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Messages - bethelguy

#16
Greg - I'd be interested in seeing the resumes of the Pool Cs from last year (QOWI, RegRanks, RegWin%, etc.)  Is there a place I could find that info?

Would RegWin% be good enough to trump a lowered QOWI assuming SJU loses to UST then loses in Semis and a BU or GAC wins the tourney and AQ?  Maybe they'd still be one of the best 19 remaining, but 3 from the MIAC would be more than we deserve.
#17
I disagree with Drake - Currently I think they are considered a lock as a Pool C (pabegg's complex ranking system on the Pool C message board has them as #1 for Pool C right now). 

The question does assume they lose 2 more games which will negatively affect their QOWI and RegRecord, but their QOWI and RR currently are very good.  Their overall record is questionable but that factor does not weigh as heavily QOWI and RRec/RegRank.  3 of their losses do not count regionally (D2 loss to SCSU, Ursinus in MidAt and PennSt-Ber from the Great Lakes). 

QOWI of 10.555 right now is very good and even with 2 losses (assuming both are to UST) SJU gets in.  But if they drop one before UST or lose to Bethel in the tournament they move to the top of the dreaded bubble.
#18
I agree with MM on Schnettler and would take it yet another step forward saying that I bet there isn't a better SG in D3 right now.  Nobody gets his shot off that quick and retains the accuracy that he does.  Most of the game on Saturday he was unguardable, it didn't matter who was guarding him or what the defensive positioning was he was unguardable.

He is 4th in the nation for 3's per game and 11th for 3 pnt FG% (while taking 40+ more shots than anybody in top 10).  And these numbers do not include his 7/9 from behind the line on Saturday.

Nobody ranked ahead of him for 3's made per game shoot anywhere near his % and nobody with greater % make as many per game as he does.  Statistically it would be hard to argue there is a better SG in the country. 
#19
UST shot 70% in the first half and Schnettler was unguardable.  That is the story line for this game.  That and the refs caused Bethel to lose of course. 

Seriously, UST put on an impressive performance. Bethel did battle back in the 2nd half but a 27 point half time deficit was too much to overcome.  I haven't seen the Tommies play this year prior to that game so I'd be interested to know where this ranks for the Tommies this year.  I would imagine they played one of their better games today (some attributed to poor D by the Royals and some attributed to UST's overall game). 

They came ready to play today and put a hurt on Bethel.  They are not unbeatable but when they play like they played today it might take 100 points to beat them. 

PS - Dwyer is much better than I gave him credit for.  He was more than just adequate on both ends of the floor.  When BU made a run in the 2nd half and cut it to 12 it was when Dwyer was on the bench.  Ike was as well but I think Dwyer was the factor for that stretch of BU's run.
#20
SHOOT, I was hoping for the "Back from the Dead" award this week, it has to go to MM!

Now with this recent talk of Dwyer I have greater anticipation to watch the PG matchup on Saturday.  Laugen has really improved and is quietly becoming one of the best PGs in the conference.
#21
enough about that game.  BU won (or was given the game by the refs) whatever.

lets talk about the hottest team in the league vs. the best team in the league (sorry Johnnies, but they are defending champs, in 1st place, ranked and have the MIAC POY). 

I think the only way to beat UST is stop one of the big 3 and seriously slow down a 2nd.  Can BU do that?

Schnettler vs. Madsen? Strom? (I don't know who guarded him the 1st game, I would put Strom on him personally)
Keating vs. Meadowcroft - arguably the 2 best PFs in the league
Rosefelt vs. Moberg - probably the best Cs in the league too
Dwyer vs. Laugen - Dwyer is underrated but I think advantage BU here
Robinson vs. Strom/Madsen

If BU can play their big 3 to a draw, I like the Royal's bench and other 2 starters better. 
If UST gets 78% of their points from BS/MK/IR again then my money is on the Tommies.

in fact here is the question...  What % of points does BU need to hold the big 3 to in order to win?

On the season they account for 70.5% 
#22
I was at the BU/SJU game (and I am rather bias).  I'm not trying to jump on the bandwagon and start posting like madd, but here is what I saw last night. 

While I thought the refs were bad, I did NOT feel throughout the game that either team gained an advantage.  And I was shocked to see the free throw shooting difference.  It was a combination of things that led to that alarming statistic.  1.  The BU big men were more aggressive especialy Moberg who got to the line while being fouled in the paint which is understandable.  2.  SJU was shooting jump shots especially in the 2nd half, jump shots rarely lead to free throws.  3.  SJU had to foul the last couple min to try and get back into the game (BU shot 10 FTs in the last 2 min).

Quoting sju4life - "Im typically not an advocate of blaming refs especially in a 12 point game but with SJU shooting 47% for the game and only having 9 turnovers thats typically going to win ball games in the MIAC."

That is true but letting the other team score 53, shoot nearly 60% (57% from 3) and out rebound you 21-13 in the 2nd half you will lose that game.  And that has nothing to do with the refs and free throw shots attempted.  In all reality SJU played no defense for the last 20 min.  BU's D in the 1st half was not very good but they were clearly the more aggressive team on both ends and owned the 2nd half by 18 points.

Finally - hats off to the BU big men.  As stated Moberg was a force in the 2nd half and while Meadowcroft struggled to score most of the game he came up huge with 4 2nd half offensive boards and Moberg's 3 2nd half blocks down the stretch were the difference for the Royals.

I respect the SJU basketball program and they are having a very good season.  The playoffs may be a very different story, but last night Bethel beat the Johnnies.
#23
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Top 25 talk
January 30, 2007, 02:47:40 PM
I'll share my thoughts on UST.  If they were playing a 3 on 3 tournament I would pick them to beat absolutely anybody (accounting for 52.4 ppg).  The rest of their team are pieces that fit nicely into the overall puzzle. 

As compared to recent MIAC teams that have been successful UST is not as deep but as stated their top 3 are better than any of the recent GAC teams or even Augsburg when they had Devean George playing.  Their offense compliments their stars very well and everyone plays solid team D.  Comparing them to the GAC team that lost to Williams in the Final several years ago is tough.  UST's top 3 is certainly better but 4-10 would heavily favor GAC. 

C - Isaac Rosefelt - D1 transfer who was MIAC MVP last season.  Rosefelt is lanky 6'9" who averages 17 ppg, almost 10 rpg and 2 blocks per game.  I'd wager that he is All-American material.
PF - Mike Keating - another D1 transfer who was rather average last season but has emerged this year to be a force (16.4 ppg and 9 rpg).
SG - Bryan Schnettler - is the school's and probably will be the MIAC's all time leader in 3 pointers.  Bryan is quick with an even quicker shot.  When he is on he does not miss regardless of your defensive positioning.  19 ppg including 4 3's per game.

After that it gets thinner but these guys know their roles.

Lonnie Robinson is a JR who hardly played last season.  But is averaging 8 ppg this year.
PG - Andy Dwyer -
PG - Brett Tuma - talented soph

If they have a weakness it is at the PG spot.  The Tommies graduated a talented PG and their floor leader from last season, along with a starting F and their 6 and 7 guys off bench.  Depth is always talked about as an issued for the Tommies but it rarely seems to actually matter (as witnessed as UST outlasted Bethel 2 OT a couple weeks ago). 

Outside of their big 3, they don't have anybody who can beat you on their own (as Wonka mentioned).  But so far nobody has been able to slow down more than 1 at a time and that has made the very tough to beat.  GAC holds Keating to 7 but Schnettler/Rosefelt combine for 44, that is a familiar story for this team.

They will be a matchup problem for anybody they face in the tournament.  River Falls took them to OT and LAX beat them, but remember that Rosefelt did not play in those games.  No doubt in my mind that Rosefelt is playing and they dominate RF and do not lose to LAX.

I hope this paints some sort of a picture...

#24
BU with big road win as they start their run through the MIAC gauntlet (GAC, Car, SJU, UST). 

72-66

#25
52-33 Bethel up over SMU with 12:00 left.  Not the sexiest game in the league today but an update nonetheless.
#26
GAC / BU did not disappoint (unless you were a Royal fan).  It was a great game with both teams hitting big shots throughout the 2nd half.  I thought the game was poorly officiated but in no way account the BU loss to officials.  Although I thought Wittwer clearly traveled twice on that last possession (picked up dribble while standing on 3 point line, switched pivot feet, then drug the 2nd pivot foot ending up 6 ft from the rim).  That is of course my biased opinion and like I said was not the reason for the GAC W.  BU had their chances to take care of things prior to that possession.

In my opinion BU lost for 2 reasons.  They went away from the post for the last 12 min of the game.  And down the stretch GAC was able to get about 4 easy buckets on post to post screens that BU got caught up on.  Those post to post screens were less successful when Strom got back in at the other forward spot.

I completely agree with Drake that Laugen is improving rapidly and quickly becoming one of the best PGs in the league.  I think that Madsen is struggling recently and forcing this issue a little bit.  Hopefully with Laugen being more of a focal point that will free up Madsen again. 

No time to feel sorry for yourself after that loss, Carleton tomorrow.
#27
Quote from: piperinsider on December 03, 2006, 09:23:53 PM
Woke up at 10 a.m. still "under the weather" in Kato. Get back to Hutch to find out the Pipes score 89 and still lose. Three more stops. That's all it would've took.

The run-and-gun doesn't win titles in the MIAC. UST has an incredible offense, but they also play some defense once in a while. GAC usually has the league's top defense and they win titles. The teams that don't play defense, don't finish in the top 2 or 3. That includes SJU, BET and HAM.

