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Messages - Just A Guy

#1
General football / Re: Pool C -- 2014
November 16, 2014, 07:57:05 PM
Quote from: GillCJ1 on November 16, 2014, 06:45:04 PM
Well, good news for Centre.  There were definitely some surprises tonight, but I'm glad the committee at least got this one right.

Thank you!!!!  I just spoke to my son, who is a Sr at Centre, and they are VERY pleased to be in the playoffs.
#2
Quote from: jknezek on November 13, 2014, 03:26:33 PM
Quote from: Just A Guy on November 13, 2014, 03:17:05 PM
Quote from: GillCJ1 on November 13, 2014, 02:58:58 PM
Quote from: pbrooks3 on November 13, 2014, 02:54:25 PM
Probably one of only a few posts on football this year.....hope that Centre comes through Saturday with its 10th win and somehow gets into the playoffs.  If they get in, would they be thrown to the wolves in the opening round - Mt. Union?

I really hope they get selected, too.  They deserve it in my eyes.  And yes, if they make it, chances are they will travel and face a pretty tough opponent.

I want to thank you for the support of our Colonels.

I think most of us don't want to see a 10-0 team left out of the playoffs. Given how it is turning out, I wish my Generals had done more to help their SOS instead of dropping it through the floor. Of course I really wish my Generals had won that game... or any of a lot of other ones they couldn't pull out at the end.

I understand the whole SOS thing, but c'mon....We lost our AQ a couple weeks ago and now talk of not making the playoffs with a perfect record..
#3
Quote from: GillCJ1 on November 13, 2014, 02:58:58 PM
Quote from: pbrooks3 on November 13, 2014, 02:54:25 PM
Probably one of only a few posts on football this year.....hope that Centre comes through Saturday with its 10th win and somehow gets into the playoffs.  If they get in, would they be thrown to the wolves in the opening round - Mt. Union?

I really hope they get selected, too.  They deserve it in my eyes.  And yes, if they make it, chances are they will travel and face a pretty tough opponent.

I want to thank you for the support of our Colonels.
#4
Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 06, 2014, 11:02:02 AM
Quote from: Just A Guy on November 05, 2014, 06:52:13 PM
Is it possible that Centre doesn't make the Playoffs if they win out?

In my opinion, no. No unbeaten team has been left home in the expanded playoffs era, regardless of strength of schedule.

(Obvious NESCAC caveat.)

Thank you Pat.....
#5
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 05, 2014, 11:32:29 PM
Quote from: Just A Guy on November 05, 2014, 08:22:08 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 05, 2014, 07:49:04 PM
First Regional Ranking by the Committee using Selection Criteria.

1 Mary Hardin-Baylor 8-0 8-0
2 Wesley 5-0 9-0
3 Johns Hopkins 8-0 8-0
4 Washington & Jefferson 8-0 8-0
T5 Texas Lutheran* 6-1 7-1
T5 Centre* 8-0 8-0
7 Muhlenberg 7-1 7-1
8 Thomas More 7-2 7-2
9 Hampden-Sydney 6-2 6-2
10 Hardin-Simmons 3-2 5-2

NR  USA South Pool A bid. (?CNU?)

*Pool B Framingham State is #5 in the East Region as well!



Projected Pool A in Bold.
Projected Pool B in Italics.

I am very confused..

"So I have 24 AQs, 2 B's and 6 C's."

It looks like we have more than two teams in Pool B....I think I am just missing something.


Good Question (Sometimes I forget we have new people on the boards every year.)
If a Pool B team is not selected as one of the 2 Pool B bids, then they are considered in Pool C.

:)

Thank you!!!!
#6
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 05, 2014, 07:49:04 PM
First Regional Ranking by the Committee using Selection Criteria.

1 Mary Hardin-Baylor 8-0 8-0
2 Wesley 5-0 9-0
3 Johns Hopkins 8-0 8-0
4 Washington & Jefferson 8-0 8-0
T5 Texas Lutheran* 6-1 7-1
T5 Centre* 8-0 8-0
7 Muhlenberg 7-1 7-1
8 Thomas More 7-2 7-2
9 Hampden-Sydney 6-2 6-2
10 Hardin-Simmons 3-2 5-2

NR  USA South Pool A bid. (?CNU?)

*Pool B Framingham State is #5 in the East Region as well!



Projected Pool A in Bold.
Projected Pool B in Italics.

I am very confused..

"So I have 24 AQs, 2 B's and 6 C's."

It looks like we have more than two teams in Pool B....I think I am just missing something.

#7
Regional Rankings:

1 Mary Hardin-Baylor 8-0 8-0
2 Wesley 5-0 9-0
3 Johns Hopkins 8-0 8-0
4 Washington & Jefferson 8-0 8-0
T5 Texas Lutheran 6-1 7-1
T5 Centre 8-0 8-0
7 Muhlenberg 7-1 7-1
8 Thomas More 7-2 7-2
9 Hampden-Sydney 6-2 6-2
10 Hardin-Simmons 3-2 5-2

Centre has a fairly low strength of schedule that won't get much better the final two weeks, so they may be locked in behind TLU, if both teams win out. ... Muhlenberg being so far down leaves it unlikely the Centennial will get two teams in.

Is it possible that Centre doesn't make the Playoffs if they win out?
#8
Quote from: jknezek on October 28, 2014, 05:57:24 PM
Quote from: Just A Guy on October 28, 2014, 05:24:36 PM
Can someone please tell me if our Conference champion receives an automatic bid to the playoffs this season?

According to a mistake filled preliminary handbook, yes. According to what we thought were the rules, no. Last I heard people were asking for clarification from the bunglers at the NCAA

Thank you....From what I was able to research the conference was on probation for two years, if we made it through without any issues an automatic bid would be awarded. 
#9
Can someone please tell me if our Conference champion receives an automatic bid to the playoffs this season?
#10
Quote from: awadelewis on October 02, 2014, 11:18:32 PM
Not a lot of traffic... most of the folks who were regular posters stayed over on the SCAC board.  Tho' I think a lot of them are lurking around in the background.

Work is keeping me in Huntsville this weekend... my employer is hosting a major music festival on our campus and it was strongly "suggested" that we volunteer.   At least I'll have decent enough bandwidth at work to listen to the B-SC/Sewanee game.

And I'm going to keep an ear on the Millsaps/Hendrix game.   Hendrix is still undefeated at this point and will be a good test to see how they do at home against Millsaps.    Be interesting to see what happens with Rhodes/Chicago.   Will get a feel for what it'll be like when Chicago and WashU join the league next year.

I agree on both these games, I am very curious about Millsaps.
#11
As the father of a Centre senior I am truly looking forward to this season, I wish everyone safe travels.
#12
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 24, 2013, 05:05:58 PM
Quote from: Just A Guy on October 24, 2013, 04:54:51 PM
Thanks to everyone for the comments and opinions about Centre and the Top 10.  As I mentioned before I wasn't sure what qualified a team to be in this poll, but it's obvious that overall record and sos are not the only factors.  I also understand that Centre is coming off a 6-4 season, but only one year removed from The Sweet16.  I will continue to cheer for my son and his Centre teammates and hopefully they can finish 9 and 1.

Absolutely!  Overall record and SOS are useful tools, but we also have to make some qualitative judgments along the way as well; the SOS tool is nice but imperfect, and just because two teams have the same record and one has a higher SOS than the other doesn't necessarily mean that Team B has actually been more impressive than Team A, if that makes any sense.  Here's one cherry picked example: Mount Union is currently 6-0 with the 210th-ranked SOS in the country.  Greenville is 7-0 with the 199th-ranked SOS in the country.  No one in their right mind is picking Greenville over Mount Union.  Or to stay within 5 touchdowns of Mount Union, for that matter.  Since we have so little non-conference play in Division III, and 230+ teams, there just isn't enough data for those tools to be totally reliable.  The OAC is one of the nation's better conferences, but they only play one non-conference game, so all of their SOS numbers gravitate towards the middle by the end of the season although they've really played a pretty hard schedule.

Good luck to your son and his teammates - they have several big games to come!

Thanks again!
#13
Thanks to everyone for the comments and opinions about Centre and the Top 10.  As I mentioned before I wasn't sure what qualified a team to be in this poll, but it's obvious that overall record and sos are not the only factors.  I also understand that Centre is coming off a 6-4 season, but only one year removed from The Sweet16.  I will continue to cheer for my son and his Centre teammates and hopefully they can finish 9 and 1.
#14
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 24, 2013, 09:00:41 AM
jknezek covers it very well.  All of the other candidates in the poll are at least as deserving, if not more so, or have a piece of evidence that differentiates them from Centre - for now.  As we've said, if they beat Rhodes and Millsaps, they'll be in.  For now, despite what their SOS says, I look at the schedule and see a loss to a good-but-not-great WashU (a team that is not ranked in this poll, by the way, although I'm a big UAA fan and think WashU will get a Pool B berth if they win out), and five "nice" wins but none that stands out as "yep, they should be ranked!"

jknezek, I understand why you're so bullish on WashU although the rest of the pollsters are slow to come around.  They've got two losses to teams outside this region and I'm not sure everyone else knows what to make of them; but those two losses are both 10-point, competitive-til-the-end road losses against an undefeated UWW team that appears to be back to its former beastmode (look how badly they've crushed everyone since WashU - the closest game since is a 41-point win) and defending IIAC champion Coe, who spent the first six weeks in the Top 25 before this week's upset loss to Dubuque.  WashU is really, really good (and I don't like to go after specific players, but they're held back a little by some struggles at QB - admittedly I haven't seen much of them first hand this year, so I can't tell if it's just him or the whole offense that struggles).  Their defense has kept everyone but Hendrix well below season averages, and Hendrix has scored on everyone they've played.  I'm a CMU fan, but admittedly part of me wants WashU to run the table because I think they might be able to win a first-round playoff game if they get the right matchup, and the UAA hasn't gotten a playoff berth since the CMU/CWRU run from 2006-2009.

*Edited to add:  Sorry for the late addition, but Keith posted a column this morning with one quite particularly salient here:

http://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/2013/poll-positions-week-7

To paraphrase - "Do you just want to see your team ranked in the Top 25, or would you rather have your team be good enough to be in the Top 25?"

Same thing applies here with Centre.  If they're good enough to be ranked, they'll get there eventually by virtue of wins over Millsaps/Rhodes.  If they don't win both of those games, we're basically just sniping over whether they should make a brief appearance here today before losing those games.

GREAT post!!!!!
#15
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 23, 2013, 08:12:23 PM
Quote from: Just A Guy on October 23, 2013, 07:18:24 PM
I did some checking, and please correct me if I am incorrect:

1) UMHB          6-0  sos = 43
2) JHU             6-0  sos = 90
3) Millsaps      6-0  sos = 34
4) Wesley       5-2  sos = 2
5) Tex Luth     5-0  sos = 219
6) Ham Syd     5-1  sos = 77
7) LaColl          4-2  sos = 81
8) Maryville      6-1  sos = 119
9) Randy Mac   5-1  sos = 22
10) Th Moore   5-1  sos = 110

Wash U            4-2  sos = 6
Rhodes             5-1  sos = 144
Lagrange          3-3  sos = 91

CENTRE             5-1   sos = 61

As I stated above if I have a mistake I do apologize.  I cannot understand why Centre is not receiving any votes. I am not sure what guidelines are used by the voters but based on overall record and strength of schedule I believe Centre has earned some votes.  They have been mentioned as "key games" so I can tell they are on the map.

Centre also lost to WashU and has yet to play Rhodes and Millsaps. Win those and they'll be in. For now, IMO there's no way you rank centre without rankin WashU first. Rhodes also took WashU to OT while Centre did not.

I completely agree about ranking Wash U,  but to say that Centre will have to be 8 and 1 before they get any "love." ??????  I would expect if they are able to win both those games they are in the Top 25.