FB: Liberty League

[Pat Coleman]

Good news -- they have just 5 votes and are not in danger of making the Top 25.

[IC798891]

  Meanwhile, Brockport actually has the best on field resume in the E8 -- 2-1 with a single point loss to #15 Susquehanna — and gets no votes.

I get that people love polls, but just all proof that the polls are mostly a fantasy fun game at this stage, and will be until there is enough evidence on the field to draw reasonable conclusions.

Brockport does not have a better on-field resume than Cortland.

Both teams narrowly lost to Susquehanna, but Cortland's got a dominant win over the #25 team in the country, which is a lot more impressive than wins over Wilkes and Buff State.

[Machiavelli]

Good news -- they have just 5 votes and are not in danger of making the Top 25.

But they still got 5 votes, as did King's, who's opponents have a whopping 0 wins and a cumulative -253 point differential in the 9 combined games(average loss by 28.11 points). I need Utah to get some TOP stats out there, because I bet that might paint a different story and make this all make more sense. Either way, it just feels either homer-ish by particular voters or lazy or a little of both.

In any case, at this point in the season for most of the LL teams, all we can really do is speculate, make predictions, and b!tch about the Top 25 votes with some soft ass OOC schedules.

[Bartman]

Congratulations to Mach for having a perfect pick week in Week #3. FYI, Unionpalooza was perfect in week #1 and yours truly was perfect in week #2. With the Statesmen having a bye week, I had the time to summarize the incredible prognostication skills of the LL contributors. Not everyone picked every week( Only IC Alum, Ice Bear and Bartman have nothing else to do with their lives), so I think we will have two winning categories :a) Total correct picks for the entire season, and b) highest percentage of correct picks with a five week minimum to qualify.Prizes to be contributed by Mach's dog or his designee.

Participant            Wins per week. Total.  Percentage

ICAlum(the instigator).      5/6/5                           16/19*.           .842
UnionPalooza.                   7/5/-                            12/14.             .857
Bartman.                          6/7/5.                          18/20.             .900
Ice Bear.                          6/6/4.                           16/20.             .800
Jersey 42.                        6/-/-                               6/7.               .857
Machiavelli                       -/5/6.                            11/13.             .846
Oline.                              -/4/-                               4/7.               .571
IC798891.                       -/-/5.                               5/6.              .833

* no selection for the first  Friday night  game was made

Please advise if you notice any errors I might have made. Good luck the rest of the season.


Bartman.                         

[Pat Coleman]

Good news -- they have just 5 votes and are not in danger of making the Top 25.

But they still got 5 votes, as did King's, who's opponents have a whopping 0 wins and a cumulative -253 point differential in the 9 combined games(average loss by 28.11 points). I need Utah to get some TOP stats out there, because I bet that might paint a different story and make this all make more sense. Either way, it just feels either homer-ish by particular voters or lazy or a little of both.

In any case, at this point in the season for most of the LL teams, all we can really do is speculate, make predictions, and b!tch about the Top 25 votes with some soft ass OOC schedules.

Utica's votes come from a Region 3 coach. Coaches are more likely to keep a team around until they lose, regardless of how they win.

King's votes come from the MAC voter (1) and me (4). I'm on the record on this week's podcast as believing King's will beat Del Val, and with that in mind, I vote King's ahead of Del Val.

[UfanBill]

Speaking of Utica

Good news -- they have just 5 votes and are not in danger of making the Top 25.

A little perspective on Utica and  how it pertains to Top 25 polling. A year ago Utica's week #4 opponent Union was 3-0 ranked #25 before a second half collapse from a 24-7 advantage secured an improbable 31-24 win for the Pioneers. Keep in mind that win was made possible by an injury to the Union starting quarterback that left them in disarray. Credit to Utica for taking advantage of the opportunity. Utica started getting poll votes the next week and continued to gain support until losing convincingly to Cortland 43-21 week #7. Their 9-1 regular season record secured them a controversial Pool C bid to the tournament where they were a distinct underdog to #11 Susquehanna. From a pollsters perspective they got only 3 points in the week #11 regular season final poll. Now comes the shocker. Utica beats the River Hawks 17-10 in their first ever tournament game. A great program win which got everybody's attention. Rightfully so. The next week Utica was dispatched easily by Mt. Union 45-7 to end their epic season. They ended the 2022 season 10-2, #20 in the Final 2022 poll with 150 points. Obviously that win over Susquehanna was noticed...Forward to this season. The Pioneers have lost a lot to graduation  and most of the pollsters seem to know it. They were just outside the Top 25 with 49 points in the 2023 Preseason poll and despite winning their first 3 games have dropped points this year. 10, 5 and 5 points each week. Their only upcoming ranked opponent will be Cortland as they do not meet Union this season. Win that one and they likely get the E8 AQ and will have earned a Top 25 spot. 

