2019 Pool C

Started by MRMIKESMITH, October 21, 2019, 03:03:33 PM

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Baldini

Good stuff, thanks for the work.

Agree that St. Thomas may well be blocked from being ranked.

USee

I think the West Rankings could look like this:
1. UWW
2. Chapman
3. Redlands
4. Central
5 St Johns
6. Wartburg
7. Bethel
8. Linfield
9. UWO
10 Martin Luther
11. Monmouth/STT

I think the committee is avoiding the STT v WIAC situation and also didn't rank Monmouth, who is clearly better than STT on all the criteria, in part because they benefit from Grinnell's forfeit thus not getting their terrible SOS counted as part of their number. But a win vs SNC this week could put Monmouth in at the bottom, which would be big for Wartburg and Wheaton (for 1 seed consderation)

North:

1. Mt Union
2. Wheaton
3. North Central
4. Hope
5. John Carroll
6. Aurora
7. Wabash
8. Hanover
9. OWU
10. Baldwin Wallace

E.115

In no way would I want it to play out like this, but would Carnegie Mellon have a Pool C bid chance if they defeated Case Western Reserve (9-0)?

Best case scenario resume for then depending on how the other games end up..ending with a record of 8-2..

With wins over two Pool A league champs:
Case Western Reserve (9-1) - PAC Champ
MIT (8-2) - NEWMAC Champ

And wins over:
Washington & Jefferson 7-3
Westminster 7-3

Baldini

Quote from: E.115 on November 10, 2019, 08:54:56 PM
In no way would I want it to play out like this, but would Carnegie Mellon have a Pool C bid chance if they defeated Case Western Reserve (9-0)?

Best case scenario resume for then depending on how the other games end up..ending with a record of 8-2..

With wins over two Pool A league champs:
Case Western Reserve (9-1) - PAC Champ
MIT (8-2) - NEWMAC Champ

And wins over:
Washington & Jefferson 7-3
Westminster 7-3

It is probably safe to say that their is a zero percent chance of Carnegie Mellon making the 32 team playoff this year under any scenario.

I hope that did not sound rude or harsh because I did not mean for it to sound that way.

E.115

^ No not all all ... just seemed intriguing to think they potentially could have two regular season wins over two Pool A, conference champs (which I'm guessing there not many examples of this in the country) and not be in the Playoffs.

With that said, I hope they lose against my CWRU Spartans.

tf37

Quote from: USee on November 10, 2019, 07:13:18 PM
I think the West Rankings could look like this:
1. UWW
2. Chapman
3. Redlands
4. Central
5 St Johns
6. Wartburg
7. Bethel
8. Linfield
9. UWO
10 Martin Luther
11. Monmouth/STT

I think the committee is avoiding the STT v WIAC situation and also didn't rank Monmouth, who is clearly better than STT on all the criteria, in part because they benefit from Grinnell's forfeit thus not getting their terrible SOS counted as part of their number. But a win vs SNC this week could put Monmouth in at the bottom, which would be big for Wartburg and Wheaton (for 1 seed consderation)

North:

1. Mt Union
2. Wheaton
3. North Central
4. Hope
5. John Carroll
6. Aurora
7. Wabash
8. Hanover
9. OWU
10. Baldwin Wallace

If we are just looking at the criteria, then Olivet should be ahead of B-W and OWU.

thunderdog

Quote from: USee on November 10, 2019, 07:13:18 PM
North:

1. Mt Union
2. Wheaton
3. North Central
4. Hope
5. John Carroll
6. Aurora
7. Wabash
8. Hanover
9. OWU
10. Baldwin Wallace

I'm thinking Olivet makes it into the next North rankings. Higher win % and higher SOS than Ohio Wesleyan. Not that I necessarily agree with it, but according to the criteria, especially the committee's emphasis on win%, seems likely to me.

thunderdog

Quote from: tf37 on November 10, 2019, 09:37:29 PM
If we are just looking at the criteria, then Olivet should be ahead of B-W and OWU.

Beat me by 42 seconds... ;D

wally_wabash

OWU will have a vRRO win over Denison when the RACs conference this week.  That may get them in there. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

hazzben

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 10, 2019, 09:54:20 PM
OWU will have a vRRO win over Denison when the RACs conference this week.  That may get them in there.

When does a vRRO result no longer qualify. Assume Ithaca drops out of RR after this week. But does the committee still consider Union's W a vRRO as they consider where to slot teams this week, since they are a RRO until the new Regional Ranking is done. But then in the final poll they aren't considered a vRRO any longer? Not sure if that made sense, but hopefully you get what I'm asking.

It's a lot muddier since they don't have the "once ranked always ranked" format any longer.

wally_wabash

Quote from: hazzben on November 10, 2019, 10:02:06 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 10, 2019, 09:54:20 PM
OWU will have a vRRO win over Denison when the RACs conference this week.  That may get them in there.

When does a vRRO result no longer qualify. Assume Ithaca drops out of RR after this week. But does the committee still consider Union's W a vRRO as they consider where to slot teams this week, since they are a RRO until the new Regional Ranking is done. But then in the final poll they aren't considered a vRRO any longer? Not sure if that made sense, but hopefully you get what I'm asking.

It's a lot muddier since they don't have the "once ranked always ranked" format any longer.

As I understand it...

This week's RRs (let's call them RR2) will harvest their vRRO data from last week's RR's (RR1).  So, Union is going to have a 1-0 vRRO on the data sheet this week. 

For the RR's done after Week 11's games (RR3), the vRRO data will come from RR2.  So after next week's games, Union is going to be back to 0-0 vRRO (assuming Ithaca or any other Liberty League team is not on RR2). 

The nat'l committee will do one more final set of rankings before they select and bracket Saturday night, taking into account the RR3 information.  Now, the the thing that I'm not entirely certain on here is if this final ranking essentially mines its vRRO data from RR2 and RR3, or just RR3.  As it has been explained to me, I think the final set that we see has both a look-back (RR2) and current (RR3) composition with the vRRO data- ultimately making RR1 the only set of published rankings that wind up not meaning much at all (aside from their contribution to RR2). 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Pat Coleman

Quote from: E.115 on November 10, 2019, 09:24:31 PM
^ No not all all ... just seemed intriguing to think they potentially could have two regular season wins over two Pool A, conference champs (which I'm guessing there not many examples of this in the country) and not be in the Playoffs.

Beating an unranked conference champion has no particular impact on playoff selection.
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hazzben

Thanks Wally, that makes sense

UfanBill

#313
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 10, 2019, 11:11:54 PM
Quote from: hazzben on November 10, 2019, 10:02:06 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 10, 2019, 09:54:20 PM
OWU will have a vRRO win over Denison when the RACs conference this week.  That may get them in there.

When does a vRRO result no longer qualify. Assume Ithaca drops out of RR after this week. But does the committee still consider Union's W a vRRO as they consider where to slot teams this week, since they are a RRO until the new Regional Ranking is done. But then in the final poll they aren't considered a vRRO any longer? Not sure if that made sense, but hopefully you get what I'm asking.

It's a lot muddier since they don't have the "once ranked always ranked" format any longer.

As I understand it...

This week's RRs (let's call them RR2) will harvest their vRRO data from last week's RR's (RR1).  So, Union is going to have a 1-0 vRRO on the data sheet this week. 

For the RR's done after Week 11's games (RR3), the vRRO data will come from RR2.  So after next week's games, Union is going to be back to 0-0 vRRO (assuming Ithaca or any other Liberty League team is not on RR2). 

The nat'l committee will do one more final set of rankings before they select and bracket Saturday night, taking into account the RR3 information.  Now, the the thing that I'm not entirely certain on here is if this final ranking essentially mines its vRRO data from RR2 and RR3, or just RR3.  As it has been explained to me, I think the final set that we see has both a look-back (RR2) and current (RR3) composition with the vRRO data- ultimately making RR1 the only set of published rankings that wind up not meaning much at all (aside from their contribution to RR2).

To those of you who want to denigrate Union, somehow feeling their opponents struggles after playing the Dutchmen should lower their seeding in the eyes of the committee let me say look at this "criteria".
Union has won 12 straight. 16 of 18, 23-6 after going 0-10 in 2015 for new coach Jeff Behrman and they've avenged 5 of those losses(they haven't played Cortland since). Last season they beat then ranked Husson, Springfield and quarter finalist RPI. This year they've beaten ranked Hobart and Ithaca. They are the Liberty League champions. I'd say that's pretty impressive. They've earned respect.
"You don't stop playing because you got old, you got old because you stopped playing" 🏈🏀⚾🎿⛳

wally_wabash

Apologies, UfanBill- I was only using Union there to illustrate the mechanics of vRRO results week over week in the regional rankings, not trying to make any judgements on their ranking or general quality.  Indeed, Union's turnaround is more than impressive.

Hang on to those Shoes this week!
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire