FB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

Started by Adam Sayer, December 24, 2006, 10:01:33 PM

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formerd3db

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 18, 2017, 03:55:01 PM
Heartbreaker for the Grizzlies. Wartburg scores first in OT... Franklin matches but goes for 2 and the ball is just a bit behind the receiver and off his hands. Wartburg survives 35-34.

Just watched that also on the video feed.  Gutsy call to go for it.  While I have no problem with that decision, personally, I would have kicked the PT and played for the 3rd OT.  Also, I think the play called was not a good one.  Some misdirection/play action would have been much better.  Touch loss for Franklin, lucky for Wartburg, but, overall a great playoff game.  No sure that Wartburg goes on after next, week, but as well all know, anything can happen.  Good season for Franklin; ouch for this last play.  :( 
"When the Great Scorer comes To mark against your name, He'll write not 'won' or 'lost', But how you played the game." - Grantland Rice

FCGrizzliesGrad

#6991
Quote from: GrizFan on November 18, 2017, 04:01:00 PM
FC chose not to take three easy kicks and it cost them!
I assume you're talking about the FG in the 3rd, FG in the 4th, and XP in OT... first off... not easy kicks at all.  Colligan was 3 of 6 for the year with a long of 25 yards... not exactly confident in his abilities.
I have no problem with the call in the 3rd. Still early and a season long kick into the wind? Not a chance.
4th quarter certainly should have kicked. Tie game in the 4th quarter with the wind at your back on slightly more than an extra point... take the points and the lead.
The OT call... I'm 50/50 on. Certainly could have called a better play though.
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GrizFan

Hindsight is 20/20 but that seems to be too much risk for a playoff game!

formerd3db

#6993
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 18, 2017, 04:10:28 PM
Quote from: GrizFan on November 18, 2017, 04:01:00 PM
FC chose not to take three easy kicks and it cost them!
I assume you're talking about the FG in the 3rd, FG in the 4th, and XP in OT... first off... not easy kicks at all.  Colligan was 3 of 6 for the year with a long of 25 yards... not exactly confident in his abilities.
I have no problem with the call in the 3rd. Still early and a season long kick into the wind? Not a chance.
4th quarter certainly should have kicked. Tie game in the 4th quarter with the wind at your back on slightly more than an extra point... take the points and the lead.
The OT call... I'm 50/50 on. Certainly could have called a better play though.

Actually, I was referring to the OT call.  While I am kind of 50/50 with it as you are, what I meant to say was then when it really comes down to it, were I the coach making the decision, I would have gone for the tie to remain playing for another OT period.
"When the Great Scorer comes To mark against your name, He'll write not 'won' or 'lost', But how you played the game." - Grantland Rice

D O.C.

What formerd3db said.
Franklin worked and had a fine season.
No guts, no glory.

HansenRatings

Analytically speaking, the general consensus is to go for 2 and the win if
A) You're the underdog
B) You're on the road

Franklin was both, although they didn't play like much of an underdog. The thinking is that the more opportunities you give the favorite/home team, the more likely they are to pull away. Good decision, questionable play call (though I did hold my breath for about 10 seconds waiting for a DPI before I celebrated). I wonder if the quick snap threw off a little bit of the timing, because the throw wasn't great.

I was impressed by the Franklin OL. I thought we were going to get more pressure on Burton, and didn't think Franklin would be able to run as well as they did.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

jamtod

Quote from: HansenRatings on November 20, 2017, 05:30:57 PM
Analytically speaking, the general consensus is to go for 2 and the win if
A) You're the underdog
B) You're on the road

Franklin was both, although they didn't play like much of an underdog. The thinking is that the more opportunities you give the favorite/home team, the more likely they are to pull away. Good decision, questionable play call (though I did hold my breath for about 10 seconds waiting for a DPI before I celebrated). I wonder if the quick snap threw off a little bit of the timing, because the throw wasn't great.

I was impressed by the Franklin OL. I thought we were going to get more pressure on Burton, and didn't think Franklin would be able to run as well as they did.

I could not find any D3 stats on two point conversions. NCAA.com indicates that the D1 rate has ranged from 34.3% (2014) to 47.1% (1970), which results in an expected point outcome of well under 1. I suspect D3 numbers might be higher, as scoring across the board is higher and the disparity between the haves and have nots is more significant. Extrapolating that to an expectation of success for Franklin against Wartburg is a bit of a leap though. Certainly, there are some situations or opponents where the odds of success on 2-pt conversion are well above 50% and some where it is much lower.

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: jamtoTommie on November 20, 2017, 05:40:28 PM
Quote from: HansenRatings on November 20, 2017, 05:30:57 PM
Analytically speaking, the general consensus is to go for 2 and the win if
A) You're the underdog
B) You're on the road

Franklin was both, although they didn't play like much of an underdog. The thinking is that the more opportunities you give the favorite/home team, the more likely they are to pull away. Good decision, questionable play call (though I did hold my breath for about 10 seconds waiting for a DPI before I celebrated). I wonder if the quick snap threw off a little bit of the timing, because the throw wasn't great.

