Pool C

Started by Pat Coleman, January 20, 2006, 02:35:54 PM

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fantastic50

#7500
Tonight's bubble games
7:00 Ramapo vs Montclair St - Ramapo is in with a win, iffy with a loss (Won 80-76 in OT)
8:00 UW-Oshkosh vs UW-LaCrosse - UW-O probably needs a win (Won 76-74)
8:00 Albright vs Arcadia - Albright is in with a win (Won 58-45)
8:00 Gwynedd Mercy vs Neumann - Must-win (and likely enough) for Mercy (Lost 102-85)
8:00 Augsburg at St Thomas - Augsburg must win tonight & Friday to reach the bubble (Won 67-55)
8:00 UW-River Falls vs UW-Whitewater - UW-RF likely needs the Pool A, but certainly must win tonight & Friday (Won 79-68)

Greek Tragedy

Oshkosh and River Falls both won. Oshkosh heads to Point on Friday and River Falls heads to Platteville. I believe the winner of the Oshkosh/Point game will get a Pool C bid. River Falls needs the AQ.
Pointers
Breed of a Champion
2004, 2005, 2010 and 2015 National Champions

Fantasy Leagues Commissioner

TGHIJGSTO!!!

fantastic50

Through Wednesday night's games...

Confirmed Pool A teams
Washington U. (22-2, 13-0 UAA, SOS 0.540, 7-2 vRRO, CE#1)

Locks & near-locks
100% (C#1) Hamilton (22-3, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.568, 6-2 vRRO, NE#1) 22% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.573 / 7-3
100% (A) UW-Platteville (20-3, 12-2 WIAC, SOS 0.573, 4-1 vRRO, CE#2) 68% A, proj. 0.840 / 0.579 / 5-2
100% (C#2) Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.583, 7-3 vRRO, NE#2) 18% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.590 / 8-4
100% (C#3) Williams (19-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.587, 6-4 vRRO, NE#4) 30% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.596 / 6-5
100% (A) Whitman (24-0, 16-0 NWC, SOS 0.509, 4-0 vRRO, WE#1) 76% A, proj. 0.962 / 0.524 / 4-1
100% (A) Augustana (20-5, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.566, 6-3 vRRO, CE#3) 50% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.571 / 7-4
100% (A) Wittenberg (23-2, 16-2 NCAC, SOS 0.524, 5-1 vRRO, GL#1) 64% A, proj. 0.889 / 0.532 / 5-2
100% (C#4) Wooster (21-5, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.559, 4-2 vRRO, GL#2) 17% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.566 / 5-3
100% (C#5) Marietta (21-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.557, 4-4 vRRO, GL#4) 38% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.567 / 6-5
100% (A) Eastern Connecticut (22-3, 13-1 LEC, SOS 0.531, 4-1 vRRO, NE#3) 71% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.537 / 4-2
100% (C#6) Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.585, 4-6 vRRO, NE#5) 0% A
100% (A) Cabrini (23-3, 16-2 CSAC, SOS 0.534, 2-1 vRRO, AT#1) 72% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.539 / 3-3
100% (C#7) New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.568, 6-4 vRRO, AT#2) 0% A
100% (A) St. John's (22-2, 19-1 MIAC, SOS 0.517, 3-1 vRRO, WE#2) 60% A, proj. 0.880 / 0.525 / 5-2
100% (A) John Carroll (21-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.534, 5-2 vRRO, GL#3) 46% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.544 / 7-3
100% (C#8) Johns Hopkins (21-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.525, 4-3 vRRO, MA#4) 35% A, proj. 0.808 / 0.536 / 4-4
100% (A) Swarthmore (21-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.528, 3-3 vRRO, MA#5) 43% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.539 / 4-4
100% (A) Christopher Newport (20-5, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.533, 3-1 vRRO, MA#2) 52% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.543 / 5-2
99% (C#9) York (Pa.) (21-4, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.523, 3-1 vRRO, MA#1) 25% A, fin 100% C, semi 99% C

Strong contenders
98% (C#10) Whitworth (22-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.513, 1-3 vRRO, WE#3) 18% A, fin 99% C, semi 94% C
97% (C#11) Emory (20-4, 11-2 UAA, SOS 0.523, 3-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A
96% (A) Ramapo (20-6, 16-3 NJAC, SOS 0.542, 5-5 vRRO, AT#3) 75% A, fin 96% C
95% (A) Albright (20-5, 12-4 MACC, SOS 0.541, 3-1 vRRO, MA#3) 71% A, fin 95% C
94% (C#12) St. Olaf (19-6, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.536, 3-2 vRRO, WE#4) 14% A, fin 99% C, semi 90% C
90% (C#13) Franklin and Marshall (20-5, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.525, 3-3 vRRO, MA#6) 17% A, fin 100% C, semi 87% C
84% (C#14) UW-Oshkosh (20-6, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.548, 2-3 vRRO, CE#4) 13% A, fin 100% C, semi 74% C
82% (A) Plattsburgh State (20-4, 17-1 SUNYAC, SOS 0.520, 3-3 vRRO, EA#2) 60% A, fin 98% C, semi 62% C
80% (A) Hobart (21-4, 16-2 LL, SOS 0.525, 1-2 vRRO, EA#1) 67% A, fin 85% C, semi 71% C

Bubble-in
72% (C#15) Illinois Wesleyan (19-6, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.547, 3-5 vRRO, CE#6) 18% A, fin 99% C, semi 58% C
65% (C#16) Loras (19-6, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.543, 2-3 vRRO, WE#7) 30% A, fin 81% C, semi 22% C
61% (A) Springfield (18-7, 12-2 NEWMAC, SOS 0.556, 4-2 vRRO, NE#6) 43% A, fin 85% C, semi 32% C
54% (A) Randolph-Macon (18-7, 12-4 ODAC, SOS 0.551, 3-3 vRRO, SO#2) 39% A, fin 89% C, semi 49% C, qtr 11% C
53% (C#17) UW-Stevens Point (17-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.603, 3-6 vRRO, CE#5) 14% A, fin 79% C, semi 30% C
53% (A) LeTourneau (22-3, 16-2 ASC, SOS 0.498, 2-2 vRRO, SO#4) 35% A, fin 88% C, semi 43% C, qtr 4% C

Bubble-out
45% (C#18) Brockport (19-6, 14-4 SUNYAC, SOS 0.532, 3-3 vRRO, EA#3) 27% A, fin 65% C, semi 9% C
44% (A) Salem State (22-3, 12-0 MASCAC, SOS 0.510, 1-2 vRRO, NE#10) 73% A, fin 56% C, semi 31% C
41% (C#19) MIT (20-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.528, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 35% A, fin 65% C, semi 18% C
39% (A) Maryville (Tenn.) (18-5, 14-2 USAC, SOS 0.525, 1-2 vRRO, SO#6) 53% A, fin 64% C, semi 21% C
34% (A) Amherst (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.565, 4-5 vRRO, NE#7) 31% A, fin 72% C, semi 11% C
32% (A) Nebraska Wesleyan (21-3, 13-3 IIAC, SOS 0.501, 3-1 vRRO, WE#5) 57% A, fin 58% C, semi 9% C
25% (C#20) Sul Ross State (19-4, 14-3 ASC, SOS 0.510, 1-1 vRRO, SO#3) 32% A, fin 68% C, semi 11% C, qtr 3% C
22% (C#21) Keene State (18-8, 11-3 LEC, SOS 0.563, 2-5 vRRO, NE#8) 21% A, fin 35% C, semi 3% C
20% (C#22) Tufts (17-8, 6-4 NESCAC, SOS 0.582, 2-7 vRRO, NE#11) 0% A

Fringe contenders
16% (A) Nichols (23-3, 16-2 CCC, SOS 0.509, 0-1 vRRO, NE) 60% A, fin 25% C, semi 8% C
9% (C#23) Ripon (17-6, 14-4 MWC, SOS 0.526, 1-2 vRRO, CE) 31% A, fin 22% C, semi 3% C
7% (C#24) Augsburg (19-7, 13-7 MIAC, SOS 0.527, 3-3 vRRO, WE#6) 10% A, fin 51% C, semi 1% C
6% (C#25) North Central (Ill.) (17-7, 11-5 CCIW, SOS 0.545, 3-4 vRRO, CE#7) 24% A, fin 15% C
6% (C#26) Gwynedd Mercy (20-6, 15-3 CSAC, SOS 0.518, 2-3 vRRO, AT#4) 0% A

Longshots
3% (C#27) Baldwin Wallace (18-8, 11-7 OAC, SOS 0.545, 3-5 vRRO, GL#6) 7% A, fin 14% C
2% (C#28) UW-River Falls (17-8, 7-7 WIAC, SOS 0.578, 2-6 vRRO, CE) 6% A, fin 16% C
1% (C#29) Methodist (17-5, 12-4 USAC, SOS 0.515, 0-1 vRRO, SO#8) 17% A, fin 2% C
<1% (C#30) Emory and Henry (19-6, 11-5 ODAC, SOS 0.514, 2-2 vRRO, SO#5) 14% A, fin 2% C
<1% (C#31) Texas-Dallas (18-6, 14-4 ASC, SOS 0.504, 1-2 vRRO, SO#7) 12% A, fin 2% C


Thursday's key bubble games
3:30 LeTourneau (must win) vs Howard Payne
7:00 Nichols (needs win & help, or Pool A berth) vs Roger Williams
7:00 Salem State (onto the bubble with a win) vs Fitchburg State
7:30 Baldwin Wallace (must win and have help, or Pool A berth) at John Carroll
8:00 Loras (almost must-win) vs Central
8:00 Nebraska Wesleyan (almost must-win) vs Wartburg
8:30 Sul Ross State (must win Thurs & Fri to reach the bubble) vs Texas-Tyler

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

It is down to the final week of the regular season. It is now or never. Win the conference tournament, earn the automatic qualifier, and a team will be playing in March. Don't win it and either hold out hope for an at-large selection or the season is over.

