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Messages - jknezek

#61
Region 3 (South Atlantic-Ish) Fan Poll Week 10
Conferences: ASC, ODAC, SAA, USASAC










Rank
School
Points
Weekly Change
Voter Breakdown
1
Trinity (TX) (6)
42
0
1 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 1
2
R-MC
35
0
2 , 2 , 2 , 2 , 3 , 2
3
Berry
30
0
3 , 3 , 3 , 4 , 2 , 3
4
Hardin-Simmons
25
0
4 , 4 , 4 , 3 , 4 , 4
5
Belhaven
15
0
6 , 5 , 5 , 7 , 5 , 5
6
W&L
11
---
5 , 7 , 7 , 5 , 7 , 6
7
Huntingdon
8
0
7 , 6 , 6 , 6 , 7

Also Receiving Votes:
UMHB (2)

Newly Ranked: W&L
Dropped Out: UMHB (Prev:6), Bridgewater (Prev:7)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 7 = 7th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: jknezek, BSCpanthers, Wild Horse Rider, Ralph Turner, Cowboy2, Hawks88
#62
I think so, but there is precious little available on how the teams are chosen and W&L has not announced they will host. So I'm interested to see what happens in the end.

I suspect nothing will be announced until after the playoff field is selected. While the odds of W&L getting an at-large are... Beyond Miniscule... they are still technically in play until the last selection is made.

Also, there could be a complication if Lycoming wins and Susquehanna does not get an at-large. Likely they would host Bridgewater, and it's possible that no one wants a rematch, or that a rematch is excluded by the documents. It would make sense.

So there is definitely a chance that what seems logical and easy will not be the way it turns out.

I also suspect the vast majority of my interest in these games is due to the Wilkes/W&L possibilities!

*** Edited to change AQ to at-large in 4th sentence
#63
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
November 06, 2023, 03:45:35 PM
Quote from: SierraFD3soccer on November 06, 2023, 03:35:39 PM
Quote from: paclassic89 on November 06, 2023, 03:29:37 PM
On the less favorable side, a tough draw for F&M who are looking at a potential 2nd round matchup with Conn College

Definitely as to Conn College.  Same as two years ago when they had to play Middlebury.

W&L does appear to have a favorable weekend, but I would not sleep on W. Conn or Oneonta.  Both are proven teams this year and played very well last year. W. Conn is not your usual team as well.

Like I said, no gimmes.

Honestly, W&L's season doesn't lead me to expect much. Their best win was the regular season win against Lynchburg. Other than that, a few ties and losses to the best teams they played. There just wasn't a game that they won this season where you look and say they beat a for sure top 25 caliber team. That just doesn't bode well for winning much in the tournament, at home or not.

So I do think it was surprisingly kind to them, especially as host, but maybe not given Lexington wasn't exactly a fortress with 3 of 4 losses this season coming at home.
#64
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
November 06, 2023, 03:00:33 PM
I'm going to call that a more favorable draw than W&L deserved in my opinion. Playing at home is... very kind, and that's not an unwinnable pod, even for a team that has struggled against top shelf opponents. No gimmes, especially for a team that has struggled against top shelf opponents, but no one in that pod seems like a runaway freight train.

#65
**** Cross Posted from the ODAC Board ****

Well... R-MC has sown up the ODAC again. Very impressive. I believe they have lost something like 3 conference games since the end of the 2017 season. Never know what will happen in a rivalry like The Game, but I don't doubt that R-MC is the better team going in. I hope the Jackets make a nice run in the playoffs. They certainly have the tools to be dangerous.

As for the rest of the post-season, lets talk about this year's first ever Chesapeake Challenge, something I find way more exciting than a post-season game against Apprentice! Still lots of possibilities for teams on both the Landmark and ODAC side. The Challenge is set up this year so #2 in the ODAC (or the first ranked team left out of the playoffs, which will be #2 this year) hosts #3 in the Landmark (again, accounting for playoff teams. It is possible that the Landmark could get 2 teams in the playoffs if Lycoming beats Susquehanna to the AQ. Susquehanna will hold one win over a RR opponent in Cortland, possibly 2 with Brockport. Bridgewater losing to W&L didn't help for a third. But Susquehanna would definitely be in the mix for a Pool C if they lose to Lycoming.

The ODAC is much more straight forward. Assuming the order of finish is logical, conference record with ties broken by head to head, W&L has 2nd place and hosting duties locked up. Even an upset by Shenandoah won't knock W&L out of second as they would have, at most, 2 conference losses. The only other teams that can tie with 2 conference losses are Bridgewater and H-SC, and W&L holds h2h wins against both.

So that leaves the ODAC 3rd place, and the trip to the Landmark's first non-NCAA playoff team, up for grabs. There are two teams in play, Bridgewater who hosts Guilford and H-SC who travels to Ashland. In theory, if both H-SC and Bridgewater lose, and Shenandoah beats W&L, they could all be 4-3 in conference. But both H-SC and Bridgewater hold head to head wins over Shenandoah.

Bridgewater, by the slimmest of 1 pt margins, has the head to head over H-SC. So if Bridgewater beats Guilford they should be the third place ODAC team and travel to the first non-NCAA Landmark team. If Bridgewater loses, and H-SC upsets R-MC in The Game, then H-SC would hold 3rd place in the ODAC. If both Bridgewater and H-SC lose, Bridgewater with the h2h should get the nod.

Sorting out the Landmark is somewhat harder.

First scenario is easier.... Susquehanna beats Lycoming at home. Susquehanna gets the AQ, Lycoming is farther from the running for a Pool C than W&L. At this point, Lycoming is 4-2 in conference and the only thing that matters is who wins the Wilkes at Moravian game. If Wilkes wins, Wilkes will get the 2nd spot and host 3rd in the ODAC, as they have a head to head over Lycoming, and Lycoming will travel to W&L. If Moravian wins, Lycoming will be second in the Landmark courtesy of a head to head, they will host 3rd in the ODAC and Moravian will travel to W&L.

Second scenario... Lycoming beats Susquehanna for the AQ. Susquehanna will be second in the Landmark courtesy of the head to head loss. If they don't get a Pool C, they will host ODAC #3, and the winner of Wilkes at Moravian will travel to W&L.

Third scenario... If Susquehanna does get a Pool C, then the winner of Wilkes at Moravian is the Landmark host. The Landmark travel team will be Moravian if Wilkes wins, courtesy of a head to head over Catholic. If Moravian wins, it will be Catholic travelling to Lexington courtesy of a head to head over Wilkes if they beat hapless Juniata.

One thing I like about these post-season games is that it gives teams more to play for the last week or two of the season. Sadly it doesn't look like I'll get the W&L hosting Wilkes game I was hoping for, my alma mater vs my parents. My dad and I had made plans to travel to that game if it would have happened. But maybe over the next couple contract years we will get the chance.

As for how I think this all shakes out? R-MC (AQ), W&L (host Chesapeake Challenge), Bridgewater (travel CC), Susquehanna (AQ), Lycoming (host CC), Moravian (travel CC) seems most likely to me. Prior to Wilkes losing to Catholic last weekend, I would have thought they would have taken second in the Landmark, pushing Lycoming to the travel spot. But that was not a good loss for Wilkes. I just don't see Bridgewater losing to Guilford or Susquehanna losing to Lycoming. That leaves only Moravian hosting Wilkes to sort stuff out.

Of course, all this is dependent on using head to head to break placement ties. If there is something else in the documents, then I've wasted my time.
#66
Well... R-MC has sown up the ODAC again. Very impressive. I believe they have lost something like 3 conference games since the end of the 2017 season. Never know what will happen in a rivalry like The Game, but I don't doubt that R-MC is the better team going in. I hope the Jackets make a nice run in the playoffs. They certainly have the tools to be dangerous.

As for the rest of the post-season, lets talk about this year's first ever Chesapeake Challenge, something I find way more exciting than a post-season game against Apprentice! Still lots of possibilities for teams on both the Landmark and ODAC side. The Challenge is set up this year so #2 in the ODAC (or the first ranked team left out of the playoffs, which will be #2 this year) hosts #3 in the Landmark (again, accounting for playoff teams. It is possible that the Landmark could get 2 teams in the playoffs if Lycoming beats Susquehanna to the AQ. Susquehanna will hold one win over a RR opponent in Cortland, possibly 2 with Brockport. Bridgewater losing to W&L didn't help for a third. But Susquehanna would definitely be in the mix for a Pool C if they lose to Lycoming.

The ODAC is much more straight forward. Assuming the order of finish is logical, conference record with ties broken by head to head, W&L has 2nd place and hosting duties locked up. Even an upset by Shenandoah won't knock W&L out of second as they would have, at most, 2 conference losses. The only other teams that can tie with 2 conference losses are Bridgewater and H-SC, and W&L holds h2h wins against both.

So that leaves the ODAC 3rd place, and the trip to the Landmark's first non-NCAA playoff team, up for grabs. There are two teams in play, Bridgewater who hosts Guilford and H-SC who travels to Ashland. In theory, if both H-SC and Bridgewater lose, and Shenandoah beats W&L, they could all be 4-3 in conference. But both H-SC and Bridgewater hold head to head wins over Shenandoah.

Bridgewater, by the slimmest of 1 pt margins, has the head to head over H-SC. So if Bridgewater beats Guilford they should be the third place ODAC team and travel to the first non-NCAA Landmark team. If Bridgewater loses, and H-SC upsets R-MC in The Game, then H-SC would hold 3rd place in the ODAC. If both Bridgewater and H-SC lose, Bridgewater with the h2h should get the nod.

Sorting out the Landmark is somewhat harder.

First scenario is easier.... Susquehanna beats Lycoming at home. Susquehanna gets the AQ, Lycoming is farther from the running for a Pool C than W&L. At this point, Lycoming is 4-2 in conference and the only thing that matters is who wins the Wilkes at Moravian game. If Wilkes wins, Wilkes will get the 2nd spot and host 3rd in the ODAC, as they have a head to head over Lycoming, and Lycoming will travel to W&L. If Moravian wins, Lycoming will be second in the Landmark courtesy of a head to head, they will host 3rd in the ODAC and Moravian will travel to W&L.

Second scenario... Lycoming beats Susquehanna for the AQ. Susquehanna will be second in the Landmark courtesy of the head to head loss. If they don't get a Pool C, they will host ODAC #3, and the winner of Wilkes at Moravian will travel to W&L.

Third scenario... If Susquehanna does get a Pool C, then the winner of Wilkes at Moravian is the Landmark host. The Landmark travel team will be Moravian if Wilkes wins, courtesy of a head to head over Catholic. If Moravian wins, it will be Catholic travelling to Lexington courtesy of a head to head over Wilkes if they beat hapless Juniata.

One thing I like about these post-season games is that it gives teams more to play for the last week or two of the season. Sadly it doesn't look like I'll get the W&L hosting Wilkes game I was hoping for, my alma mater vs my parents. My dad and I had made plans to travel to that game if it would have happened. But maybe over the next couple contract years we will get the chance.

As for how I think this all shakes out? R-MC (AQ), W&L (host Chesapeake Challenge), Bridgewater (travel CC), Susquehanna (AQ), Lycoming (host CC), Moravian (travel CC) seems most likely to me. Prior to Wilkes losing to Catholic last weekend, I would have thought they would have taken second in the Landmark, pushing Lycoming to the travel spot. But that was not a good loss for Wilkes. I just don't see Bridgewater losing to Guilford or Susquehanna losing to Lycoming. That leaves only Moravian hosting Wilkes to sort stuff out.

Of course, all this is dependent on using head to head to break placement ties. If there is something else in the documents, then I've wasted my time.
#67
Quote from: BSCpanthers on November 03, 2023, 04:01:18 PM
The students have received emails fro, the school stating they will be open through spring semester.  Not sure where the money came from, don't know for how long it will last, but for my personal needs, it will mean my child will be able to graduate from BSC and move on to his next stop in life.  For the juniors and lower, not sure what it means.  Without a guarantee of further classes, not sure how you keep the freshman or sophomores on campus past this fall.  As I learn more, I'll pass it along.

I'm glad. It would have been brutal to shut down mid-year. So unfair to the upperclassmen. But yeah, if my kid is not a senior, they are out of there ASAP.
#68
Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 02, 2023, 12:15:20 PM
Quote from: jknezek on November 02, 2023, 12:05:47 PM
I think you are looking at a toss-up here. If these two teams get paired together, and I agree that's likely even if it shouldn't happen, both have solid cases for hosting. There is simply no way to know, ahead of time, which of the criteria the committee will rely on to make that final decision.

