Bracketology Projection

Started by MRMIKESMITH, October 11, 2021, 09:58:17 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

D3fanboy

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 18, 2021, 12:10:17 PM
Quote from: Inkblot on October 18, 2021, 11:40:37 AM
I feel like Wheaton's loss being to North Central is a significant point in their favor. North Central got in in similar circumstances in 2019 when I believe they had a worse SOS than Susquehanna.

What does Washington & Lee's SOS look like? That loss to Christopher Newport will probably hold them down somewhat, and I doubt R-M would be ranked above them.

W&L is currently in Pool A position, because of their H2H. Nevertheless, their SOS is .465. I don't think a second loss gets them into consideration. I think it's Pool A or bust for W&L. That CNU loss probably hurts them in terms of seeding if they were to win out due to some R1 teams being too far from Mount Union. Again, this is subject to change as I have NCC, UWW, UMHB, and Mount as the top 4 #1 seeds. It was mentioned during the broadcast that we don't know how the committee will rank teams and if 2019 playoff results will come into play. If they do use 2019, in that case Delaware Valley and/or St. John's would be a top seed.

Outstanding point.   Previous year performance seems to be the final tiebreaker, but what if the previous season was two years ago?  Does spring football count?  What a mess for the committee, but thankfully D3 has a true playoff.  SOS seems like its going to be super important, even though D3 SOS is crazy for 10 team leagues etc

hazzben

Bethel has a SOS .588 and still has a path to Pool A if they win they win and get the MIAC Auto bid in the SJU rematch.

What's interesting is how would the committee view a 2 loss Bethel, but with both losses coming against a Top5 SJU? Especially if the second loss is as close as the first?

How do they compare a one loss Whitworth, that got blown out against Linfield (so it would appear a likely 2nd loss if they had a rematch) to a Bethel who lost at least once in a close competitive 1 score game to SJU, and potentially twice?

Easy math says you favor the 1 loss team. But if Bethel loses a close rematch to SJU, I have zero idea how Region 6 committee would view that, where they'd rank them in Region, or how the National Committee would view it. It's a very unique 2 loss situation.

A lot of FB left still. Ithaca, Union, and the LL still have a lot of sorting out to do before we have any idea who the Pool A is or if there's a 1 loss Pool C still standing.


hazzben

Quote from: D3fanboy on October 18, 2021, 12:40:36 PM
Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 18, 2021, 12:10:17 PM
Again, this is subject to change as I have NCC, UWW, UMHB, and Mount as the top 4 #1 seeds. It was mentioned during the broadcast that we don't know how the committee will rank teams and if 2019 playoff results will come into play. If they do use 2019, in that case Delaware Valley and/or St. John's would be a top seed.

Outstanding point. Previous year performance seems to be the final tiebreaker, but what if the previous season was two years ago? Does spring football count? What a mess for the committee, but thankfully D3 has a true playoff. SOS seems like its going to be super important, even though D3 SOS is crazy for 10 team leagues etc

Top Seed SOS:
UWW .645
SJU .620
NCC .582
Mount .519
UMHB .453

UWW and NCC seem like a lock for 1 Seeds if they win out. Great SOS numbers, they'll have favorable RRO data, plus if they needed a tie breaker, the best 2019 results of the group.

The question is, who gets the last two. Our Top 25 says SJU is on the outside looking in, but that has no official bearing. I don't think it we have any read at this point about who the 1 Seeds are.

D3fanboy

Quote from: hazzben on October 18, 2021, 12:58:41 PM
Quote from: D3fanboy on October 18, 2021, 12:40:36 PM
Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 18, 2021, 12:10:17 PM
Again, this is subject to change as I have NCC, UWW, UMHB, and Mount as the top 4 #1 seeds. It was mentioned during the broadcast that we don't know how the committee will rank teams and if 2019 playoff results will come into play. If they do use 2019, in that case Delaware Valley and/or St. John's would be a top seed.

Outstanding point. Previous year performance seems to be the final tiebreaker, but what if the previous season was two years ago? Does spring football count? What a mess for the committee, but thankfully D3 has a true playoff. SOS seems like its going to be super important, even though D3 SOS is crazy for 10 team leagues etc

Top Seed SOS:
UWW .645
SJU .620
NCC .582
Mount .519
UMHB .453

UWW and NCC seem like a lock for 1 Seeds if they win out. Great SOS numbers, they'll have favorable RRO data, plus if they needed a tie breaker, the best 2019 results of the group.

The question is, who gets the last two. Our Top 25 says SJU is on the outside looking in, but that has no official bearing. I don't think it we have any read at this point about who the 1 Seeds are.

that UMHB SOS...yikes

hazzben

Quote from: D3fanboy on October 18, 2021, 01:04:07 PM
Quote from: hazzben on October 18, 2021, 12:58:41 PM
Quote from: D3fanboy on October 18, 2021, 12:40:36 PM
Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 18, 2021, 12:10:17 PM
Again, this is subject to change as I have NCC, UWW, UMHB, and Mount as the top 4 #1 seeds. It was mentioned during the broadcast that we don't know how the committee will rank teams and if 2019 playoff results will come into play. If they do use 2019, in that case Delaware Valley and/or St. John's would be a top seed.