The season continues or ends on the bounce of a ball from here on out.

So who may be in jeopardy and who is sitting pretty? On Thursday's edition of Hoopsville, we start to read the tea leaves while also chatting with teams who are hoping to punch their ticket for the Road to Salem or Rochester themselves. Plus, we get a preview of what could be a fascinating weekend of NESCAC tournament action at Amherst.

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- Jamie Purdy, Piedmont women's coach
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Titan Q

#7504
My take through Wednesday night.  This does not account for any Thursday results...

(There are 21 Pool C bids available this year.)

Safely In
1. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .800 (20-5)/.583/7-3
2. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .880 (22-3)/.568/6-2
3. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .792 (19-5)/.587/6-4
4. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .808 (21-5)/.559/4-2
5. Marietta (GL/OAC): .808 (21-5)/.557/4-4
6. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).585/4-6
7. Johns Hopkins (MA/CC): .840 (21-4)/.525/4-3
8. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.568/6-4
9. York, Pa (MA/CAC): .840 (21-4)/.528/3-3
10. UW-Oshkosh (CE/WIAC): .769 (20-6)/.548/2-3
11. Emory (SO/UAA): .833 (20-4)/.523/3-2
12. UW-Stevens Point (CE/WIAC): .680 (17-8)/.603/3-6
13. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW): .760 (19-6)/.547/3-5
14. St. Olaf (WE/MIAC): .760 (19-6)/.536/3-2

At the Mercy of Bubble Burster Results
15. Loras (WE/IIAC): .760 (19-6)/.543/2-3
16. Brockport (EA/SUNYAC): .760 (19-6)/.532/3-3
17. Franklin and Marshall (MA/CC): .800 (20-5)/.525/3-3
18. MIT (NE/NEWMAC): .800 (20-5)/.528/2-3
19. Whitworth (WE/NWC): .800 (22-3)/.513/1-3
20. North Central (CE/CCIW): .708 (17-7)/.545/3-4
21. Keene State (NE/NESCAC): .692 (18-8)/.563/2-5
--------
22. Tufts (NE/NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.580/2-7
23. Sul Ross State (SO/ASC): .826 (19-4)/.510/1-1
24. Baldwin Wallace (GL/OAC): .692 (18-8)/.545/3-5
25. Augsburg (WE/MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.527/3-3

fantastic50

Confirmed Pool A teams
Washington U. (22-2, 13-0 UAA, SOS 0.541, 7-2 vRRO, CE#1)

Locks & near-locks
100% (C#1) Hamilton (22-3, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.568, 6-2 vRRO, NE#1) 23% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.573 / 7-3
100% (A) UW-Platteville (20-3, 12-2 WIAC, SOS 0.573, 4-1 vRRO, CE#2) 68% A, proj. 0.840 / 0.579 / 5-2
100% (C#2) Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.584, 7-3 vRRO, NE#2) 17% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.591 / 8-4
100% (C#3) Williams (19-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.587, 6-4 vRRO, NE#4) 30% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.596 / 6-5
100% (A) Whitman (25-0, 16-0 NWC, SOS 0.515, 4-0 vRRO, WE#1) 82% A, proj. 0.962 / 0.526 / 4-1
100% (A) Augustana (20-5, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.567, 6-3 vRRO, CE#3) 48% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.572 / 7-4
100% (C#4) Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.588, 4-6 vRRO, NE#5) 0% A
100% (A) Wittenberg (23-2, 16-2 NCAC, SOS 0.523, 5-1 vRRO, GL#1) 63% A, proj. 0.889 / 0.531 / 5-2
100% (C#5) Wooster (21-5, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.559, 4-2 vRRO, GL#2) 18% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.566 / 5-3
100% (C#6) Marietta (21-6, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.562, 4-5 vRRO, GL#4) 0% A
100% (A) Cabrini (23-3, 16-2 CSAC, SOS 0.534, 2-1 vRRO, AT#1) 72% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.539 / 3-3
100% (C#7) New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.567, 6-4 vRRO, AT#2) 0% A
100% (A) John Carroll (22-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.539, 6-2 vRRO, GL#3) 72% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.544 / 7-3
100% (A) St. John's (22-2, 19-1 MIAC, SOS 0.517, 3-1 vRRO, WE#2) 60% A, proj. 0.880 / 0.525 / 5-2
100% (A) Swarthmore (21-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.530, 3-3 vRRO, MA#5) 43% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.540 / 4-4
100% (C#8) Johns Hopkins (21-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.526, 4-3 vRRO, MA#4) 36% A, proj. 0.808 / 0.537 / 4-4
100% (C#9) York (Pa.) (22-4, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.528, 3-1 vRRO, MA#1) 31% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.538 / 4-3
100% (A) Christopher Newport (21-5, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.539, 3-1 vRRO, MA#2) 69% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.547 / 6-2
99% (A) Eastern Connecticut (22-3, 13-1 LEC, SOS 0.531, 4-1 vRRO, NE#3) 70% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.537 / 4-2
99% (A) Ramapo (20-6, 16-3 NJAC, SOS 0.543, 5-5 vRRO, AT#3) 76% A, fin 99% C
99% (C#10) Whitworth (23-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.521, 1-3 vRRO, WE#3) 18% A, fin 99% C
99% (C#11) St. Olaf (19-6, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.536, 3-2 vRRO, WE#4) 15% A, fin 99% C, semi 98% C

Strong contenders
98% (C#12) Emory (20-4, 11-2 UAA, SOS 0.523, 3-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A
95% (A) Albright (20-5, 12-4 MACC, SOS 0.541, 3-1 vRRO, MA#3) 71% A, fin 95% C
93% (C#13) Franklin and Marshall (20-5, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.525, 3-3 vRRO, MA#6) 15% A, fin 100% C, semi 91% C
90% (A) Plattsburgh State (20-4, 17-1 SUNYAC, SOS 0.521, 3-3 vRRO, EA#2) 61% A, fin 99% C, semi 79% C
83% (C#14) UW-Oshkosh (20-6, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.548, 2-3 vRRO, CE#4) 13% A, fin 100% C, semi 73% C
81% (A) Hobart (21-4, 16-2 LL, SOS 0.525, 1-2 vRRO, EA#1) 68% A, fin 85% C, semi 74% C

Bubble-in
79% (C#15) LeTourneau (23-3, 16-2 ASC, SOS 0.501, 2-2 vRRO, SO#4) 36% A, fin 98% C, semi 57% C
72% (C#16) Illinois Wesleyan (19-6, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.547, 3-5 vRRO, CE#6) 19% A, fin 100% C, semi 60% C
62% (A) Springfield (18-7, 12-2 NEWMAC, SOS 0.556, 4-2 vRRO, NE#6) 42% A, fin 84% C, semi 37% C
54% (A) Randolph-Macon (18-7, 12-4 ODAC, SOS 0.551, 3-3 vRRO, SO#2) 40% A, fin 89% C, semi 48% C, qtr 8% C
52% (C#17) UW-Stevens Point (17-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.603, 3-6 vRRO, CE#5) 14% A, fin 79% C, semi 27% C

Bubble-out
49% (A) Sul Ross State (20-4, 14-3 ASC, SOS 0.514, 1-1 vRRO, SO#3) 38% A, fin 90% C, semi 16% C
45% (C#18) Brockport (19-6, 14-4 SUNYAC, SOS 0.532, 3-3 vRRO, EA#3) 27% A, fin 67% C, semi 7% C
45% (A) Nichols (24-3, 16-2 CCC, SOS 0.515, 0-1 vRRO, NE) 75% A, fin 45% C
41% (C#19) MIT (20-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.528, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 36% A, fin 70% C, semi 15% C
39% (A) Maryville (Tenn.) (18-5, 14-2 USAC, SOS 0.525, 1-2 vRRO, SO#6) 54% A, fin 66% C, semi 19% C
35% (A) Amherst (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.564, 4-5 vRRO, NE#7) 31% A, fin 73% C, semi 13% C
29% (C#20) Salem State (22-4, 12-0 MASCAC, SOS 0.510, 1-2 vRRO, NE#10) 0% A
24% (C#21) Keene State (18-8, 11-3 LEC, SOS 0.564, 2-5 vRRO, NE#8) 21% A, fin 38% C, semi 3% C
23% (A) Nebraska Wesleyan (22-3, 13-3 IIAC, SOS 0.506, 4-1 vRRO, WE#5) 88% A, fin 23% C

Fringe contenders
18% (C#22) Loras (19-7, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.542, 2-3 vRRO, WE#7) 0% A
18% (C#23) Tufts (17-8, 6-4 NESCAC, SOS 0.580, 2-7 vRRO, NE#11) 0% A
7% (C#24) Augsburg (19-7, 13-7 MIAC, SOS 0.527, 3-3 vRRO, WE#6) 9% A, fin 51% C
6% (C#25) North Central (Ill.) (17-7, 11-5 CCIW, SOS 0.546, 3-4 vRRO, CE#7) 26% A, fin 15% C
5% (A) Ripon (17-6, 14-4 MWC, SOS 0.525, 1-2 vRRO, CE) 32% A, fin 15% C, semi 1% C

Longshots
4% (C#26) Gwynedd Mercy (20-6, 15-3 CSAC, SOS 0.518, 2-3 vRRO, AT#4) 0% A
2% (C#27) UW-River Falls (17-8, 7-7 WIAC, SOS 0.578, 2-6 vRRO, CE) 6% A, fin 18% C, semi 1% C
1% (C#28) East Texas Baptist (20-6, 12-4 ASC, SOS 0.517, 1-5 vRRO, SO) 10% A, fin 2% C
1% (C#29) Texas-Dallas (19-6, 13-4 ASC, SOS 0.510, 1-2 vRRO, SO#7) 16% A, fin 2% C


Today's bubble games
1:00 - ODAC: #1 Randolph-Macon (18-7, 12-4, needs to win to stay bubble or better) vs #9 Eastern Mennonite (10-14, 5-11)
5:30 - SUNYAC: #6 SUNY Oneonta (13-13, 8-10) vs #2 Brockport (19-6, 14-4, needs a win to stay on bubble)
6:00 - ASC: #E1 LeTourneau (23-3, 16-2, in with a win, bubble if not) vs #E3 East Texas Baptist (20-6, 12-4)
6:00 - CC: #2 Johns Hopkins (21-4, 15-3, safe) vs #3 Franklin and Marshall (20-5, 14-4, probably already in)
6:00 - CCIW: #3 North Central (17-7, 11-5, thin Pool C hopes with a win) vs #2 Illinois Wesleyan (19-6, 12-4, lock with a win, bubble if not)
6:00 - MWC: #3 St. Norbert (19-6, 14-4) vs #2 Ripon (17-6, 14-4, thin Pool C hopes with a win)
7:00 - USAC: #E2 Methodist (17-5, 12-4) at #W1 Maryville (Tenn.) (18-5, 14-2, strong bubble team with a win)
7:30 - LEC: #3 Mass-Boston (15-10, 9-5) vs #2 Keene State (18-8, 11-3, needs a win & help, or the Pool A bid)
7:30 - SUNYAC: Oswego State (14-12, 10-8) at Plattsburgh State (20-4, 17-1, already in decent shape, but a lock with a win)
8:00 - MIAC: #4 Augsburg (19-7, 13-7, must win to reach the bubble) at #1 St. John's (22-2, 19-1, safe)
8:00 - WIAC: #3 UW-Oshkosh (20-6, 9-5) at #2 UW-Stevens Point (17-8, 11-3, decent shape with a win, some hope with a loss)
8:30 - ASC: #E2 Texas-Dallas (19-6, 13-4) at #W1 Sul Ross State (20-4, 14-3, almost a play-in for SRSU tonight)

Known potential bid thief games
(A bid thief is a team with little/no Pool C chance that wins the automatic bid of a conference that has at least one likely Pool C team)
Sat - MACC final: #2 Lebanon Valley (17-9, 10-6) at #1 Albright (20-5, 12-4)
Sat - CSAC final:#3 Neumann (20-7, 13-5) at #1 Cabrini (23-3, 16-2)
Sat - LL semis: #5 Skidmore (15-10, 10-8) at #1 Hobart (21-4, 16-2)
Sat - NJAC final: #6 William Paterson (16-11, 9-9) t #1 Ramapo (20-6, 16-3)
Sat - OAC final: #3 Ohio Northern (19-8, 12-6) at #1 John Carroll (22-5, 14-4)

fantastic50

Glad to see TitanQ continuing to post his analysis here.  The consensus of multiple independent perspectives is usually a better predictor than any one of them alone!

HOPEful

Quote from: fantastic50 on February 23, 2018, 11:27:00 AM
Glad to see TitanQ continuing to post his analysis here.  The consensus of multiple independent perspectives is usually a better predictor than any one of them alone!

Agreed!!! Kudos and thank you to you both!
Let's go Dutchmen!

2015-2016 1-&-Done Tournament Fantasy League Co-Champion

mailsy

I appreciate all the work you guys do on this.+1's. It really keeps me engaged in the process. Sorry to see Gwynedd falling further in their chances to get into the tourney.(It's their own fault) It was great having 2 CSAC teams in last year. Only way 2 are getting in this year is Cabrini losing to Neumann. And I REALLY don't want to see that happening.
Cabrini Cavaliers 2012 National Runner-Up.
First official poster on the Atlantic East forum board.

ronk

Quote from: fantastic50 on February 23, 2018, 10:43:49 AM
Confirmed Pool A teams
Washington U. (22-2, 13-0 UAA, SOS 0.541, 7-2 vRRO, CE#1)

Locks & near-locks
100% (C#1) Hamilton (22-3, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.568, 6-2 vRRO, NE#1) 23% A, proj. 0.846 / 0.573 / 7-3
100% (A) UW-Platteville (20-3, 12-2 WIAC, SOS 0.573, 4-1 vRRO, CE#2) 68% A, proj. 0.840 / 0.579 / 5-2
100% (C#2) Wesleyan (20-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.584, 7-3 vRRO, NE#2) 17% A, proj. 0.769 / 0.591 / 8-4
100% (C#3) Williams (19-5, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.587, 6-4 vRRO, NE#4) 30% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.596 / 6-5
100% (A) Whitman (25-0, 16-0 NWC, SOS 0.515, 4-0 vRRO, WE#1) 82% A, proj. 0.962 / 0.526 / 4-1
100% (A) Augustana (20-5, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.567, 6-3 vRRO, CE#3) 48% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.572 / 7-4
100% (C#4) Middlebury (19-6, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.588, 4-6 vRRO, NE#5) 0% A
100% (A) Wittenberg (23-2, 16-2 NCAC, SOS 0.523, 5-1 vRRO, GL#1) 63% A, proj. 0.889 / 0.531 / 5-2
100% (C#5) Wooster (21-5, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.559, 4-2 vRRO, GL#2) 18% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.566 / 5-3
100% (C#6) Marietta (21-6, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.562, 4-5 vRRO, GL#4) 0% A
100% (A) Cabrini (23-3, 16-2 CSAC, SOS 0.534, 2-1 vRRO, AT#1) 72% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.539 / 3-3
100% (C#7) New Jersey City (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.567, 6-4 vRRO, AT#2) 0% A
100% (A) John Carroll (22-5, 14-4 OAC, SOS 0.539, 6-2 vRRO, GL#3) 72% A, proj. 0.786 / 0.544 / 7-3
100% (A) St. John's (22-2, 19-1 MIAC, SOS 0.517, 3-1 vRRO, WE#2) 60% A, proj. 0.880 / 0.525 / 5-2
100% (A) Swarthmore (21-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.530, 3-3 vRRO, MA#5) 43% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.540 / 4-4
100% (C#8) Johns Hopkins (21-4, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.526, 4-3 vRRO, MA#4) 36% A, proj. 0.808 / 0.537 / 4-4
100% (C#9) York (Pa.) (22-4, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.528, 3-1 vRRO, MA#1) 31% A, proj. 0.815 / 0.538 / 4-3
100% (A) Christopher Newport (21-5, 14-4 CAC, SOS 0.539, 3-1 vRRO, MA#2) 69% A, proj. 0.778 / 0.547 / 6-2
99% (A) Eastern Connecticut (22-3, 13-1 LEC, SOS 0.531, 4-1 vRRO, NE#3) 70% A, proj. 0.852 / 0.537 / 4-2
99% (A) Ramapo (20-6, 16-3 NJAC, SOS 0.543, 5-5 vRRO, AT#3) 76% A, fin 99% C
99% (C#10) Whitworth (23-3, 14-2 NWC, SOS 0.521, 1-3 vRRO, WE#3) 18% A, fin 99% C
99% (C#11) St. Olaf (19-6, 15-5 MIAC, SOS 0.536, 3-2 vRRO, WE#4) 15% A, fin 99% C, semi 98% C

Strong contenders
98% (C#12) Emory (20-4, 11-2 UAA, SOS 0.523, 3-2 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A
95% (A) Albright (20-5, 12-4 MACC, SOS 0.541, 3-1 vRRO, MA#3) 71% A, fin 95% C
93% (C#13) Franklin and Marshall (20-5, 14-4 CC, SOS 0.525, 3-3 vRRO, MA#6) 15% A, fin 100% C, semi 91% C
90% (A) Plattsburgh State (20-4, 17-1 SUNYAC, SOS 0.521, 3-3 vRRO, EA#2) 61% A, fin 99% C, semi 79% C
83% (C#14) UW-Oshkosh (20-6, 9-5 WIAC, SOS 0.548, 2-3 vRRO, CE#4) 13% A, fin 100% C, semi 73% C
81% (A) Hobart (21-4, 16-2 LL, SOS 0.525, 1-2 vRRO, EA#1) 68% A, fin 85% C, semi 74% C

Bubble-in
79% (C#15) LeTourneau (23-3, 16-2 ASC, SOS 0.501, 2-2 vRRO, SO#4) 36% A, fin 98% C, semi 57% C
72% (C#16) Illinois Wesleyan (19-6, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.547, 3-5 vRRO, CE#6) 19% A, fin 100% C, semi 60% C
62% (A) Springfield (18-7, 12-2 NEWMAC, SOS 0.556, 4-2 vRRO, NE#6) 42% A, fin 84% C, semi 37% C
54% (A) Randolph-Macon (18-7, 12-4 ODAC, SOS 0.551, 3-3 vRRO, SO#2) 40% A, fin 89% C, semi 48% C, qtr 8% C
52% (C#17) UW-Stevens Point (17-8, 11-3 WIAC, SOS 0.603, 3-6 vRRO, CE#5) 14% A, fin 79% C, semi 27% C

Bubble-out
49% (A) Sul Ross State (20-4, 14-3 ASC, SOS 0.514, 1-1 vRRO, SO#3) 38% A, fin 90% C, semi 16% C
45% (C#18) Brockport (19-6, 14-4 SUNYAC, SOS 0.532, 3-3 vRRO, EA#3) 27% A, fin 67% C, semi 7% C
45% (A) Nichols (24-3, 16-2 CCC, SOS 0.515, 0-1 vRRO, NE) 75% A, fin 45% C
41% (C#19) MIT (20-5, 10-4 NEWMAC, SOS 0.528, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 36% A, fin 70% C, semi 15% C
39% (A) Maryville (Tenn.) (18-5, 14-2 USAC, SOS 0.525, 1-2 vRRO, SO#6) 54% A, fin 66% C, semi 19% C
35% (A) Amherst (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.564, 4-5 vRRO, NE#7) 31% A, fin 73% C, semi 13% C
29% (C#20) Salem State (22-4, 12-0 MASCAC, SOS 0.510, 1-2 vRRO, NE#10) 0% A
24% (C#21) Keene State (18-8, 11-3 LEC, SOS 0.564, 2-5 vRRO, NE#8) 21% A, fin 38% C, semi 3% C
23% (A) Nebraska Wesleyan (22-3, 13-3 IIAC, SOS 0.506, 4-1 vRRO, WE#5) 88% A, fin 23% C

Fringe contenders
18% (C#22) Loras (19-7, 12-4 IIAC, SOS 0.542, 2-3 vRRO, WE#7) 0% A
18% (C#23) Tufts (17-8, 6-4 NESCAC, SOS 0.580, 2-7 vRRO, NE#11) 0% A
7% (C#24) Augsburg (19-7, 13-7 MIAC, SOS 0.527, 3-3 vRRO, WE#6) 9% A, fin 51% C
6% (C#25) North Central (Ill.) (17-7, 11-5 CCIW, SOS 0.546, 3-4 vRRO, CE#7) 26% A, fin 15% C
5% (A) Ripon (17-6, 14-4 MWC, SOS 0.525, 1-2 vRRO, CE) 32% A, fin 15% C, semi 1% C

Longshots
4% (C#26) Gwynedd Mercy (20-6, 15-3 CSAC, SOS 0.518, 2-3 vRRO, AT#4) 0% A
2% (C#27) UW-River Falls (17-8, 7-7 WIAC, SOS 0.578, 2-6 vRRO, CE) 6% A, fin 18% C, semi 1% C
1% (C#28) East Texas Baptist (20-6, 12-4 ASC, SOS 0.517, 1-5 vRRO, SO) 10% A, fin 2% C
1% (C#29) Texas-Dallas (19-6, 13-4 ASC, SOS 0.510, 1-2 vRRO, SO#7) 16% A, fin 2% C


Today's bubble games
1:00 - ODAC: #1 Randolph-Macon (18-7, 12-4, needs to win to stay bubble or better) vs #9 Eastern Mennonite (10-14, 5-11)
5:30 - SUNYAC: #6 SUNY Oneonta (13-13, 8-10) vs #2 Brockport (19-6, 14-4, needs a win to stay on bubble)
6:00 - ASC: #E1 LeTourneau (23-3, 16-2, in with a win, bubble if not) vs #E3 East Texas Baptist (20-6, 12-4)
6:00 - CC: #2 Johns Hopkins (21-4, 15-3, safe) vs #3 Franklin and Marshall (20-5, 14-4, probably already in)
6:00 - CCIW: #3 North Central (17-7, 11-5, thin Pool C hopes with a win) vs #2 Illinois Wesleyan (19-6, 12-4, lock with a win, bubble if not)
6:00 - MWC: #3 St. Norbert (19-6, 14-4) vs #2 Ripon (17-6, 14-4, thin Pool C hopes with a win)
7:00 - USAC: #E2 Methodist (17-5, 12-4) at #W1 Maryville (Tenn.) (18-5, 14-2, strong bubble team with a win)
7:30 - LEC: #3 Mass-Boston (15-10, 9-5) vs #2 Keene State (18-8, 11-3, needs a win & help, or the Pool A bid)
7:30 - SUNYAC: Oswego State (14-12, 10-8) at Plattsburgh State (20-4, 17-1, already in decent shape, but a lock with a win)
8:00 - MIAC: #4 Augsburg (19-7, 13-7, must win to reach the bubble) at #1 St. John's (22-2, 19-1, safe)
8:00 - WIAC: #3 UW-Oshkosh (20-6, 9-5) at #2 UW-Stevens Point (17-8, 11-3, decent shape with a win, some hope with a loss)
8:30 - ASC: #E2 Texas-Dallas (19-6, 13-4) at #W1 Sul Ross State (20-4, 14-3, almost a play-in for SRSU tonight)