As for Union. They are again 3-0 but  aren't sniffing any rankings points despite having soundly just beaten 2-0 Springfield 34-7. The Pride were last year's final poll #25 and received points through last week...Pollsters didn't notice...I know, keep winning and they'll show up but other teams stay in the poll even though they're losing. Pollsters hang with them...Take note the Dutchmen Garnet Chargers are rejuvenated, crushing it and anxiously awaiting their chance to prove they belong back in the poll.   

The point is that eastern teams usually do not get poll points unless they're 1) a holdover from last year 2) undefeated champion or 3) they pull off a huge upset. Are they weaker teams? Compared to let's say the perennial top 10 sure but what about everybody else? Is the 4th place team in the WIAC better than somebody in the LL or E8? Many pollsters consistently think so. Since no one can actually see all of these teams play you're likely to favor the teams you've seen or are familiar with. Like with any poll voters are slow to alter their opinion. Could it be that despite the high density of teams and leagues in the east the disproportionate number of pollsters are elsewhere?   

[Bartman]

Good news -- they have just 5 votes and are not in danger of making the Top 25.

But they still got 5 votes, as did King's, who's opponents have a whopping 0 wins and a cumulative -253 point differential in the 9 combined games(average loss by 28.11 points). I need Utah to get some TOP stats out there, because I bet that might paint a different story and make this all make more sense. Either way, it just feels either homer-ish by particular voters or lazy or a little of both.

In any case, at this point in the season for most of the LL teams, all we can really do is speculate, make predictions, and b!tch about the Top 25 votes with some soft ass OOC schedules.

Utica's votes come from a Region 3 coach. Coaches are more likely to keep a team around until they lose, regardless of how they win.

King's votes come from the MAC voter (1) and me (4). I'm on the record on this week's podcast as believing King's will beat Del Val, and with that in mind, I vote King's ahead of Del Val.

Pat,
    Not so fast. King's squeaks by Wilkes 27-23 , who was crushed by RPI, 38-14?? Surely RPI should have your vote over King's. Delaware Valley gets handled by Cortland and has 2 wins over Albright(0-3 and 0-10 last year) and Eastern. Why is  Delaware Valley even  in the Top 25(I know , they went 9-1 last year).? I am mystified. Unfortunately, the LL does not have any tough OOC games left except for Ithaca v. Cortland , the rest are U of NE, Castleton, Dean, Keystone , Hilbert(twice) and Montclair ST. I realize the LL doesn't have a shot in hell to have 2 teams in the tournament with weak SOS created by the OOC schedule, even if they beat the teams by 60-0. But we will have a great time beating each other up and bitching about the rankings.

[Pat Coleman]

Good news -- they have just 5 votes and are not in danger of making the Top 25.

But they still got 5 votes, as did King's, who's opponents have a whopping 0 wins and a cumulative -253 point differential in the 9 combined games(average loss by 28.11 points). I need Utah to get some TOP stats out there, because I bet that might paint a different story and make this all make more sense. Either way, it just feels either homer-ish by particular voters or lazy or a little of both.

In any case, at this point in the season for most of the LL teams, all we can really do is speculate, make predictions, and b!tch about the Top 25 votes with some soft ass OOC schedules.

Utica's votes come from a Region 3 coach. Coaches are more likely to keep a team around until they lose, regardless of how they win.

King's votes come from the MAC voter (1) and me (4). I'm on the record on this week's podcast as believing King's will beat Del Val, and with that in mind, I vote King's ahead of Del Val.

Pat,
    Not so fast. King's squeaks by Wilkes 27-23 , who was crushed by RPI, 38-14?? Surely RPI should have your vote over King's. Delaware Valley gets handled by Cortland and has 2 wins over Albright(0-3 and 0-10 last year) and Eastern. Why is  Delaware Valley even  in the Top 25(I know , they went 9-1 last year).? I am mystified. Unfortunately, the LL does not have any tough OOC games left except for Ithaca v. Cortland , the rest are U of NE, Castleton, Dean, Keystone , Hilbert(twice) and Montclair ST. I realize the LL doesn't have a shot in hell to have 2 teams in the tournament with weak SOS created by the OOC schedule, even if they beat the teams by 60-0. But we will have a great time beating each other up and bitching about the rankings.

I agree that Delaware Valley is ranked too high, even at 25, but I do not have any way to give them fewer votes. I guess we'll see that outcome, but King's-Wilkes is a rivalry just about on the level of RPI-Union, so I might look past a close score in that one.

