East Region Playoff Discussion

Started by pg04, November 10, 2006, 11:00:19 PM

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Jonny Utah

Quote from: dlip on November 19, 2012, 05:10:07 PM
Quote from: Yanks 99 on November 19, 2012, 04:14:46 PM
My Utica arguement stands...that is just what I think.

My point above was not aimed at one specific NEFC team...just that I thought it was ridiculous that 4 x NEFC teams were ranked in the East Region Top 10...

It is absurd that 4 NEFC teams were in the East Region Top 10 and yes, Utica would almost definitely run the table in the NEFC. Listen dlip has no hate towards to NEFC and is happy for the players within the league that get exposed to the NCAA tourney. It's the way the system is set up that is disturbing. dlip doesn't care if horsecock University get's a bid from the Atlantic Ocean Starfish Conference, as long as they deserve it and have defeated enough "quality" opponents that stack up against other in region teams. This however is not the case in the NEFC like it or not. Just being a realist here not a hater.

QuoteSpringfield finished 8-3 and third in the Empire 8.  They lost to a Bridgewater State team who did not win the NEFC.  I know what you guys are screaming about early-season results and how much better Springfield was at the end of the year...but still, guys, how many excuses are you going to make for teams from your own conference(s) while continually slamming the NEFC?

Union finished 6-4 and second in the Liberty League.  They lost to a Salve Regina team that lost two NEFC games, including one to an MIT team from the middle of the conference.  You wanna guarantee me that Union runs the table in the NEFC without dropping one game somewhere?  Sure, they'd go 8-2 at worst, but I'm not ready to bet my life that they're running the table.

These statements regarding the probability that both Union and Springfield would defeat both Bridgewater and Salve later in the season are not excuses, they are realistic assumptions based upon both teams improvements against "stronger" competition as the year progressed. A win is still and win and both BS and SR deserve credit for the wins but those wins are not monumental and again, were early season wins against two teams that started out very average at best and grew by leaps and bounds as the season progressed.

All I know is that I hear Mt. Ida is opening up with Horsecock University next year.  Nothing better than a Mustang/Horsecock battle in early September.

AUKaz00

Thanks for all the reading.  I think I came out of that with slightly more respect for the NEFC, which I still think is a drop off from the top 4 East conferences, but I'm willing to entertain the idea of improvement.  I also agree with the context/timing of the games we're cherry-picking.  I'm not as knowledgeable about Union, but Dlip is right about the improvement of Springfield over the course of the year after changing signal callers.  And that plays into the Pride's result against my Saxons as well - Springfield kept improving while Alfred was down to their 2nd QB and 4th RB on the season.  Enough to beat Frostburg and Hartwick, but not enough to hang with Springfield.  All that said, and barring a string of injuries, I still think that the middle teams in the top 4 East conferences would consistently finish 9-1 playing an NEFC schedule (save perhaps Salve's).
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ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: AUKaz00 on November 20, 2012, 11:54:32 AM
I still think that the middle teams in the top 4 East conferences would consistently finish 9-1 playing an NEFC schedule (save perhaps Salve's).

I have agreed with and stated this repeatedly, as well as agreeing that in head to head matchups top to bottom the NEFC would get killed (i.e. the teams at the bottom of E8, LL, and NJAC would kill the teams at the bottom of the NEFC).

My point all along in this thread has been that the top three or four NEFC teams are now good enough that an Empire 8 or Liberty League bottom-feeder would not run roughshod over the ENTIRE conference.  Again, this was mostly spurred by Yanks' statement that he believes Utica, the sixth-best team in the Empire 8, would win the NEFC, despite head-to-head results from the year 2012 suggesting otherwise.

I know that 2-16 playoff record is awful.  But I think it's silly to presume that playoff results from 1999 through 2006 matter more in this discussion than 2012 regular-season results in which NEFC's top teams demonstrated that that they ARE good enough to beat SOME teams in the Liberty League, Empire 8, and NJAC.  Not just the bottom-feeders, either, but teams that finished respectably.

There was a point where I genuinely believed that literally EVERY team in the (insert other Eastern conference here) would win the NEFC.  I believe that we are now past that point.

Salve, Bridgewater State, and Framingham State have combined to show this season - through voluntary scheduling like Salve's wins over Union and Montclair and Bridgewater State's win over Springfield, or Framingham State's near-miss against Cortland - that we shouldn't take it for granted that a Utica would just stroll into the NEFC and win it.