Outstanding point. Previous year performance seems to be the final tiebreaker, but what if the previous season was two years ago? Does spring football count? What a mess for the committee, but thankfully D3 has a true playoff. SOS seems like its going to be super important, even though D3 SOS is crazy for 10 team leagues etc

Top Seed SOS:
UWW .645
SJU .620
NCC .582
Mount .519
UMHB .453

UWW and NCC seem like a lock for 1 Seeds if they win out. Great SOS numbers, they'll have favorable RRO data, plus if they needed a tie breaker, the best 2019 results of the group.

The question is, who gets the last two. Our Top 25 says SJU is on the outside looking in, but that has no official bearing. I don't think it we have any read at this point about who the 1 Seeds are.

that UMHB SOS...yikes

It should improve a little over the next few weeks, but not enough to really close the gap. They'll still likely be the lowest number, which could mean they are traveling to a chilly locale for the Semifinals.

Inkblot

Quote from: FANOFD3 on October 18, 2021, 12:10:17 PM
Quote from: Inkblot on October 18, 2021, 11:40:37 AM
I feel like Wheaton's loss being to North Central is a significant point in their favor. North Central got in in similar circumstances in 2019 when I believe they had a worse SOS than Susquehanna.

What does Washington & Lee's SOS look like? That loss to Christopher Newport will probably hold them down somewhat, and I doubt R-M would be ranked above them.

W&L is currently in Pool A position, because of their H2H. Nevertheless, their SOS is .465. I don't think a second loss gets them into consideration. I think it's Pool A or bust for W&L. That CNU loss probably hurts them in terms of seeding if they were to win out due to some R1 teams being too far from Mount Union. Again, this is subject to change as I have NCC, UWW, UMHB, and Mount as the top 4 #1 seeds. It was mentioned during the broadcast that we don't know how the committee will rank teams and if 2019 playoff results will come into play. If they do use 2019, in that case Delaware Valley and/or St. John's would be a top seed.

True that W&L has no Pool C path, but they could hold R-M down in the regional rankings.
Moderator of /r/CFB. https://inkblotsports.com. Twitter: @InkblotSports.

FCGrizzliesGrad


Like Wally used to do, here's a chart of how everyone stands for Pool C.

Red teams are eliminated. They either have more than 2 losses or have 2 losses that are both outside of conference (meaning a 3rd loss to get to pool C).
Gray teams are unlikely. They either have 2 losses with at least one in conference or have 1 loss that is outside of conference (thus would lose a 2nd game to be pool C).
White teams either have 0 losses or have 1 loss that is in conference. (So could finish as a 1 loss Pool C team)
Teams that are bold and italicized are conference leaders/co-leaders (all currently have no conference losses).
Teams with an asterisk represent losses outside of D3 and not factored in currently.

This doesn't factor in anything other than current records. This also doesn't factor in who still plays who in the next 4 weeks. Currently 50 teams could end up as a 1 loss Pool C team, 39 others as 2 loss teams. Those numbers will shrink in the next month as teams play each other/are upset and as teams start locking up Pool A bids.
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem

D3fanboy

I am assuming that the Regional Rankings will still come out the same time (after week 8?), but is the NCAA going to still do 10 ranked teams per region?  or is it less with the extra regions? 25-30% of teams being "ranked" seems a bit high

FCGrizzliesGrad

I believe it's going to be something like 7 or 8 per region. Don't think it's been officially announced yet.
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem

D3fanboy

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 02:35:33 PM
I believe it's going to be something like 7 or 8 per region. Don't think it's been officially announced yet.

makes way more sense....so the NCAA probably wont do it  ;)

hazzben

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 09:23:29 AM

Like Wally used to do, here's a chart of how everyone stands for Pool C.

Red teams are eliminated. They either have more than 2 losses or have 2 losses that are both outside of conference (meaning a 3rd loss to get to pool C).
Gray teams are unlikely. They either have 2 losses with at least one in conference or have 1 loss that is outside of conference (thus would lose a 2nd game to be pool C).
White teams either have 0 losses or have 1 loss that is in conference. (So could finish as a 1 loss Pool C team)
Teams that are bold and italicized are conference leaders/co-leaders (all currently have no conference losses).
Teams with an asterisk represent losses outside of D3 and not factored in currently.

This doesn't factor in anything other than current records. This also doesn't factor in who still plays who in the next 4 weeks. Currently 50 teams could end up as a 1 loss Pool C team, 39 others as 2 loss teams. Those numbers will shrink in the next month as teams play each other/are upset and as teams start locking up Pool A bids.

For the MIAC, Bethel is just a 1 loss team.

