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Messages - Dr. Acula

#1
Had to wait for Ott to sweep JCU yesterday, but I was pretty close.  Mount sweeping Etta was my only miss.  And those were two battles in Alliance.  Mount won the opener 1-0 and then plated 3 in the bottom of the 8th in the 2nd game to win 6-5.  Breeden was dominant for Mount in game 1 tossing a 5-hit CG shutout with 9 K's.  Neither team got much going with the bats for most of the day.  Mount had an uncharacteristic 5 errors in game 2 which helped the Pios some.

BW moved up to #2 in today's top 25 poll.  Ott and Mount were ORV this week.
#2
Opening weekend in OAC play.  3 of the DH are now on Sunday I'm assuming due to expected weather.  Here are the match ups including the current SoS ranking nationally since OOC schedules vary widely.

Berg (12-4, #102) at Cap (6-10, #151)  Cap is giving up north of 8 runs per game.  Berg is scoring just below 8 runs per game and leads the conference with 17 homers and 58 XBH.  Throw in that Cap notched 2 wins against a branch school and Berg should sweep this. 

BW (13-3, #68) at ONU (6-8, #158)  BW has been by their standards middle of the road offensively so far.  But they lead the OAC by more than half a run with a team ERA of 2.94.  ONU is middle of the pack with both the bats and pitching.  Feels like a BW sweep.   

Etta (8-8, #33) at Mount (12-4, #83)  Probably the best match up this weekend.  Etta is battle tested already with a schedule that I was honestly surprised was only #33.  These teams' offensive stats are very, very similar.  Etta has had better pitching so far, but Mount's work horses have thrown well so far.  Split in Alliance.

Ott (12-5, #71) at JCU (5-9, #141)  JCU is struggling on the mound (7.40 ERA, 1.79 WHIP) which is a terrible recipe with Ott coming to town.  The Cards are hitting a scorching .345 as a team and leading the OAC at over 10 runs per game.  They're also tied for first with 58 XBH.  This should be a sweep for Ott, but their pitching makes me a little nervous.

Musky (9-7, #202) at Wilm (2-12, #98)  Musky is the second best offense so far albeit against the weakest opponents.  They have 59 SB which is tops in the OAC by a wide margin.  Wilm will not help their SoS, but Musky should score in bunches.  The Fish have given up an alarming 25 bombs in 16 games as a staff so clearly you're never out of the game against them.  The problem for the Quakers is they are dead last in hitting (.266 team BA).  Musky sweeps on the road.
#3
Quote from: D3fanboy on March 19, 2024, 12:57:48 PM
Quote from: Dr. Acula on March 19, 2024, 11:18:34 AMOut of curiosity, which schools are you worried about?  I know there have been rumors about Wilmington in the past.  And Defiance has publicly had issues.

lots of fairly small endowments across the Buckeye state.  As far as NEO: Malone, Walsh and Lake Erie seem like they might be in some financial peril.  It definitely seems like a lot of the Ohio D2's have significantly less funding than their D1 and D3 pals

Curiosity got the best of me and I had to look it up.  Walsh wasn't listed, but Malone's endowment is $19MM.  For comparison sake, Marietta has a slightly smaller enrollment than Malone and their endowment is $102MM.  Berg has the smallest endowment in the OAC at $51MM.  And to your point, the handful of D2's I looked at were all Berg level or lower. 
#4
Lake Erie was the one I was thinking of in NEO.
#5
Out of curiosity, which schools are you worried about?  I know there have been rumors about Wilmington in the past.  And Defiance has publicly had issues.
#6
JCU ends the season #12 in the final top 25.  No other OAC school received a vote.  I'm guessing between Etta and Mount it's been a minute since we've said that.
#7
It would certainly make sense.  As fanboy said, the tuition deal is nice.  Especially huge these days given the cost of college. 

I figure Nigro will end up somewhere like Walsh.  I have never seen Barrino play so I have no idea on him. 
#8
It was a long decade plus of not much fun in Alliance (aside from chuckling at his "line changes" when he'd sub out all 5 guys at once).  It's why when I get frustrated with a Fuline team I try to remind myself where he has the program versus the past.  Even in the rare years they haven't been great they're always pretty fun to watch and play hard.  And those down years have become a rarity.

Speaking of Fuline, I wonder what his son is doing for college?  He's a nice player (good WR in football too).  I'd also love to see Casenhiser from Lake in Alliance.  If you score 25 a game in the Fed for 2 yrs as a 6 foot guard I'm thinking that means you can score.
#9
LOL like he's John Wooden!  Well played.  Let's be clear about Lee Hood and his tenure...literally one kid kept him from having a losing career record.  Aaron Shipp.  I was going to say two and include Neal Richards (also a beast from that great team), but Shipp alone was worth probably 10+ wins each of his last 2 seasons.  Those two were just grown men and he never came close to duplicating that type of team in the 15ish years that followed.
#10
Quote from: TigerKing on March 05, 2024, 02:41:23 PMAlso, last year the Streaks won the OAC all-sports trophy on the men's side with 1st place finishes in basketball, XC, and Lacrosse, and 2nd place finishes in football, soccer, and track.  The women finished third in the all-sports standings with wins in volleyball and cross country, and 2nd place in track.  All that to say that they were competing just fine in the OAC, and this makes it feel even more football-driven than I thought before.

Very average swimmers though, which might explain why Kenyon was OK with the move.

FWIW, JCU is the best men's athletics program in the OAC currently.  They've won the All-Sports trophy 8 straight years coming into this academic year. 
#11
It's one thing to play well and just get beat.  It's another to just collectively have a catastrophic night shooting the ball at the worst possible time.  Chicone was 8-18 from the floor.  The other 4 starters were 5-36 (14%).  Thankfully JCU only turned it over 6 times so they were able to keep it relatively close thanks to the +12 TO margin because shooting 27% as a team against a team as good as Calvin I would have thought ended in a 20+ point loss.  I'm sure JCU is disappointed, but they have this group back one more time so it's on to next year.
#12
I'd like to think Fuline is looking over the NDC roster like a steakhouse menu this weekend.
#13
Quote from: D3fanboy on February 28, 2024, 01:54:58 PMIn this era of the transfer portal, I don't think that you can totally rely solely on recruiting and developing guys for four years and compete yearly at the top of the OAC and D3.  If you have one year left of Parker, I think that Fuline really needs to be hitting the transfer market to load up for another Final Four run.  Some reliable outside shooting would be fantastic

I agree.  If you were offering me a hypothetical transfer made in a lab I would ask for a 6'2"+ SG/SF that can knock down 3's and score consistently in general.  Easy order to fill, I know.  Fuline brought in Laurich and Steele as transfers this year and both contributed nicely.  That being said, he needs a tier above that this year in the portal.  He'll figure it out.  His track record speaks for itself at this point.
#14
Quote from: RaidersRGr8t on February 28, 2024, 01:23:49 PMMount Union got hosed out of an NCAA tournament bid (in more ways than one). As Lenny Reich would have reminded us, however, don't lose twice to Wilmington.
I expect next season's starters to be Parker, Laurich, Hudson, Steele and some combination of Collier, Farrington and perhaps a player that we don't know about yet (transfer?). Farrington is a little better defensively than Collier and that's important to Fuline. I expect Graham will be the 6th man and they like Sabin off the bench to handle the ball.
John Carroll has almost every back. Higgins is done for sure, but only O'Toole and Eller are listed as seniors and I'm not sure about their eligibility. Marietta will be really good again, and I think Otterbein, Heidelberg and Capital will be in the top half of the conference.
The previous best 6-year run at Mount Union was 96 wins from 1999-2005. They're 118-22 the last six seasons and that includes 2020-21 when they only played 12 games.
The Purple Raiders will be fine. They will compete for the OAC title. Fuline has elevated the expectations to the point that if they don't make the NCAA Tournament the season is somehow a disappointment. The fact is, in the Division III era (1973-2024) Mount Union had losing records in 25 of 35 seasons before his arrival.

You don't have to remind any of us that were on campus during the Lee Hood era.  250-246.  The very definition of average basketball.

And if Steele and Hudson are going to be the starting backcourt they need to be a couple of gym rats in the off season to get their 3 pt % up.  They were both in the 20's this year.  Regardless, JCU will be massive favorites to repeat next year.  They're going to be loaded.
#15
Quote from: D3fanboy on February 27, 2024, 04:23:44 PM
Quote from: Dr. Acula on February 27, 2024, 11:02:07 AM
Quote from: D3fanboy on February 24, 2024, 04:56:52 PMIncredible comeback for the Raiders only to get bit by D3refs.  Wild that this team could either win a title or miss the tournament entirely

Not too terribly long ago I would have been pumped to finish 20-7 and OAC runner-up.  But that's not the standard today and I'd imagine that the team is as disappointed as anyone that they didn't make the NCAA tourney.  Coming into the season I frankly didn't think that was even a realistic threat.

With the talent back for the Raiders, I can't help but think that there were times that they were "just going through the motions" and planning to turn it on when needed. For the life of me, I can't explain the number of single digit point totals from Newsome and Gurley.  Both were great in the last couple of games, but the season numbers don't lie.  Newsome at least gave you pretty good defense each night.  Hopefully its a learning lesson for Fuline and the returning players (Parker?)

Both Wilmington games come to mind for just a lack of urgency.  JCU is excellent.  Etta was down (by their standards).  Berg, Ott and Cap were solid but not spectacular.  Knowing all those things and what Mount had back on paper I would say 15-3/14-4 is where I would have had them.

I can't recall who posted it earlier, but Mansfield was a big loss.  Bigger than I gave credit to him.  Toughness aside, he could get to the rim in crunch time.  I thought Hudson showed good growth from last year to this year including several games where he was a critical second (or first) scorer.  But he's still a soph not a senior who had been through the battles.  There were long stretches where he looked like the only one who could create his own shot if needed.  Graham looked like he had the explosiveness to do it, but he was a freshman and understandably played a little out of control sometimes.  Farrington stepped up nicely down the stretch with some big minutes.  Those two hopefully develop into key contributors next year.