 noncon, so I kind of kept track of it all off season. I don't think they added Lynchburg until after camp had already started. I think they did make every effort to round out their schedule with D3 opponents, but it takes two to tango, and if no one was willing to play, their hands were tied. One team they might have been able to fit was UW Stout, who shared an open date, but then people would be complaining that they were playing a conference opponent twice. At the end of the day, the probably figured that at least they had a chance to play a game against a different team, and get their guys some reps. It wasn't the situation I'm sure they wanted, especially knowing how much it would hurt their SOS, but they really didn't have any other option.
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