I was impressed by the Franklin OL. I thought we were going to get more pressure on Burton, and didn't think Franklin would be able to run as well as they did.

I could not find any D3 stats on two point conversions. NCAA.com indicates that the D1 rate has ranged from 34.3% (2014) to 47.1% (1970), which results in an expected point outcome of well under 1. I suspect D3 numbers might be higher, as scoring across the board is higher and the disparity between the haves and have nots is more significant. Extrapolating that to an expectation of success for Franklin against Wartburg is a bit of a leap though. Certainly, there are some situations or opponents where the odds of success on 2-pt conversion are well above 50% and some where it is much lower.

And to keep perspective on the alternative to going for two - in D1 I'd imagine the XP is virtually a sure thing (over 90%?); at many D3 schools, the XP is FAR from guaranteed (don't know the quality of Franklin's kicker long term).

formerd3db

Mr. Ypsi:

I agree with you about the XP (i.e. PAT) in DIII. Our (Hope's) usually reliable kicker this year had an erratic year.  Still, I would have played it more safe and tried the PAT.  Also, I agree with HansenRatings, okay decision, but questionable play call. ::)

Switching topics for a moment, your former EMU, while not going to obtain a winning record this year, still had decent season, IMO.  If you look at their scores, they lost 4-5 games very close (including Kentucky), although we must admit that, overall, the MAC is not as good this year as it has been in recent years.  Still, I believe Creighton has them in the right direction.  Unless there is an implosion in the next couple of years, I think he will be around for some time (at least more than some of the more recent EMU Head Coaches in the past couple of decades).
"When the Great Scorer comes To mark against your name, He'll write not 'won' or 'lost', But how you played the game." - Grantland Rice

Mr. Ypsi

When talking about the coach of a non-Power5 team, you have to be careful what you wish for!  You don't want him to be bad, of course, but if he's TOO good you'll just lose him anyway - and you can't ALWAYS count on the next guy being another great up-and-comer. :(  Maybe the solution is a steady diet of 7-6, 8-5 seasons! ;)

Though that doesn't seem very satisfying either. ::) 

formerd3db

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 20, 2017, 06:29:53 PM
When talking about the coach of a non-Power5 team, you have to be careful what you wish for!  You don't want him to be bad, of course, but if he's TOO good you'll just lose him anyway - and you can't ALWAYS count on the next guy being another great up-and-comer. :(  Maybe the solution is a steady diet of 7-6, 8-5 seasons! ;)

Though that doesn't seem very satisfying either. ::)

For sure in all aspects you mention! 
"When the Great Scorer comes To mark against your name, He'll write not 'won' or 'lost', But how you played the game." - Grantland Rice

HansenRatings

Over the offseason, I scraped all of the plays from the 2016 season, but never got around to doing much with it. As far as 2pt conversions vs. PAT averages go, teams converted 44.3% of 2pt conversions last season, and 89.6% of PATs, which is essentially a wash when it comes to expected point value. Given that they were going into what appeared to be a decent wind, and that Franklin's kicker may have been below-average (just going by previous comments on here), I'm still confident going for 2 was the right call.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

FCGrizzliesGrad

Looking at stats, I believe Franklin was 4 for 4 on 2 point conversions this season before that final one. 68 of 70 on extra points (which I'll admit was better than I thought)
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jamtod

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 20, 2017, 10:50:36 PM
Looking at stats, I believe Franklin was 4 for 4 on 2 point conversions this season before that final one. 68 of 70 on extra points (which I'll admit was better than I thought)

How does Wartburg's defense compare to the other defenses that Franklin was successful against? The % statistics aren't as predictive as we'd like them to be, as I imagine a good number of 2 pt conversions during the year happen against lesser opponents where, legitimately, the odds of success on 2 is almost as good as hitting the EP.

FCGrizzliesGrad

Quote from: jamtoTommie on November 20, 2017, 10:56:02 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on November 20, 2017, 10:50:36 PM
Looking at stats, I believe Franklin was 4 for 4 on 2 point conversions this season before that final one. 68 of 70 on extra points (which I'll admit was better than I thought)

How does Wartburg's defense compare to the other defenses that Franklin was successful against? The % statistics aren't as predictive as we'd like them to be, as I imagine a good number of 2 pt conversions during the year happen against lesser opponents where, legitimately, the odds of success on 2 is almost as good as hitting the EP.
Surprisingly they were all against the three toughest opponents Franklin played in the regular season. Two against Thomas More, one against Butler, one against Rose-Hulman.
Football picker extraordinaire
5 titles: CCIW, NJAC
4x: ODAC:S
3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem