Author Topic: The Big Dance  (Read 53226 times)

Offline Falconer

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 345
  • Karma: +17/-14
    • View Profile
The Big Dance
« on: November 06, 2017, 02:05:01 pm »
Somebody needed to start a thread on the tournament & bracketology, so here it is...

Offline Falconer

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 345
  • Karma: +17/-14
    • View Profile
Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2017, 02:23:09 pm »
My first observations.

(1) Very glad to see that Lycoming & Messiah don't have to play for a third time for a long time, if they both win out to that point. If that happens, it would be a national semi-final. When Etown was (a) better than they are lately and (b) in the Commonwealth Conference, sometimes Messiah & Etown would have to play 3 times. That wasn't good: too much familiarity on both sides, and it meant essentially (since both schools are very close geographically) that a third game would take place fairly early in the tournament. I don't recall that it actually happened often (perhaps just once or twice), but in theory it could have happened fairly often.

(2) Calvin and Chicago could be meeting in the Sweet Sixteen. That seems harsh, both ways.

(3) Somewhat surprised that NPU got one of the two byes. I wonder: would Messiah have been given one, if they'd beaten Lycoming Saturday night? Or, should one have gone to Trinity? I have no argument with Tufts getting one. However, if Midd had scored on that close play in the second half and tied Tufts, perhaps winning the AQ on PKs, would Tufts have gotten a bye?

(4) We could see a Sweet Sixteen with the nearly flawless Tufts defense against the high scoring Rowan offense. If that happens, it should be fun to watch--and certainly another harsh draw, though Tufts obviously has an easier path to that point. I assume that if Rowan had beaten RU-N, they wouldn't be lined up to face Tufts that early.

(5) Lycoming vs Drew in the second round? That's also pretty harsh both ways. If it transpires, it will be interesting to see that battle.


Offline bestfancle

  • Second-stringer
  • **
  • Posts: 92
  • Karma: +5/-0
    • View Profile
Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2017, 02:25:14 pm »
I really don't think Calvin makes it out. Whatever team wins out of JCU and OWU will beat Calvin, IMO.

Offline Falconer

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 345
  • Karma: +17/-14
    • View Profile
Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2017, 02:41:41 pm »
I really don't think Calvin makes it out. Whatever team wins out of JCU and OWU will beat Calvin, IMO.

I think Calvin is as good as their W-L record suggests. I saw them vs Messiah in the tournament last fall. Yes, the Falcons could have put them away in the first half (they got one and almost two more, outshooting the Knights 13-1), but Calvin stormed back, dominated the second half and won in 2OT. Both goal scorers are back--and juniors, not seniors. They also return most of the other pieces from last year, including keeper Van Ryn and a great defender, Vegter, who is probably the best defender I've seen anywhere in the past two years.

Don't underestimate them simply b/c their conference is so weak. They are the real deal, Final Four quality. I doubt Chicago will beat them.

Offline rudy

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 310
  • Karma: +13/-4
    • View Profile
Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2017, 02:42:21 pm »
My first observations.

(1) Very glad to see that Lycoming & Messiah don't have to play for a third time for a long time, if they both win out to that point. If that happens, it would be a national semi-final. When Etown was (a) better than they are lately and (b) in the Commonwealth Conference, sometimes Messiah & Etown would have to play 3 times. That wasn't good: too much familiarity on both sides, and it meant essentially (since both schools are very close geographically) that a third game would take place fairly early in the tournament. I don't recall that it actually happened often (perhaps just once or twice), but in theory it could have happened fairly often.

(2) Calvin and Chicago could be meeting in the Sweet Sixteen. That seems harsh, both ways.

(3) Somewhat surprised that NPU got one of the two byes. I wonder: would Messiah have been given one, if they'd beaten Lycoming Saturday night? Or, should one have gone to Trinity? I have no argument with Tufts getting one. However, if Midd had scored on that close play in the second half and tied Tufts, perhaps winning the AQ on PKs, would Tufts have gotten a bye?