[Jonny Utah]

Agreed in that I am not voting for Utica either, but there is at least some justification for having them on a ballot.

As for RPI, can't argue, but Dickinson, Wilkes, WPI and Dean as the first four are not going to get them too many votes.

100% agree on the RPI schedule so far, but a Utica 38-35 W over Lycoming, who lost to Cortland 62-7, doesn't scream Top 25 to me either.

Utica lost Zenelovic and that little slot WR that caused everyone havoc last year.  Those two guys are tough to replace.  Don't see them doing what they did last year on offense anyway.

[IC798891]

Agreed in that I am not voting for Utica either, but there is at least some justification for having them on a ballot.

As for RPI, can't argue, but Dickinson, Wilkes, WPI and Dean as the first four are not going to get them too many votes.

100% agree on the RPI schedule so far, but a Utica 38-35 W over Lycoming, who lost to Cortland 62-7, doesn't scream Top 25 to me either.

Utica lost Zenelovic and that little slot WR that caused everyone havoc last year.  Those two guys are tough to replace.  Don't see them doing what they did last year on offense anyway.

I think Utica goes 9-1 again.

Fisher;s two recent games against building programs aside, their offense is still a disaster. Brockport's is too. Aside from their game against Juniata, Alfred had 9 points in two games. And Hartwick has managed to lose to Juniata. Maybe Morrisville takes out the Pioneers, but with that game at Utica, I'm not so sure.

Side note: what has happened to offense in the E8? That whole conference outside of Cortland and Utica is just filled with bad offenses

[Machiavelli]

Agreed in that I am not voting for Utica either, but there is at least some justification for having them on a ballot.

As for RPI, can't argue, but Dickinson, Wilkes, WPI and Dean as the first four are not going to get them too many votes.

100% agree on the RPI schedule so far, but a Utica 38-35 W over Lycoming, who lost to Cortland 62-7, doesn't scream Top 25 to me either.

Utica lost Zenelovic and that little slot WR that caused everyone havoc last year.  Those two guys are tough to replace.  Don't see them doing what they did last year on offense anyway.

I think Utica goes 9-1 again.

Fisher;s two recent games against building programs aside, their offense is still a disaster. Brockport's is too. Aside from their game against Juniata, Alfred had 9 points in two games. And Hartwick has managed to lose to Juniata. Maybe Morrisville takes out the Pioneers, but with that game at Utica, I'm not so sure.

Side note: what has happened to offense in the E8? That whole conference outside of Cortland and Utica is just filled with bad offenses

On that note, I'm curious what happened to both the E8 and the MAC in general? I feel like the LL, overall, used to be a little behind E8 and was potentially neck and neck with the MAC. Now it feels like both of those conferences have gone completely downhill. Granted, the LL got Ithaca from the E8 who is a major player, but each of those conferences gets one, maybe 2 half decent teams a year now. Paper thin. Shoot, we can even throw the NJAC in there while we're at it. Like, I'm happy the LL has made progress, but I'm just not sure if the LL has improved as much as the others have declined.

[Bartman]

WEEK 3 LL Rankings:

1a. Ithaca (2-1).    After watching the Alfred game, this is a GOOD team , but not going undefeated in LL

1b(1)Union(3-0).   Very good win at home against Springfield , but not going undefeated in LL

1b(2)RPI(3-0)       Found an offense , lost a little on D, but not going undefeated in the LL

1c.  Hobart           Rested and best Rush Offense in LL,pass not so much, very good D, but not going undefeated in LL

5. Rochester.         Most Improved, has a good chance to upset one of the top 4 this year

6. St. Lawrence     Classic game against Buffalo St. awaits

7. Buffalo St.         Has a punchers chance to upset the Larries

I don't see much separation between the top 4 based on the performances to date. I don't think Ithaca will walk through the LL, which I originally thought pre-season, but I still see them as the most likely to win the LL. That said, my prediction is the winner will not be undefeated. The top 4 are all good teams( and maybe Rochester), but no one is great like IC was last year. It should be a fun season. 

[unionpalooza]

WEEK 3 LL Rankings:

1a. Ithaca (2-1).    After watching the Alfred game, this is a GOOD team , but not going undefeated in LL

1b(1)Union(3-0).   Very good win at home against Springfield , but not going undefeated in LL

1b(2)RPI(3-0)       Found an offense , lost a little on D, but not going undefeated in the LL

1c.  Hobart           Rested and best Rush Offense in LL,pass not so much, very good D, but not going undefeated in LL

5. Rochester.         Most Improved, has a good chance to upset one of the top 4 this year

6. St. Lawrence     Classic game against Buffalo St. awaits

7. Buffalo St.         Has a punchers chance to upset the Larries

I don't see much separation between the top 4 based on the performances to date. I don't think Ithaca will walk through the LL, which I originally thought pre-season, but I still see them as the most likely to win the LL. That said, my prediction is the winner will not be undefeated. The top 4 are all good teams( and maybe Rochester), but no one is great like IC was last year. It should be a fun season.