Again, since someone will surely misinterpret this, that DOES NOT MEAN that I believe the NEFC is better than any other Eastern conference or that it deserves a Pool C berth.  Read what's actually stated here, folks, not what you "think" I'm saying.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

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Yanks 99

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 20, 2012, 12:16:31 PM
Quote from: AUKaz00 on November 20, 2012, 11:54:32 AM
I still think that the middle teams in the top 4 East conferences would consistently finish 9-1 playing an NEFC schedule (save perhaps Salve's).

I have agreed with and stated this repeatedly, as well as agreeing that in head to head matchups top to bottom the NEFC would get killed (i.e. the teams at the bottom of E8, LL, and NJAC would kill the teams at the bottom of the NEFC).

My point all along in this thread has been that the top three or four NEFC teams are now good enough that an Empire 8 or Liberty League bottom-feeder would not run roughshod over the ENTIRE conference.  Again, this was mostly spurred by Yanks' statement that he believes Utica, the sixth-best team in the Empire 8, would win the NEFC, despite head-to-head results from the year 2012 suggesting otherwise.

I know that 2-16 playoff record is awful.  But I think it's silly to presume that playoff results from 1999 through 2006 matter more in this discussion than 2012 regular-season results in which NEFC's top teams demonstrated that that they ARE good enough to beat SOME teams in the Liberty League, Empire 8, and NJAC.  Not just the bottom-feeders, either, but teams that finished respectably.

There was a point where I genuinely believed that literally EVERY team in the (insert other Eastern conference here) would win the NEFC.  I believe that we are now past that point.
Salve, Bridgewater State, and Framingham State have combined to show this season - through voluntary scheduling like Salve's wins over Union and Montclair and Bridgewater State's win over Springfield, or Framingham State's near-miss against Cortland - that we shouldn't take it for granted that a Utica would just stroll into the NEFC and win it.

Again, since someone will surely misinterpret this, that DOES NOT MEAN that I believe the NEFC is better than any other Eastern conference or that it deserves a Pool C berth.  Read what's actually stated here, folks, not what you "think" I'm saying.

Right now...only Hartwick and Frostburg probably wouldn't win the NEFC in grand fashion.  I still believe that Salisbury, Fisher, Alfred, Ithaca, Buff State, and Utica would all win the NEFC going away...
Hartwick College 2007 Empire 8 Champions

lewdogg11

Quote from: Yanks 99 on November 20, 2012, 12:20:35 PM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 20, 2012, 12:16:31 PM
Quote from: AUKaz00 on November 20, 2012, 11:54:32 AM
I still think that the middle teams in the top 4 East conferences would consistently finish 9-1 playing an NEFC schedule (save perhaps Salve's).

I have agreed with and stated this repeatedly, as well as agreeing that in head to head matchups top to bottom the NEFC would get killed (i.e. the teams at the bottom of E8, LL, and NJAC would kill the teams at the bottom of the NEFC).

My point all along in this thread has been that the top three or four NEFC teams are now good enough that an Empire 8 or Liberty League bottom-feeder would not run roughshod over the ENTIRE conference.  Again, this was mostly spurred by Yanks' statement that he believes Utica, the sixth-best team in the Empire 8, would win the NEFC, despite head-to-head results from the year 2012 suggesting otherwise.

I know that 2-16 playoff record is awful.  But I think it's silly to presume that playoff results from 1999 through 2006 matter more in this discussion than 2012 regular-season results in which NEFC's top teams demonstrated that that they ARE good enough to beat SOME teams in the Liberty League, Empire 8, and NJAC.  Not just the bottom-feeders, either, but teams that finished respectably.

There was a point where I genuinely believed that literally EVERY team in the (insert other Eastern conference here) would win the NEFC.  I believe that we are now past that point.
Salve, Bridgewater State, and Framingham State have combined to show this season - through voluntary scheduling like Salve's wins over Union and Montclair and Bridgewater State's win over Springfield, or Framingham State's near-miss against Cortland - that we shouldn't take it for granted that a Utica would just stroll into the NEFC and win it.

Again, since someone will surely misinterpret this, that DOES NOT MEAN that I believe the NEFC is better than any other Eastern conference or that it deserves a Pool C berth.  Read what's actually stated here, folks, not what you "think" I'm saying.

Right now...only Hartwick and Frostburg probably wouldn't win the NEFC in grand fashion.  I still believe that Salisbury, Fisher, Alfred, Ithaca, Buff State, and Utica would all win the NEFC going away...