(4) We could see a Sweet Sixteen with the nearly flawless Tufts defense against the high scoring Rowan offense. If that happens, it should be fun to watch--and certainly another harsh draw, though Tufts obviously has an easier path to that point. I assume that if Rowan had beaten RU-N, they wouldn't be lined up to face Tufts that early.

(5) Lycoming vs Drew in the second round? That's also pretty harsh both ways. If it transpires, it will be interesting to see that battle.

Lyco in Tufts side of bracket too. I think Messiah has the easier path to final 4.  Messiah probably can't host because women's team is hosting first round.

Offline Falconer

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 345
  • Karma: +17/-14
    • View Profile
Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2017, 02:45:12 pm »
My first observations.

(1) Very glad to see that Lycoming & Messiah don't have to play for a third time for a long time, if they both win out to that point. If that happens, it would be a national semi-final. When Etown was (a) better than they are lately and (b) in the Commonwealth Conference, sometimes Messiah & Etown would have to play 3 times. That wasn't good: too much familiarity on both sides, and it meant essentially (since both schools are very close geographically) that a third game would take place fairly early in the tournament. I don't recall that it actually happened often (perhaps just once or twice), but in theory it could have happened fairly often.

(2) Calvin and Chicago could be meeting in the Sweet Sixteen. That seems harsh, both ways.

(3) Somewhat surprised that NPU got one of the two byes. I wonder: would Messiah have been given one, if they'd beaten Lycoming Saturday night? Or, should one have gone to Trinity? I have no argument with Tufts getting one. However, if Midd had scored on that close play in the second half and tied Tufts, perhaps winning the AQ on PKs, would Tufts have gotten a bye?

(4) We could see a Sweet Sixteen with the nearly flawless Tufts defense against the high scoring Rowan offense. If that happens, it should be fun to watch--and certainly another harsh draw, though Tufts obviously has an easier path to that point. I assume that if Rowan had beaten RU-N, they wouldn't be lined up to face Tufts that early.

(5) Lycoming vs Drew in the second round? That's also pretty harsh both ways. If it transpires, it will be interesting to see that battle.

Lyco in Tufts side of bracket too. I think Messiah has the easier path to final 4.  Messiah probably can't host because women's team is hosting first round.

I agree Messiah has an easier draw than Lycoming. I don't know if that means they are still rated higher, but perhaps they are. The men can't host b/c the women are. Last year they both hosted, but only b/c the women had a bye. Otherwise the women would have traveled the first weekend. The good news here (for the men) is that they should host the second weekend, if they take care of business this weekend in Buffalo.

Online EB2319

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 208
  • Karma: +13/-3
    • View Profile
Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2017, 02:50:36 pm »
Two 1st round games I'd most like to watch are:
Rowan/JHU
Dickinson/Emory

Offline Dave B

  • Second-stringer
  • **
  • Posts: 36
  • Karma: +1/-0
    • View Profile
Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2017, 02:57:27 pm »
My first observations.

(1) Very glad to see that Lycoming & Messiah don't have to play for a third time for a long time, if they both win out to that point. If that happens, it would be a national semi-final. When Etown was (a) better than they are lately and (b) in the Commonwealth Conference, sometimes Messiah & Etown would have to play 3 times. That wasn't good: too much familiarity on both sides, and it meant essentially (since both schools are very close geographically) that a third game would take place fairly early in the tournament. I don't recall that it actually happened often (perhaps just once or twice), but in theory it could have happened fairly often.

(2) Calvin and Chicago could be meeting in the Sweet Sixteen. That seems harsh, both ways.

(3) Somewhat surprised that NPU got one of the two byes. I wonder: would Messiah have been given one, if they'd beaten Lycoming Saturday night? Or, should one have gone to Trinity? I have no argument with Tufts getting one. However, if Midd had scored on that close play in the second half and tied Tufts, perhaps winning the AQ on PKs, would Tufts have gotten a bye?

(4) We could see a Sweet Sixteen with the nearly flawless Tufts defense against the high scoring Rowan offense. If that happens, it should be fun to watch--and certainly another harsh draw, though Tufts obviously has an easier path to that point. I assume that if Rowan had beaten RU-N, they wouldn't be lined up to face Tufts that early.

(5) Lycoming vs Drew in the second round? That's also pretty harsh both ways. If it transpires, it will be interesting to see that battle.

Lyco in Tufts side of bracket too. I think Messiah has the easier path to final 4.  Messiah probably can't host because women's team is hosting first round.

I agree Messiah has an easier draw than Lycoming. I don't know if that means they are still rated higher, but perhaps they are. The men can't host b/c the women are. Last year they both hosted, but only b/c the women had a bye. Otherwise the women would have traveled the first weekend. The good news here (for the men) is that they should host the second weekend, if they take care of business this weekend in Buffalo.

Typically, if both the men's and women's teams are eligible to host, the men get the even years and the women get the odd (unless one team has a bye).  That usually goes for the second weekend as well.

I also agree that Messiah has the easier path, at least on paper.  Lycoming v Drew (should they make it) will be a tough test.

Offline Dave B

  • Second-stringer
  • **
  • Posts: 36
  • Karma: +1/-0
    • View Profile
Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2017, 03:04:06 pm »
Two 1st round games I'd most like to watch are:
Rowan/JHU
Dickinson/Emory

I'm looking forward to see the Drew/F&M game.  Haven't seen either team in person yet.

Offline Christan Shirk

  • Global Moderator
  • Second-stringer
  • *****
  • Posts: 199
  • Karma: +40/-5
    • View Profile
    • D3soccer.com
Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2017, 03:04:50 pm »
My first observations.

(1) Very glad to see that Lycoming & Messiah don't have to play for a third time for a long time, if they both win out to that point. If that happens, it would be a national semi-final. When Etown was (a) better than they are lately and (b) in the Commonwealth Conference, sometimes Messiah & Etown would have to play 3 times. That wasn't good: too much familiarity on both sides, and it meant essentially (since both schools are very close geographically) that a third game would take place fairly early in the tournament. I don't recall that it actually happened often (perhaps just once or twice), but in theory it could have happened fairly often.

(2) Calvin and Chicago could be meeting in the Sweet Sixteen. That seems harsh, both ways.

(3) Somewhat surprised that NPU got one of the two byes. I wonder: would Messiah have been given one, if they'd beaten Lycoming Saturday night? Or, should one have gone to Trinity? I have no argument with Tufts getting one. However, if Midd had scored on that close play in the second half and tied Tufts, perhaps winning the AQ on PKs, would Tufts have gotten a bye?

(4) We could see a Sweet Sixteen with the nearly flawless Tufts defense against the high scoring Rowan offense. If that happens, it should be fun to watch--and certainly another harsh draw, though Tufts obviously has an easier path to that point. I assume that if Rowan had beaten RU-N, they wouldn't be lined up to face Tufts that early.

(5) Lycoming vs Drew in the second round? That's also pretty harsh both ways. If it transpires, it will be interesting to see that battle.

Lyco in Tufts side of bracket too. I think Messiah has the easier path to final 4.  Messiah probably can't host because women's team is hosting first round.

I agree Messiah has an easier draw than Lycoming. I don't know if that means they are still rated higher, but perhaps they are. The men can't host b/c the women are. Last year they both hosted, but only b/c the women had a bye. Otherwise the women would have traveled the first weekend. The good news here (for the men) is that they should host the second weekend, if they take care of business this weekend in Buffalo.

Typically, if both the men's and women's teams are eligible to host, the men get the even years and the women get the odd (unless one team has a bye).  That usually goes for the second weekend as well.

I also agree that Messiah has the easier path, at least on paper.  Lycoming v Drew (should they make it) will be a tough test.

In even numbered years, men have hosting priority for the 1st/2nd Rounds and women have hosting priority for Sectionals.

In odd numbered years, like this year, that flip-flops: women have hosting priority for the 1st/2nd Rounds and men have hosting priority for Sectionals.

So if the Messiah men were seeded high enough to host, they couldn't have hosted this coming weekend (barring lack of other options or maybe getting one of the two 1st Round byes).  But if both Messiah men and women advance to sections and would both be the highest seed, the men would get to host over the women.
Christan Shirk
Special Consultant and Advisor
D3soccer.com

Online EB2319

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 208
  • Karma: +13/-3
    • View Profile
Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2017, 03:09:04 pm »
Two 1st round games I'd most like to watch are:
Rowan/JHU
Dickinson/Emory

I'm looking forward to see the Drew/F&M game.  Haven't seen either team in person yet.

I'd love to see Drew/Lycoming, so hopefully both win first round.

Offline Dave B

  • Second-stringer
  • **
  • Posts: 36
  • Karma: +1/-0
    • View Profile
Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2017, 03:12:26 pm »
My first observations.

(1) Very glad to see that Lycoming & Messiah don't have to play for a third time for a long time, if they both win out to that point. If that happens, it would be a national semi-final. When Etown was (a) better than they are lately and (b) in the Commonwealth Conference, sometimes Messiah & Etown would have to play 3 times. That wasn't good: too much familiarity on both sides, and it meant essentially (since both schools are very close geographically) that a third game would take place fairly early in the tournament. I don't recall that it actually happened often (perhaps just once or twice), but in theory it could have happened fairly often.

(2) Calvin and Chicago could be meeting in the Sweet Sixteen. That seems harsh, both ways.

(3) Somewhat surprised that NPU got one of the two byes. I wonder: would Messiah have been given one, if they'd beaten Lycoming Saturday night? Or, should one have gone to Trinity? I have no argument with Tufts getting one. However, if Midd had scored on that close play in the second half and tied Tufts, perhaps winning the AQ on PKs, would Tufts have gotten a bye?

(4) We could see a Sweet Sixteen with the nearly flawless Tufts defense against the high scoring Rowan offense. If that happens, it should be fun to watch--and certainly another harsh draw, though Tufts obviously has an easier path to that point. I assume that if Rowan had beaten RU-N, they wouldn't be lined up to face Tufts that early.

(5) Lycoming vs Drew in the second round? That's also pretty harsh both ways. If it transpires, it will be interesting to see that battle.

Lyco in Tufts side of bracket too. I think Messiah has the easier path to final 4.  Messiah probably can't host because women's team is hosting first round.

I agree Messiah has an easier draw than Lycoming. I don't know if that means they are still rated higher, but perhaps they are. The men can't host b/c the women are. Last year they both hosted, but only b/c the women had a bye. Otherwise the women would have traveled the first weekend. The good news here (for the men) is that they should host the second weekend, if they take care of business this weekend in Buffalo.

Typically, if both the men's and women's teams are eligible to host, the men get the even years and the women get the odd (unless one team has a bye).  That usually goes for the second weekend as well.

I also agree that Messiah has the easier path, at least on paper.  Lycoming v Drew (should they make it) will be a tough test.

In even numbered years, men have hosting priority for the 1st/2nd Rounds and women have hosting priority for Sectionals.

In odd numbered years, like this year, that flip-flops: women have hosting priority for the 1st/2nd Rounds and men have hosting priority for Sectionals.

So if the Messiah men were seeded high enough to host, they couldn't have hosted this coming weekend (barring lack of other options or maybe getting one of the two 1st Round byes).  But if both Messiah men and women advance to sections and would both be the highest seed, the men would get to host over the women.