Agree, but you'll get a really good insight with next week's regional rankings.  The national committee can override the regional's rankings but it doesn't happen often.

If both teams finish as expected, I'm not sure why the National would override the Regional. There just won't be cause as the two teams will be close by criteria. Hard to make a case of an egregious mistake when the difference is paper thin.
#69
Quote from: BSCpanthers on November 02, 2023, 09:17:10 AM
BSC has now asked the city if Birmingham to help, which I think they will get more help from the city then they would from the state.  The city understands exactly what BSC does for Birmingham and the neighborhood that it sits in.  Hopefully, if the city steps up, it will propel the state into also stepping up. 

https://www.cbs42.com/news/birmingham-southern-college-seeks-financial-help-from-the-city/

We aren't dead yet, just hope this is a good sign of things to come.  BSC needs to offer Birmingham City School students scholarship opportunities for this.

No. I'm pretty sure B-SC is dead. Someone just keeps putting the paddles on hoping to find a jolt that can bring it back to life. I hope they find a way to finish out the school year, but if I was anyone but a senior, I would have all my transfer paperwork done and submitted to multiple schools by now for Spring Term if possible, Fall 2024 at worst. No way I'm coming back to go through another year of will they/won't they b.s. At this point, I think B-SC is doing a disservice to the student body by not having an answer.

They've already asking Birmingham for money, it was part of the original bridge funding proposal. They asked Birmingham for a pittance and couldn't get a commitment. Now they need a lot more than a pittance.
#70
I think you are looking at a toss-up here. If these two teams get paired together, and I agree that's likely even if it shouldn't happen, both have solid cases for hosting. There is simply no way to know, ahead of time, which of the criteria the committee will rely on to make that final decision.
#71
Men's soccer / Re: D3Boards.Com Soccer Top 20 Fan Poll
November 01, 2023, 03:30:51 PM
We have our full slate of voters back again this week. Thankful to all of them for the work they continue to put in!

Remarkably stable. You have to get all the way to 13th before you find a team that moved more than 2 spots. Bowdoin is the biggest drop for the week, St. Olaf or Otterbein the big gainers.

Kenyon at 16 is the last school to appear on all 8 ballots, and Christopher Newport at 17 is the first to appear on fewer than 8 ballots. That is pretty deep in the poll for consensus, which is why there is lot of stability at the top.

Colorado College with a 4th place vote, and a 24th place vote, has the widest dispersion. Only one team that doesn't appear on all 8 ballots has a vote in the Top 10, Christopher Newport.


D3Boards.com Soccer Fan Poll Games as of 10/29/2023
National Top 25




























Rank
School
Points
Weekly Change
Voter Breakdown
1
Messiah (8)
200
0
1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
2
Mary Washington
188
0
2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 2
3
Middlebury
183
0
3, 2, 3, 5, 5, 2, 2, 3
4
Connecticut College
164
0
4, 4, 4, 10, 8, 5, 5, 4
5
Amherst
161
1
5, 10, 5, 4, 4, 9, 4, 6
6
North Central (IL)
151
1
6, 5, 6, 16, 2, 6, 7, 9
7
Franklin and Marshall
140
-2
8, 9, 12, 3, 6, 8, 9, 13
T8
Cortland State
122
1
10, 7, 8, 8, 10, 21, 17, 5
T8
Montclair State
122
2
7, 12, 9, 14, 11, 10, 12, 11
10
Tufts
118
2
9, 23, 13, 7, 9, 11, 6, 12
11
Carleton
105
2
17, 11, 14, 20, 12, 13, 8, 8
12
Calvin
102
-1
12, 6, 7, 24, 7, 14, 19, 17
13
St. Olaf
97
4
19, 14, 10, 11, 16, 19, 15, 7
T14
Colorado College
94
1
24, 8, 15, 13, 17, 4, 23, 10
T14
Emory
94
-6
15, 17, 11, 9, 25, 7, 10, 20
16
Kenyon
77
2
18, 16, 16, 19, 14, 12, 20, 16
17
Christopher Newport
61
-1
11, 21, 6, 20, 11
18
Chicago
55
4
16, 18, 12, 15, 21, 19
19
Oneonta State
52
2
14, 20, 17, 13, 18, 22
20
UW-Platteville
45
3
15, 22, 15, 20, 16, 23
21
Bowdoin
42
-7
13, 22, 22, 13, 18
22
Otterbein
35
---
22, 17, 17, 25, 14
23
Redlands
33
-4
13, 18, 14
24
Mount Union
29
-4
19, 15, 15
25
Washington College
23
---
22, 21, 20, 18