Kinda like Pat thinking Western CT might make a run at the MASCAC after posting 1 win in the last 3 seasons.


Yanks 99

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 20, 2012, 12:16:31 PM
Quote from: AUKaz00 on November 20, 2012, 11:54:32 AM
I still think that the middle teams in the top 4 East conferences would consistently finish 9-1 playing an NEFC schedule (save perhaps Salve's).

I have agreed with and stated this repeatedly, as well as agreeing that in head to head matchups top to bottom the NEFC would get killed (i.e. the teams at the bottom of E8, LL, and NJAC would kill the teams at the bottom of the NEFC).

My point all along in this thread has been that the top three or four NEFC teams are now good enough that an Empire 8 or Liberty League bottom-feeder would not run roughshod over the ENTIRE conference.  Again, this was mostly spurred by Yanks' statement that he believes Utica, the sixth-best team in the Empire 8, would win the NEFC, despite head-to-head results from the year 2012 suggesting otherwise.

I know that 2-16 playoff record is awful.  But I think it's silly to presume that playoff results from 1999 through 2006 matter more in this discussion than 2012 regular-season results in which NEFC's top teams demonstrated that that they ARE good enough to beat SOME teams in the Liberty League, Empire 8, and NJAC.  Not just the bottom-feeders, either, but teams that finished respectably.

There was a point where I genuinely believed that literally EVERY team in the (insert other Eastern conference here) would win the NEFC.  I believe that we are now past that point.

Salve, Bridgewater State, and Framingham State have combined to show this season - through voluntary scheduling like Salve's wins over Union and Montclair and Bridgewater State's win over Springfield, or Framingham State's near-miss against Cortland - that we shouldn't take it for granted that a Utica would just stroll into the NEFC and win it.

Again, since someone will surely misinterpret this, that DOES NOT MEAN that I believe the NEFC is better than any other Eastern conference or that it deserves a Pool C berth.  Read what's actually stated here, folks, not what you "think" I'm saying.

It's not like the past 6 seasons have been hardly any better for the NEFC.  So 0-8 in the playoffs for the NEFC from 1999-2006...but 2-8 from 2007-2012...losing by an average of almost 19 points per game.

I guess it is an improvement...but hardly noteworthy.
Hartwick College 2007 Empire 8 Champions

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: LewDogg11 on November 20, 2012, 12:46:31 PM
Quote from: Yanks 99 on November 20, 2012, 12:20:35 PM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 20, 2012, 12:16:31 PM
Quote from: AUKaz00 on November 20, 2012, 11:54:32 AM
I still think that the middle teams in the top 4 East conferences would consistently finish 9-1 playing an NEFC schedule (save perhaps Salve's).

I have agreed with and stated this repeatedly, as well as agreeing that in head to head matchups top to bottom the NEFC would get killed (i.e. the teams at the bottom of E8, LL, and NJAC would kill the teams at the bottom of the NEFC).

My point all along in this thread has been that the top three or four NEFC teams are now good enough that an Empire 8 or Liberty League bottom-feeder would not run roughshod over the ENTIRE conference.  Again, this was mostly spurred by Yanks' statement that he believes Utica, the sixth-best team in the Empire 8, would win the NEFC, despite head-to-head results from the year 2012 suggesting otherwise.

I know that 2-16 playoff record is awful.  But I think it's silly to presume that playoff results from 1999 through 2006 matter more in this discussion than 2012 regular-season results in which NEFC's top teams demonstrated that that they ARE good enough to beat SOME teams in the Liberty League, Empire 8, and NJAC.  Not just the bottom-feeders, either, but teams that finished respectably.

There was a point where I genuinely believed that literally EVERY team in the (insert other Eastern conference here) would win the NEFC.  I believe that we are now past that point.
Salve, Bridgewater State, and Framingham State have combined to show this season - through voluntary scheduling like Salve's wins over Union and Montclair and Bridgewater State's win over Springfield, or Framingham State's near-miss against Cortland - that we shouldn't take it for granted that a Utica would just stroll into the NEFC and win it.

Again, since someone will surely misinterpret this, that DOES NOT MEAN that I believe the NEFC is better than any other Eastern conference or that it deserves a Pool C berth.  Read what's actually stated here, folks, not what you "think" I'm saying.

