Liberty League

[deutschfan]

Some big grudge games this weekend with major playoff implications.  Hobart hasn't beaten St. Lawrence since 2009 and Skidmore hasn't beaten Vassar since 2008.  Hobart has been improving since the Brandeis drubbing and with St. Lawrence relying on freshmen to score goals Hobart has an excellent chance to pull the upset.  It will be interesting to see how injured St. Lawrence's line up really is now that league games have begun.  Both teams have demonstrated excellent defense making the outcome a tossup.  If Skidmore wins it will not be an upset despite the history.  Skidmore has at least three scary good scoring threats.  Despite a low number of shots on goal Skidmore had a number of dangerous chances against RPI, the team that is playing the best soccer in the league right now, which could have easily ended the game in Skidmore's favor.  Vassar has not had a statement game against a quality team.  Its one shot against Stevens may have been lowest in its history.  Vassar's offense will be a serious question mark as long as their best striker remains sidelined and their starting freshmen learn to play tough matches.   

[Saint of Old]

Good analysis.
I agree that RPI has been playing the best in the league so far, even after being dominated by Oneonta, who seems to be dominating everyone.
Skidmore will be in the Tournament, but the way it looks now might be on the road.
The 2009 Hobart win v. SLU was actually at the home of St. Lawrence. Saints may be a bit venerable this season, as more than a dozen players missed and continue to miss games due to injury. Including  All American and very very key players.
SLU must make lemonade out of lemons by having their younger guys show what they have, perhaps a season or two early. Vassar plays soccer the right way and had been making steady progress to National attention before last season's failure to make the dance.
There is no dance without making the LL Tourney, so all these teams know what is on the line.

[Ommadawn]

Great insights by deutschfan and Saint of Old!  After the RPI-Skidmore teaser last week, the rest of the league is primed to begin the LL season tomorrow afternoon.  Early on, it's hard to make predictions with any degree of confidence, but I'll give it the old college try anyway.  Here goes:

Bard has shown signs of improvement, but Union appears to have awakened from its slumber and should be able to start league play with a W.  Union 3 - Bard 0

The RIT-Clarkson match shows no signs of being a goalfest, although I expect the visitors to find the back of the net at least once.  RIT 1 - Clarkson 0

Hobart has definitely improved since the start of the season.  SLU's injury status may play a role in the outcome, but I see the Saints turning it up a notch and claiming a narrow victory.  SLU 2 - Hobart 1

As noted, Skidmore has multiple potent offensive weapons.  Vassar seems to be offensively challenged and has struggled defensively on the road.  Skidmore 3 - Vassar 0

 

[Saint of Old]

It takes a brave or crazy man to attempt predictions in the LL this year, so here I go:

SLU Hobart:

St. Lawrence has lost its #1 Goalie and #1 striker and #1 Defender this season, after starting the season without its #1 Midfielder lost to graduation. Hobart  meantime is a team on the rise after a horrible start.

On Sandy though, its tough to stop SLU.
2-0

Vassar Skidmore Tie.

Clarkson could shock people this year I think.

[deutschfan]

Saint and Ommadawn--you are braver than me.  I do have enough fortitude to do the post mortems.

SLU-Hobart:  Horrific start for Hobart ended the game in the first 15 minutes.  SLU is way deep and can plug in quality players at every position if someone goes down.  SLU is once again the team to beat this year.  RPI moves to second on the deutschfan ratings given the Skidmore result.

Skidmore-Vassar:  League's leading scorer only plays the second half and it costs Skidmore dearly.  Despite almost 2-1 advantage in shots Skidmore loses at home and loses the first tiebreaker with Vassar if it comes to that.  Vassar was beaten badly by the only three quality teams it has faced before Skidmore.  Either they stepped it up enormously or Skidmore is not as quality as once thought.   