IC798891

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 09:23:29 AM

Like Wally used to do, here's a chart of how everyone stands for Pool C.

Red teams are eliminated. They either have more than 2 losses or have 2 losses that are both outside of conference (meaning a 3rd loss to get to pool C).
Gray teams are unlikely. They either have 2 losses with at least one in conference or have 1 loss that is outside of conference (thus would lose a 2nd game to be pool C).
White teams either have 0 losses or have 1 loss that is in conference. (So could finish as a 1 loss Pool C team)
Teams that are bold and italicized are conference leaders/co-leaders (all currently have no conference losses).
Teams with an asterisk represent losses outside of D3 and not factored in currently.

This doesn't factor in anything other than current records. This also doesn't factor in who still plays who in the next 4 weeks. Currently 50 teams could end up as a 1 loss Pool C team, 39 others as 2 loss teams. Those numbers will shrink in the next month as teams play each other/are upset and as teams start locking up Pool A bids.

That is awesome, awesome work. Can't give K yet, but well done.

FCGrizzliesGrad

Quote from: hazzben on October 19, 2021, 03:37:44 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 09:23:29 AM

Like Wally used to do, here's a chart of how everyone stands for Pool C.

Red teams are eliminated. They either have more than 2 losses or have 2 losses that are both outside of conference (meaning a 3rd loss to get to pool C).
Gray teams are unlikely. They either have 2 losses with at least one in conference or have 1 loss that is outside of conference (thus would lose a 2nd game to be pool C).
White teams either have 0 losses or have 1 loss that is in conference. (So could finish as a 1 loss Pool C team)
Teams that are bold and italicized are conference leaders/co-leaders (all currently have no conference losses).
Teams with an asterisk represent losses outside of D3 and not factored in currently.

This doesn't factor in anything other than current records. This also doesn't factor in who still plays who in the next 4 weeks. Currently 50 teams could end up as a 1 loss Pool C team, 39 others as 2 loss teams. Those numbers will shrink in the next month as teams play each other/are upset and as teams start locking up Pool A bids.

For the MIAC, Bethel is just a 1 loss team.
Yes but the MIAC will have a championship game right? That would mean Bethel would need to pick up a second loss to be pool C. If they win out which would include the title game they'd be pool A.
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem

wally_wabash

I do love the eliminator table!

Quote from: D3fanboy on October 19, 2021, 02:02:37 PM
I am assuming that the Regional Rankings will still come out the same time (after week 8?), but is the NCAA going to still do 10 ranked teams per region?  or is it less with the extra regions? 25-30% of teams being "ranked" seems a bit high

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 02:35:33 PM
I believe it's going to be something like 7 or 8 per region. Don't think it's been officially announced yet.

I was actually hoping for 10 per region- the extra data for primary criteria would be useful, TBH.  A previous announcement from the NCAA indicated that the new regions would rank 6-9 teams each and I believe that more recent indications to D3football dot com have indicated that it will indeed be 7 or 8 teams per region, depending on the number of teams in a region.  Still waiting on the pre-championship manual for confirmation of everything which should be coming soon.  I mean, we expect rankings after week 9, so sometime before 10/30 I would assume. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

hazzben

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 04:12:35 PM
Quote from: hazzben on October 19, 2021, 03:37:44 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 19, 2021, 09:23:29 AM

Like Wally used to do, here's a chart of how everyone stands for Pool C.

Red teams are eliminated. They either have more than 2 losses or have 2 losses that are both outside of conference (meaning a 3rd loss to get to pool C).
Gray teams are unlikely. They either have 2 losses with at least one in conference or have 1 loss that is outside of conference (thus would lose a 2nd game to be pool C).
White teams either have 0 losses or have 1 loss that is in conference. (So could finish as a 1 loss Pool C team)
Teams that are bold and italicized are conference leaders/co-leaders (all currently have no conference losses).
Teams with an asterisk represent losses outside of D3 and not factored in currently.

This doesn't factor in anything other than current records. This also doesn't factor in who still plays who in the next 4 weeks. Currently 50 teams could end up as a 1 loss Pool C team, 39 others as 2 loss teams. Those numbers will shrink in the next month as teams play each other/are upset and as teams start locking up Pool A bids.

For the MIAC, Bethel is just a 1 loss team.
Yes but the MIAC will have a championship game right? That would mean Bethel would need to pick up a second loss to be pool C. If they win out which would include the title game they'd be pool A.

Yes, there's a championship game. Technically Bethel could pick up a second loss before the MIAC champ game, as long as they are top of their division, they still have a Pool A shot with a win in the final week.

I'm just pointing out that right now Bethel is listed as a two loss team, when they are currently a 1 loss team.

Part of Wally's annual exercise is in part predicting who will win H2H matchups down the stretch, and projecting Pool C picks based on this. It's what makes it fun each week, as the data points shift. This model is saying we are looking at only real time data in terms of record.