Right now...only Hartwick and Frostburg probably wouldn't win the NEFC in grand fashion.  I still believe that Salisbury, Fisher, Alfred, Ithaca, Buff State, and Utica would all win the NEFC going away...

Kinda like Pat thinking Western CT might make a run at the MASCAC after posting 1 win in the last 3 seasons.

Make a run, sure, and I'd expect them to finish something like 8-2 because of the overall change in competition.  However, scores from this year don't suggest that 2012 Western Connecticut would have won the MASCAC if it had existed this season.  I hate playing comparative scores with so little data, and Western Connecticut produced a couple of pretty good efforts this year (30-24 loss to Rowan and the win over Montclair State) that suggest on their "best" day they might have beaten BSU and FSU, but:

a) they lost to Cortland 72-14.  Framingham State lost 20-19.

b) they lost to Widener 63-17 in a game far less competitive than Bridgewater State's 44-14 playoff loss. 

To be sure, there are a plethora of factors that go into determining a game's final score and games played at the beginning of the season are not the same as those played at the end.  But given 2012 results, it appears that both Bridgewater State and Framingham State were qualitatively better than Western Connecticut this season.  Certainty, of course not.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

lewdogg11

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 20, 2012, 01:04:24 PM
Quote from: LewDogg11 on November 20, 2012, 12:46:31 PM
Quote from: Yanks 99 on November 20, 2012, 12:20:35 PM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 20, 2012, 12:16:31 PM
Quote from: AUKaz00 on November 20, 2012, 11:54:32 AM
I still think that the middle teams in the top 4 East conferences would consistently finish 9-1 playing an NEFC schedule (save perhaps Salve's).

I have agreed with and stated this repeatedly, as well as agreeing that in head to head matchups top to bottom the NEFC would get killed (i.e. the teams at the bottom of E8, LL, and NJAC would kill the teams at the bottom of the NEFC).

My point all along in this thread has been that the top three or four NEFC teams are now good enough that an Empire 8 or Liberty League bottom-feeder would not run roughshod over the ENTIRE conference.  Again, this was mostly spurred by Yanks' statement that he believes Utica, the sixth-best team in the Empire 8, would win the NEFC, despite head-to-head results from the year 2012 suggesting otherwise.

I know that 2-16 playoff record is awful.  But I think it's silly to presume that playoff results from 1999 through 2006 matter more in this discussion than 2012 regular-season results in which NEFC's top teams demonstrated that that they ARE good enough to beat SOME teams in the Liberty League, Empire 8, and NJAC.  Not just the bottom-feeders, either, but teams that finished respectably.

There was a point where I genuinely believed that literally EVERY team in the (insert other Eastern conference here) would win the NEFC.  I believe that we are now past that point.
Salve, Bridgewater State, and Framingham State have combined to show this season - through voluntary scheduling like Salve's wins over Union and Montclair and Bridgewater State's win over Springfield, or Framingham State's near-miss against Cortland - that we shouldn't take it for granted that a Utica would just stroll into the NEFC and win it.

Again, since someone will surely misinterpret this, that DOES NOT MEAN that I believe the NEFC is better than any other Eastern conference or that it deserves a Pool C berth.  Read what's actually stated here, folks, not what you "think" I'm saying.

Right now...only Hartwick and Frostburg probably wouldn't win the NEFC in grand fashion.  I still believe that Salisbury, Fisher, Alfred, Ithaca, Buff State, and Utica would all win the NEFC going away...

Kinda like Pat thinking Western CT might make a run at the MASCAC after posting 1 win in the last 3 seasons.

Make a run, sure, and I'd expect them to finish something like 8-2 because of the overall change in competition.  However, scores from this year don't suggest that 2012 Western Connecticut would have won the MASCAC if it had existed this season.  I hate playing comparative scores with so little data, and Western Connecticut produced a couple of pretty good efforts this year (30-24 loss to Rowan and the win over Montclair State) that suggest on their "best" day they might have beaten BSU and FSU, but:

a) they lost to Cortland 72-14.  Framingham State lost 20-19.

b) they lost to Widener 63-17 in a game far less competitive than Bridgewater State's 44-14 playoff loss. 

To be sure, there are a plethora of factors that go into determining a game's final score and games played at the beginning of the season are not the same as those played at the end.  But given 2012 results, it appears that both Bridgewater State and Framingham State were qualitatively better than Western Connecticut this season.  Certainty, of course not.

You also have to take into account that Western CT is really good at losing and Bridgewater is not used to losing.  I'm sure Western CT knows how to shut it down when things don't go their way where Bridgewater fought tooth and nail until the bitter end.  Not all blowouts are created equally.

Bombers798891

All-time records going back more than four years are pretty much useless, unless you've got some other reason to believe the variables on both sides haven't changed. Maybe they haven't, but to toss out the 2-16 number as sort of a trump card misses the whole point.

Honestly, in my view, every team in the E8 but Salisbury had rather large issues this season.

Ithaca was inconsistent offensively and horrid in the red zone on both sides of the ball.

Utica gave up 40+ points five times this season.

Buff State played to the level of their opponents every single week. 

Alfred had no healthy players by the end of the season.

(I'll let the pages of complaints Fisher guys made about their offense all season long stand on their own merit)

I skipped FSU and the Wick, since those seem to be the teams everyone agrees would struggle already

We're a long way from 2007, where the third place E8 team could hang with Mount Union for a half. There was a ton of mediocrity in the conference, and it is not just "teams beating up on each other."

ExTartanPlayer

Bombers, here is your chance to play in this debate.  Start shooting.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

Bombers798891

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 20, 2012, 01:59:26 PM
Bombers, here is your chance to play in this debate.  Start shooting.

Wasn't my last post a decent shot? ;)

As I said, I think the E8 is way down this season, and other than Salisbury, no team was overly impressive this year. Would they be better in the NEFC? Of course. But no, I don't think the Utica/Ithaca/Buff State group, for example, would run away with it. I think we're locked in our own echo chamber. The E8 is good, so even when those teams lose, it's just good teams beating up each other. That's too flippant a dismissal of the NEFC, IMHO.

The ECFC on the other hand...

Yanks 99

Quote from: Bombers798891 on November 20, 2012, 02:40:03 PM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 20, 2012, 01:59:26 PM
Bombers, here is your chance to play in this debate.  Start shooting.

Wasn't my last post a decent shot? ;)

As I said, I think the E8 is way down this season, and other than Salisbury, no team was overly impressive this year. Would they be better in the NEFC? Of course. But no, I don't think the Utica/Ithaca/Buff State group, for example, would run away with it. I think we're locked in our own echo chamber. The E8 is good, so even when those teams lose, it's just good teams beating up each other. That's too flippant a dismissal of the NEFC, IMHO.

The ECFC on the other hand...

Maybe not 2007...but 2011 was a good year when you have two teams from the E8 making the NCAA quarterfinals.
Hartwick College 2007 Empire 8 Champions

AUKaz00

The 2-16 number is interesting.  As you point out 79, that isn't really representative of the current level of NEFC play.  We all know they were at ECFC level for years, but now?  And secondly, how many of those 18 games did the NEFC host?  The other Eastern conferences wouldn't fair well going to a #1 or #2 seed year after year.  However, PC's point of how the winner and teams that didn't blow the NEFC out fared the following week is interesting.  That's a bad sign for the Red Dragons this week...
Check out the official card game of the AU Pep Band - Str8 Eight!

Yanks 99

Quote from: Bombers798891 on November 20, 2012, 01:45:12 PM
All-time records going back more than four years are pretty much useless, unless you've got some other reason to believe the variables on both sides haven't changed. Maybe they haven't, but to toss out the 2-16 number as sort of a trump card misses the whole point.

Honestly, in my view, every team in the E8 but Salisbury had rather large issues this season.

Ithaca was inconsistent offensively and horrid in the red zone on both sides of the ball.

Utica gave up 40+ points five times this season.

Buff State played to the level of their opponents every single week. 

Alfred had no healthy players by the end of the season.

(I'll let the pages of complaints Fisher guys made about their offense all season long stand on their own merit)

I skipped FSU and the Wick, since those seem to be the teams everyone agrees would struggle already

We're a long way from 2007, where the third place E8 team could hang with Mount Union for a half. There was a ton of mediocrity in the conference, and it is not just "teams beating up on each other."

- 2-16 in the playoffs all-time

- 0-8 in the playoffs from 1999-2006

- 2-8 from 2007-2012...losing by an average of almost 19 points per game

- 0-5 in the last 4 years (2009-2012)...losing by an average of just under 20 points per game.

1999 doesn't really factor in to today's numbers...but it does show remarkable consistency that the NEFC has been completely out classed in the NCAA's in nearly every game they have played.



Hartwick College 2007 Empire 8 Champions