Also Receiving Votes:
Pacific Lutheran (21) , Trinity (TX) (15) , Lynchburg (10) , MSOE (9) , Washington and Lee (9) , Case Western Reserve (8) , Kean (8) , Ohio Wesleyan (7) , Texas Lutheran (6) , Brockport State (5) , Babson (3) , Lebanon Valley (2) , Rochester (2) , John Carroll (1) , Manchester (1)

Newly Ranked: Otterbein, Washington College
Dropped Out: Babson (Prev:24), Lynchburg (Prev:25)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 25 = 25th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: Mid-Atlantic Fan, Coach Jeff, PaulNewman, Paclassic89, SimpleCoach, College Soccer Observer, Gregory Sager, FGGrizzliesGrad
#72
Quote from: cush on November 01, 2023, 10:39:58 AM
If BSC could collect 1/3 the $45 million it says has been pledged for awhile that should buy them at least another year of operation to further fundraise. They could also try to go back to the state legislature but I suspect the governor is also against any state aid so she probably would veto anything passed next spring.

Only if they were fully released funds for the operating budget, which donations almost never are. They are likely endowment contributions.
#73
Quote from: y_jack_lok on November 01, 2023, 09:16:42 AM
According to the X/Twitter post linked on the previous page, here's how Hansen has Region 3:

Trinity (TX)
Randolph-Macon
Hardin-Simmons
Bridgewater
Berry
Howard Payne
Hampden-Sydney
__________________________

Maryville
Huntingdon
Belhaven

That's a lot of love for the ODAC. And apparently has UMHB somewhere in the second 10 in the region.

With 3 losses... and R-MC still ahead, I'm just not sure how H-SC makes that list. Presumably they are going to finish the season 6-4. None of those 3 losses are bad, Wabash is 6-1 in D3 play, Bridgewater is 6-2, W&L is 6-2. And all 3 losses were close, but I just think there are better options for that last spot, especially since all 3 losses were home games for H-SC. Not that it really matters who is in that 7th spot except for Regional Rankings, and of course Hansen has nothing to do with those except as an indication.

It will really help R-MC if at least one of the other ODAC squads makes the Regional Rankings. Otherwise they will have 0 RROs. When W&L went undefeated in 2015 with 0 RROs they got sent to Thomas More. I don't think the Committee would put an undefeated R-MC on the road, but if you can't show you played at least one other Regionally Ranked team, it's going to be much tougher to justify that home game.

Especially since R-MC's SOS is going to be less than stellar. Currently 92nd. Those OOC's.... N.C. Wes might give you .500, but with M'ville and Huntingdon still to come 1-1 seems a stretch, Catholic at 3-5 could go 1-1 or 2-0, Wilkes is looking better after a horrendous start, but Juniata is not good. And the less said about Southern Virginia the better. With Belhaven and Maryville to go, 1-9 is very likely.
#74
I don't think there was a solid plan. As I put above, the school wanted/needed a grant. The loan was a last compromise.

I don't think it was ever feasible to pay back. I suspect B-SC basically wanted the loan so they could stay open and hopefully go fundraise. And if it worked where they were cashflow positive maybe they made token payments forever to the state or maybe they found some political backing to have it forgiven eventually. But the loan was, literally, a last chance worst option just to keep doors open long enough to say they had support to make fundraising viable and keep tuition coming in.

I doubt there was ever a logical, believable plan for them to pay it back. I suspect they submitted a wishful thinking plan, assuming the legislation was a rubber stamp, and the Treasurer, who hated everything about this, blew it up. One word in the legislation gave him the ability, and he took it.
#75
I'd imagine they will get a teach out arrangement. Montevallo would probably get on board with that.