I hope that is true (that the men would get the second weekend), but last year the men hosted the 1st and 2nd weekend and the women traveled the whole way to the Final 4.  Maybe the women weren't the highest remaining seed for sectionals?

Offline Dave B

  • Second-stringer
  • **
  • Posts: 36
  • Karma: +1/-0
    • View Profile
Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2017, 03:19:06 pm »
My first observations.

(1) Very glad to see that Lycoming & Messiah don't have to play for a third time for a long time, if they both win out to that point. If that happens, it would be a national semi-final. When Etown was (a) better than they are lately and (b) in the Commonwealth Conference, sometimes Messiah & Etown would have to play 3 times. That wasn't good: too much familiarity on both sides, and it meant essentially (since both schools are very close geographically) that a third game would take place fairly early in the tournament. I don't recall that it actually happened often (perhaps just once or twice), but in theory it could have happened fairly often.

(2) Calvin and Chicago could be meeting in the Sweet Sixteen. That seems harsh, both ways.

(3) Somewhat surprised that NPU got one of the two byes. I wonder: would Messiah have been given one, if they'd beaten Lycoming Saturday night? Or, should one have gone to Trinity? I have no argument with Tufts getting one. However, if Midd had scored on that close play in the second half and tied Tufts, perhaps winning the AQ on PKs, would Tufts have gotten a bye?

(4) We could see a Sweet Sixteen with the nearly flawless Tufts defense against the high scoring Rowan offense. If that happens, it should be fun to watch--and certainly another harsh draw, though Tufts obviously has an easier path to that point. I assume that if Rowan had beaten RU-N, they wouldn't be lined up to face Tufts that early.

(5) Lycoming vs Drew in the second round? That's also pretty harsh both ways. If it transpires, it will be interesting to see that battle.

Lyco in Tufts side of bracket too. I think Messiah has the easier path to final 4.  Messiah probably can't host because women's team is hosting first round.

I agree Messiah has an easier draw than Lycoming. I don't know if that means they are still rated higher, but perhaps they are. The men can't host b/c the women are. Last year they both hosted, but only b/c the women had a bye. Otherwise the women would have traveled the first weekend. The good news here (for the men) is that they should host the second weekend, if they take care of business this weekend in Buffalo.

Typically, if both the men's and women's teams are eligible to host, the men get the even years and the women get the odd (unless one team has a bye).  That usually goes for the second weekend as well.

I also agree that Messiah has the easier path, at least on paper.  Lycoming v Drew (should they make it) will be a tough test.

In even numbered years, men have hosting priority for the 1st/2nd Rounds and women have hosting priority for Sectionals.

In odd numbered years, like this year, that flip-flops: women have hosting priority for the 1st/2nd Rounds and men have hosting priority for Sectionals.

So if the Messiah men were seeded high enough to host, they couldn't have hosted this coming weekend (barring lack of other options or maybe getting one of the two 1st Round byes).  But if both Messiah men and women advance to sections and would both be the highest seed, the men would get to host over the women.

I hope that is true (that the men would get the second weekend), but last year the men hosted the 1st and 2nd weekend and the women traveled the whole way to the Final 4.  Maybe the women weren't the highest remaining seed for sectionals?

I should qualify that with "should they make it".    Upsets do happen.

Offline Gregory Sager

  • Hall of Fame
  • All-American
  • ********
  • Posts: 20915
  • Karma: +2367/-764
  • North Park Vikings: Nat'l champs, 1978-79-80-85-87
    • View Profile
Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2017, 03:34:49 pm »
(3) Somewhat surprised that NPU got one of the two byes. I wonder: would Messiah have been given one, if they'd beaten Lycoming Saturday night? Or, should one have gone to Trinity?

I'm not so much of a homer as to discount the possibility that NPU might have gotten the bye in part due to geography. The sprawling western half of the bracket stretches from Virginia to Texas to California to Oregon to the entire midwest (Minnesota to Ohio, for practical purposes) and Kentucky. It even includes a couple of strays from Pennsylvania, PSU-Abington and Dickinson. It's a vastly different situation than is the case for the eastern half of the bracket, which is confined to the comparatively small northeastern corner of the country east of the Allegheny River and north of the Potomac River. Nothing unusual about that; it's a fact of life in all D3 sports.

Given that the western bracket covers about 95% of the country, it makes sense to give the bye (and, thus, the #1 seed) to a school that's: a) centrally located in terms of the 31 teams involved; b) close to a major airport; and c) has plenty of hotel rooms near campus. North Park obviously fits all three criteria, since the city of Chicago is the logical hub for a bracket half that stretches from Pennsylvania to Georgia to California to Oregon but is mostly concentrated in the midwest. Also, North Park is an 11-mile, half-hour drive from O'Hare, which is accessible from every medium-sized airport in the country, and there is plenty of hotel space in the city and northern suburbs.

Having said all that, it's obvious that NPU moved back ahead of the University of Chicago in the final Central Region ranking, because this could just as easily have been the U of C that we're talking about as the #1 seed and bye team in that quadrant of the bracket. The fact that the committee moved NPU back ahead of the U of C is a significant indication that the committee felt that, in the end, North Park scored higher on the five primary criteria than did the Maroons ... and the Vikings certainly have sterling credentials for hosting one of the eight pods this coming weekend.

In other words, while I'm not making any extravagant claims about NPU's qualifications as one of the top two seeds in the entire 62-team bracket, the Vikings are both the logical choice and a deserving one.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2017, 03:36:45 pm by Gregory Sager »
"Talent is God-given. Be humble. Fame is man-given. Be grateful. Conceit is self-given. Be careful.. -- John Wooden

Offline 4samuy

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 352
  • Karma: +17/-5
    • View Profile
Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2017, 03:39:26 pm »
My first observations.

(1) Very glad to see that Lycoming & Messiah don't have to play for a third time for a long time, if they both win out to that point. If that happens, it would be a national semi-final. When Etown was (a) better than they are lately and (b) in the Commonwealth Conference, sometimes Messiah & Etown would have to play 3 times. That wasn't good: too much familiarity on both sides, and it meant essentially (since both schools are very close geographically) that a third game would take place fairly early in the tournament. I don't recall that it actually happened often (perhaps just once or twice), but in theory it could have happened fairly often.

(2) Calvin and Chicago could be meeting in the Sweet Sixteen. That seems harsh, both ways.

(3) Somewhat surprised that NPU got one of the two byes. I wonder: would Messiah have been given one, if they'd beaten Lycoming Saturday night? Or, should one have gone to Trinity? I have no argument with Tufts getting one. However, if Midd had scored on that close play in the second half and tied Tufts, perhaps winning the AQ on PKs, would Tufts have gotten a bye?

(4) We could see a Sweet Sixteen with the nearly flawless Tufts defense against the high scoring Rowan offense. If that happens, it should be fun to watch--and certainly another harsh draw, though Tufts obviously has an easier path to that point. I assume that if Rowan had beaten RU-N, they wouldn't be lined up to face Tufts that early.

(5) Lycoming vs Drew in the second round? That's also pretty harsh both ways. If it transpires, it will be interesting to see that battle.

Lyco in Tufts side of bracket too. I think Messiah has the easier path to final 4.  Messiah probably can't host because women's team is hosting first round.

I agree Messiah has an easier draw than Lycoming. I don't know if that means they are still rated higher, but perhaps they are. The men can't host b/c the women are. Last year they both hosted, but only b/c the women had a bye. Otherwise the women would have traveled the first weekend. The good news here (for the men) is that they should host the second weekend, if they take care of business this weekend in Buffalo.

Chicago is hosting site for first and second round for both men and women, with neither getting a bye.  I guess when you have both a grass pitch and a turf pitch the NCAA can make that happen.