Menu

Show posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Show posts Menu

Topics - HansenRatings

#1
Hey y'all, been a while since I posted, but I put together a preseason preview, and felt like sharing.

For each conference, preview shows comparisons of the opponent-adjusted ratings, projections for conference champions, & Pool C bids.

Getting into more detail, you can preview every team's schedule, with score predictions for each matchup, win probabilities, and projected won totals. I also detail the best players on each team from 2021, according to the yards above replacement statistics I've developed for my end of season awards. Because of the COVID year, I didn't even try to figure out who was coming back/graduated.

At the very end, you can see the weekly rating progression for your selected team over the last 25 seasons.

I hope you enjoy!

Here's the link:
https://public.tableau.com/views/HansenRatings2022TeamPreviews/2022DIIIFootballTeamPreviews?:language=en-US&publish=yes&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link

And here's a preview of what the ARC/Wartburg preview looks like:






#2
Since we can't watch real sports, I decided to create a fantasy tournament of sorts to pass the time. My ratings go back to 1997, so I created a 64-team bracket of some of the best teams of the last 20-some years. The qualifying teams were:


  • All national champs since 1997.
  • Using my ratings, the highest-rated team from each conference since 1997. Teams must have qualified for the playoffs. Schools with a natty since 1997 don't qualify, so for example, Linfield & PLU have had some of the best teams in the NWC, but Willamette's 2008 squad gets the "AQ" for the NWC.
  • 10 at-large/Pool C bids. Schools with a natty can get an at-large, but limit 1 at-large per school.

Then, I made some geographic decisions, and placed teams into 4 regions:

Mount Union & Cleveland (12 Mt Union teams, 2 teams each from JCU & CWRU)
Northeast & Great Lakes (this is a very broad term for teams from Michigan to Maine to Maryland)
Island & Minnesota Bracket (NWC, SCIAC, ASC, SCAC/SAA, USAC, ODAC, & MIAC teams)
Midwest (7 UWW teams and others from the WIAC, ARC, CCIW, MWC, & UMAC)

Seeds were determined first by how far a team advanced in the playoffs, and then using my ratings as a tie-breaker.

I'm doing voting on Twitter starting tomorrow at noon. The tweak to traditional voting is that an underdog (as determined by my ratings) needs more of the vote to advance. So for a team that is a 7-point 'dog, the implied win probability of that match-up would be right around 33%. So then the favorite would only need 33% of the vote to advance, and the underdog would need 68%.

Here are the teams in each of the 4 regions: