TOP 25

Started by short, July 11, 2008, 10:56:29 PM

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DanPadavona

Justin Bieber created 666 false D3 identities to give me negative karma.

K-Mack

Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

K-Mack

Quote from: redswarm81 on September 29, 2008, 04:39:42 AM
Aha, the McMillan Paradox again:

No. 25 Concordia-Morehead def. No. 18 St. John's, at the Natural Bowl, no less.

I can assure you that isn't where I specifically had those teams ranked.  ;)

I can also assure you that I am wrong a lot, and if I couldn't handle being wrong, this would be a very bad job for me to have.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

redswarm81

Quote from: K-Mack on September 30, 2008, 03:12:28 AM
Quote from: redswarm81 on September 29, 2008, 04:39:42 AM
Aha, the McMillan Paradox again:

No. 25 Concordia-Morehead def. No. 18 St. John's, at the Natural Bowl, no less.

I can assure you that isn't where I specifically had those teams ranked.  ;)

I can also assure you that I am wrong a lot, and if I couldn't handle being wrong, this would be a very bad job for me to have.

To clarify, I didn't coin the term "McMillan Paradox" to indicate that McMillan was the cause.

Since McMillan was the first commentator to chronicle the phenomenon of teams being ranked lower in polls than teams they defeated in head-to-head matchups, the phenomenon is called the "McMillan Paradox."

Similar to the Doppler Effect, which is not caused by Christian Doppler, but rather was identified by him.
Irritating SAT-lagging Union undergrads and alums since 1977

Bob.Gregg

I certainly hope nobody here is advocating the position that, simply on the basis that "B" beat "A" that "B" should be ranked higher...

Chaminade immediately comes to mind, followed by innumerable others to blow that position completely out of the water.
Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.

redswarm81

Quote from: Bob.Gregg on September 30, 2008, 10:48:14 AM
I certainly hope nobody here is advocating the position that, simply on the basis that "B" beat "A" that "B" should be ranked higher...

Chaminade immediately comes to mind, followed by innumerable others to blow that position completely out of the water.

I'm certainly not advocating that position.  I'm certain that K-Mack isn't advocating that position.  I don't think that such a position is even implied.

As Keith has discussed at some length, when there is no other basis of comparison, then there is no objective justification to rank a losing team higher than the head-to-head winner.

As an example, in 2007, after week 1 of the D-1A season, there was no objective basis to rank UMichigan higher than Appalachian St. (even though Appalachian St. is D-1AA and thus couldn't be included in any D-1A polls, but I'm sure you understand my point).

This implicates two very different approaches to poll ranking: objective (thinking) v. subjective (feeling).  The d3football.com gurus have promoted the d3football.com poll as a more objective poll than available alternatives, and to a large extent I think they're correct.

At this point in the season, the head-to-head matchup between Concordia-Morehead and St. John's--at St. John's home field--vastly outweighs the other available objective criteria such as common opponents, and/or opponents winning percentage.
Irritating SAT-lagging Union undergrads and alums since 1977

HSC85

Hello,

I am confused about the rankings in the D3football top 25 poll.  It seems if you are ranked in the preseason top 25 then you can lose a game and it does not change the view of the voters.  It is disappointing that a defending conference champion that is the preseason pick to win a top 15 conference that is 4 - 0 cannot crack the top 25 because of other teams that have lost unexpectedly must be kept in the poll to make the preseason picks look somewhat legitimate.  I am a partisan for the team I support.  I will not name the team for fear of retribution, but you can figure it out by my posting name.  It is just disappointing for all of the teams out here that don't get the pre-season publicity to still have to fight for recognition even after the performances and records warrent it. 

I realize that this is only a subjective evaluation.  And I appreciate all that the staff of D3football and the poster do to promote D III athletics.  But most of all I appreciate the forum where concerns can be raised and discussed.



Ron Boerger

let's see.

"HSC" barely beat .500 NC Wesleyan
You had to go to OT to beat 0-4 Gettysburg
You beat 1-2 King's by 2 TDs
and you had your best game of the year against 2-2 Guilford, winning by 3 TDs.

Maybe when you beat someone you'll get more votes - you are "30th" right now and given your results that's about right.  Until then you're just another team that hasn't beaten anyone of consequence or been winning impressively on a consistent basis.   In the meantime, remember that there are nearly 240 D3 football teams. 

It's not easy to get in the D3football.com top 25.  And it's not just winning, it's who you're defeating and how you're doing it. 

Pat Coleman

85, I think what's important to remember, too, is that there are 239 teams in Division III, twice as many in Division I FBS. It's twice as difficult to get into the Top 25 in Division III.

Let's make sure, too, to look at the teams in the Top 25 that have a loss and who they have lost to.

UW-Eau Claire was ranked in the preseason, has a loss and is still ranked. Lost to No. 2/defending national champion UW-Whitewater.
St. John Fisher lost at No. 1 Mount Union.
Wesley lost at Delaware Valley, currently ranked No. 16.
Salisbury lost at Delaware Valley, currently ranked No. 16.
St. John's lost to Concordia-Moorhead, currently ranked No. 25.
Wartburg lost at Augsburg, unranked but first among others receiving votes. Plus, Wartburg with a road win against ranked Central.
Central -- see Wartburg.

Delaware Valley and Concordia-Moorhead are also in the poll with losses, but neither was ranked in the preseason poll. Both also have wins against ranked teams.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

HSC85

Ron and Pat,

Thank you so much for your input. 

Ralph Turner

Quote from: HSC85 on October 02, 2008, 05:08:08 PM
Ron and Pat,

Thank you so much for your input. 
Welcome to the boards, HSC85.

You got a couple of great answers.

FYI, Ron Boerger was South Region reporter for several years early in this decade.  He is a well-respected Trinity TX fan who has seen his great share of winning D-III football.   :)

Good luck in the ODAC!

redswarm81

I've been marveling at the entertainment provided by the Empire8, so that's where my mind is these days.  I guess I'm still surprised to see St. John Fisher in the top 20.  Everything is relative of course, so I'll think out loud:

St. John Fisher, preseason top 10 from a highly regarded conference,  loses big at Mount Union, and loses close at home to (schizophrenic?) in-conference foe, 2-1 Hartwick.  End result, 3-2 St. John Fisher is ranked no. 20.

St. John's, preseason top 10 from a highly regarded conference,  loses a squeaker at home to the surprise conference tri-leader Concordia-Morehead (whose only loss was at ranked, faraway Willamette), and loses another squeaker at defending conference champion Bethel.  End result, 3-2 St. John's is 34th in voting with 10 points.

Wartburg, preseason top 20 from a preseason top 10 conference, ties loses in 2OT at other surprise MIAC tri-leader, undefeated Augsburg, then loses a squeaker at (surprise?) conference leader Buena Vista.  End result, 3-1-1 3-2 Wartburg is off the charts--zero points.

Polling is an inexact science, I understand.  Nonetheless, Fisher is no. 20, St. John's is 14 places behind them (after starting out in preseason 4 places ahead of Fisher), and Wartburg is at least 7 places behind St. John's.  Am I wrong to see less than 21 "teams of separation" between these 3 preseason ranked teams, who today each have 3-2 records?

I'll be curious to read K-Mack's Top 25 ruminations--exciting reading, in this weeks ATN!
Irritating SAT-lagging Union undergrads and alums since 1977

Ralph Turner

#102
In this week's Top 25, we know that MUC received 21 votes for first and 4 votes for 2nd.

(21 votes for #1)(25 points for #1) + (4 votes for #2)(24 points for #2) =
525 + 96 = 621 points.

I will bet that UMHB got this vote total.

(21 votes for #3)(23 points for #3) + (4 votes for #2)(24 points for #2) =
483 + 96 = 579 points.

I think that UWW got this vote total.

(4 votes for #1)(25 points for #1) + (15 votes for #2)(24 points for #2) + (4 votes for #3)(23 points for #3) + (2 votes for #4)(22 points for #4) =
100 + 360 + 92 + 44 = 596 points.

Just guessing...   ;)


Or a friend suggests this combination for UMHB

(5 votes for #2)(24 points for #2) + (19 votes for #3)(23 points for #3) + (1 vote for #4)(22 points for #4) =

(5)(24) + (19)(23) + (1)(22) = 579
120      +    437     +      22 = 579

Curiouser and curiouser...  ;)

Pat Coleman

Quote from: redswarm81 on October 06, 2008, 12:19:45 AM
I've been marveling at the entertainment provided by the Empire8, so that's where my mind is these days.  I guess I'm still surprised to see St. John Fisher in the top 20.  Everything is relative of course, so I'll think out loud:

St. John Fisher, preseason top 10 from a highly regarded conference,  loses big at Mount Union, and loses close at home to (schizophrenic?) in-conference foe, 2-1 Hartwick.  End result, 3-2 St. John Fisher is ranked no. 20.

St. John's, preseason top 10 from a highly regarded conference,  loses a squeaker at home to the surprise conference tri-leader Concordia-Morehead (whose only loss was at ranked, faraway Willamette), and loses another squeaker at defending conference champion Bethel.  End result, 3-2 St. John's is 34th in voting with 10 points.

Wartburg, preseason top 20 from a preseason top 10 conference, ties loses in 2OT at other surprise MIAC tri-leader, undefeated Augsburg, then loses a squeaker at (surprise?) conference leader Buena Vista.  End result, 3-1-1 3-2 Wartburg is off the charts--zero points.

Polling is an inexact science, I understand.  Nonetheless, Fisher is no. 20, St. John's is 14 places behind them (after starting out in preseason 4 places ahead of Fisher), and Wartburg is at least 7 places behind St. John's.  Am I wrong to see less than 21 "teams of separation" between these 3 preseason ranked teams, who today each have 3-2 records?

I'll be curious to read K-Mack's Top 25 ruminations--exciting reading, in this weeks ATN!

St. John Fisher beat Ithaca. St. John's best win is ... East Texas Baptist? Wartburg's best win is ... 2-2 Central? St. Norbert?

Your analysis is way way too simplistic. Not all 3-2 records are the same.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

redswarm81

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 06, 2008, 01:58:29 AM
Quote from: redswarm81 on October 06, 2008, 12:19:45 AM
I've been marveling at the entertainment provided by the Empire8, so that's where my mind is these days.  I guess I'm still surprised to see St. John Fisher in the top 20.  Everything is relative of course, so I'll think out loud:

St. John Fisher, preseason top 10 from a highly regarded conference,  loses big at Mount Union, and loses close at home to (schizophrenic?) in-conference foe, 2-1 Hartwick.  End result, 3-2 St. John Fisher is ranked no. 20.

St. John's, preseason top 10 from a highly regarded conference,  loses a squeaker at home to the surprise conference tri-leader Concordia-Morehead (whose only loss was at ranked, faraway Willamette), and loses another squeaker at defending conference champion Bethel.  End result, 3-2 St. John's is 34th in voting with 10 points.

Wartburg, preseason top 20 from a preseason top 10 conference, ties loses in 2OT at other surprise MIAC tri-leader, undefeated Augsburg, then loses a squeaker at (surprise?) conference leader Buena Vista.  End result, 3-1-1 3-2 Wartburg is off the charts--zero points.

Polling is an inexact science, I understand.  Nonetheless, Fisher is no. 20, St. John's is 14 places behind them (after starting out in preseason 4 places ahead of Fisher), and Wartburg is at least 7 places behind St. John's.  Am I wrong to see less than 21 "teams of separation" between these 3 preseason ranked teams, who today each have 3-2 records?

I'll be curious to read K-Mack's Top 25 ruminations--exciting reading, in this weeks ATN!

St. John Fisher beat (3-1) Ithaca. St. John's best win is ... (3-1) East Texas Baptist? Wartburg's best win is ... (preseason top 10) 2-2 Central? (4-1) St. Norbert?

Your analysis is way way too simplistic. Not all 3-2 records are the same.

Well, I suppose you're right, if way way too simplistic means analyzing two losses per team instead of analyzing one win per team.  Is it relevant that of the three teams, only St. John Fisher has a loss where they've not been competitive?  When the non-competitive loss is v. Mount Union, I can see how it could/should be ignored, but does a second loss demand that the nature of the first loss be considered?

I didn't mean to give the impression that I thought all 3-2 records are the same.  I infer from your analysis that St. John's appears to be the weakest of the three teams.  The voters disagree.
Irritating SAT-lagging Union undergrads and alums since 1977