I think this is about exactly right.  Of the four at the top, I might asterisk Union and RPI only because I don’t think we’ve seen enough from either squad to ruling out a higher ceiling (i.e., an undefeated run), whereas I think we’ve seen enough from Hobart and Ithaca to suggest they’re good but not great.  I think there’s actually a reasonable chance that Union or RPI might be really, really good - for example, by the eye test to date, I think this Union team is overall better, more balanced and more versatile that the 2019 team.  But can’t tell for sure until the big boys start squaring off.

It’s a bummer the OOC schedules were so soft this year (with exception of IC, who deserves credit for their OOC SOS).  Not many useful data points.

[Machiavelli]

WEEK 3 LL Rankings:

1a. Ithaca (2-1).    After watching the Alfred game, this is a GOOD team , but not going undefeated in LL

1b(1)Union(3-0).   Very good win at home against Springfield , but not going undefeated in LL

1b(2)RPI(3-0)       Found an offense , lost a little on D, but not going undefeated in the LL

1c.  Hobart           Rested and best Rush Offense in LL,pass not so much, very good D, but not going undefeated in LL

5. Rochester.         Most Improved, has a good chance to upset one of the top 4 this year

6. St. Lawrence     Classic game against Buffalo St. awaits

7. Buffalo St.         Has a punchers chance to upset the Larries

I don't see much separation between the top 4 based on the performances to date. I don't think Ithaca will walk through the LL, which I originally thought pre-season, but I still see them as the most likely to win the LL. That said, my prediction is the winner will not be undefeated. The top 4 are all good teams( and maybe Rochester), but no one is great like IC was last year. It should be a fun season.

I think this is about exactly right.  Of the four at the top, I might asterisk Union and RPI only because I don’t think we’ve seen enough from either squad to ruling out a higher ceiling (i.e., an undefeated run), whereas I think we’ve seen enough from Hobart and Ithaca to suggest they’re good but not great.  I think there’s actually a reasonable chance that Union or RPI might be really, really good - for example, by the eye test to date, I think this Union team is overall better, more balanced and more versatile that the 2019 team.  But can’t tell for sure until the big boys start squaring off.

It’s a bummer the OOC schedules were so soft this year (with exception of IC, who deserves credit for their OOC SOS).  Not many useful data points.

I completely agree with the above. Really hard to gauge RPI and Union so far. I think both are very good, just can't tell how good. Ithaca seems to have been exposed a little and are definitely not a powerhouse. But they may be a little more battle tested when they get to the big games as well. So who knows.

[Ice Bear]

Agreed in that I am not voting for Utica either, but there is at least some justification for having them on a ballot.

As for RPI, can't argue, but Dickinson, Wilkes, WPI and Dean as the first four are not going to get them too many votes.

100% agree on the RPI schedule so far, but a Utica 38-35 W over Lycoming, who lost to Cortland 62-7, doesn't scream Top 25 to me either.

Utica lost Zenelovic and that little slot WR that caused everyone havoc last year.  Those two guys are tough to replace.  Don't see them doing what they did last year on offense anyway.

I think Utica goes 9-1 again.

Fisher;s two recent games against building programs aside, their offense is still a disaster. Brockport's is too. Aside from their game against Juniata, Alfred had 9 points in two games. And Hartwick has managed to lose to Juniata. Maybe Morrisville takes out the Pioneers, but with that game at Utica, I'm not so sure.

Side note: what has happened to offense in the E8? That whole conference outside of Cortland and Utica is just filled with bad offenses

On that note, I'm curious what happened to both the E8 and the MAC in general? I feel like the LL, overall, used to be a little behind E8 and was potentially neck and neck with the MAC. Now it feels like both of those conferences have gone completely downhill. Granted, the LL got Ithaca from the E8 who is a major player, but each of those conferences gets one, maybe 2 half decent teams a year now. Paper thin. Shoot, we can even throw the NJAC in there while we're at it. Like, I'm happy the LL has made progress, but I'm just not sure if the LL has improved as much as the others have declined.

I agree that it's hard to tell. Since Union's rebirth to relevancy the top 4 in the LL have been pretty decent year in and year out. Certainly the loss of IC to the E8 hurt but my goodness, I too am perplexed at the amount of drop off.