RIT-Clarkson:  This looked to be a pretty even game going in given RIT's close losses to Rochester and Oneonta and Clarkson's tie with Rochester.  Late goal by RIT seals the second half comeback on the road.  Now the question is where is RIT and Clarkson compared to Hobart, Vassar and Skidmore.  Going into this weekend I had 6 teams vying for 1 spot in the playoffs.  Now it is 6 for 2 as Skidmore's place on the playoff list is definitely at risk and Bard proves it can't contend.

Union-Bard: 8-0 takes Bard off the contender list but still leaves Union a question mark as to how they will fare against the better LL teams. 

[LaPaz]

After watching the RPI v Skidmore game a week ago I have to disagree that RPI is the better side. RPI is more solid on the backline but have nothing going forward except Koziel and Gunderson. Dewald is very solid in net but you get the feeling against better teams if RPI falls behind they have little to no chance of getting back in the game. Skidmore has more weapons with Beek and the two dangerous boys from Nigeria. I thought Skidmore had better chances in the game and if they had finished them they could have won the game.

[deutschfan]

LaPaz--I agree that on paper Skidmore is the more dangerous side and actually looked more dangerous against RPI than the statistics show.  Be that as it may, they are in real trouble.  Assuming they don't make it 3 years in a row without a defeat by SLU, they can't lose another LL game.  I don't think you can get into the LL playoffs with 9 teams and 4 losses.  Statistically it is possible but not likely.  If Skidmore doesn't it will be a frustrating 4 years for an excellent group of seniors--no regular league championships, no LL tourney championships, one LL tourney appearance, and no NCAA bids.   

[Saint of Old]

Skidmore is dangerous indeed. Beek's double against Williams shows the young man's quality.
Even at 0-2 who really wants to face Skidmore in a possible elimination game?

[deutschfan]

Have to get there first. Quality Williams win follows a mediocre performance at home in a league contest. Three teams are a lock--SLU, RPi, and Vassar after three very efficient and effective performances. Coach Jennings and his staff already deserve coaching staff of the year accolades given how they have developed at least 4 impact freshmen and utilized a total team approach for scoring. Beek also clearly deserves offensive player of the year honors.  5 teams now vying for one playoff spot with Union on the verge of joining Bard looking in.

[Saint of Old]

RPI is in.
Despite being at 2-1, they have already played SLU and Skidmore.
They should be able to get 3 wins the rest of the way.

SLU is also in good position for a ll tourney spot

Vassar at 3-0 are also in.

That means there is one spot up for grabs after three games played.
Union,Skidmore,RIT,Clarkson and Hobart are all fighting for one spot.
The list should dwindle to 3 teams after this weekend.

[deutschfan]

Down to two teams now fighting for the last spot, Hobart and Skidmore.  End of year awards are already pretty much a lock unless a dark horse makes a tremendous end of year push: OPOY-Beek, DPOY-Copeland, Coaching Staff-Vassar; Rookie-Okoye.  It is conceivable that two LL teams make the dance--SLU and RPI.  However, if one fails to make the finals it could be like last year with only one LL team getting in.  The 3 and 4 spot teams will have too many, or too ugly of losses to receive an invite unless they win the LL Tourney.  What a roller coaster ride for Coach Taylor: beat your mentor and an undefeated team in league on Friday and be on the losing end of Bard's first ever LL win on Saturday.  That's why they play the games.     

[lastguyoffthebench]

With Rochester and SIT underperforming this year, RPI should be ahead of both.  SIT needs to win the E8 this year.

[Mr.Right]

I still believe that if the Skidmore boys come to play they are a really tough out. However, like some talented Nescac teams Skidmore(especially the talented Beek) do not get up for every game. Their defense has some holes but that is an NCAA team for sure with some of those weapons.

[Saint of Old]

They were an NCAA team as well last year but did not get an invite.
Unfortunately if they lose to SLU, they are likely out of the League Tourney with no chance of making the dance.

They do know however that this is a game they can win.

[Mr.Right]

Yeah I really felt the winner of that RPI v Skidmore game should have gotten in over Miserecordia.