Known potential bid thief games
(A bid thief is a team with little/no Pool C chance that wins the automatic bid of a conference that has at least one likely Pool C team)
Sat - MACC final: #2 Lebanon Valley (17-9, 10-6) at #1 Albright (20-5, 12-4)
Sat - CSAC final:#3 Neumann (20-7, 13-5) at #1 Cabrini (23-3, 16-2)
Sat - LL semis: #5 Skidmore (15-10, 10-8) at #1 Hobart (21-4, 16-2)
Sat - NJAC final: #6 William Paterson (16-11, 9-9) t #1 Ramapo (20-6, 16-3)
Sat - OAC final: #3 Ohio Northern (19-8, 12-6) at #1 John Carroll (22-5, 14-4)

Would think that Juniata(20-4, 10-4 LAND, SOS .468, 2-0 vrro, M/A #7) should be in the bubble-out category, at least.

Greek Tragedy

If NCC beat IWU tonight, they would've beaten them TWICE this week. I could see NCC jumping IWU if they win, giving them a better chance at the Pool C if they fail to win tomorrow.
Pointers
Breed of a Champion
2004, 2005, 2010 and 2015 National Champions

Fantasy Leagues Commissioner

TGHIJGSTO!!!

Gregory Sager

Both of them would be road wins, too.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

Titan Q

#7512
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 23, 2018, 12:59:09 PM
If NCC beat IWU tonight, they would've beaten them TWICE this week. I could see NCC jumping IWU if they win, giving them a better chance at the Pool C if they fail to win tomorrow.

It would be:

* Illinois Wesleyan: .731 (19-7), .547 ish, 2-4  (assuming Wheaton drops out)

* North Central: .692 (18-8), .546 ish, 2-5 (assuming Wheaton drops out)


I think IWU stays ahead there...that is a significant difference in winning %, with the other numbers being close.  If you are the Central committee, and you are stacking teams up based on who has the best Pool C shot (which is ultimately what they do), I think IWU has to have the edge in this scenario.  If you put NCC higher in this scenario, you hurt the region's Pool C chances because of the difference in winning % (again, other numbers being really close). 

For context, here is what the numbers look like (and remember, above I am already tacking losses onto IWU and NCC...all of the teams that end up as Pool C candidates will lose another game too)...

Quote from: Titan Q on February 22, 2018, 10:46:05 PM
My take through Wednesday night.  This does not account for any Thursday results...

(There are 21 Pool C bids available this year.)

Safely In
1. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .800 (20-5)/.583/7-3
2. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .880 (22-3)/.568/6-2
3. Williams (NE/NESCAC): .792 (19-5)/.587/6-4
4. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .808 (21-5)/.559/4-2
5. Marietta (GL/OAC): .808 (21-5)/.557/4-4
6. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .760 (19-6).585/4-6
7. Johns Hopkins (MA/CC): .840 (21-4)/.525/4-3
8. New Jersey City (AT/NJAC): .731 (19-7)/.568/6-4
9. York, Pa (MA/CAC): .840 (21-4)/.528/3-3
10. UW-Oshkosh (CE/WIAC): .769 (20-6)/.548/2-3
11. Emory (SO/UAA): .833 (20-4)/.523/3-2
12. UW-Stevens Point (CE/WIAC): .680 (17-8)/.603/3-6
13. Illinois Wesleyan (CE/CCIW): .760 (19-6)/.547/3-5
14. St. Olaf (WE/MIAC): .760 (19-6)/.536/3-2

At the Mercy of Bubble Burster Results
15. Loras (WE/IIAC): .760 (19-6)/.543/2-3
16. Brockport (EA/SUNYAC): .760 (19-6)/.532/3-3
17. Franklin and Marshall (MA/CC): .800 (20-5)/.525/3-3
18. MIT (NE/NEWMAC): .800 (20-5)/.528/2-3
19. Whitworth (WE/NWC): .800 (22-3)/.513/1-3
20. North Central (CE/CCIW): .708 (17-7)/.545/3-4
21. Keene State (NE/NESCAC): .692 (18-8)/.563/2-5
--------
22. Tufts (NE/NESCAC): .680 (17-8)/.580/2-7
23. Sul Ross State (SO/ASC): .826 (19-4)/.510/1-1
24. Baldwin Wallace (GL/OAC): .692 (18-8)/.545/3-5
25. Augsburg (WE/MIAC): .731 (19-7)/.527/3-3

IWU would be very much on the bubble with a loss tonight...but I think pretty clearly higher than NCC in the pecking order based on the overall numbers.

Wheaton staying ranked vs falling out is big for NCC since the Cards sweep the Thunder.  If Wheaton loses to Augie tonight, I think Wheaton falls out for sure.

augie77

IWU versus North Central tonight will be a neutral site game.

Titan Q

Where the committee slots UW-Stevens Point in the final Central ranking is big too.  As you can see, I have the Pointers in at #12...but you never really know from year to year how the committee feels about a sub-.700 winning percentage number.