TOP 25

Started by short, July 11, 2008, 10:56:29 PM

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SaintsFAN


Jon's
Hopkins??  I thought you were an officer of higher learning, has_been??  Must be teaching in South Central Los Angeles and NOT Encino! 
AMC Champs: 1991-1992-1993-1994-1995
HCAC Champs: 2000, 2001
PAC Champs:  2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
Bridge Bowl Champs:  1990-1991-1992-1993-1994-1995-2002-2003-2006-2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 (SERIES OVER)
Undefeated: 1991, 1995, 2001, 2009, 2010, 2015
Instances where MSJ quit the Bridge Bowl:  2

dc_has_been

Quote from: dc_has_been on October 08, 2008, 11:38:04 AM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 07, 2008, 05:13:27 PM
DC: Johns Hopkins also lost to Moravian by 23 points. Minor detail.

Are these rankings or standings? Do we punish a team for losing to someone better than them? No. That is what's expected. They just proved the poll was right; we don't then take our fixed poll and go out and break it.
First of all the Jons Hopkins statement was sarcastic & second, no a team shouldn't be punished for losing to someone better than them, but reward by moving up 5 spots b/c they played the better team tough?  That was the only part that I was confused about.   
SaintsFan- Yes I forgot an h in Johns, and did not add an apostrophe.  Also, I am an educator of higher learning in Los Angeles & would take those students over students from Kentucky any day.
"If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging."
Will Rogers
"If God had wanted man to play soccer, he wouldn't have given us arms."
Mike Ditka

K-Mack

Quote from: hscoach on October 08, 2008, 11:23:48 AM
Quote from: HSC85 on October 08, 2008, 09:10:03 AM
Keith,

If you go back to previous years in evaluating Hampden- Sydney then I think you should go back and look at other teams in the poll as well that were one and done in the playoffs last year.  Last year one player made a huge difference in the separation of Wesley and Hampden Sydney.  It was the defensive end #92.  He was the most disruptive force of their defense and HSC did not adjust or couldn't adjust to that player. 

I thought the polls this year are for 2008.  I have posted before about the appearance of the D3 poll voters voting for teams that were in the pre-season top 25 or have had previous good years over teams that are having excellent years in 2008.  I have read the arguements that Hampden- Sydney is 5 - 0 against teams that are 8 - 16.  Well Trinity is 4 - 0 against a group of teams that are 3 - 15. 

I am not suggesting that Hampden-Sydney be ranked higher, I am suggesting that you stick to ranking teams in 2008 on 2008 performance.  The season is half over for many teams.  Personally, I don't think that Hampden Sydney should be ranked as high as 24.  There are excellent teams in Division III all over the country.  Hampden- Sydney has been inconsistent in the margin of victory against what appears to be a weak schedule.  When Josh Simpson comes back from his injury then the team may get some more complete game performances like the Guilford game. 

Thank you for your patience for my rambling.  I appreciate all that you and the D3football.com do to promote division III football.



But you're forgetting that each season isn't played in a vacuum.  Early in the season, before teams get a chance to completely prove their worth (or lack thereof) on the field, the historical significance of the program means a lot. 

Even though Mount Union's opponents to date sport only a 6-10 overall record (2-2 St John Fisher, 0-4 Ohio Northern, 2-2 Muskingum and 2-2 Baldwin Wallace), where do you think they should be ranked?  About 15th since they don't have any "good wins"?. 

Just be thankful the Top 25 ranking has NOTHING to do with who gets a shot at winning a national championship! 

hscoach makes a couple of great points.

In the absence of other more recent data, I think we would be foolish as voters not to acknowledge what we already know, whether it took place in 2008 or not.

Now, the relevance of using a detail from a previous season is only a small sliver of the total picture, and can easily be outweighed by a more recent happening. For instance, Wesley beat Muhlenberg head to head in last season's playoffs, but because of Wesley's loss this season, I'm sure every ballot has Muhlenberg higher.

Some people even use that 'more recent, more relevant' theory when voting, as in results from Week 10 of the same season are weighted more heavily than ones from Week 4.

Polling is not a perfect science, it's more like the English language ... there are times when the rules apply, and then there are times when even though the rules clearly say put i before e, we spell it 'receive.' (Let me know if I trailed off into copy nerddom there ... point is the rules make sense a lot of the time but need breaking other times.)

The bottom line is a poll is an collection of opinions, and as hard as we try to base everything on data (thanks for noticing retagent), there are times when, say, a preseason poll ranks St. John's higher than Bethel even though Bethel won the last h2h matchup and brings back more starters or whatever ... People sometimes look at polling the way they do betting, in the 'ride the trend until it proves you wrong' sense.

And hscoach's other point, one that's frequently repeated on this site, is that we're glad the top 25 functions only as a best estimation of the strongest teams, and does not serve to actually award anybody the championship or a playoff spot or anything of that nature.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
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and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

theoriginalupstate

Does SJF get booted from the top 25 this week?

dc_has_been

Quote from: Upstate on October 11, 2008, 06:55:44 PM
Does SJF get booted from the top 25 this week?
They played a team rated higher then them & played them tough.  They'll probably move up a few spots instead.
"If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging."
Will Rogers
"If God had wanted man to play soccer, he wouldn't have given us arms."
Mike Ditka

Pat Coleman

Dunno about that. They lost at home, plus it's the third loss, not the first. I'm guessing you were probably being a smart-ass with your response but in case you truly don't understand the difference, here you go.

Ranked three spots apart, not 18.
Lost at home, not on the road.
Third loss, not first.
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Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

HScoach

I'm curious to see where Capital ends up.  That's a pretty good football team that ran into an absolute buzzsaw in Alliance today.