PI - in principal I agree with you, but that 89 is deceiving.  Hamline scored nearly a 1/3 of their total points in the last 5:30.  Much of that was comlacency, free throws and easy baskets due to turnovers.  When the game was more "on the line" BU did play D and made things tough for all of the Hamline scorers (except DeRock's 17 1st half points >:().  35 min of defense would have been (and SHOULD have been) 40 but it is hard to fight complacency when you are up 21 with under 5:30 and had been up by 14+ for most of the previous 35 min. 

This is a good defensive team.  Bethel's offense will lead to more points for opponents simply because they'll have more possessions.  But currently I think the biggest thing leading to opponents points right now is Bethel's turnovers, which are leading to easy baskets. 

vs. Hamline, 26 turnovers and 26 points off turnovers
vs. UM-Morris, 18 TOs and 22 points off turnovers

We'll know more tonight after they face a team that traditionally brings down BU's shooting % and forces teams to play defense. 
#28
B34 - you are right about the missing quotent in my Moss = Foster equation was talent.  But Moss has lost a couple of steps so I'm not too far off.  I saw Hamline play several times last year and at times Foster can really dominate.  Then a call doesn't go his way or he thinks its more important to return a hip check on a box out than it is to actually get the rebound and his game spirals out of control.  I've seen him play really well then I've seen him get tossed from a gym after he was tossed (or fouled out I can't remember) from a game.

The real Moss comparison is that he seemed to view himself as a leader on the team.  I don't know if he is or if others share the same view, but someone that volatile cannot be a leader on your team and if he is then he has the power to drag everyone down.
#29
Quote from: columbianmaffia on October 24, 2006, 02:27:51 PM

Drake was in for Beste last year, Beste graduated the year previous to last year. Forkrud is the only loss for CAR, a big loss too, but should still be good with all the rest of the experience returning from their co-MIAC championship last year

right, I didn't mean to imply that both of those transitions are happening this year.  I was trying to point out that by the time one F is graduating there is another to step in, so the loss of Beste last year was replaced by Drake, then the loss of Fork this year is replaced by a more experienced Johnson. 

The loss of Fork isn't as great, but Johnson a year better doesn't really propell the team to a step forward because he just replaces Forkrud's production.  Which really puts the pressure on their guards to be the catalyst to improving and staying ahead of the teams on their heals.
#30
I love this time of year!   Football is getting interesting and more importantly basketball will be tipping off real games before you know it.

Solid info by Drake (as usual), I wish I knew more about some of the incoming FY kids, but I'll take what you say as good info.  Here are my initial thoughts on the MIAC contenders this year (in NO particular order, this is not a prediction)...

UST - I think what they lost is greater than people realize.  Sweeney was the heart of that team last year and what little depth they had is gone (Schimek, Weaver, Peterson).  The Ike/BS combo is VERY good and Keating is good as well but questions at PG and even Fritz needs at least 1 competent sub.
Ham - this will be a very popular pick to challenge UST, as they should be.  These guys were in position to win a handful of games that they lost due to inexperience.  Their young guys from last year were the real deal and the Pipers should have their best year in recent memory.  Their biggest hurdle to overcome is not letting Foster become a distraction, he is the Randy Moss of this team.
Bet - there has been very little talk about the D1 transfer in the post.  BU lost a bunch of experienced SRs but this will open up some minutes for some very talented young guys in Vavra, Madsen, Laugen.  And of course do not forget Meadowcroft who has to be one of the few who may challenge Ike for POY. 
Car - Johnson and Drake will be a nice combo that will be tough to defend.  But it seems as though the Knigts graduate one good forward as they bring in someone new.  Beste out - Drake in, Forkrud out - Johnson in.  Their shot at winning the league depends on Phillips/Kootsikas in my opinion.
SJU - The johnnies only lose Henrichs, but that is a LOT and I don't think they can replace his rebounding.  They return a lot of playmakers, but Ohme needs to step up his game and really be the leader if they want to win the league.
GAC - you can never count out the Gusties from contention.  Sowden/Wittwer/Olson are solid and you know Hansen will have these guys ready to play.  TeBrake is a big loss but Wittwer is capable of stepping into his shoes and outperforming.
Con - has an outside shot at competing for the top spot, but the losses of Eckhoff/Miller/Dixon will be greater than any improvement from their young core of talent.  Without a Sr. on this year's roster 2006-07 might be preparation for a run in 2007-08.

I think that is 6, maybe 7 teams that actually have a legit shot at winning the MIAC this year.  I may be the only one who would put Bethel in that group (D1 post may be most significant newcomer in the league), but even 5 teams with a legit shot is more than most seasons.  Should be a very fun year of MIAC basketball.

STO, SMU, Mac all return most of their contributors and all have a shot at playoffs but going from 8,7 and 6 wins respectively to 17 or 18 conference wins is really hard and almost unheard of in the MIAC.  They are solid teams that are capable of winning a lot of games but I see their chances of winning the league as slim.  And Auggie may be better but they have no shot of finishing first.