I'm guess around 10-12th would be about right.
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

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#142
Quote from: hscoach on October 11, 2008, 08:24:04 PM
I'm curious to see where Capital ends up.  That's a pretty good football team that ran into an absolute buzzsaw in Alliance today.

I'm guess around 10-12th would be about right.


Yeah...from #4 to #10-12 in the ACFA poll!

I guess that Capital will fall no farther than to 9th and, more likely, no worse than 7th.

pg04

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 11, 2008, 08:34:39 PM
Quote from: hscoach on October 11, 2008, 08:24:04 PM
I'm curious to see where Capital ends up.  That's a pretty good football team that ran into an absolute buzzsaw in Alliance today.

I'm guess around 10-12th would be about right.


Yeah...from #4 to #10-12 in the ACFA poll!

I guess that Capital will fall no farther than to 9th and, more likely, no worse than 7th.

Maybe third  ;)

dc_has_been

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 11, 2008, 07:34:38 PM
Dunno about that. They lost at home, plus it's the third loss, not the first. I'm guessing you were probably being a smart-ass with your response but in case you truly don't understand the difference, here you go.

Ranked three spots apart, not 18.
Lost at home, not on the road.
Third loss, not first.
I prefer sarcastic Pat, but hey you are always entitled to your opinion. 

I'm guessing SJF & Augsburg will drop out & two of the three: Ithaca, Franklin, or Curry move up into the top 25.  I would like to see Trine leap frog some teams & get in b/c they are an awesome story thus far.
"If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging."
Will Rogers
"If God had wanted man to play soccer, he wouldn't have given us arms."
Mike Ditka

K-Mack

That's interesting, this convo ... I grappled with where to drop Capital if at all and what to do with SJF.

Long story short, I think the nature of the Capital loss meant they had to fall some. It was the same logic I used when SJF didn't perform all that well. It's one thing to lose to Mount Union, it's another to be pretty well dominated. Not that either is unexpected, but maybe Capital could've held its spot in a close loss.

As for SJF, it is loss No. 3, at some point you have to say 'OK, this team isn't getting it done, I can't keep giving them free passes.' But on the other hand, they've played Mount Union, Ithaca, Hartwick and Salisbury ... which is four teams better than any some top 25 teams have played. If SJF switched schedules with W&J or Case Western or some others, how would their record looked? Is there any way we could estimate what would happen if SJF were to face one of those teams h2h?

In the end I dropped SJF out of my top 25, and I don't know if anyone would much disagree with that. But they went toe-to-toe with Salisbury ... moving the Gulls up to the mid-teens and SJF out doesn't seem accurate, even though it seems right. (make any sense?)

I think I'll write more in ATN about the connections we have to follow now by h2h results ... those ones that are so confusing we don't learn much.

Also contemplated Trine at the 25 spot FWIW, but they missed by a hair.

As far as teams dropping out, seems like a long way for Redlands to go from high teens to out, and Occidental from zero votes to ranked, but I didn't have a problem replacing one with the other ... at least among the group of teams I'm voting for. I didn't automatically slot Oxy in where Redlands was. Redlands seems to be a different team without their stud QB, I think it's OK to adjust accordingly. Same with Salisbury having Chandler back.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
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and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

dc_has_been

Wow?  Based on this weeks poll, I'm even more confused on how the top 25 voting works.  I do understand there are over 200 teams in DIII & there isn't that much media coverage, but Carleton, Occidental, & Linfield?  I know Occidental beat Redlands & all, but then I was right about Trine getting into the top 25 considering they beat the #14 team in the country at the time.
"If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging."
Will Rogers
"If God had wanted man to play soccer, he wouldn't have given us arms."
Mike Ditka

HScoach

With so little cross-regional play (and in some cases like the OAC with only 1 non-conference game) in the regular season, it's really hard to get a handle on teams without looking at the history of them individually and their conference as a whole. 

SJF has proven over the last few years that they're easily Top 10 material, so that's why it takes 3 losses before they're completely out of the Top 25.  And exactly why Trine is struggling to break in though they've played really well.  Without a lot of cross-conference or cross-regional games, it takes time to break the preconceived ideas of what a team is and will be.

Taking K-Mack's point a few steps further, it's really hard decide where to vote undefeated teams from historically weak conferences.  I would expect the bottom 4 teams in the WIAC are still in the top 30% of all Division 3 teams.  I know La Crosse is really struggling and is winless, but does anyone really think that Case Western or Trine would actually beat La Crosse on the field?  I don't. 

I'd put 1-4 Ohio Northern or 2-3 Baldwin Wallace from the OAC against Case or Trine and like my chances too.
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

dc_has_been

hscoach- thank you for the break down, you & K-Mack do make this a little bit easier to understand.  I am just questioning some of the changes. The main one being Occidental considering their track record.
I'm sure there are a lot of teams w/ unfarvorable records that are much better than teams in the top 25.  I'm not sure if I agree on ONU or BW being able to beat CWRU or Trine, but SJF for sure. 
"If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging."
Will Rogers
"If God had wanted man to play soccer, he wouldn't have given us arms."
Mike Ditka

repete

hscoach,

You're right on. Seems many years have these teams that rise from the unknown, but then fade early in the playoffs. And every year there are teams from power leagues like the OAC and WIAC that finish middle of the pack and would dominate the less competitive conferences.

I understand why Pat and crew did it, but I miss having the conference postseason records on the front page (static that it is) because it gave you a quick hint about conference strength (if used in context with other info.)

In this case, for example, you've got a team from a league with an 0-8 postseason mark, beating one from a 1-10 league. While it's dangerous to put too much weight on history, teams from these kinds of leagues rarely seem to improve so quickly that they can finish with the elite in one season.